Nasdaq 100 Dips as Tariffs Spark CautionWhile crypto markets rally, U.S. equities have cooled. The Nasdaq 100 dropped by 0.6% following the announcement of new tariffs, particularly those aimed at Canadian goods. Tech stocks are reacting cautiously to these developments, although Nvidia’s record-breaking $4 trillion market cap continues to provide some support for the index.
With major financials such as JPMorgan and Wells Fargo reporting Q2 earnings next week, investors will soon get clarity on how corporate America is coping with higher input costs and global trade tensions.
Technical View (Nasdaq 100):
The index is consolidating between resistance at 22,900 and support at 22,600. A break above 22,900 could reignite the tech rally, while a drop below support may see price test 22,400 and potentially 22,000 in coming sessions.
NASDAQ trade ideas
NAS100 - Follow Progress 2Dear Friends in Trading,
How I see it,
I have summarized the progress and indicated all key levels
Keynotes:
1) I am starting to see strong quality red candles.
2) 22867 is a VERY strong Internal resistance level at this time.
3) 22725 is a VERY strong Internal support level at this time.
I'll keep you posted...please ask if anything is unclear.
I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight.
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.
Nasdaq leads the rally and can move for 3-5 days moreWhile crude oil is declining, tech stocks are gaining momentum: Nasdaq had reached another all-time-high recently and that might not be over: according to statistical studies, it rarely reverses quickly above the upper Bollinger Bands line and the average swing duration is between 17 and 20 days (which gives us several days of potential continuation).
The earnings season fuels growth for many technological stocks, and the “sell America” narrative steps back, so we may see Nasdaq growing as shown in the chart below.
Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your own reserch and never forget to manage your risk!
The W FormationThe question now is, with the W pattern forming with bold bullish price, that has broken a high we had as a target yesterday, tapped on the FVG already and now showing some positive candle stick communication, will we buy to continue breaking the highs, or relax and wait for more confirmation within the fvg range or even lower before going in?
NAS100 Reading Market Structure: When to Trade and When to WaitI'm currently keeping a close eye on the NASDAQ 📉. Price has remained largely range-bound over the past few sessions and continues to show signs of pressure 🔻. While we've seen a short-term rally 🚀, it lacks the conviction and momentum typically seen in stronger trending environments 📊.
When comparing the current conditions to previous trend phases, the difference is clear. Structure is unclear, and there's no confirmation of sustained direction yet. As shown on the chart 📈, we previously saw strong bullish momentum followed by a sharp shift, suggesting indecision in the market 🤔.
In these situations, patience is key ⏳. It's just as important to know when not to trade as it is to know when to act 🎯. For now, I’m choosing to stay on the sidelines until a clearer trend develops.
Not financial advice ⚠️
NAS100 - Follow Progress 1Dear Friends in Trading,
How I see it,
At this time, I need the following:
1) A bounce from 22424 to validate current trend resistance.
2) Or an invalidation of previous demand - A breach of 22424.
3) Or a new ATH - A breach of 22920.
Keynote:
We are still in an extreme bullish environment.
Determine your bias every day and each day.
I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight.
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.
Nasdaq 100: Bearish Signals Near the All-Time HighNasdaq 100: Bearish Signals Near the All-Time High
As the 4-hour chart of the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) shows, the index reached a new all-time high last week. However, the price action suggests that the current pace of growth may not last.
Last week’s strong labour market data triggered a significant bullish impulse. However, the upward momentum has been entirely retraced (as indicated by the arrows).
The tax cut bill signed on Friday, 4 July, by Trump — which is expected to lead to a significant increase in US government debt — contributed to a modest bullish gap at today’s market open. Yet, as trading progressed during the Asian session, the index declined.
This suggests that fundamental news, which could have served as bullish catalysts, are failing to generate sustainable upward movement — a bearish sign.
Further grounds for doubt regarding the index's continued growth are provided by technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) chart, specifically:
→ a bearish divergence on the RSI indicator;
→ price proximity to the upper boundary of the ascending channel, which is considered resistance.
It is reasonable to suggest that the market may be overheated and that bullish momentum is waning. Consequently, a correction may be forming — potentially involving a test of the 22,100 level. This level acted as resistance from late 2024 until it was broken by strong bullish momentum in late June.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NAS100 - Stock market is waiting for tariffs!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. Maintaining the ascending channel will lead to the continuation of the Nasdaq's upward path to higher targets, but if it does not rise and corrects towards the demand limits, you can buy the Nasdaq index with appropriate reward and risk.
Three months ago, Donald Trump postponed the imposition of severe retaliatory tariffs, granting America’s major trading partners more time to reach new agreements that Washington views as “fairer.” Now, as the White House’s July 9 deadline approaches, only two official trade deals have been finalized—one with the United Kingdom and another with Vietnam. As for China, merely a fragile temporary truce has been reached, which has so far prevented any additional tariffs from being enforced.
Although reports suggest promising progress in negotiations with India, Japan, and South Korea, no final agreements have been secured with these countries yet. Interestingly, talks with the European Union—which had previously stalled—have suddenly taken a positive turn, and prospects for a deal with Canada in the coming days have also improved.
However, given the limited time left, it seems unlikely that trade agreements with all of America’s 18 key partners will be reached before the deadline. This situation has raised a critical question for the markets: Will Trump set a new deadline for the remaining countries, or will the suspended tariffs be reinstated?
The prevailing view is that the U.S. president will once again resort to threats before granting any extensions—this time not merely by reviving the “Liberation Day” tariffs, but also by promising even heavier tariffs to extract the last concessions from the remaining trade partners.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bassett stated that if no agreements are reached by August 1, tariffs will revert to the levels announced in April. He also emphasized that Washington’s core strategy in these trade talks is to apply maximum pressure. According to Bassett, letters will be sent to various countries, outlining the August 1 deadline for reaching deals. This news, which broke during the market’s closing hours, sparked a wave of risk appetite in the financial markets.
In a week when the U.S. economic calendar is notably devoid of major data releases, investors are focusing their attention on the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June FOMC meeting—a document that could offer fresh insights into the trajectory of interest rates for the second half of the year.
June’s strong employment report, which exceeded market expectations, has effectively dashed hopes for an interest rate cut this month. Now, if the positive economic momentum persists, the likelihood of a rate cut in the September meeting may also gradually be priced out by the markets.
According to data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, U.S. employers announced 47,999 job cuts in June, marking a sharp decline from 93,816 in the previous month. Compared to June of last year, layoffs have dropped by 2%. However, total job cuts in the second quarter of 2025 reached 247,256—a 39% increase from the same period last year (177,391) and the highest second-quarter layoff figure since 2020.
With no significant economic reports scheduled for the coming days, investors will be closely analyzing Wednesday night’s Fed minutes and the limited remarks from central bank officials—statements where every word has the potential to significantly move the markets.
US100/Analysis *📊 US100 (NAS100) – 4H Analysis & Trade Signal*
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*🔎 Chart Observation:*
- *Current Price:* 22,764
- *Structure:* Market rejected downside strongly with a *Bull Wick* (demand zone reaction).
- *RSI (14):* 60.38
- Momentum is rising again, just under overbought.
- *Bearish divergence* still visible, but price is defending structure.
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*📌 Key Levels:*
- *Support:* 22,715
- *Resistance:* 22,865 → 23,000
- *Strong Bullish Zone:* 22,720–22,750
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*📈 Trade Idea: BUY Setup*
- *Entry:* 22,760–22,770
- *SL:* 22,690 (below wick)
- *TP1:* 22,865
- *TP2:* 23,000
- *TP3 (optional):* 23,150 if breakout occurs
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*🧠 Smart Money View:*
- Likely a *liquidity sweep* below wick zone.
- Demand zone got respected → smart money possibly reloading longs.
- If next candle closes bullish, more confirmation for continuation.
NAS100 High-Risk Momentum Play with Potential H&S SetupNAS100 is hovering near all-time highs. While a retest of the weekly trendline remains likely, this idea aims to ride the current bullish momentum. The plan anticipates a short-term pullback to recent lows to potentially form a head and shoulders pattern before a move lower toward the weekly trendline. This is a high-risk setup I’d typically avoid, but the strong bullish weekly close adds some weight. Two entries provided - one with a tighter TP for a quicker reaction.
Pullback before next leg up
NASDAQ’s looking weak short term. We’ve seen multiple rejections from the highs, an M pattern forming on the daily, and RSI divergence creeping in on the daily — momentum is clearly fading. I already took profit around 21980. And a few small swings between the range since 3rd of June.
The rally off the tariff drop was sharp, but it feels mechanical. Bulls look tired here. You can see price is stalling — pushing into the same highs but getting nowhere. Classic signs of distribution.
That said, this isn’t the start of a full-blown bear market. The long-term trend remains bullish. AI investment is still piling into the U.S., tech’s still leading globally, and structurally we haven’t broken down yet. Some weakness is starting to show though.
But short term, I think we see a pullback. The Fed’s still sitting on the fence with rate cuts, which is creating uncertainty. Add that to the current geopolitical tensions, and there’s enough on the table to justify a temporary risk-off move.
If price breaks and closes above 21,860, I’ll reassess and potentially shift back to a bullish bias. Until then, I’m leaning short and letting price action do the talking.
My key downside levels:
TP1: 21,483 — scale out and protect.
TP2: 21,322 — potential bounce from this area.
TP3: 21,145 — structure starts to weaken.
TP4: 20,894 — bears starting to control and a deeper flush, I’ll reassess bias at this level.
SL @ 21850 on my second entry short
Short term: pullback likely.
Big picture: still bullish — but bulls need to reset before any next leg up.
Nas Long to clear HH liquidity before correctionHTF Context – Monthly / Weekly / Daily
• Big Beautiful Bill (Trump Tax + Spending Bill)
o Passed July 4th, acting as a stimulus.
o Markets historically rally on fiscal stimulus expectations (tax cuts + spending packages).
o This fuels bullish sentiment short-term, but long-term raises debt, inflation risk, and rate hike concerns.
• Seasonality
o July is typically strong for equities, especially tech, with mid-July often marking local tops before August pullbacks.
• Monthly structure
o Strong bullish monthly candles.
o Next major fib retracements if rejected: 38.2% ~20,398, 50% ~19,625, 61.8% ~18,852.
• Weekly / Daily structure
o HH-HL sequence continues.
o Price in premium zone, approaching major supply block 23,200–23,300.
o Daily BOS not broken downwards yet.
________________________________________
Key Levels
• Major supply / liquidity magnet: 23,200–23,300 (sell-side OB in futures, uncollected liquidity above HH)
• Recent swing high: 22,900
• Daily pivot: 22,470
• Intraday demand zone: 22,450–22,350 (4H wedge base + VWAP)
• Weekly support shelf: 22,100–22,200 (if lost, major trend shift bearish)
________________________________________
My View – Most Likely Path
1. Price is likely to sweep the liquidity above recent highs into the 23,200–23,300 supply zone.
o Why? Market rarely leaves liquidity uncollected. This move traps breakout buyers and hits stops above HHs.
o Big Beautiful Bill fuels the final squeeze higher as algorithms price in fiscal stimulus.
2. After liquidity sweep above 23,200–23,300:
o Expect strong rejection from that zone.
o Institutions offload positions into trapped retail longs.
o Price pulls back towards daily and weekly support zones for reaccumulation.
3. Alternate scenario (less likely)
o Immediate sell-off from current levels without sweeping HH.
o Weak move; would still expect a revisit higher later to clear liquidity before a proper downtrend.
________________________________________
Trade Setups – Intraday & Swing
Intraday Long (Most Likely)
• Bias: Bullish continuation
• Entry Zone: 22,450–22,350 (4H demand + VWAP)
• Trigger: 5m/15m BOS up
• Stop: Below 22,300.
• Targets: First at 22,615, next at 22,845, final at 23,200–23,300.
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Intraday Short (Countertrend / Liquidity Sweep Reversal)
• Bias: Short from supply after liquidity grab
• Entry Zone: 23,200–23,300
• Trigger: Sweep of HH with rejection wick or bearish engulfing candle
• Stop: Above 23,350 (structure invalidation).
• Targets: First at 22,845, then 22,600, extend to 22,450 if momentum accelerates.
________________________________________
Swing Long (Continuation)
• Bias: Bullish trend intact
• Entry: After retest of daily pivot (22,470) or 4H demand (22,350–22,450) with 4H CHoCH + BOS up.
• Stop: Below 22,200 (weekly support break invalidates).
• Targets: 22,845 then 23,200–23,300. Blue sky if above.
________________________________________
Swing Short (Only if structure breaks)
• Trigger: Daily close below 22,200
• Bias: Bearish trend shift
• Targets: 21,800 first, then 21,000 major fib cluster and weekly MA.
________________________________________
Summary – My Final Opinion
Price is in a strong uptrend fuelled by fiscal stimulus, rate cuts and tarrif hopes . I think it will sweep the liquidity above 23,200–23,300 before any deeper pullback or trend reversal. Any rejection from that supply zone will be the cue to short for a structural retracement. Until then, I’ll keep buying dips aligned with the HTF bullish structure.
NASDAQ Key Levels July 7 2025If NY fails to reclaim 22,755–780 early in the week, expect a grind back toward 22,644 → 22,600, with 22,520 in play only if volume confirms. Reclaiming and holding above 22,800+ would invalidate this bearish setup.
Watch for trap volume, delta reversals, and volume imbalances at all key zones before entering.
22,880 – 🔻 Weekly wick top
➤ Major rejection zone with a stop cluster sitting above.
22,800–820 – Possible NY trap zone
➤ Trap absorption detected here on footprint — watch New York for rejection or breakout.
22,755–22,780 – Retest zone
➤ Multiple trap wicks with low delta on 1H/15M. Likely to bait breakout traders before fading.
22,700 – Structural demand / pivot point
➤ A clean break + hold below = bearish market shift.
22,644 – ✅ Session low / Take Profit 1
➤ If 22,700 breaks, this is the first clean downside target.
22,600 – Daily value zone
➤ High-probability liquidity target if selling extends below 22,644.
22,520 – Final sweep target
➤ Only likely if New York session sells off hard mid-to-late week.
NASDAQ Key Levels July 7 2025If NY fails to reclaim 22,755–780 early in the week, expect a grind back toward 22,644 → 22,600, with 22,520 in play only if volume confirms. Reclaiming and holding above 22,800+ would invalidate this bearish setup.
Watch for trap volume, delta reversals, and volume imbalances at all key zones before entering.
22,880 – 🔻 Weekly wick top
➤ Major rejection zone with a stop cluster sitting above.
22,800–820 – 🧱 Possible NY trap zone
➤ Trap absorption detected here on footprint — watch New York for rejection or breakout.
22,755–22,780 – 🔁 Retest zone
➤ Multiple trap wicks with low delta on 1H/15M. Likely to bait breakout traders before fading.
22,700 – ⚠️ Structural demand / pivot point
➤ A clean break + hold below = bearish market shift.
22,644 – ✅ Session low / Take Profit 1
➤ If 22,700 breaks, this is the first clean downside target.
22,600 – 🎯 Daily value zone
➤ High-probability liquidity target if selling extends below 22,644.
22,520 – 🧨 Final sweep target
➤ Only likely if New York session sells off hard mid-to-late week.
NAS100 CAUTION - Realistic Perspective!!Dear Friends in Trading,
How I see it,
This rising channel represents severe overbought greed territory.
A very big correction might be around the corner or in the near future.
Daily and Weekly RSI Divergence could be forced to re-balance at any time.
Keynote:
This is not a contradiction of my previous NASDAQ post.
Short-Term strong bullish price action can still prevail.
But please keep this big picture in mind from here on end.
Feel free to ask questions if anything is unclear.
I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight.
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.
US100 SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
US100 SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 22,684.7
Target Level: 22,082.0
Stop Loss: 23,085.2
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 10h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
NASDAQ | - Structure Refined | Bullish Intent Into Next WeekPair: NAS100
Bias: Bullish
Timeframes: 4H, 2H, LTFs
• 4H broke structure to the upside with a new HH — clear sign of bullish intent stepping in.
• 2H gives clarity on the move — beginning of the week was messy, but price cleaned up nicely and gave us refined structure to work with.
• Now we wait for mitigation into the OB zone to see if price respects and gives us the setup.
🔹 Entry: After price mitigates OB and confirms with CHoCH on LTFs
🔹 Entry Zone: Marked OB zone — wait for confirmation
🔹 Target: Near structure highs — continuation if bulls step in
Mindset: Messy beginnings don’t mean bad outcomes. Structure eventually reveals the truth — just stay patient and ready.
Bless Trading!
Nasdaq Approaches 23,000 Mark for the First TimeOver the past five trading sessions, the U.S. Nasdaq index has posted a gain of more than 1.5%, supported by a recent rise in market confidence that has pushed the equity index to new all-time highs. The NFP employment data released yesterday surprised markets with 147,000 new jobs, compared to the 111,000 expected, reflecting a recovery in the labor market that could ultimately support domestic consumption in the U.S.. This has helped maintain investor confidence in equities, supporting a bullish bias in the Nasdaq in recent sessions.
Sustained Uptrend
Since the early days of April, the Nasdaq has maintained a solid upward trend, with no relevant signs of selling pressure that would threaten the current bullish structure. As a result, the long-term bias remains clearly bullish within the broader market outlook. However, it's worth noting that a growing sense of indecision has emerged in recent sessions, reflected in the candlestick patterns, which could open the door to short-term bearish corrections.
Technical Indicators
MACD: The MACD histogram continues to hover around the neutral zero line, indicating a balance in moving average strength during recent sessions. If this pattern continues, it may result in a more defined period of price neutrality in the short term.
RSI: The presence of consistent RSI highs, alongside higher price highs in the Nasdaq, has led to the formation of a bearish divergence. This suggests that market equilibrium has been affected by recent bullish momentum, and could lead to price pullbacks in the upcoming sessions.
Key Levels to Watch:
23,000 – Psychological barrier: A tentative resistance level in the short term due to the lack of clear technical references. A breakout above this level could reinforce the current bullish bias and signal a more sustained upward trend.
21,800 – Nearby support: An area aligned with a recent neutral technical zone, which may act as relevant support in the event of a short-term pullback.
21,000 – Key support: A level that coincides with the 50-period simple moving average. A break below this level could put the current bullish structure at risk and pave the way for a more significant downward move.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
NASDAQ 100 TRADING PLAN
⸻
🧠 US100 Multi-Timeframe Playbook
(W1 → D1 → H4 → M30 → M5)
⸻
🔹 Higher Timeframe Context
WEEKLY (Strong Uptrend):
• Key Levels:
– ATH supply: 22,800–23,000
– Support shelf (prior resistance): 22,100–22,200
– 50-SMA: 20,400
– 200-SMA: 16,100
• Summary: Bullish structure is intact as long as price holds above 22,100–22,200 and the long-term trendline.
DAILY (Bullish but stretched):
• Key Levels:
– Upper Bollinger Band: 23,025
– Mid-band & 20-SMA: 22,430
– 50-SMA: 21,985
• Summary: RSI at 66 and MACD > 0 but flattening. This suggests bullish momentum may be cooling — odds of a pause or pullback rising.
4-HOUR (Wedge – Late-Trend Exhaustion Risk):
• Key Levels:
– Rising wedge: upper rail ≈ 23,200, lower ≈ 22,450
– 8-EMA: 22,655 | 21-EMA: 22,425
– Anchored VWAP (from June low): 22,350
• Summary: Ribbon still bullish, but volume and MACD momentum are plateauing. A break below 22,450/VWAP confirms a corrective leg.
30-MINUTE (Neutral to Weak):
• Key Levels:
– Descending micro-trendline: 22,725
– Rising support: 22,690
– Session range: High = 22,845 | Low = 22,690
• Summary: Price is coiled near the apex. EMAs curling downward. Market decision point imminent.
5-MINUTE (Immediate Bear Bias):
• Key Levels:
– Live VWAP: 22,752
– 9-EMA sloping down
– Stochastic: mid-range
• Summary: Price remains below VWAP and 9-EMA. Short-term sellers in control unless VWAP is reclaimed.
⸻
📈 Trade Setups
1. Swing Long – Buy the Dip
• Let price wash through 22,450–22,350 (H4 wedge floor + VWAP zone)
• Enter if:
– 30m bullish engulfing or hammer closes back above 22,450
– AND 5m VWAP is reclaimed
• Initial Stop: Below liquidity sweep or 22,300 – whichever is lower – minus 0.25 × ATR(14, H4) ≈ 30 pts → around 22,270
• Targets:
– T1: 22,845
– T2: 23,200
– Leave runner for blue-sky continuation
• Comment: With weekly trend. Wait for deep retracement. Great RR ≈ 1:3+
⸻
2. Intraday Short – Mean Reversion
• Trigger Zone: 22,725–22,760 (broken trendline + 5m VWAP)
• Enter if:
– 5m rejection wick or bearish engulfing forms on avg+ volume
• Stop: Above 22,800 + buffer (≈ 22,820)
• Targets:
– T1: 22,600
– T2: 22,450
– Optional T3: 22,350 (VWAP)
• Comment: Counter-trend, so treat as scalp. Tight stops. Demand at least 1:2 RR.
⸻
3. Breakout Long – Trend Continuation
• Entry Criteria:
– 30m close above 22,845 with 150%+ average volume
– 5m bull flag holds above breakout level
• Stop:
– First 30m candle close back inside the range
– Or 22,770 (flag base) — whichever happens first
• Targets:
– T1: 23,025 (Daily BB)
– T2: 23,300 (measured move)
• Comment: Only take if strong volume confirms new participation. Avoid during Asia or illiquid hours.
⸻
⚙️ Execution & Risk Guidelines
• Risk per trade: ≤ 1% account (limit counter-trend trades to 0.5%)
• Sizing formula:
Contracts = Account Risk / (Stop pts × $ per pt)
• ATR reference:
– ATR(14, H4) ≈ 120 pts
– ATR(14, 30m) ≈ 80 pts
• Move stop to break-even once price moves 0.75 × stop distance in your favor
• Never run trades #2 and #3 at the same time → directional conflict
• Watch out for macro data (e.g., NFP, CPI) — can override intraday structure
⸻
⏱ What to Watch (In Sequence)
1. Overnight – Does price stay pinned below the 30m 21-EMA, or start to float above it?
2. London Open – First test of the 22,725–22,760 zone: fade or reclaim?
3. NY Open – Volume surge confirms either breakout (#3) or fade setup (#2)
4. End of Day – A close below 22,450 on volume = deeper pullback risk toward 22,000 next week
⸻
🔍 Final Thoughts
The trend is still your friend — but the daily and H4 chart are stretched. Let the trade come to you:
• Buy the flush only if we dip into confluence support and reclaim key levels (#1)
• Buy the breakout only if high volume confirms continuation (#3)
• Everything in-between is a scalp fade (#2) — execute cleanly, with defined risk, and respect trend structure.
This is for educational purposes. Fit these into your system and risk tolerance.
⸻