DXY 4Hour TF - July 13th, 2025DXY 7/13/2025
DXY 4hour Neutral Idea
Monthly - Bearish
Weekly - Bearish
Dailly - Bearish
4hour - Ranging
Keep in mind, we analyze and follow DXY more so as an indicator. The USD makes up for a large portion of trade so it makes sense to analyze it.
Going into this week we can see DXY made an attempt to push higher. Where it closed on Friday is a major zone around 98.000. We’re still majorly bearish on higher time frames so we will keep that in mind throughout this week.
As always, we will mark up two potential paths for this week, they are as follows:
Bullish Breakout - The two main zones we want to bring out attention to are 98.000 resistance and 97.500 support. We will have to wait until price action leaves this area to spot a high quality setup. Look for a convincing push above 98.000 resistance followed by a retest of 98.000 but as support. Look for a higher low to form with bullish confirmation to long on.
Bearish Continuation- Going bearish is still very possible we just need to clear 97.500 support first. Look for a break below 97.500 with a confirmed lower high and convincing bearish setups to short on.
DXY trade ideas
Forex Weekly Round-Up: DXY, GBPUSD, EURUSDKey Price Zones (DXY): 97.422 - 97.685
🟦 DXY (Dollar Index):
On paper, USD had a strong week:
🔹 Durable Goods smashed expectations (+8.6% vs 0.5%)
🔹 PMIs, GDP Price Index, and Jobless Claims came in solid
But the market ignored it:
🔻 Consumer Confidence disappointed (93.0 vs 99.4)
🏠 New Home Sales missed
🕊️ Fed Chair Powell stayed soft — no aggressive tightening talk
Result?
Despite strong fundamentals, DXY broke down, sweeping daily lows and printing fresh bearish structure.
It’s now down ~10% YTD — the worst first half in over 50 years.
📈 EURUSD & GBPUSD: Holding Strong Despite Weak Data
EURUSD
German Retail Sales: –1.6%
Import Prices: –0.7%
ECB tone: muted
Still, EURUSD held daily support and gained — thanks to broad USD weakness.
GBPUSD
Current Account widened (–£23.5B), GDP unchanged
No standout UK catalyst
Yet GBPUSD held its ground and edged higher as DXY continued to fall.
🧠 What This Tells Us
Strong data isn’t always enough.
When price action, market sentiment, and liquidity targets align — they override the numbers.
DXY 1D – Tipping Point: News or Price Action?Hey Guys,
The DXY index is currently moving within a downtrend. This trend is unlikely to reverse unless it breaks above the 98.950 level.
Sure, key fundamental data could shift the trend, but without those news catalysts, a reversal at this point doesn’t seem realistic.
Don’t forget—98.950 is a critical threshold for the DXY.
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DXY Tests Key Support – What’s Next for the Dollar?
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar’s performance against a basket of major currencies, recently broke below its 50-month moving average based on the monthly chart —a significant technical signal. After this drop, the index is now bouncing off a key support zone near 96.50.
This area has acted as a pivot point in past cycles, and a sustained bounce could indicate the dollar regaining strength. If risk sentiment fades—due to weaker equity markets, geopolitical tensions, or stronger U.S. data—the dollar might find new momentum.
On the flip side, failure to hold 96.50 could open the door toward the 90.00 zone, a major long-term support level. Such a move would likely reflect expectations of looser U.S. monetary policy or further deterioration in economic confidence.
For now, price action near 96.50 will be decisive. A rebound could shift sentiment back in favor of the dollar, while a deeper decline may trigger broader adjustments in FX markets. Traders should closely monitor upcoming macro data and risk sentiment for cues on the next leg.
Dollar Index AnalysisTwo possibilities for the dollar index has been shown here. We can see that dollar index is showing a short term uptrend. Which is clearly visible from the chart.
1: Dxy can maintain this short term uptrend. Because it is a monthly pullback. As it has been
for last 5 months.
2: Dxy can change character and again touches to the monthly demand zone as shown in my
previous video.
DXY-Technical Analysis DAILY Timeframe 📊 DXY – Technical Analysis (1D Timeframe)
🔷 Overall Trend:
The Dollar Index (DXY) has been in a strong downtrend for several months, forming multiple confirmed Breaks of Structure (BOS) to the downside.
However, recent price action is showing signs of momentum loss and potential exhaustion from sellers near the current lows.
🟡 Market Structure:
Price recently formed a lower low, but momentum indicators are showing bullish divergence — suggesting the downward pressure is weakening.
A small bullish reversal candle has printed, indicating potential short-term buying interest.
There is no confirmed bullish CHoCH yet, but structure is starting to slow down and compress — signaling a possible shift.
📉 Indicators (RSI ):
RSI is rebounding from oversold territory, showing potential early reversal signals.
The confirms bullish divergence and shows fading bearish momentum.
Overall, sellers are showing reduced strength, increasing the chance of a corrective move to the upside.
🔹 Key Levels:
Immediate resistance zones:
🔹 97.23 and 97.73 — key levels to watch for bullish continuation.
Major support:
🔻 96.34 – 96.50 — current low area that if broken, will confirm further downside.
✅ Conclusion:
While DXY remains structurally bearish, the recent bullish divergence, loss of selling momentum, and RSI recovery suggest the potential for a short-term correction or bounce.
A confirmed CHoCH and break above 97.73 would signal a potential shift to bullish structure.
If price fails to break resistance and drops below 96.34, the bearish trend is likely to continue.
🟢 Scenario Table:
Scenario Trigger Implication
Bullish shift Break above 97.73 with CHoCH Potential trend reversal
Continuation bearish Break below 96.34 Downtrend continuation
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asse
DXY (LONG)
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DXY: The Market Is Looking Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 97.054 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
DOLLAR MONTHLYTHE monthly chart of dollar index reflect the economic health of the united states and the strength of the us dollar .
its key and critical to the direction and trade directional bias of AUDUSD,USDJPY,EURUSD,GBPUSD,USDZAR NZDUSD,USDCAD.
if this monthly chart is true expect a reversal on all the mentioned pairs.
GOLD could be exception as a top tier asset and store of value .
#dxy #dollar
DXY DOLLAR INDEX The DXY has declined from its current high 114.54 to 96.59 reflecting a weaker dollar against a basket of major currencies including the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc.
Despite this decline, the dollar remains supported by strong US economic growth and higher US 10-year bond yields, which have widened the yield gap with other developed economies .
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has been relatively hawkish, with fewer rate cuts priced in compared to other central banks, helping to underpin the dollar.
Trade tensions and tariff uncertainties continue to create volatility, but the dollar benefits from safe-haven demand amid global uncertainties
Composition of the DXY Basket:
Euro (EUR): 57.6%
Japanese Yen (JPY): 13.6%
British Pound (GBP): 11.9%
Canadian Dollar (CAD): 9.1%
Swedish Krona (SEK): 4.2%
Swiss Franc (CHF): 3.6%
context
Drivers: US economic strength, Fed policy, bond yield differentials, trade tensions, and safe-haven flows keeping dollar on support hold.
Ongoing US tariff announcements and trade policy changes have contributed to volatility and risk aversion, pressuring the dollar lower.
US Economic Policy the Market is concerned about fiscal policy, Federal Reserve independence, and rising US debt which have led to reduced demand for US assets, further weighing on the dollar.
Interest Rate Differential:
The US Fed funds rate remains at 4.50%-4.25%, but with global central banks adjusting policy, the relative appeal of the dollar has diminished.
Conversely, a sustained move above 98.00 could signal a reversal and renewed dollar strength.
hope we can get back to 100 aagin.
#dollar
Dollar Index Analysis – Trump, Hegemony & a Dangerous Disconnect🇺🇸💣 Dollar Index Analysis – Trump, Hegemony & a Dangerous Disconnect 📉⚠️
Hey Traders,
FXPROFESSOR here with a deep-dive update on the Dollar Index (DXY) – and this one hits both technicals and macro geopolitics.
🧠 Macro Context:
For decades, the U.S. strategically outsourced much of its basic manufacturing capacity to China—everything from screws, cables, plastics, and circuit boards. This freed America to focus on high-margin sectors like technology, finance, and defense innovation.
But this efficiency came at a cost: dependency. You can't be the military and economic hegemon of the world if you don’t manufacture your own basic components. That’s the foundation of hard power—and Trump understands this well.
🔁 Now Trump is trying to reverse that.
He knows America can’t win long-term without reclaiming production and export competitiveness – and a strong dollar kills that dream.
So what’s the play?
✅ Trump brings the volatility
✅ Fed stays cautious
✅ Dollar weakens... but without actual rate cuts
That’s the scary part 👇
📉 💵 Dollar Strength vs. Treasury Stress
This is also why the U.S. Treasury market is under stress. If the U.S. wants to rebuild domestic production, reduce trade deficits, and support massive fiscal spending, it needs to weaken the dollar and attract internal capital—not depend on foreign buyers of debt.
A strong dollar = trade imbalance, hollowed industry, and rising debt service costs.
A normalized dollar = controlled exports, internal manufacturing, and a potential realignment of global capital flows.
📉 The Chart: "The Year of the Normalized Dollar"
🟡 This is a continuation of the same chart I published over a year ago.
Key Rejection Zone: 100.965 (former support, now resistance)
Current Trajectory: Approaching my long-held target at 94.677
Macro Message: The dollar is dropping without a Fed pivot
Worrying Signal: If we hit major support while the Fed stays tight... the entire market may need to reprice expectations. That could shake equities and crypto alike.
🧊 This is not a clean-cut dollar short anymore . It’s already priced in, and that’s why I’m spooked.
🧭 What I’m Watching:
Will Trump’s trade war accelerate this move?
Will Powell finally cut in September—or double down?
Will the support at 94.5 hold, or break and open a much larger macro shift?
This chart is no longer just technical. It’s political. It’s strategic. It’s a chessboard for hegemony.
🎥 FULL 20-min video breakdown is now live!
I cover DXY, Bitcoin, tech stocks, gold, silver, DAX, BTC.D and much more
Watch it if you want the full map of what I’m thinking this week.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
U.S. Dollar Index Loses Key Support – Crypto Bull Run Loading?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has just broken below a long-term ascending channel, which has held since 2008. After losing the key horizontal support (~100 level), DXY retested and rejected from it (red circle), confirming a potential trend reversal. The move is technically significant and hints at further downside, possibly toward the 88–90 zone or lower.
This breakdown aligns with classic macro cycles, where a weaker dollar often fuels bullish momentum in risk assets, especially crypto. Historically:
-DXY downtrends in 2017 and 2020–2021 coincided with major Bitcoin and altcoin bull runs.
-DXY strength during 2018 and 2022 contributed to crypto bear markets.
With DXY now below both horizontal and diagonal support, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market may be entering the next expansion phase, especially if the dollar continues its downward trajectory
-DXY has broken below a 17 year rising channel – a macro bearish signal.
-Rejection from former support turned resistance confirms breakdown.
-A falling DXY historically corresponds with Bitcoin rallies and altseason expansions.
-Declining dollar strength could be the fuel that propels Bitcoin past $140K and Ethereum above $6K.
-A dollar bear trend may fuel total crypto market cap breakout beyond $4T+.
As DXY weakens, liquidity tends to rotate into risk-on assets like crypto. This setup mirrors pre-bull run environments seen in 2017 and 2020. A structural breakdown in the dollar could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s next major leg up.
Cheers
Hexa
USD Weakness Ahead (3-Month Outlook)EUR/USD: Breaking 1.0850, next target 1.1000
GBP/USD: Cleared 1.2750, heading toward 1.2950
AUD/USD: Rebounded from 0.6650, potential 0.6850
NZD/USD: Above 0.6150, could reach 0.6300
Key Drivers:
1. Fed likely cutting rates before ECB/BoE/RBNZ
2. Commodity recovery (helps AUD/NZD)
3. Political risks weighing on USD
Market Mood:
- Traders reducing long USD positions
- AUD/NZD shorts getting squeezed
Risks:
US inflation surprises upside
Geopolitical shocks boost USD safe-haven demand
Sasha Charkhchian
Dollar Index Holds Below 98 as Markets Await Trade Deal ProgressThe dollar index remained below 98 today, extending its two-day decline as investors watched trade negotiations ahead of the August 1 deadline. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said deal quality is the priority, suggesting Trump could grant extensions to countries showing real progress.
Markets are also focused on Fed Chair Powell’s speech for signals on interest rates. Despite Trump’s push for a cut, traders are not expecting action this month.
US Dollar Index 4-hour time frame, showcasing the US Dollar Index's performance over this period.
- The index is currently at 97.385, with a decrease of 0.636 (-0.65%) from its previous value.
- A red box indicates a "SELL" signal at 97.385, while a blue box suggests a "BUY" signal at 97.439.
- The chart includes various technical indicators, such as moving averages and relative strength index (RSI), to help traders analyze market trends.
DXYTHE DOLLAR INDEX .
key data report ,22nd the fed chairman Powell speaks and on 24th we are expecting Unemployment Claims.
watch this data as they will shape the trade directional bias.
Key Factors Behind Today's Drop
1. Rising Global Risk Appetite and Strong Foreign Currencies
Investors are showing increased appetite for non-dollar assets today. The euro, yen, and pound have all strengthened—most notably, the dollar fell nearly 1% against the yen after political developments in Japan and a positive outlook in Europe.
European optimism was boosted by encouraging business survey results, while political clarity in Japan lifted the yen and added further selling pressure on the dollar.
2. Lower U.S. Treasury Yields
Softening U.S. yields contributed to the dollar’s weakness. Lower yields typically make the dollar less attractive relative to other currencies, further encouraging outflows.
Investors are reassessing Federal Reserve rate cut odds and show caution ahead of the July 31 Fed meeting.
3.Uncertainty Over Tariffs and U.S. Policy
Heightened anxiety around upcoming U.S. tariffs (with an August 1 deadline) and erratic policy signals are dampening confidence in the dollar as a safe haven.
Speculation over Fed independence, including market chatter about potential challenges to Chair Powell’s role, has hurt trust in U.S. monetary policy stability, fueling additional dollar selling.
Conclusion
The dollar index’s drop from its ascending trend line today is the result of a perfect storm of increased foreign currency strength, risk-seeking investor sentiment, declining U.S. yields, persistent policy and tariff uncertainty, All of these factors have combined to drive sellers selling momentum ,they will continue to push the index to its lowest levels and my structure is giving me 94-94.5 level.
trading is 100% probailty,trade with caution.