ECPG - LONG HIGH PROBABILITY TO BREAKEOUTLONG. HIGH PROBABILITY TO BREAKEOUT
Good Stock. Good Tendency.
ECP trade ideas
WATCHING $ECPG for ENTRY TARGET @ 42.31WATCHING $ECPG for ENTRY TARGET @ 42.31
I’m practicing to nail my entries even better… if target hits I will take a position and this one seems to make some nice waves 🌊
If there's any ticker symbol you'd like me to determine a good entry price just comment below and I'll do as many as time permits.
ECPG Technical Analysis 🧙Encore Capital Group Inc is a specialty finance company. It provides debt recovery solutions for consumers and property owners across a broad range of financial assets. The company purchase portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables at deep discounts to face value and manage them by working with individuals as they repay their obligations and work toward financial recovery. Encore has only a reportable segment being portfolio purchasing and recovery.
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ECPG a good play on the financials sector. Great risk/reward.With growth and inflation rising, leading to a steeper yield curve, financials should continue to perform. One name that sold off meaningfully last week was ECPG. The debt collector should continue to do well in the immediate term given the macro tailwinds to the sector. I'd be a small buyer here, playing for a return to the recent range.
Encore Swing Trade on DailyNot the preference to catch these uptrends a little late but it is possible to make some profits.
MACD looks great and RSI is decent.
Once the trade hits TP1 or the orange line, there are more options:
1) move SL to Breakeven and extend targets
2) take profit on half position at an R of 1.08
3) move SL to Breakeven and hold until valid reason to exit
ECPG - Poised to move on Fundamentals? ECPG is well placed from both a fundamental and technical position. Had a very strong rebound in September/October before trading down in late October/November. Like the set-up heading into Q1 as Govt support runs off, as well as Balance Sheet strength of business. While there is yet to be a sustained technical position the fundamentals are very positive. Am long this name, despite the noise in teh price over the past few weeks. Has been signalling higher lows recently, which is a positive that supports strength going forward. There has also been insider buying in last few weeks which is a net positive.
PRA/ECPG: Long 13:30:56 (UTC) Thu Jun 11, 2020Over the last 20 years, total revolving credit owned and securitized is just under $1.1trillion. The charge off rate going back 20 years. In the last crises, we peaked at +%10.5. This is directly correlated to defatling or (180+ days= default). With continuing claims as the independent variable, the charge-off rate is thus dependent. So, for every 1+ million in jobless claims, there is a +1.3% increase in the charge off rate oof credit card corp. paper. However, there is an enormous wave of charged off paper coming down the pipeline later this year (it takes 180 days for banks to charge off delinquent receivables (credit cards)). A Lot of banks rolled out forbearance about 1-2 months a piece, so 6 months beyond this would take us into the later q4 of this year, and into 2021. So this call is a fundamental call to the upside, so keep in mind my duration is multi-year and long-term holding un-marginalized.
Historically speaking, when you get a 200 BP rise in the charge off rate, you get a 25% reduction in pricing. This produces a better estimated gross income multiple. What if pricing were to fall by half, with a wave of defaults coming later? This multiple could expand more than 10x, making 2008 credit card defaults look miniscule. I expect this cycle of forbearance could take some time and is a good question. Right now, we have forbearance rates around +8.5%, and delinquency above +6%. The dynamic is unprecedented and above where mortgage delinquencies were in 2008. The biggest uncertainty is what will happen to the enhanced jobless numbers? The majority of 65-70% of people collecting benefits, are collecting more than when they were employed. And this is proven because of both the state and cares act, roughly $1k per week, over +$50k per year being unemployed. These expire at the end of July. The next round of stimulus (HEROS) with members on both sides at a gridlock.
This all includes mortgage, auto, credit cards, etc. I think the foreclosure rates will rise, but mostly it will all depend on the rate at which un-employment recovers and what the extensions to the stimulus mentioned above.
13:30:56 (UTC)
Thu Jun 11, 2020
A Long Encore! ** Comments and Likes are appreciated; Desperate for Subscribers too! **
What I see...
+ Prices retested $30 Resistance line 3 times since mid-March dip
+ 4th re-test broke above the Resistance under the shadow of earnings
+ MACD is stepping into positive zone
+ RSI is rising at 60
+ High vol for 3 days on a row
- Long upper shadow on trigger bar
- Both faster MAs are under the 200MA
- Prices gap-ed away from 10MA
What I setup...
+ Long entry above today's high
- Stop at today's low
+ Target at $40
:: Duration: 3 to 8 sessions
ECPG Has Rare HFT PatternHFTs rarely trade a stock more than one day. ECPG has 2 days of HFT action moving the stock with strong momentum with high volume. Often VWAP orders from smaller funds will trigger after an HFT run day. The stock breached resistance but is at risk for professional traders taking profits. ECPG is an S&P 500 index component.
ECPG - Ascending triangle breakout trade from $30.57 to $34.33ECPG showing strong upward momentum. Seems forming an ascending triangle formation. Very strong Moneyflow. We think it has very strong upward potential.
Trade Criteria
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $30.57
Exit Target Criteria- $34.33
Stop Loss Criteria- $28
Trade Status: Pending
(Note: Trade update is delayed here.)
ECPG - will profit from economic recoveryBuy STOP @ 45.26 with SL @ 43.3
closed on 24th Oct reaching the target
