GOLD trade ideas
Repeated cycle, timing is keyMarket fluctuations are oscillating about 70% of the time, and only about 30% of the time are unilateral upward or downward, so accumulating small victories into big victories is the magic weapon for long-term success. What we need to do is to plan our positions well, and make this investment with a plan, direction, and guidance. A good trader will make your investment journey smoother. How to operate in a volatile market? The ancients said: Do not do good things because they are small, and do not do evil things because they are small. If we move it to financial management, it can be understood as: Don't be too greedy, enter the market in batches. When entering the market and covering positions, the position should be small. Although the profit is less, accumulating small victories into big victories is the key to success. The investment philosophy is composed of the investor's psychology, philosophy, motivation, and technical level. It mainly includes: stability, patience, independent thinking, discipline, trend, etc.
Judging from the current trend of gold, in the 4H cycle, it has touched 3330 many times under pressure, and the K-line has continuously closed with upper shadows, which is quite similar to yesterday's rhythm. So we must first look at the strength of the decline. The support below is at 3314 and 3306. In terms of operation, it should be treated as mainly long and auxiliary short. The upper pressure still focuses on the gains and losses of 3330.
XAUUSD - Intraday SMC Bearish Setup | 15m ChartGold is currently reacting to a visible 15m supply zone after a bullish retracement. Price failed to break above the short-term supply (highlighted in red), showing signs of potential short-term reversal.
🔍 Key SMC Insights:
Supply Zone at 3318.47 – 3320 area is holding firm, with price showing clear rejection and lower highs forming.
Internal CHoCH already confirmed — suggesting short-term bearish order flow is active.
Liquidity Grab and rejection around the supply confirms smart money may be offloading positions.
Imbalance Below near 3303.96, with further inefficiency down to 3272.64.
📍Trade Idea:
Sell Entry: After a retest or failure to break above the 3318.47 zone.
Target 1: 3303.96 (near-term support and minor liquidity)
Target 2: 3272.64 (major liquidity zone + possible demand area)
Invalidation: Bullish break and close above 3320 would shift intraday bias.
⚠️ Monitor lower timeframes (1m–5m) for confirmation before executing trades. This setup aligns with the 4H bearish structure, enhancing confluence.
Short gold ,the downside potential is far from over.After we waited patiently for a long time, the gold bears finally showed signs of strength and began to fall as expected. Why do I insist on being optimistic about the gold retracement and wait patiently for it to retrace? !
In fact, it is very simple. Gold started to rebound from around 3283 and touched around 3330, which only recovered 50% of the decline. When facing the 50% retracement level, the bulls were unable to do so and could not stand above 3335, and could not even stabilize above 3330. The bulls' willingness was obviously insufficient. Then it can be determined that the gold rebound is only a technical repair of the sharp drop, and it cannot be completely regarded as a reversal of the trend. Then after a certain degree of repair, the gold bears will counterattack again.
Moreover, from the perspective of market psychology, the recent gold bull and bear markets have been discontinuous, and Trump often stirs up the gold market, making it difficult for the market to stand unilaterally on the bull side. Therefore, before gold stabilizes in the 3330-3340 area, there is limited room for rebound in the short term. Once gold falls below the 3310-3305 area again during the retracement, gold may test the area around 3280 again, or even around 3270.
So the above is why I insist on shorting gold, and I have shorted gold at 3320-3330 as planned, and patiently hold the position to see its performance in the 3310-3305 area, which is also the target area of our short-term short position.
Gold Coils Beneath Resistance – Breakout Setup Brewing Above $3,Gold remains in a consolidation phase after its sharp rally earlier this year, but the broader uptrend remains intact. Price action continues to respect the ascending trendline that has been active since late 2024, as well as the 50-day SMA which currently offers dynamic support around the $3,323 level.
The key horizontal resistance at $3,430 continues to cap upside attempts. Price has formed a series of higher lows while facing rejection at this ceiling, suggesting a potential ascending triangle pattern—a bullish continuation setup.
Indicators:
MACD remains below the zero line and has flattened, reflecting the lack of momentum and confirming the consolidation.
RSI hovers near 47, showing neutral momentum. However, it has started to curl up slightly, which could hint at a developing bullish bias if price breaks higher.
Key Levels to Watch:
A confirmed breakout above $3,430 could open the door to fresh highs.
On the downside, a break below the ascending trendline and 50-day SMA could trigger a deeper correction toward the 200-day SMA near $2,950.
Conclusion:
Gold is currently coiling within a tightening range. While momentum is subdued, the technical structure favors a potential bullish breakout if resistance at $3,430 gives way. Traders should watch for a daily close above this level for confirmation of renewed bullish momentum.
-MW
XAUUSD - Liquidity Sweep & Smart Money Play | Dual Setup BreakdoFOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Liquidity Sweeps
Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
Trendline Liquidity
Demand/Order Blocks
Risk-Reward Structure
🔻 First Trade Idea – Short Position (Sell Setup)
🧠 Psychology & Liquidity Insight:
The market formed equal lows before a sudden rally which attracted retail traders.
Price created a bearish structure with lower highs, signaling weakness.
A strong liquidity sweep occurred by breaking trendline liquidity twice (as shown by red lines), targeting early buyers' stop losses.
A supply zone (red box) was respected near 3337, providing an ideal entry point for shorting.
📉 Trade Logic:
Entry: Near 3336.93 (Supply Zone)
SL: Above 3344.14 (Liquidity Sweep zone)
TP: 3328.62 / 3325.64 (Targeting demand imbalance & internal liquidity)
R:R: Approx. 1:2+
🔺 Second Trade Idea – Long Position (Buy Setup)
🧠 Psychology & Liquidity Insight:
After the initial selloff, price taps into the demand zone (blue box) created by the last impulsive move.
Internal liquidity is built again near 3328–3330, where retail traders expect a continued fall — ideal for smart money to reverse.
Price is expected to accumulate and reverse with a strong rally toward the upper liquidity resting above 3344.
📈 Trade Logic:
Entry: Near 3328.62 (Demand Zone Tap)
SL: Below 3325.64
TP: 3344.14 (Major Liquidity Target)
R:R: Over 1:3 – a high-quality reversal play.
🎯 Why This Trade Setup is Powerful:
✅ Both trades are liquidity-driven, not just indicator-based.
✅ Incorporates smart money logic and price structure.
✅ Clear risk-to-reward, validated by price behavior and institutional order flow.
#XAUUSD: Early Mitigation Or Sellers Trap! Let's See Gold dropped after touching 3365 taking price to 3318.Currently ranging market showing confusion over how gold would react to NFP data which is coming out tomorrow. At this moment we are quite certain that price would drop tomorrow either from entry one or entry two. Please use accurate risk management while trading.
Good luck and trade!
Team Setupsfx_
Gold Stuck in Neutral: Range Trading PersistsSince its impressive rally towards $3,500 earlier this year, Gold (XAUUSD) has settled into a consolidation phase, oscillating steadily between $3,250 and $3,400. Prices have consistently gravitated towards the 20-period SMA, reflecting a neutral sentiment among traders. Despite staying above key trend supports (50- and 200-period SMAs), gold has lacked sustained directional momentum.
Technically, indicators confirm this balanced outlook. RSI remains neutral around 49, indicating evenly matched bulls and bears, while the stochastic oscillator similarly shows neither oversold nor overbought conditions. A declining ATR highlights reduced volatility, signaling cautious market participation. Critical near-term support lies at $3,164 and $3,054, while resistance holds firm at $3,296 and $3,400. Traders should anticipate continued mean reversion and look to fade extremes within this established range.
Fundamentally, Gold faces competing drivers. Geopolitical uncertainties and central bank diversification away from the U.S. dollar provide bullish tailwinds. Conversely, resilient U.S. economic data periodically boosts the dollar, restricting gold’s upside potential. Traders should monitor this week's Fed minutes closely, as surprises here could trigger volatility or even a breakout scenario toward $3,500 or a deeper correction below $3,164. For now, expect gold to remain range-bound, reacting sensitively to headlines and macroeconomic cues.
7/9: Focus on Selling Gold on ReboundsGood evening, everyone!
Apologies for the late update today—I had some matters to attend to. I hope your trades are going smoothly.
Yesterday, gold found support around 3284 and continued to rebound during today’s session, reaching as high as 3330. The key resistance at 3321 has now been broken and is currently acting as a short-term support level. However, based on the current price structure, this level is likely to be retested multiple times, and some consolidation may follow.
The next major resistance lies between 3337 and 3343. In the absence of strong bullish momentum, the preferred short-term strategy remains selling on rebounds, especially near resistance zones.
⚠️ Additionally, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released during the New York session tonight, which may cause increased volatility and potentially whipsaw price action. Be cautious with position sizing, and avoid emotional trades or chasing price action during news releases. Patience and discipline will be key.
$XAUUSD / Gold - Thursday July 10th OutlookYesterday’s price action gave us a clean 200 pip run from the break and retest of 3308, and today we’ve already caught 140 pips using yesterday’s high (3317.17) as intraday support.
But now we’re sitting at a critical inflection point.
📍 Key levels:
Safe Buys: Only looking to buy above Tuesday’s high of 3345.74, which gives room for a clean 200-pip move up toward last Thursday’s high.
Bearish Scenario: If we fail to break that high and instead break yesterday’s high of 3316.65, we may see a sharp 340 pip drop back down to 3282.83.
⚠️ Caution: The 4H bearish trendline from mid-June is still intact, and we're currently testing it. Wait for clear confirmation either way. Higher timeframes remain bullish, so we’re playing both scenarios carefully.
Gold - Sell before longer term buyLooking at gold we are a matter of a few pips away from entry. looking to play gold down till our larger 4H area of demand seeing as we have had a CHoCH to the upside.
There for i will be looking to take my sell position down to 3283.5 at a bare minimum as it was the previous structure level in which we turned around.
Lets see if we get tagged in. If not i will jump down to the lower TF and see if we can get a confirmation that price is going to turn from here.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Important Decision Ahead
As I predicted, Gold went up from a trend line yesterday.
The price is now testing another trend line - a falling resistance
of a bullish flag pattern.
The next reliable bullish signal that you can look for is its
bullish breakout and a daily candle close above that.
A bullish move is going to follow then.
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XAUUSD Trading Strategy – July 8, 2025Gold (XAUUSD) is trading around 3,331 USD as global markets react to a series of critical economic data releases. The recent rally has brought prices back to a key resistance zone, but selling pressure remains strong due to the following factors:
- The Dollar Index (DXY) TVC:DXY holds steady near 97, its highest level in five weeks. A strong USD continues to weigh on gold, a non-yielding asset.
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yields remain stable at 4.35%, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates for longer to tame inflation.
- Robust U.S. labor market data and June’s Core PCE figures staying above the Fed’s 2% target further reduce the likelihood of a rate cut in Q3 or Q4.
- Geopolitical tensions remain muted, with no significant escalations in the Russia–Ukraine conflict or Middle East unrest, weakening gold’s safe-haven appeal.
➡ Collectively, these factors suggest that gold’s recent rebound could be a technical pullback within a broader downtrend, unless a new catalyst drives a breakout.
1. XAUUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Chart (D1)
Price is currently testing the 3,331 – 3,340 USD resistance zone, which includes:
A previous supply zone that has rejected multiple rallies.
- Fibonacci retracement 0.5–0.618 from the recent high at 3,405 USD.
- A key Change of Character (CHoCH) area, where trend reversals have previously occurred.
- EMA20 and EMA50 remain aligned downward, confirming the dominant bearish trend.
- RSI hovers around 50 with signs of mild bearish divergence, reflecting weakening bullish momentum.
➡ The current price action fits a classic “sell on rally” setup, with repeated rejections at technical resistance zones.
2. Key Price Levels to Watch
Technical Significance
- 3,340 – 3,331 Confluence resistance (Fibo 0.5–0.618 + supply + CHoCH)
- 3,310 – 3,300 Nearest support – role reversal zone
- 3,275 – 3,260 Short-term target support – June’s low
- 3,223 – 3,205 Strong medium-term support – April’s low + extended Fibo
3. Suggested XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD Trading Strategy
Primary Strategy: SELL if price rejects 3,340 – 3,345
Entry: 3,340 – 3,345
Stop Loss: 3,356
Take Profit 1: 3,335
Take Profit 2: 3,330
Take Profit 3: 3,325
Ps : Gold is trading at a critical price zone. If XAUUSD fails to break above the 3,340 USD resistance, there’s a high probability of a pullback toward the lower support levels. Selling at resistance and targeting support remains the preferred approach in the current macro environment, which continues to favor bearish momentum.
This strategy will be updated regularly – save it and follow to avoid missing upcoming opportunities.
Analysis by @Henrybillion
GOLD Is Very Bearish! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 3,320.51.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 3,298.54 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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XAUUSD Trade Setup – 1H ChartGold is currently at a key decision point, testing a supply zone and descending trendline resistance within a falling channel. Two scenarios are in play:
(Bearish)
Price gets rejected from the current supply zone (3,325–3,330) and resumes the downtrend, targeting 3,275 and possibly lower.
This aligns with the trendline resistance and previous swing rejection.
(Bullish Breakout)
If price breaks and holds above the descending trendline and clears the 3,331 zone, we may see a rally toward the 3,360–3,365 supply zone and beyond.
A breakout retest would confirm continuation.
This is a flexible setup with both long and short potential depending on the reaction at the current zone.
Your comments and opinions are welcome
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