Expecting Gold bullish Movement The chart illustrates a potential bullish reversal setup for Gold XAU/USD on the 15-minute timeframe Price action has recently tested and respected a key demand zone marked as the Kee point around the 32853 level This area acted as strong support with multiple rejections suggesting buyer interest
Following this, the price has started forming higher lows and higher highs indicating the beginning of a bullish structure The large blue arrow suggests bullish momentum is expected to continue, aiming for upside targets
Key Levels
Kee Point Support Zone 3285 Crucial area where the reversal initiated
Target 1: 3316 First resistance level and a potential take-profit zone
Target 2: 3330 Final bullish target if momentum sustains
Outlook
As long as the price holds above the Kee Point, bullish continuation is favored
Breaking and closing above Target 1 could lead to further gains toward Target 2
A break below the Kee Point would invalidate this bullish scenario
This setup presents a potential buying opportunity with defined upside targets contingent on sustained bullish pressure
GOLDCFD trade ideas
"GOLD Bandit Strategy: Loot Pips Like a Pro!🏆 GOLD HEIST ALERT! 🏆 XAU/USD Bandit Strategy (Swing/Day Trade)
Steal Pips Like a Pro! 💰🔓 Bull vs. Bear Raid Plan
🌟 Greetings, Market Pirates! 🌟
"The trend is your accomplice—time to loot!"
🔮 Thief’s Technical & Fundamental Intel:
XAU/USD (The Gold Vault) is flashing BEARISH signals, but we’re ready to raid both sides! Follow the heist blueprint below 👇
🎯 ENRY POINTS (Where to Strike!)
🏴☠️ LONG RAID (Bullish Thieves):
Break & Grab: Enter above 3450.00 (Pullback Zone)
"Wait for the breakout, then ambush!"
🐻 SHORT RAID (Bearish Bandits):
Sneak Attack 1: Sell below 3300.00
Sneak Attack 2: Sell below 3260.00 (Support Wall Cracked!)
🛑 STOP-LOSS (Escape Routes)
Bullish Trade: SL at 3230.00 (Guard your loot!)
Bearish Trade 1: SL at 3360.00 (Don’t get caught!)
Bearish Trade 2: SL at 3280.00 (Risk = Reward!)
(Adjust SL based on your risk appetite & lot size!)
💰 TAKE-PROFIT (Cash Out & Flee!)
Bullish Thieves: TP at 3270.00 (Or escape early!)
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Bearish Bandits (2): TP at 3210.00 (Big score!)
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7.11 Gold Analysis7.11 Gold Analysis
At present, the long and short forces are in a tug-of-war between three key factors:
1. Expectations of Fed rate cuts (core support)
Latest developments: Fed Governor Waller strongly called for a rate cut in July, but the market expects a rate cut in September with a probability of over 70% (CME data). The chairman of the San Francisco Fed expressed support for two rate cuts this year to ease inflation concerns.
Influence mechanism: Rate cuts will lower real interest rates and the US dollar exchange rate, significantly reducing the cost of holding gold. If subsequent CPI/PPI data are weak or the job market deteriorates, the rally may be triggered in advance.
2. Middle East geopolitical risks (pulse momentum)
Event escalation: The Israeli Defense Minister threatened to strike Iran again, and the risk of obstruction of Red Sea shipping increased.
Risk aversion logic: If the conflict breaks out in substance (such as an attack on oil facilities), it will trigger a safe-haven fund to flow into gold. At the same time, the surge in oil prices may push up global inflation and strengthen the anti-inflation properties of gold.
3. Trump's tariff policy (stagflation catalyst)
Policy impact: 50% tariff on Brazilian goods and imported copper (effective on August 1), triggering global supply chain disturbances.
Double effect: Pushing up the US dollar in the short term will suppress gold prices, but it may aggravate stagflation risks in the medium and long term, providing underlying support for gold.
Key contradiction conclusion:
The expectation of interest rate cuts is the cornerstone of gold's trend rise, and geopolitical and tariff risks provide breakthrough momentum. If the three resonate (such as escalation of conflicts + September interest rate cuts + tariffs push up inflation), gold prices may quickly hit above $3,400.
Technical multi-cycle analysis
Daily level
Pattern structure: Gold has fallen from the April high of $3,500, forming a triangular convergence pattern. After breaking through the previous high resistance of $3,346 and standing firm, it will enter the $3,350-3,374 oscillation box. MACD shows a golden cross signal, and RSI stands firm in the neutral zone of 55, indicating that bulls are accumulating power.
Key watershed:
Upward breakthrough point: $3374 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement level + previous daily high), after stabilization, it will open up the 3400-3420 space.
Downward risk point: $3330 (10-day moving average + triangle upper rail), if it fails, it may drop to 3310-3280 support.
Short cycle (4H/1H)
4-hour chart: The price runs in the rising channel (lower edge 3340/upper edge 3372), and the narrowing of the Bollinger Bands indicates that a breakthrough is imminent. Pay attention to the $3345 moving average support, and maintain the offensive if it holds.
1-hour chart: MACD top divergence repair is completed, and the high point of $3340 breaks through and stabilizes, which will trigger short-term follow-up buying.
Today's key events and trading windows
US June PPI annual rate: If the data is lower than the previous value of 2.2%, it will strengthen the logic of interest rate cuts and push up gold prices;
Federal Reserve Board member Waller's speech: Dovish remarks may become a catalyst for breaking through $3,346;
Israel Security Cabinet Meeting: Any signal of military action will trigger safe-haven buying.
Today's strategy
It is recommended to buy around 3,320, stop loss at 3,300. Target 3,340.
If my analysis can help you, I hope you can cheer me up.
Gold (XAUUSD) Long Setup – 4H ChartTrade Type: Buy (Long)
Entry: Market Buy or Re-entry near 3332–3335
Target: Above 3360 (TP1: 3360, TP2: 3370+, final target near 3380–3400 zone)
Stop Loss: Below 3325 (Recommended: 3322–3324 for margin)
Re-entry Zone: If price pulls back to 3332–3335, look for bullish confirmation for re-entry
Setup Analysis: Favorable risk-reward structure with clear upside potential toward the 3380+ resistance zone
Context:
Strong recovery from previous lows
Bullish momentum building above 3343 resistance
Volume and price structure suggest breakout continuation
Pullback entries offer strategic positioning
Date: July 11, 2025
Shared by: @Pookie_xau
Gold: Wait for better prices for entriesHello,
Gold is once again forming a bullish flag, a perfect pattern for another bullish cycle. Since end of April 2025, Gold has been correcting after reaching the all time high. We see an opportunity for buys as we come closer to the low of the correction.
The MACD indicator is showing signs of an upcoming bullish crossover further reinforcing the thesis. From a fundamentals point of view Gold price continued to face hurdles since last week after the precious metal edged lower since last week as the US June Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report altered the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations.
Should the prices come further down, Investors may consider entering positions for this asset.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
GOLD CONFIRM TRADE🔍 Chart Analysis Summary:
Current Price: ~3,336
Key Resistance (Supply Zone): 3,340 – 3,353
Major Resistance Above: 3,388 – 3,395
Key Support (Demand Zone): 3,320 – 3,330
Major Support Below: 3,294 – 3,305
⚔️ Trade Setup Ideas:
📉 Sell Setup (High Probability Intraday Short)
Scenario: Price is near the lower supply zone (3,340–3,353), showing rejection.
Entry: 3,340 – 3,345 (on bearish candle confirmation or rejection wick)
Stop Loss: Above 3,353 (zone high or recent swing high)
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 3,330 (first minor support)
TP2: 3,320 (demand zone)
TP3: 3,295 (major support)
📌 Confirmation Tips:
Look for bearish engulfing / rejection candles
RSI divergence or weakness
Break of 3,330 support confirms continuation
📈 Buy Setup (If Price Drops to Demand)
Scenario: Price drops back into demand zone 3,320–3,330 with bullish reaction.
Entry: 3,322 – 3,328 (bullish wick or engulfing candle)
Stop Loss: Below 3,320
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 3,340
TP2: 3,353 (supply)
TP3: 3,388 (major resistance)
📌 Confirmation Tips:
Bullish price action near 3,322 zone
Momentum buildup from demand
Use M15/M30 for refined entry
Gold has a big win this dayNews: In the early Asian session on Thursday (July 10), spot gold fluctuated slightly higher, once regaining the 3320 mark, and is currently trading around $3323/ounce. On Wednesday, gold prices rebounded strongly after hitting a two-week low of 3282.61, closing at $3313.38/ounce, showing strong momentum for recovery. Trump extended the tariff agreement to August 1 and began to collect tariffs again. Although it eased market tensions, his remarks will not be extended after the expiration, and he issued tariff threats, which increased global trade uncertainty and pushed up risk aversion. The market is still facing economic and inflation concerns brought about by tariffs, which will also weaken the dollar and support gold prices.
Analysis of gold trend: After the full-day trend of gold on Wednesday, the lowest price was 3282 and the highest price was 3322, with a range of $40, so the bullish strength has come out. However, Li Siyu would like to emphasize here that gold is in a bullish trend for the time being, but it is not an absolute unilateral trend, but a fluctuating trend under the bullish trend. There are opportunities both up and down on Thursday. If it rises, you can look at 3345, and if it falls, you can look at 3285. Therefore, before there is an absolute strong unilateral rise, it is recommended that everyone keep looking at this wave of gold fluctuations. However, today's market is more important. Today is Thursday, and Thursday is often the node of the weekly change time. Today is likely to continue the rebound on Wednesday and continue to rise.
From a technical point of view, the daily line closed positive under the rebound of 3282 and stood firmly above the lower Bollinger track. If it continues to close positive on Thursday, it is necessary to pay attention to the suppression of the middle Bollinger track, that is, the high point of 3345. After breaking through, there will be another wave of rise on Friday, and you can see 3365 and 3400. Therefore, today's gains and losses of 3345 are crucial. The strong rebound in the H4 cycle is quite obvious. When it falls, it is very weak and continuous. When it rises, it is very strong and continuous. It depends on whether the continuous positive trend on Thursday will continue. Now the K-line stands firmly on the middle track of Bollinger. If it continues to rise, the high point of the upper track is around 3340-3345. In principle, the continuation of the long position will test the high point of the upper track. Therefore, it is still possible to go long today. Of course, it is not an absolute long trend now, so don't chase the rise. The support below the small cycle is around 3310-3300. If it falls back to this price, you can continue to go long. Clearly define the target. Today, we will see the gains and losses of 3345.
Gold is in the Bearish direction from a Support levelHello Traders
In This Chart GOLD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today Gold analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (GOLD market update)
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This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Weekly CRT on XauusdBuy the dip bros
The gold will fly
Just find entry and keep buying
Retracement, buy
buy
buy
buy and buy
Don't go to far trying to sell the market
The real direction is up
Confluences for buy:
20 day ipda range sweep of the previous day low
Weekly CRT
CRL was swept
1 hour cisd
Targeting CRH and ATH
Gold fluctuates repeatedly, how to seize the opportunityIf the direction is right, you are not afraid of the long journey. Use time to witness your strength, use your strength to win the future, let trust become profit, and use profit to resolve doubts. The market is changing rapidly, and going with the trend is the kingly way. When the trend comes, just do it, don't go against the trend to buy at the bottom, so as not to suffer. Remember not to act on impulse when trading. The market is good for all kinds of dissatisfaction, so you must not hold orders. I believe many people have experienced this. The more you resist, the more panic you will feel, and the floating losses will continue to magnify, making you eat and sleep poorly, and you will miss many opportunities in vain. If you also have these troubles, then you might as well follow my pace and try to see if it can make you suddenly enlightened.
Gold is concerned about the short-term pressure of the 3316 line above, and focuses on the pressure of the 3325 line. If the pressure above the 3325 line is not broken, then the possibility of gold further breaking through the lower space to 3295-3300 in the short term will also increase significantly. Therefore, the main line of gold operation is still based on holding shorts and rebounding shorts. Gold can rebound to the 3316 line and 3325 line before considering participating in short shorts. In terms of operation, we first pay attention to the support of the 3295-3300 line. If the lower support is broken today, the market will reverse to the short side. Otherwise, we will continue to rebound from the bottom and look for opportunities to go long.
From the current trend of gold, pay attention to the support of the 3300-3295 line below, the short-term resistance above pays attention to the vicinity of 3316, and focus on the suppression of the line near 3325. The overall main tone of high-altitude low-multiple cycle participation remains unchanged. In the mid-line position, keep watching and do less, follow orders cautiously, keep the main tone of participating in the trend, and patiently wait for key points to participate.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Go long on gold around 3330-3295, target 3315-3320.
2. Go short on gold around 3315-3325, target 3305-3300.
4-Hour Chart Strategy: Sell High, Buy Low Within 3280-3325 RangeBased on the 4-hour analysis 😎, today's short-term resistance above focuses on the hourly top-bottom conversion level around 3318-3324 🚫. If there's an intraday rebound leaning on this zone, first go short to target a pullback ⬇️. The short-term support below is around 3280 🔍. Overall, rely on the 3280-3325 range to maintain the main strategy of "shorting at highs and buying at lows" in cycles ✅. For prices in the middle of the range, always watch more and act less 👀, be cautious of chasing orders 🚫, and wait patiently for key levels to enter positions 🕙
Strategy:
🚀 Buy @3280 - 3285
🚀 TP 3290 - 3295 - 3305
🚀 Sell @3320 - 3315
🚀 TP 3310 - 3305 - 3295
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
XAU/USD (Gold) Bearish Outlook – H1/H4 Chart AnalysisGold is currently showing signs of weakness within a confirmed downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows on the short-term charts. The price structure suggests continued bearish momentum as sellers maintain control beneath key resistance levels.
At present, a potential bearish opportunity is observed if price retraces near the 3320 zone, which aligns with a recent supply area and resistance in the ongoing downtrend. From this level, price action could continue its downward move in line with trend dynamics.
Entry Zone: Around 3320
Primary Target: 3300 (near-term support level)
Final Target: 3280 (extended target aligning with previous demand zone)
Invalidation/Stop Loss: Above 3340 (a break above this may invalidate the bearish bias)
🔸Disclaimer; This setup is based on technical structure and market flow, not financial advice. Always confirm with your own analysis and risk management plan.
Gold breaks through. Will it continue?After breaking through the position predicted by Quaid on Friday, gold rose strongly and finally maintained the fluctuation range of 3345-3360 that I predicted. Gold bulls are now strong. If there is no major change in the news over the weekend, the price will likely continue to rise after a slight decline at the beginning of next week. I think we can still follow the strategy of Dutou.
The 1-hour moving average of gold continues to diverge with a golden cross and upward bullish arrangement, and the bullish momentum of gold is still there. The current strong support level of gold has also moved up to around 3330. After gold broke through 3330 over the weekend, the price fell back to 3330 and stabilized and rose twice. In the short term, this position has formed a strong support.
There is a high probability that the price will have a small correction at the beginning of next week. We can continue the bullish strategy after the price falls back.
Market transactions should abandon personal preferences. Preconceived subjective consciousness will eventually be taught a lesson by the market. The market is always right. We should follow the fluctuations of the market. Instead of having a head full of random thoughts. There are always traces of market changes, and you need to have the ability to discover them or follow those who have the ability. The market changes rapidly, so pay attention to more timely changes.
GOLD SELL M15 XAU/USD (Gold) 15-Min Chart Analysis – July 10, 2025
The chart shows that price is currently trading around 3323.98, approaching a key supply zone marked in purple. This area is expected to act as resistance, where price may reverse.
Multiple Break of Structure (BOS) levels have been marked, confirming bullish momentum earlier. However, the chart now suggests a potential bearish reversal from the supply zone.
Trade Idea:
Entry Zone: Near the top of the purple resistance area (~3324)
Stop Loss (SL): 3332
Target: 3309 zone (highlighted in blue), which aligns with the demand zone and previous structure
Key Levels:
Resistance Zone: 3324–3332
Support Zones:
First Support: 3319.19
Second Support: 3314.18
Final Target Zone: 3309.84 – 3309.61
The expected move is a sell from the supply zone down to the 3309 target. Price is projected to form lower highs and lower lows as shown by the blue arrow path.
HelenP I. Gold can rebound from trend line and start to move upHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. In this chart, we can see that gold has formed a clear wedge pattern, and within it, we can also observe a smaller triangle forming. This structure reflects a narrowing price range and growing tension between buyers and sellers. After testing the upper boundary near the resistance zone at 3390 - 3410 points twice, gold started moving lower and now approaches the trend line again. This level has already held as support multiple times, and each time the price touched it, it showed a rebound with renewed buying interest. Now the price is again trading near this trend line, around the 1300s area, and a small triangle has formed inside the larger wedge. This triangle may act as a base for the next upward movement. I believe that as long as gold respects this trend line and doesn’t break below the 3250 - 3230 support zone, the probability of upward continuation remains strong. My current target is the 3390 resistance level, which aligns with the top boundary of both the wedge and the resistance zone. A breakout above the triangle may give the price enough momentum to approach this area again. That’s why I remain bullish in this situation and expect a bounce from current levels, followed by an upward move toward the resistance. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment.❤️
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Key point layout suggestionsThe current gold market is showing a weak rebound pattern. Although there was a small rebound on Wednesday, if it cannot stand above 3330, the overall trend will still be weak.
From the daily level, the support level is 3300 and the resistance level is 3335. The price is oscillating between the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Bands, and there is a possibility of upward or downward breakthrough.
Focus on the H4 cycle trend: if the rebound can stand above 3330, the price may further rise to 3335 US dollars;
Once it stands at 3335, it can be basically confirmed that the callback is over, and the subsequent challenge of 3345 resistance level may be repeated.
It is recommended to adopt a long-on-dip strategy near the support level, focusing on the support strength of the 3310-15 area below; the resistance level of 3335-3340 should be paid attention to above.
In terms of specific operations, if the price rebounds to the 3335-3340 range, short selling can be considered; if it pulls back to the 3310-3315 range, long selling can be considered.
Gold shows signs of slowing down, are the bears ready?This wave of bullish pull-up is a complete rebound. With the help of the timeliness of fundamentals, the highest rebound only reached around 3330 and then began to fall. At this time, many people probably think that the short-term trend has begun to change. I still stick to my bearish thinking. The important target pressure is definitely around 3330. As long as this position is under pressure and falls back to 3280 again, it will be shaky. At present, the stop loss is based on the break of 3335. If it really breaks, it will be similar to the break of 3280. Even if 3340-3345 is short, it is also a short-term bull correction. If the falling channel is broken, I can't convince myself to continue to be short and stick to it. Once 3335 breaks, I can really confirm the reversal of the short-term trend. Then 3280 will also be the bottom of the medium term. In short, since I am shorting near 3320-3330 in the direction of the band and the short-term negative, I think that the stop loss will be given to 3335. The stop profit target is uncertain. The channel has not been broken. Now the short-term long and short conversions are frequent. It is definitely the best choice in my own trading system. No one will win all the time. It is too fake to win all the time. Make your moves according to your own ideas without regrets. If this wave of strategy verification fails, everyone is welcome to supervise. We dare to take responsibility and review every judgment.
Report - 9 jully, 2025Macro & Geopolitical Overview
Trump’s Tariff Threats vs Market Optimism
Despite President Trump’s insistence that sweeping tariffs will start August 1 (with no extensions), markets have demonstrated remarkable resilience. Wall Street appears to view these threats as a continuation of negotiation tactics rather than fixed policy.
The S&P 500 is up ~6% YTD, trading close to record highs, underpinned by robust corporate fundamentals and expectations of looser monetary policy.
Banks including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, and Barclays have raised their S&P 500 forecasts, projecting additional 6–11% upside over the next 12 months.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claims tariffs could yield $300bn in revenue this year, with $100bn already collected.
Market Read: Consensus suggests that repeated tariff postponements have desensitized investors, with strategists highlighting the continued strength in mega-cap tech and broader earnings momentum as outweighing trade policy risks.
EU Seeks Temporary Trade Deal
The EU is negotiating a provisional deal to maintain tariffs at 10% and avoid full-scale retaliation. German finance officials have warned of potential countermeasures if no fair resolution is reached.
Implications: A temporary truce could reduce volatility in European equities and alleviate pressure on the euro. Eurozone markets already showed optimism, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.3% and DAX and CAC 40 both gaining 0.6%.
Ukraine’s Financing Strains Intensify
The EU is urgently seeking to fill Ukraine’s projected $19bn budget gap for 2025 as ceasefire prospects diminish. Options under discussion include front-loading loans from G7 support packages and leveraging frozen Russian assets.
Trump’s promise to resume defensive arms deliveries provides a partial relief but does not fully address fiscal shortfalls.
EU leadership aims to finalize support plans before winter to ensure operational stability in Ukraine’s defense and civil services.
Strategic View: Ukraine’s funding gap underscores ongoing geopolitical risk in Eastern Europe, which could impact energy markets, defense equities, and the euro.
Port of Rotterdam Defense Preparations
Europe’s largest port is preparing for potential conflict with Russia by designating military cargo spaces and coordinating with Antwerp. This forms part of an EU-wide rearmament and strategic stockpiling effort.
Proposals include stockpiling critical raw materials (copper, lithium, graphite) and essential supplies.
Supports broader EU resilience efforts to reduce dependency on imports from China and Russia.
Implications: Reinforces the structural bullish thesis on critical raw materials and European defense contractors.
Corporate & Sector Updates
Wall Street Earnings Sentiment Turning Positive
Despite tariff noise, optimism around earnings season is rising.
Big banks expect solid Q2 results supported by labor market strength and easing inflation trends.
Analysts highlight that U.S. corporates have maintained guidance despite higher input costs.
Investment Implication: Reinforces overweight positioning in U.S. large caps, especially in tech and industrials with strong balance sheets.
Former UK PM Sunak Joins Goldman Sachs
Rishi Sunak rejoining Goldman Sachs as senior adviser highlights geopolitical expertise premium at major financial institutions.
Expected to advise on economic and geopolitical strategy while maintaining parliamentary role.
His compensation will support charitable projects, minimizing domestic political fallout.
BCG’s Gaza Fallout
BCG’s involvement in controversial Gaza post-war relocation plans has led Save the Children to cut ties after 20 years, severely damaging the firm's reputation.
Implications: Could impact BCG’s client relationships and broader consulting industry reputational risks, especially in ESG-conscious markets.
BP and Shell Return to Libya
BP and Shell have signed MoUs to explore and redevelop major Libyan oil fields, signaling re-engagement despite ongoing political instability.
Libya aims to raise output from 1.3m to 2m b/d.
These moves underscore Western energy majors' renewed focus on fossil fuels amid investor pressure for returns.
Investment View: Supports medium-term oil production growth; bullish for European oil majors despite ESG headwinds.
Asia & EM Updates
China’s Overcapacity and Deflation Concerns
China criticized local firms and governments for excessive price competition (neijuan), which has entrenched factory gate deflation for 33 consecutive months.
Beijing is signaling potential “supply-side reforms” to manage capacity and stabilize prices.
Overcapacity concerns extend to green sectors (solar, EVs), threatening global price dynamics.
Implications: May support global industrial metals prices if successful. However, near-term risks for global trade tensions remain elevated.
Southeast Asia Tariff Wall
Trump threatens 25–40% tariffs on Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, and Thailand to counter Chinese transshipment practices.
Vietnam accepted a 20% base tariff, rising to 40% for transshipped goods.
Analysts predict higher production costs and consumer prices, potentially slowing ASEAN manufacturing relocation trends.
Strategic View: Increases risk premium on regional supply chains and may provide a tailwind for nearshoring/U.S. manufacturing.
Brics Pushback and De-dollarization Drive
Brics leaders sharply criticized Trump’s new 10% "anti-Brics" tariff threat. The bloc reaffirmed its commitment to reduce USD dependence and reform global financial governance structures.
Market Lens: Accelerated shift toward local currency trade settlements could support alternative reserve currencies and precious metals.
Alternative Assets and Innovation
Tokenized Treasury Funds Surge
Crypto traders and institutions are pivoting to tokenized Treasury and money market funds (assets up 80% YTD to $7.4bn) as an alternative to stablecoins.
Advantages: yield generation, rapid blockchain-based settlement, and new collateral options.
BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and Janus Henderson products seeing robust inflows.
Implications: Bullish for blockchain infrastructure and tokenization service providers. Early-stage adoption curve but strong growth potential.
Sector Themes
Private Equity (PE): U.S. public universities are increasing PE allocations (targeting up to 30%) despite valuation and exit risks. Signals belief in long-term outperformance vs. muted public equity expectations.
Agriculture & EU Budget: CAP subsidies to farmers remain protected despite budget consolidation, driven by strong lobbying. Confirms ongoing policy support for European agricultural income stability.
Energy Transition & Defense: EU budget and port strategies reflect dual focus on green resilience and military preparedness, providing structural support to both ESG and defense-linked investments.
Markets Summary & Outlook
S&P 500 +6% Near all-time highs, supported by earnings optimism.
Euro Stoxx 600 +0.3% EU trade optimism offsetting geopolitical tensions.
DAX +0.6% Strong industrials rebound; trade negotiations key.
FTSE 100 +0.5% Supported by commodity strength and oil majors.
Dollar Index: +0.2%, moderate safe haven demand.
US 10Y yield: ~4.63%, reflecting ongoing macro uncertainty and strong U.S. data.
Gold: Supported by Brics de-dollarization narrative and geopolitical hedging.