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British Pound / U.S. Dollar

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GBPUSD trade ideas

GBP/USD: Path to 1.3200 on Policy DivergenceThis trade idea outlines a high-conviction bearish thesis for GBP/USD. The core of this analysis is a significant and growing divergence between the fundamental outlooks of the UK and US economies, which is now being confirmed by a bearish technical structure. We anticipate the upcoming UK economic data releases during the week of July 14-18 to act as a catalyst for the next leg down. The Fundamental Why 📰 The primary driver for this trade is the widening policy and economic divergence. The UK is facing a triad of headwinds while the US economy exhibits greater resilience. This fundamental imbalance favors the US Dollar and is expected to intensify. Dovish Bank of England: The BoE is clearly signaling a dovish pivot towards monetary easing in response to a weakening labor market and sluggish growth prospects. This contrasts with the Federal Reserve's more patient, data-dependent stance. Widening Rate Differentials: The divergence in central bank policy is leading to a widening interest rate differential that favors the US Dollar. Geopolitical Headwinds: Fiscal policy from the new UK government and ongoing trade tensions are creating additional headwinds for the Pound. The Technical Picture 📊 Price action provides strong confirmation of the bearish fundamental thesis, showing a clear loss of upward momentum and the formation of a new downtrend. 📉 Death Cross: The 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average, forming a "death cross," which is a strong bearish indicator. 📉 Key Level Lost: The price has recently broken and is holding below the critical 200-day moving average, a classic bearish signal. 📉 Bearish Momentum: Both the RSI (below 50) and the MACD (below its signal line and zero) indicate that bearish momentum is in control. The Trade Setup 📉 👉 Entry: 1.3540 - 1.3610 🎯 Take Profit: 1.3200 ⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.3665
Short
by MaxellAguiran
Bullish reversal?The Cable (GBP/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance. Pivot: 1.3529 1st Support: 1.3457 1st Resistance: 1.3633 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
GBPUSD Short idea! Yes, we're bullish on the Daily timeframe. This is a continuation of the 4H bearish pullback. For me, we're not far enough into the discount leg of the daily swing. I'd like to see some of those hefty imbalances get filled first. Risky, given that we've only wicked that recent 4H swing low, so waiting for 15m confirmation within that 1H extreme OB. Targeting the 4H swing low for a 2.5RR. We could switch up, and rally up now, but the DXY is showing some more potential upside strength in the short term. So, this aligns well with my notion of more GBP downside, ahead of the next rally up!
Short
by jakrmo
GBP/USD Poised for Fifth Daily Decline- Support in ViewThe Sterling rally failed to close above confluent trend resistance at the 2022 high near 1.3749 with GBP/USD now off more than 1.8% from the monthly / yearly high. The July opening-range seems set here at 1.3530-1.3750 and the focus is on a breakout in the days ahead with the broader outlook still constructive while within this formation. GBP/USD is testing support today at the 61.8% retracement of the late-June advance at 1.3530 with the weekly opening-range preserved just above. Initial resistance eyed along this short-term channel with breach above the objective weekly open at 1.3645 needed to shift the focus back towards the 2022 high at 1.3749- a daily close above this level is still needed to mark uptrend resumption. Subsequent resistance objective eyed at the 100% extension of the January advance at 1.3816 and the 61.8% extension of the broader 2022 advance at 1.4003. A break lower exposes key support at the 61.8% retracement of the May rally / 2024 high-day close (HDC) at 1.3388-1.3415. A break / close below this slope would suggest a more significant high was registered last week / a larger reversal is underway with initial support seen at the May low-day close (LDC) at 1.3176. Bottom line: A reversal from trend resistance threatens a larger correction within the broader GBP/USD uptrend. The immediate focus is on a breakout of the weekly opening-range for guidance. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 1.3388 IF Sterling is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.3749 ultimately needed to mark uptrend resumption. -MB
by FOREXcom
GBPUSD | ChoCh & FVG Reversal playPrice broke bullish structure and created a Clear Change of Character (CHoCH) after sweeping the lows, indicating a shift in momentum. A valid entry setup formed as price tapped into the refined demand zone + FVG, aligning with an overall bullish reversal idea. 🔹 CHoCH confirmation 🔹 Break of trendline (liquidity sweep) 🔹 FVG + Demand zone alignment 🔹 Targeting the inefficiency fill and supply mitigation above Expecting a push back toward premium pricing before reevaluation. Let’s see if the algo delivers. #SMC #GBPUSD #CHoCH #FairValueGap #Orderflow #FXTradingClub #PriceAction
Long
by sam_trades_smc
SELL GBPUSD for bullish divergence trend reversal STOP LOSS: 1.3SELL GBPUSD for bullish divergence trend reversal STOP LOSS: 1.3622 Regular Bearish Divergence In case of Regular Bearish Divergence: * The Indicator shows Lower Highs * Actual Market Price shows Higher Highs We can see a strong divergence on the MACD already and There is a strong trend reversal on the daily time frame chart..... The daily time frame is showing strength of trend reversal from this level resistance so we are looking for the trend reversal and correction push from here ..... TAKE PROFIT: take profit will be when the trend comes to an end, feel from to send me a direct DM if you have any question about take profit or anything Remember to risk only what you are comfortable with........trading with the trend, patient and good risk management is the key to success here...
Short
by BALE_FX
GBPUSD – Classic FRL setup unfoldingWe have a clear descending channel (wedge) on H1, with the price testing the neckline level after a corrective consolidation. According to Fractal Reversal Law (FRL): The neckline is drawn horizontally at the start of the last impulse, not on the top of the candle wicks. The price has retested the neckline multiple times, forming a clean structure before potential continuation. The 100 SMA is above the price, confirming the bearish structure and scale alignment. Trade Plan: 🔻 Entry: Below the neckline on confirmation of breakout. 🔻 Stop Loss (SL): Above the upper boundary of the channel and last swing high (clearly marked on the chart). 🔻 Take Profit (TP): At the intersection of the lower channel line with the long-term ascending trendline (green support), around 1.34 area. Confirmation: • The MACD shows momentum fading, indicating a potential downside move aligning with the FRL setup. • We expect a clean impulse downward after a tight consolidation, providing a high-probability entry. Following the FRL principles, we wait for a clean breakout below the neckline to confirm the structure shift before entering.
Short
by borschenkovitc
GBPUSD I Daily CLS I KL - FVG I Model 1Yo Market Warriors ⚔️ Fresh outlook drop — if you’ve been riding with me, you already know: 🎯My system is 100% mechanical. No emotions. No trend lines. No subjective guessing. Just precision, structure, and sniper entries. 🧠 What’s CLS? It’s the real smart money. The invisible hand behind $7T/day — banks, algos, central players. 📍Model 1: HTF bias based on the daily and weekly candles closes,
Wait for CLS candle to be created and manipulated. Switch to correct LTF and spot CIOD. Enter and target 50% of the CLS candle. 
For high probability include Dealing Ranges, Weekly Profiles and CLS Timing.

Trading is like a sport. If you consistently practice you can learn it. “Adapt what is useful. Reject whats useless and add whats is specifically yours.” David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter 💬 Don't hesitate to ask any questions or share your opinions
Long
by David_Perk
66
GBPUSD Bullish continuation pattern breakout?The GBPUSD remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend. Support Zone: 1.3544 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 1.3544 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 1.3770 – initial resistance 1.3830 – psychological and structural level 1.3890 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 1.3544 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 1.3500 – minor support 1.3440 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the FTSE holds above 1.3544. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadEconomic Data Overview: United States – Initial Jobless Claims: This weekly indicator will offer a timely snapshot of US labor market conditions. A rise could signal softening employment dynamics, potentially supporting a dovish bias from the Fed. Conversely, sustained low claims would reaffirm resilience in the jobs market, complicating rate-cut timing. United Kingdom – June RICS House Price Balance: This measure of sentiment among surveyors regarding house prices will provide insight into the UK housing market. A negative reading would suggest downward pressure from higher mortgage rates, while stability or improvement may reflect increased buyer demand amid easing inflation. Japan – June Producer Price Index (PPI): Key for tracking upstream price pressures. Slowing PPI growth would suggest disinflationary momentum, reducing the urgency for further BoJ tightening. Any upside surprise may reinforce speculation of policy normalization beyond the recent rate hike. Italy – May Industrial Production: A barometer of Eurozone manufacturing health. Weak output would highlight the region's ongoing industrial stagnation, potentially reinforcing the ECB’s dovish tilt. Resilience could challenge expectations of sustained easing. Scandinavia – CPI & GDP Indicators: Denmark & Norway June CPI: Will test disinflation progress. Norway, in particular, could see market repricing of Norges Bank's stance if inflation proves stickier than expected. Sweden May GDP Indicator: Offers a snapshot of economic momentum. Weakness could justify the Riksbank’s cautious stance despite persistent inflation concerns. Central Bank Speakers: Federal Reserve – Musalem and Daly: Markets will be looking for clarity on rate cut timing. If comments lean dovish, they could reinforce market pricing for a September cut. Any resistance to easing amid still-strong activity data would introduce volatility. European Central Bank – Cipollone and Villeroy: Focus will be on signaling around September policy. Villeroy, in particular, is seen as a policy bellwether—any firm commitment to a second rate cut could steepen the EUR yield curve and weigh on the euro. Hawkish caution, however, may reflect concerns about lingering service inflation. Takeaway: Thursday’s data and central bank commentary will refine expectations for H2 policy shifts. Jobless claims and CPI prints across Europe remain pivotal for gauging the pace of disinflation, while central bank rhetoric may hint at how aggressively easing cycles might proceed amid mixed economic signals. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
GBPUSD Is Going Up! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for GBPUSD. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 1.360. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 1.364 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1