XAUUSD – July 14, 2025 – Full Tactical Battle Plan🧠 I. Market Overview & Directional Bias:
📌 Bias: Bullish-Intraday With Potential Trap
Today’s price action formed a V-reversal spike low at 3353.75, clearing out stop clusters below FVG and VWAP. Followed by aggressive absorption just under 3358.5 major resistance.
Volume divergence shows declining sell pressure with rising absorption on the footprint charts.
📚 Schabacker’s logic: This move resembles a classic “shakeout below support” followed by recovery—setting a trap for late sellers.
🔍 II. Multi-Timeframe Breakdown
🔥 5m & 15m:
Bullish engulfing with wick rejection on VWAP level.
Price reclaimed 61.8% Fibo and holding above Golden VWAP Zone at 3357.45.
Delta spike showing buyer control with low negative absorption.
🕐 1H:
Price broke above prior consolidation range.
POC (3357.45) and VWAP holding.
Order flow confirms buying strength, but hesitant above 3359.5.
⏳ 4H & Daily:
Strong bullish candle on daily session.
4H is showing early signs of imbalance fill and distribution between 3360–3366.
VAH = 3365.52 – watch for rejection here.
🎯 III. Key Levels of Interest (All Cairo Time):
Type Level Commentary
🔴 Support 3353.75 Spike Low – Stop Hunt
🟠 VWAP 3357.45 Daily VWAP – Golden Zone
🟢 Resistance 3361.91 / 3365.52 Key FVRP Supply, VAH
🟣 Target Extension 3368.60 / 3373.91 Final extension targets
🎭 Market Maker Setup – Liquidity Psychology
Friday’s action was pure accumulation under VWAP, followed by stop hunt sweep today at 3353.
Current bounce = engineered rally to fill orders at premium. MM likely to:
Push into 3361–3366 trap zone.
Reject and pull back to VWAP or
Breakout above 3366 to trigger Buy Stops (blowoff top), then reverse.
🎓 Schabacker: "Congestion and false breakouts near key levels are traps for emotional traders."
This is classic trap anatomy forming.
🧱 IV. Recommended Hedge Plan
🟢 Long Setup
Order Type: Buy Stop
Entry: 3360.80
TP: 3368.60
SL: 3356.00
Confidence: 78%
🔴 Short Hedge (Trap/Fade Setup)
Order Type: Sell Limit
Entry: 3365.50
TP: 3353.80
SL: 3369.50
Confidence: 65%
🧠 Long = higher probability. Confluence at VWAP reclaim + absorption + breakout pattern.
💎 Jewel Trade Entry – Today’s Best Setup
Entry Type: Buy Stop
Entry: 3360.80
SL: 3356.00
TP: 3368.60
Time: Between 10:30 – 11:00 Cairo
Confidence: 82%
Justification:
Breakout of micro range.
Trapped shorts below VWAP.
Buyers absorbing all dips.
“False breakdown / true reversal” pattern.
