Fake news stirs up the market, market trend analysis📰 News information:
1. Beige Book of Federal Reserve's economic situation
2. European and American tariff trade negotiations
📈 Technical Analysis:
Today, our overall trading can be said to have accurately grasped the trading points, and both long and short positions have earned us good profits.The gold market surged due to Trump's intention to fire Powell. Trump then denied the plan, which dissipated the risk aversion in the gold market and the overall rhythm fell back to a volatile pattern. The current market price of gold closed with a long upper shadow line, indicating that there is a certain need for adjustment in the market. Although the news stimulus has pushed it up to 3377, we need to be vigilant against the risk of a decline after a high rise. Pay attention to today's closing. If it closes below 3345, the bearish trend may continue in the future.
OANDA:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD
GOLD trade ideas
Gold market trend analysis and exclusive analysis.Analysis of the latest gold market trends:
Analysis of gold news: The U.S. Department of Labor released the much-anticipated June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data at 20:30 Beijing time. After the CPI data was released, the financial market responded quickly, showing investors' recalibration of inflation data and monetary policy expectations. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) fell 16 points in the short term after the data was released, reflecting the market's interpretation of the core CPI being slightly lower than expected, which was dovish. The gold market reacted particularly sensitively. The core CPI was lower than expected, pushing spot gold up by $6 in the short term, indicating a brief rebound in safe-haven demand. In the short term, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is close to 100%, but the mild performance of the core CPI reserves the possibility of a rate cut in September or earlier. The market needs to pay close attention to subsequent data, especially the July CPI and PCE price index, to determine whether inflation will continue to rise.
Gold technical analysis: This week's upward breakthrough of 3375 further bullish on the 3400 mark; the daily average line diverges upward to support bulls, and bullish on bullish gains. However, if you want to rise, you must exert your strength today, otherwise the bulls may end at any time! The current support level is near the daily MA5 and the middle track. The next step is still the focus. If you want to rise, you can't go down here. Going down means continuing to sweep back to 3320 and 3300. Today's European session also broke high without continuation, and the US session formed a retracement to test the MA5 support level. As long as the middle track is not lost, the short-term will continue to touch the high, so the operation is very clear. In the short term, the short-term will rely on the support of the middle track to see a rebound, and the upper resistance is 3665-3375. The daily Bollinger Bands continue to close. If the upper 3375 is not broken, do not chase the high position, and beware of high-level selling. On the whole, today's short-term operation of gold recommends that the callback is mainly long, and the rebound is supplemented. The upper short-term focus is on the 3350-3360 line resistance, and the lower short-term focus is on the 3320-3310 line support.
XAUUSD BEARISH CONTINUATION SETUP📉 XAUUSD – Bearish Continuation Setup
Timeframe: 30m | Bias: Bearish
Price failed to hold above the lower supply zone (highlighted red) after a strong move into resistance. A clear break of structure confirms sellers are in control.
🔹 Entry: 3,355–3,360 (after minor pullback into supply zone)
🔹 Stop Loss (SL): Above 3,365 (invalidation above zone)
🔹 Take Profit (TP):
▫️TP1: 3,330
▫️TP2: 3,315
▫️TP3: 3,300 (if bearish momentum continues)
📌 Structure shift + rejection from supply zone gives high-probability short setup. Wait for price confirmation before entry.
XAUUSD DOUBLE TOP AND HL REACTION ZONE 📉 XAUUSD – Double Top & HL Reaction Zone
Gold formed a potential double top pattern near the 3375 resistance zone, followed by a strong BMS and consecutive CHoCHs, signaling bearish pressure. However, price has respected the higher low (HL) structure near the 200 EMA, keeping the bullish structure intact for now.
We are currently in a key reaction zone.
If this HL holds and bullish intent appears, price may attempt another move toward the previous high.
If the HL breaks, a deeper correction could be in play toward 3327 or lower.
📌 Watch for:
Confirmation around 3350 zone
AND TP ZONE 3330 AROUND
HL reaction or breakdown
Gold Analysis and Trading Strategy | July 14✅Gold opened with a gap up today, indicating a strong bullish trend, with the current price around 3370. After reaching a high of 3374 in the early session, gold is still consolidating at these high levels, awaiting buying pressure. Due to the gap up and subsequent rise, the short-term trend is likely to experience a gap fill. Additionally, considering the rapid rise, if a drop occurs during the European session, a pullback may follow. The upward curve is smooth, and the bullish momentum is strong, with the market still dominated by bulls. Therefore, today we should focus on strong support levels for buying opportunities, with the key entry point being around 3345-3350.
✅On the 1-hour chart, the moving averages continue to show a golden cross, indicating a bullish arrangement. In a strong market, a series of consecutive bearish candles can damage the upward pattern, while too many bullish candles can disrupt a downtrend. Therefore, attention must be paid to the strength of the candlestick patterns today. The current support level is near 3350, with further support at 3345. For the price to maintain this bullish trend, it should not fall below 3345 today. If gold retraces to 3350, it remains a buying opportunity.
🔴 Key Resistance Levels : The short-term resistance is in the range of 3392-3400. If this area is broken, gold could continue to rise.
🟢 Key Support Levels: Key support is at 3350, with further support at 3345.
✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
🔻 Short Position Strategy:
🔰When gold rebounds to around 3392-3395, consider selling in parts, with a stop loss of 8-10$ and a target of 3370-3360. If this level is broken, the next target would be 3350.
🔺 Long Position Strategy:
🔰When gold pulls back to around 3345-3350, consider buying in parts, with a stop loss of 10 points and a target of 3365-3385. If the price breaks through, the next target would be 3395.
🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions. If you have any questions or need one-on-one guidance, feel free to contact me.
D1, chart analysis.
Gold is currently ranging within a horizontal consolidation zone.
The price is oscillating between the support at ~$3,172–$3,344 and resistance at ~$3,415–$3,500.
A pullback zone is identified near $3,344–$3,346, aligning with prior minor structure and the Fibonacci 0.618 level.
These levels suggest the retracement may be over, and price could be prepping for a new push.
Gold Weekly Summary and Forecast 7/19/2025Gold has been very choppy these two weeks. As the 2W closes, the falling line indicated in the 2W chart still interacts. As long as this line is not broken, gold could retrace further.
In weekly chart on the right, we are seeing a head and shoulder pattern has been formed. And the rejection level is aligning with 61.8% Fibo level retracement.
From the above two analysis, I am expecting gold to drop heavily next week to at least 3250 or even 3192.
Let's enjoy the weekend and I will come back with intraday analysis every day next week.
GOLD (XAUUSD) Long Idea – Breakout Confirmation📆 Timeframe: 4H
📈 Type: Long (Buy)
🎯 Entry: Around 3348-3355
🎯 Target: 3451
NOTE: Price has respected the ascending trendline from early July.
Clean breakout from a consolidation range after several rejections near 3365 resistance.
Bullish structure confirmed with higher lows and higher highs.
Fibonacci levels and support zone at ~3344 are holding strong.
Targets set at prior resistance zone (~3451), aligning with liquidity zone.
Is Gold Preparing for a Breakout — or a Trap? 🟡 Is Gold Preparing for a Breakout — or a Trap? Let’s break down the latest market data 👇
⸻
🟥 1. U.S. Inflation News (PPI & Core PPI)
Report Previous Forecast Actual
Monthly PPI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Core PPI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
📉 Result: Very bearish for the U.S. dollar
→ Inflation is cooling
→ Fed may pause rate hikes
→ Interest rates could stabilize or drop
→ And gold loves that kind of setup 😍
⸻
🟫 2. U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Report
Report Previous Forecast Actual
Crude Oil Inventories +7.07M –1.80M –3.85M
🟢 Result: Very bullish for oil
→ Energy demand is higher than expected
→ Inflation could creep back up due to rising oil prices
→ That makes investors run to gold as a hedge against inflation 🔥
⸻
🧠 Technical & Market Outlook for XAU/USD:
📈 Gold pushed from $3,319 to $3,377
↩️ Now it’s in a pullback, testing Fibonacci levels:
• 38% retracement near $3,350
• 61% retracement near $3,339
📉 But… these pullbacks are happening with positive delta and absorption → which signals smart buying from below 👀
✅ Additional signs:
• VWAP is stable
• Volume is holding around the POC
• And macro data is clearly supporting upside momentum
⸻
🎯 Trading Plan:
• ✅ Entry Zones: $3,350 or $3,339
• 🛑 Stop Loss: Below $3,319 (recent low)
• 🎯 TP1: $3,377
• 🎯 TP2: $3,392 – $3,400
• ⚠️ Watch for a breakout above $3,377 with strong volume — that would confirm the real move.
⸻
🔄 Summary:
💥 Two major news events today are supporting gold:
1. Weak PPI = possible pause in rate hikes
2. Rising oil = renewed inflation risk
So gold is getting support from both angles.
But stay cautious — any surprise statement from the Fed or a sudden USD rally could change the game
Gold Market Eyes 3330's as Bullish Wedge MaturesGold market maintains its stance within the bullish build-up, moving in alignment with a wedge completion structure. The 3360's act as short-term resistance, while price looks set to mitigate and sweep pending orders at 3330's. A potential retracement before continuation—stay sharp.
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GOLD BUY SETUP • Premium Zone Rejection:
• Price has tapped into a higher-timeframe supply zone (~3,380–3,400), showing early signs of exhaustion.
• Bearish reaction here is consistent with smart money offloading positions.
• Equal Highs Liquidity Sweep:
• A sweep of engineered highs (₤₤₤) before the drop hints at a classic liquidity grab, possibly triggering sell-side momentum.
• Anticipated Pullback:
• Expecting a corrective move toward the demand zone (around 3,285–3,310), aligning with discounted entry pricing for long setups.
• Bullish Continuation Potential:
• If price respects the demand zone and forms a higher low, a bullish continuation toward new highs is likely.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Bullish Trend-Following Movement Ahead! 📈 GOLD shows several bullish signals on the 4H chart.
Initially, the price surpassed and closed above a resistance line of a bullish flag pattern.
Following that, a confirmed Change of Character (CHoCH) took place.
The price appears poised for further growth, with the next resistance level at 3360.
GOLD - Price can bounce down from resistance line of channelHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Gold broke out of its long-term rising channel and hit $3390 resistance level before momentum definitively stalled.
That failure marked a shift in control, as sellers forced price into a falling channel, establishing lower highs and lower lows.
Price fell to support level, after whcih it turned around and bounced up to resistance line of falling channel.
Now, Gold tests the upper boundary of the falling channel near $3318, where each bounce has been capped by declining volume.
Key support lies in the $3250 - $3235 area, aligned with multiple prior demand tests and the former rising-channel floor.
I expect Gold to reverse from the channel resistance and slide toward $3235, decisively breaking below the $3250 level.
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THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
Today was another choppy day on gold with price accumulating in a small range before the break out. We had the bullish above and bearish below level so no choice but to wait for the break. Ultimately, 3320 broke on the 15min indi and then we managed to complete all of our bearish targets for the day. Well worth the wait!
Now we have support below at the 3285 level with resistance sitting at 3310 which is the level that will need to hold us down to target lower. Lower first, which would be ideal, we may get a RIP over the session to come.
RED BOX TARGETS:
Break above 3350 for 3355, 3360, 3362, 3365, 3374, 3388 and 3396 in extension of the move
Break below 3335 for 3331✅, 3324✅, 3321✅, 3310✅, 3306✅ and 3293✅ in extension of the move
Todays levels from Camelot:
Price: 3324
RED BOXES:
Break above 3336 for 3340, 3346, 3350 and 3360 in extension of the move
Break below 3320 for 3310✅, 3306✅, 3304✅ and 3297✅ in extension of the move
As always, trade safe.
KOG