JPYAUD trade ideas
AUDJPY SHORT FORECAST Q3 D10 W28 Y25AUDJPY SHORT FORECAST Q3 D10 W28 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 👀
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
AUD-JPY Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
AUD-JPY is trading in a
Strong uptrend and the pair
Made a bullish breakout of
The key horizontal level
Of 95.650 which is now a
Support and the breakout
Is confirmed so we are bullish
Biased and we will be expecting
A further bullish move up
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Live trade: AUD JPY long Entry 95.71
Nothing has happened to alter my 'risk in bias'. A, I've been waiting for a 'nice but of support' to place a stop loss behind. And I'm comfortable with the 1hr swings that have formed.
It's a 20 pip stop loss with 30 pip profit target.
The risk to the trade is a fresh bout of negative sentiment
AUDJPY – Liquidity Trap Short Setup
Box framed between 95.961–94.719, with layered buyside liquidity swept at 95.859 and 95.961. Price printed a bearish body below structural shift (-CISD), confirming trap activation.
Entry executed post-shift → targeting sellside liquidity at 95.521, with extended draw potential toward 94.719.
Liquidation heatmap shows dim clusters above, bright gold clusters below = strong directional bias.
Narrative: smart money sweep complete → trap symmetry locked → discount magnet engaged. 📉🎯
AUD_JPY WILL KEEP GROWING|LONG|
✅AUD_JPY is going up
Now and the pair made a bullish
Breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 95.600 and the breakout
Is confirmed so we are bullish
Biased and further growth
Is to be expected
LONG🚀
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
AUDJPY – Resistance Rejection Short Into Sellside Draw
Identified a key resistance zone at 96.224–96.273, with price showing rejection and wicking behavior after sweeping buyside liquidity at 96.271. Entered short following a decisive reaction candle. Trade is structured with stop loss above the swing at 96.303 and TP set at 96.010, targeting a clean overshoot of today’s NDOG (95.944).
🔹 Setup: Resistance rejection + liquidity sweep
🔹 Bias: Short into engineered sellside draw
🔹 SL: 96.303 | TP: 96.010
🔹 Narrative: Trap-to-draw execution with structure-backed confirmation
A disciplined short campaign rooted in polarity logic and session magnet flow. Let the market walk its choreography. 🩶
AUDJPY Buy Stop Setup | Trend Continuation in FocusAUDJPY is in an established uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows. A buy stop is positioned above the recent swing high to confirm bullish continuation. The setup includes a defined stop-loss below the previous higher low to manage risk and two target profit levels (TP1 & TP2) aligned with key resistance zones. This approach favors trend-following traders seeking confirmation of upward momentum before entry.
AUDJPY – Resistance Rejection at 96.224–96.273
Executed a disciplined short off the 96.224–96.273 resistance zone, which aligned with bearish structure and rejection candle confirmation. Entry followed lower high formation, with stops placed above the recent swing at 96.303 to allow for volatility breathing room. Target set at 96.079, aligning with a clean sellside draw. Price showed momentum alignment and polarity flip reaction off resistance.
🔹 Strategy: Trap-to-draw execution
🔹 Entry: Post-rejection confirmation
🔹 SL: Above 96.303 swing
🔹 TP: Into 96.079 liquidity magnet
A precise, structure-backed short targeting engineered liquidity
AUD/JPY LIVE TRADE UPDATESwing Trade Update – Gap Down Open
We entered this trade last Thursday based on our VMS swing setup.
When the market opened Sunday, price gapped down against us.
Now we’re watching for:
*Price to find support at this level
*A potential bounce and continuation in trade direction
📌 The gap doesn’t break the setup—structure will tell the truth. Patience required.
AUDJPY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for AUDJPY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 96.835.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 93.887 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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SYMMETRYHello awesome traders! 👋
Hope you’ve managed to grab some solid pips from the markets this week. As we head into the weekend, I’m wrapping things up by dropping a few clean chart setups for you to review and reflect on.
Enjoy the weekend, recharge well — and I’ll see you sharp and ready next week for more structure-led opportunities.
📌 Pattern Breakdown
We had a beautiful AB=CD symmetry setup, with a slight twist:
🔹 AB = CD structure extended slightly beyond traditional symmetry
🔹 CD stretched into the 127.2% fib projection — a known trap zone
🔹 Price tagged 95.980 and reacted with strong bullish momentum from the PCZ (95.98–95.58)
🔹 This zone also aligned with 161.8% fib extension support = strong confluence
🎯 Target Structure
Following the rejection, price is now rotating upward, moving toward:
✅ Target 1:
• 23.6% = 97.16
• 61.8% = 97.972
📍 Partial TP booked at 23.6%
🧭 Watching price behavior here before deciding whether to continue toward…
🔄 Target 2 Zone:
• 78.6% = 98.508
🧠 Key Concepts in Play
✅ AB=CD symmetry extended to 127.2%
✅ Valid PCZ rejection from confluence zone
✅ Partial profit taken at TP1
✅ Measured continuation play in motion
✅ Structure-led management with clear invalidation
🗝 Final Thoughts
AUDJPY gave us a clean extended symmetry rejection — and now we’re in the follow-through phase. The reaction off the 127% extension shows that even stretched patterns can hold when structure aligns.
We’ve locked some gains at the 23.6% zone and will let the rest play out or reassess early next week depending on price behavior around the 61.8% mark.
“Even when symmetry stretches — the reaction reveals the conviction.”
Unique Bearish Setup Emerges for AUD/JPY This QuarterFenzoFx—AUD/JPY is bullish, currently testing the critical resistance and order block at 97.3. This level coincides with the VWAP and volume profile point of interest. Bears are interested in adding short positions at the 97.3 price level.
Since this level is highly important and has the potential to change the trend, it is necessary to form a double top at this price, which has not happened before.
From a technical perspective, if a double top pattern forms at 97.3 and this level holds, a new bearish trend will likely emerge. In this scenario, the 93.9 level is likely to be targeted.
AUD/JPY SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are going short on the AUD/JPY with the target of 92.517 level, because the pair is overbought and will soon hit the resistance line above. We deduced the overbought condition from the price being near to the upper BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is green and gives us a counter-signal.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Trump v Powell: Round 6A day that looked like it was drifting into a 'summer lull' kind of day, suddenly had bouts of volatility when the TRUMP / POWELL SAGA re-emerged. Which is making it difficult to hold an opinion at the moment. If the president wins the battle and the FED cut rates more than expected, the USD (should) weaken. If Mr Powell (and the FED board) remain steadfast and keep the wait and see narrative, the USD (should) remain bouyed.
Yesterday's AUD JPY trade stopped out when the market ultimately decided the data didn't move the dial for potential rate cuts. It turned out that 'USD JPY long' would have been the optimal trade. And that's the risk you take when placing a trade 'post data' but 'pre US open'.
Of course, the risk to waiting for the US open is that the opportunity could have passed. It's a conundrum I don't think will ever have a clear answer.
Ultimately, I don't regret yesterday's trade given the information I had at that moment.
Inflation remains 'sticky' in the UK and a lot of emphasis is being put on Thursday's employment data. A 'soft' number will put the BOE in a bind of needing rate cuts to stimulate the economy, but unable to cut due to high inflation.
We also have upcoming AUD employment data, an improvement on last month is forecast, which should see the RBA remain hawkish. And I continue to hold my view that 'fundamentally' AUD JPY long is a good trade. It's just a case of waiting for the right moment. I have read that this week's JPY strength could be attributed to profit taking following recent weakness and ahead of elections in Japan this coming weekend.
Currently, it's a case of staying patient, maintaing a narrative. And trade when you feel like momentum backs up bias. If you only feel comfortable with a 1.2:1 risk reward, I would suggest that could be wise for the time being.
Tricky times, please feel free offervthoughtd or questions:
AUD JPY long. Entry: 97.13The market appears to like the month on month below forecast US CPI data.
The JPY is currently the weakest, I've therefore entered a straightforward 'risk on' AUD JPY catalyst trade.
It's a 20 pip stop loss with 30 pip profit target.
The risk to the trade is if the market changes its mind, or simply negative sentiment at the US open.
FOREX: Weekly Review: The week starting Monday 7 was a fairly sanguine week. With limited US data on the agenda, all eyes were on commentary surrounding the July 9 tariff deadline. Ultimately, any tariff concerns were be brushed aside when a 'fresh deadline' of August 2 was announced. Any attempts at fresh escalation following the announcement were met with ambiguity, as the market continues to hold the view that the president's bark is worse than his bite.
It was very pleasing to see the JPY weaken so much, without reading about a particular cause for JPY weakness, I put it down to a possible re-emergence of the 'carry trade'. Which is hopefully good news moving forward.
It was also nice to see the AUD so strong. A data dependent hold, combined with the overall positive risk environment and the rising price of copper, all contributed to AUD JPY long being a very viable trade all week.
The RBNZ also held rates, but with not as hawkish a narrative as the RBA.
The GBP continues to remain under pressure, the narrative surrounding the fiscal competency of the government compounded by 'soft' GDP data. And if anyone thinks a 'relative fundamental' GBP AUD short is a good idea, I wouldn't disagree.
I'm finding it difficult to have faith in the direction of the USD, caught between the post NFP strength / higher for longer narrative. And the overall market consensus that rate cuts will be coming soon.
All in all, I'll begin the new week keeping an eye on the tariff narrative, but, barring any 'strong negativity' (I'll let the VIX decide how negative the news is), I'll continue to hold a view that 'risk on' trades are viable. And with US CPI in the limelight, 'hopefully' a 'soft number' will compound the 'risk on narrative'.
On a personal note, it was a week of two trades, both AUD JPY long. The first hit profit and the second trade stopped out, interestingly, I was a lot more confident in the stop loss of the second trade, which goes to show no matter how confident we feel, we can only ever expect a 50% win rate.
Please excuse my lack of narrative at end of the week. On Thursday I suffered a strong migraine, which wiped me out for 48 hours. And is a reminder to myself to get my eyes tested, and perhaps to drink more water in this unusually hot UK weather. But if anyone did continue to short the JPY on Thursday and Friday, I would suggest it was a very valid trade idea.
Results:
Trade 1: AUD JPY +1.2
Trade 2: AUD JPY -1
Total = +0.2%