USD Is Still Bullish! Wait For Buys!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of July 21-25th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market:
USD
The DXY has run bullish last week, up into an area of Supply, where the momentum hesitates now. Next week may pull back a bit... before continuing higher to the buy side liquidity.
Look out for the short term pullback to the W +FVG for a high probability move higher!
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May profits be upon you.
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DXY trade ideas
USDX at a crucial price point, which will decide trendThe next few candles for USDX price will be extremely important to understand where the dollar index is headed.
Based on that, we'll be able to choose 'which' Forex pairs we can trade, and more importantly 'how' we can trade them.
If price starts to follow the green line, and takes out 99.000, we'll be in an uptrend.
If price goes back to the red line and eventually goes below 96.400, we'll be in a downtrend.
Hopefully price won't consolidate too much, and trend in a particular direction.
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Bearish Move From Key Level
I think that Dollar Index may drop from a key daily horizontal resistance level.
As a confirmation, I spotted an inverted cup & handle pattern on an hourly time frame
and a bearish violation of its neckline.
The market will most likely continue falling at least to 98.36
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USD Falling Wedge Breakout - Bulls Continue to Turn the TideThe USD showed oversold conditions via RSI on both the daily and weekly chart as we began Q3. But, so far, the new quarter has shown a change-of-pace, as the currency has continued to rally with another topside breakout today around CPI data.
The breakout today happened at a big spot - as the long-term fibonacci level at 97.93 had previously helped to hold support back in April, leading to the bounce that ran into May. More recently that price had come in as resistance, until this morning's breakout. And it was in the immediate aftermath of the CPI release that buyers came in to hold the low at that exact level five minutes after the data dropped, and that led to a strong breakout in the USD as bulls took over.
The move is still fresh, however, as we haven't yet seen 23.6% of the sell-off from H1 get clawed back. The retracement from that move plots at 99.63, with the 100.00 level sitting overhead. Below that price, the 99.39 level remains notable as this was a June swing high, and now functions as a follow-through resistance level.
Bigger picture, it's the 101.65-102.00 zone that bulls will need to show up at to make this into anything more than a corrective pullback in a broader bearish trend. - js
The $ Index ~ Elliott Wave Theory in real time.This is an update of a previously uploaded Dollar index Chart. Analysis remains the same and a confirmation at its current location would trigger continuation of the upward move as analysed on the first chart I had posted. Theoretically, the pullback on Monday, 21st July 2025 could be our Wave 2 with Wave 1 being on Thursday, 17th July 2025.
DXY Sell breakdown from bullish trend selling pressure 📊DXY – US Dollar Index Analysis – 4H Timeframe
The US Dollar Index has broken its bullish trend with a strong bearish candle, signaling a possible shift in momentum to the downside
📍 Sell Position Active:
Entry taken at 98.000 following the trendline break and bearish confirmation candle
🎯 Technical Targets /
Demand Zones:
🔹 97.300 – near-term demand zone
🔹 96.500 – key support area to watch for potential reaction
🧠Momentum favors bears after structure break — monitoring price action as we approach target zones
What’s your outlook for DXY? Drop your analysis
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#usdollar #dxy
US Dollar Index (DXY) Chart AnalysisUS Dollar Index (DXY) Chart Analysis
The addition of the US Dollar Index (DXY) to FXOpen’s suite of instruments offers traders potential opportunities. This financial instrument:
→ serves as a measure of the overall strength of the US dollar;
→ is not tied to a single currency pair but reflects the value of the USD against a basket of six major global currencies, including the EUR, JPY, and GBP;
→ allows traders to capitalise on price fluctuations in the currency market;
→ is used in more advanced strategies for hedging risks in portfolios sensitive to sharp movements in the US dollar.
In today’s environment of heightened volatility, this instrument becomes particularly valuable. The active stance of US President Donald Trump — through the implementation of trade tariffs, sanctions, and unpredictable geopolitical rhetoric — gives traders even more reason to closely monitor the DXY chart.
Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart
Moving averages show that the US Dollar Index displayed a predominantly bearish trend during the first half of 2025.
However, the picture shifted in July: the index began rising steadily (already up approximately +1.9% since the beginning of the month), highlighted by the blue ascending trend channel.
This suggests that the DXY may have found support following a prolonged decline, and a shift in market sentiment could be underway: after a bearish phase, a period of consolidation may follow. If this scenario plays out, we could see DXY oscillating between the 97.65 and 99.30 levels – both of which show signs of acting as support and resistance (as indicated by the arrows).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Dollar I Daily CLS I Model 1 I KL OB I Target TRCandleYo Market Warriors ⚔️
It's risky, re-entry, but scared money makes no money.
if you’ve been riding with me, you already know:
🎯My system is 100% mechanical. No emotions. No trend lines. No subjective guessing. Just precision, structure, and sniper entries.
🧠 What’s CLS?
It’s the real smart money. The invisible hand behind $7T/day — banks, algos, central players.
📍Model 1:
HTF bias based on the daily and weekly candles closes,
Wait for CLS candle to be created and manipulated. Switch to correct LTF and spot CIOD. Enter and target 50% of the CLS candle.
For high probability include Dealing Ranges, Weekly Profiles and CLS Timing.
Trading is like a sport. If you consistently practice you can learn it.
“Adapt what is useful. Reject whats useless and add whats is specifically yours.”
David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter
💬 Don't hesitate to ask any questions or share your opinions
A Closer Look at the Role and Recent Volatility of the (DXY)A Closer Look at the Role and Recent Volatility of the US Dollar Index (DXY)
We don’t even need to say that the US Dollar Index (DXY) is one of the most influential benchmarks in global currency markets. The index, which measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies, experiences heightened volatility and presents potential opportunities.
Understanding the DXY: A Macro Lens on the Dollar
The DXY tracks the relative strength of the US dollar versus a weighted currency basket including the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. Although the euro comprises nearly 58% of the index, the DXY reflects broad USD strength or weakness across global markets, not just against a single currency.
Traders and analysts use the DXY as a key macro indicator—to track policy divergence between central banks, to hedge USD exposure, and to assess broader market sentiment. Rising DXY levels often signal tightening US policy or global risk aversion, while declines may reflect weakening growth expectations, dovish Fed policy, or geopolitical stress. In volatile environments like 2025, the DXY serves as a real-time barometer of global confidence in the US economy and dollar-based assets.
Recent Price Swings: Tariffs & Policy Uncertainty Shake the Dollar
Since April, the US Dollar Index has faced one of its most volatile stretches in years, driven by a convergence of Federal Reserve policy uncertainty and new trade tariffs announced by President Trump.
April: “Liberation Day” Tariffs Trigger Market Shock
On 2 April, the announcement of sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs—10% on nearly all imports, with higher duties on selected countries—jolted currency markets. The DXY fell over 2% in a single day. In the following weeks, the index continued to decline as business confidence deteriorated and early signs of recession risk emerged.
May–June: Policy Headwinds Compound Dollar Weakness
As the tariff package took effect, the dollar extended its slide—marking a ~10% drop from its late‑2024 peak, the worst first-half performance in over 50 years. Investors reassessed US growth prospects amid the pressures of trade friction. The Fed responded with a hawkish pause, while President Trump publicly urged for rate cuts, further muddying the policy outlook and pressuring the dollar.
July: Uncertainty Builds
By early July, the DXY had fallen below 97, tallying an approximate 11% year-to-date decline. Analysts cite a “perfect storm” of expanding fiscal deficits, erratic trade decisions, and growing doubts over US policy credibility as key reasons for the dollar’s fall from favour.
Why DXY Matters Now More Than Ever
The DXY has become a real-time gauge of market confidence in US policy stability. The dollar’s sharp decline in 2025 underscores how fragile that confidence can be in the face of aggressive trade measures and uncertain monetary direction.
The introduction of Trump’s tariffs has raised structural concerns among investors:
- Growth expectations have been cut due to higher input costs and supply chain friction.
- The so-called safe-haven appeal of the USD has eroded, with flows shifting to the euro, Swiss franc, and gold.
- Foreign demand for dollar assets has softened, as fears of a prolonged trade conflict and fiscal indiscipline mount.
In this climate, the DXY has evolved into a barometer for geopolitical tension, inflation fears, and investor sentiment towards US leadership.
Bottom Line
The DXY is not just a tool for dollar specialists—it's a key reference for any trader dealing with macro-sensitive instruments. As the global rate environment continues to shift and the US economy shows mixed signals, the DXY may become one of the most revealing indicators to watch and trade in the second half of 2025.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Bearish reversal?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as an overlap support.
Pivot: 99.26
1st Support: 97.81
1st Resistance: 100.26
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Bullish continuation for the Dollar?The price is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 97.68
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 96.98
Why we lik eit:
There is an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 98.88
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
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DOLLAR INDEX TO COMPLETE WAVE 5 TARGET at 98.866In this short video I dive into the technical breakdown of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) as it approaches the anticipated Wave 5 surge, aiming for the key resistance level of 98.866. Using Elliott Wave Theory, this analysis maps out the market’s current structure on the 4 hours timeframe, highlights critical pivot zones, and projects the bullish momentum that could reshape short-term outlooks. Whether you're a seasoned trader or a curious observer, this chart-driven insight offers clarity in the wave progression and what might come next.
DXY LONG SETUP | Skyrocketinggggg
This is a bullish setup on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), taken from the 1H timeframe using Smart Money Concepts.
Price retraced into a clearly defined 1H demand zone where it also tapped a trendline support, creating a strong confluence +an LQC. The zone had internal liquidity swept and price mitigated a bullish order block, indicating potential institutional re-accumulation.
Entry was taken after bullish confirmation within the zone (engulfing candle), aligned with my SMC strategy which targets liquidity grabs and mitigation zones.
🔹 Entry: 98.06
🔹 SL: 97.83 (below the zone and structure)
🔹 TP: 99.11 (previous H1 high & clean supply zone)
🔹 RR: Approx. 4.5R
🔍 Technical Confluences:
Demand zone + OB mitigation + LQC
Trendline reaction (support respected)
Liquidity sweep + BOS (Break of Structure)
Clean imbalance above = fuel for price
Bullish engulfing as confirmation
📰 Fundamental Bias:
Today’s U.S. Jobless Claims came in better than expected, signaling labor market strength. Additionally, Retail Sales data was positive, reinforcing USD strength. These support a hawkish Fed narrative, aligning with our bullish technical setup.
Bias remains bullish unless price closes below 97.83 (invalidation level).
DXYDXY refers to the U.S dollar index ,an index that measures the value of united state dollar relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies ,it was originally developed by FED'S
THE SIX MEJOR CURRENCIES ARE ;
.euro,japaneses yen, pounds sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona,swiss franc.
the index is used by investors ,traders and economist to gauge the overall strength of the U.S dollar in a global currency markets. Its rise and fall will influence trade ,investment and monetary policy decision in fx window.
on 4hr we are rejected and i will watch market open and close on Monday for trade directional bias for the following pairs (AUDUSD,USDCAD,USDZAR,GBPUSD,EURUSD,USDJPY,XAUUSD XAGUSD,XCUUSD,BITCOIN )
NOTE;TRADING IS 100% PROBABILITY,RISK MANAGEMENT IS KEY AND GET ACCOUNTABLITY PARTENER WHO WILL BE CHECKING YOUR WORK..
#DXY #DOLLAR
Dollar MoonHey,
Been a while that I shared a chart here, sorry for that.
I love the place where the dollar is at the moment.
The easiest plays are from these long-term value areas, and this one is also stacked with a trendline making it a bit more obvious for everyone.
The daily trend is broken since yesterday, shifting bullish long-term. I think a daily pullback is likely, perhaps even back to daily lows to fill up demand.
But long-term, I am super bullish for the dollar.
The $ has been bullish since 2008, we all see it.
Time for the next leg up.
Let's go!
Kind regards,
@ mnieveld
DXY – Short-Term OutlookThis week, we’ll be analyzing several currency pairs that are showing promising trading setups.
Unlike previous weeks, we plan to focus on lower timeframes and shorter market cycles to take advantage of more agile trading opportunities.
If the price manages to give us a clear confirmation within the marked zone, we can start considering a potential shift to a bullish trend on DXY.
This would set the stage for preparing long positions, as market structure would likely begin aligning in favor of the bulls.
Until that confirmation arrives, we stay cautious and wait for price action to validate the move.
DXY Bullish Pennant (awaiting breakout)**1-hour timeframe** of the **US Dollar Index (DXY)** with technical analysis applied. Here's the breakdown:
**Technical Analysis Summary:**
**Current Price:**
* Around **98.08**, trading just under the **7 EMA (98.09)**.
**Bullish Structure:**
* A strong **bullish impulse leg** is visible (sharp green candle rally).
* Followed by a **bullish flag/pennant** pattern (marked in red), which is typically a **continuation pattern** in an uptrend.
* The flag is forming after a steep upward move — suggesting **consolidation before potential breakout continuation**.
**EMA Trend Support:**
* **EMA 7, 21, and 50** are aligned bullishly:
* EMA 7 > EMA 21 > EMA 50
* This supports the **short-term uptrend** structure.
**Support Zones:**
* A strong **demand zone** is marked between **97.50–97.70** (highlighted in red), where price previously consolidated before the breakout.
* EMA 50 also sits around **97.72**, reinforcing this as a strong **pullback support level**.
**Possible Scenarios:**
1. **Bullish Continuation:**
* If the price breaks above the flag resistance, it may **rally towards 98.70 → 99.00 → 99.10**.
2. **Bullish Pullback:**
* If price dips to retest the support near **97.80–97.90** or EMA 21, and holds, it may bounce and continue upward.
**Conclusion:**
* **Trend:** Bullish
* **Pattern:** Bullish Pennant (awaiting breakout)
* **Support:** 97.72–97.90
* **Upside Targets:** 98.70 → 99.00+
* **Outlook:** Positive bias continues **as long as price holds above the support zone** and EMAs.