Update to my recent ideaI posted a bullish UPST view recently, but I want to add some important observations that should be noted for anyone playing this tomorrow:
-I can't pretend that unfilled gap from last April-May around 61 doesn't post a major risk here. However, take a look back at the price action last May earnings and you'll notice a common theme, namely, pre-earnings the price came off a bullish anti-cypher harmonic and tested that lower 80 level at the top of the gap for support going onto the report (not shown in chart but take a look for yourself)... due to the high short interest at the time and the earnings beat it absolutely took off to the upside post-ER. Fortunately for UPST bulls currently, heavily shorted and Friday it did the same thing where it tested that upper gap and held so I believe if they impress with this report it will not need to fill that gap (just yet). However, I will be hedging accordingly. The May 13 options are priced for a move to 61-107 (wow)... everyone's thinking it, I'm just saying it THIS REPORT NEEDS TO BE $$$$
- Support to the bullish view can be seen clearly in this 2 hour interval view with that stochastic RSI and the RSI primed for liftoff; furthermore, double completed bullish harmonics coming into this with the same anti-cypher pattern in the most recent harmonic
- If this pops it needs to keep in the upper section of Gann fan for continuation - it needs to keep up with time
- Please refer to the RSI at the 1D level (i.e. see my last post or refer to it on your own chart) - I did a full statistical eval. on the performance over the full history of UPST using RSI as a sole trade signal and it was very impressive. 88% reliability (measured this by the percentage of successful trades, e.g. if RSI purple crossed above yellow and upside move materialized that = successful trade, and vice versa for bearish crosses). 54% capture rate (this is actually extremely rare for trading with a sole indicator, but the idea is after a signal how much of the move on average did the signal capture, e.g. from open long to close long). Average upside move after bullish crosses was +65%... this thing can swing!
Expectations
Bullish case: gap to low 100s and if we see continuation it can run to 114, 120s, 150s, low 170s.. the extent of this continuation (i.e. which of those levels will actually be realized) will depend on market environment and/or if the short interest data are up to date (I'm seeing 28.5% short float, 2 days to cover so this can happen fast if it does move to mid 100s I wouldn't be surprised but I don't think it will be sustained unless whole market squeezes, 38% recent short increase). After bullish run ends (possibly low 170s but I'll be taking profits at 120-150 tbh) I would not be surprised if this whipsaws and fills that gap down to 61.
Bearish case: on a miss this could get hit down to gap fill and, hate to say it, but that downward momentum could send it on continuation down to around 35.. I didn't include elliot wave in this but UPST is, after all, trying to complete a rather funky corrective cycle before beginning next bullish impulse cycle. If someone has that corrective count mapped out I would be very interested in seeing it because I couldn't quite pin it.
Good luck to all, not financial advice but expect some very interesting and volatile price action in the weeks to come.
