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Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar

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USDJPY downtrend resistance at 147.30The USDJPY pair is currently trading with a bearish bias, aligned with the broader downward trend. Recent price action shows a retest of the falling resistance, suggesting a temporary relief rally within the downtrend. Key resistance is located at 147.30, a prior consolidation zone. This level will be critical in determining the next directional move. A bearish rejection from 147.30 could confirm the resumption of the downtrend, targeting the next support levels at 145.60, followed by 145.10 and 144.65 over a longer timeframe. Conversely, a decisive breakout and daily close above 147.30 would invalidate the current bearish setup, shifting sentiment to bullish and potentially triggering a move towards 147.70, then 148.14. Conclusion: The short-term outlook remains bearish unless the pair breaks and holds above 145.30. Traders should watch for price action signals around this key level to confirm direction. A rejection favours fresh downside continuation, while a breakout signals a potential trend reversal or deeper correction. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
USD/JPY bears getting trapToday's main data release was the weekly jobless claims figures, which came out better than expected at 227K vs. 236K eyed, down from 232K the week before. In response, the dollar extended its rebound, and the USD/JPY has turned positive on the day after yesterday's reversal. In recent days the UJ has been pushing higher, thanks to a weakening JPY amid threats of tariffs from the US. But we have also seen some support for the dollar owing to expectations that the tariffs will prove inflationary and that could limit Fed rate cuts. The UJ has been forming a few bullish price signals and now finds itself above the 21-day exponential average. Stops resting above those inverted hammer candles from yesterday and June 23 could be in trouble. Can we see price rally towards those liquidity pools? Support at 146.00 held firm after a brief dip below it. Next support is around 145.00 then 144.25 and 144.00 thereafter. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
USDJPY Analysis : Bearish Setup from Reversal Zone + Target⚠️ Overview: The USDJPY 4H chart reveals a smart money-driven bearish setup, unfolding precisely from a major Reversal Zone, which aligns with a key supply area. Price action is now offering high-probability short trade opportunities, supported by structural breaks, clear CHoCHs (Change of Character), and BOS (Breaks of Structure). 🔎 Detailed Technical Breakdown: 🔹 Bearish Pattern + Channel Formation: The pair formed a bearish price pattern earlier, which initiated the previous downtrend. This move developed into a well-formed descending channel, showing controlled distribution from the institutional side. The channel break marked a liquidity grab below previous lows, trapping retail sellers before shifting structure. 🔹 Channel Insider Demand + Breakout: After reaching the Channel Insider Demand, USDJPY made a strong bullish push, causing a Minor BOS — a sign of temporary bullish pressure. However, this move served to rebalance price into a premium zone, which is the current Reversal Zone. This zone lies near previous imbalance/fair value gaps and coincides with a supply structure, making it a high-reaction area. 🔹 Reversal Zone (Premium Area): Price tapped the Reversal Zone and began rejecting aggressively. This reaction indicates the presence of large sellers and order blocks. The current price action now displays a Minor CHoCH, suggesting a short-term bearish shift in order flow. This is a textbook case of premium vs. discount pricing, where price seeks liquidity above recent highs before reversing to more balanced zones. 🔹 Price Flow Expectations (Downside Targets): The first confirmation of bearish continuation will come with a clean break below the Minor CHoCH level (~144.400). Following that, momentum is expected to carry USDJPY toward: 🥇 Target 1: 144.00 – Local support / liquidity pocket 🥈 Target 2: 143.00 – Key psychological & structural support 🥉 Target 3: 142.00–142.50 Zone – Marked as the Next Reversal Zone, which could act as demand This setup remains valid as long as the price remains below 147.200, which is the high of the Reversal Zone. A breakout above this invalidates the bearish thesis. 🧠 MMC (Mind Market Curve) Interpretation: The chart clearly respects Mind Curve Theory structure: CHoCH/BOS confirms internal order flow Reversal zone is placed at a curve top (premium) Support base (discount zone) is yet to be revisited The curve shape guides a possible rounded rejection scenario, pushing price down into the major support, aligning with smart money liquidity grab behavior. 📊 Strategic Insight: This is a classic smart money trap — fake bullish breakout, quick grab of early breakout traders’ stops, followed by a decisive turn from supply. Traders should monitor: Candle structure at current levels Reaction to minor CHoCH zone (~144.400)
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
USD/JPY: A High-Clarity Setup in a Coiling MarketFor weeks, the market has been choppy and difficult, grinding accounts down with indecisive price action. Many traders are getting stomped by the noise. This post is designed to cut through that chaos with a single, high-clarity trade idea based on a powerful fundamental story and a clean technical picture. The focus is on the USD/JPY, where a major catalyst (US CPI) is about to meet a tightly coiling chart pattern. The Fundamental Why 📰 Our entire thesis is now supported by both qualitative and quantitative analysis. The core driver is the profound monetary policy divergence between the U.S. and Japan, which manifests as a powerful Interest Rate Differential. The Core Driver: The Bank of Japan maintains its ultra-easy policy while the Fed is in a "hawkish hold," creating a significant interest rate gap of over 400 basis points that fuels the carry trade. Quantitative Validation: Our new analysis confirms this is the primary driver. We found a strong positive correlation of 0.54 between the USD/JPY exchange rate and this Interest Rate Differential. This provides a robust, data-backed reason for our long bias. This creates a fundamental chasm between the two currencies, representing a compelling long-term tailwind for USD/JPY. The Technical Picture 📊 The 4-hour chart perfectly visualizes the market's current state. The Coiled Spring: Price is consolidating in a tight symmetrical triangle. This represents a balance between buyers and sellers and a build-up of energy. A breakout is imminent. The Demand Zone: Our entry is not random. We are targeting a dip into the key demand zone between 144.50 - 144.80. This area is significant because it aligns with the 50-day moving average, a level that offers a more favorable risk/reward ratio. The Underlying Conflict: It's important to note the long-term bearish "Death Cross" on the daily chart (50 MA below 200 MA). Our thesis is that the immense fundamental pressure—now validated by our quantitative study—will be strong enough to overwhelm this lagging technical signal. The Plan & Setup 🎯 This is a conditional setup, and our analysis confirms the proposed levels are well-reasoned. We are waiting for the market to confirm our thesis before entering. The Setup: 📉 Long (Buy) USD/JPY. We are looking for price to dip into our demand zone and then break out of the triangle to the upside. Entry Zone: 👉 144.50 - 144.80. Watch for a 4H candle to show support in this area. Stop Loss: ⛔️ 144.00. A break below this level would signal that the immediate bullish structure has failed and invalidates the trade thesis. Take Profit: 🎯 149.50. This target is strategically set just below the major 150.00 psychological handle, a level where institutional orders are likely clustered. This setup provides a clear, logical plan to engage with the market's next big move. It's all signal, no noise. Trade smart, and manage your risk.
Long
by MaxellAguiran
USD/JPY H4 | Approaching a swing-high resistanceUSD/JPY is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 147.03 which is a swing-high resistance. Stop loss is at 147.75 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and a swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 145.85 which is an overlap support that aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
USDJPY 30Min Engaged (Bearish Reversal Entry Detected )➕ Objective: Precision Volume Execution Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout 🩸 Bearish Reversal From : 146.400 ➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority ➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected. The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size. Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation. 🔥 Tactical Note: We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention. The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
Short
by Path_Of_Hanzo
USDJPY – Can the Dollar Squeeze Last?In FX markets, the USDJPY currency pair has moved more than most this week. Initially trading higher, rocked by President Trump’s unveiling of the tariff letter sent to Japan on Tuesday in a social media show outlining new tariffs on Japanese imports of 25%, supported by rising US 10 year treasury yields (+10 bps on week), which often can influence USDJPY prices, and a general squeeze on weak short US dollar positions across all G7/10 currency pairs. This all helped USDJPY to move from Monday’s opening level around 144.40 up to a 3-week high of 147.18 on Wednesday. Then it was all change as USDJPY ran into a wave of fresh selling as traders took advantage of the squeeze to reopen short positions at higher levels, especially with various Bank of Japan board members discussing the potential for the Japanese central bank to raise interest rates again at some stage later in the year, and then President Trump unveiling more aggressive tariffs on countries such as Brazil (50% tariff), which renewed trader concerns that the US economy may be more negatively impacted by his trade policies. This sent USDJPY to a low of 145.75 this morning before recovering to slightly higher levels (146.25 0700 BST). Looking forward, trade deals and Trump tariff headlines/social media posts may continue to influence where USDJPY moves into the Friday close, as could the technical outlook ahead of a busy week for scheduled events started on Monday July 14th. Technical Update: USDJPY Back to Important Resistance? Since posting the 142.68 July 1st low, USDJPY has rallied strongly, seeing a more than 3% recovery in 6 sessions. This may mean some traders are looking for a more sustained price advance, but as the chart below shows, the latest price strength might only now be back to a resistance focus between the 147.09/147.64 levels. These levels are equal to a combination of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January 10th to April 22nd decline at 147.09, and the downtrend that connects the highs seen on April 3rd, May 12th and June 23rd, which currently stands at 147.64. So far at least, this resistance area has capped the latest price strength. Much will depend on future market sentiment and price trends, but it's possible closing breaks above the 147.09/64 resistance range may be required to suggest potential for a further phase of price strength towards 149.33, the higher 50%, even 151.57 the 61.8% retracements. What if Resistance at 147.09/64 Continues to Hold? Of course, the 147.09/64 resistance is currently holding price strength and could even prompt fresh weakness. As such, it could be suggested a more balanced sideways trading range is currently in place, with the latest price strength now back to the upper limit resistance at 147.09/64 . If this is the case, it is possible price weakness might now emerge, with closing breaks under support at 145.10, the Bollinger mid-average, potentially suggesting further declines are possible towards 143.20, which is the uptrend connecting the recent lows, which also possibly marks the lower limits of the current sideways price range. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
USDJPY Short Setup – Supply Zone Reaction After Structure Break After a clear break of structure (BOS) to the downside around the 145.92 level, USDJPY entered a retracement phase and is now retesting the supply zone created by the last bearish move. This area overlaps with the previous support turned resistance, as well as the dynamic resistance of the moving average, which strengthens the confluence. We also had a Change of Character (CHOCH) earlier in the structure, marking a shift in momentum from bullish to bearish. The current price action has formed a lower high beneath the supply zone, suggesting that sellers are likely to defend this area. I'm now watching for rejection signs from this 146.25–146.35 zone, which could confirm the bearish continuation. If price fails to break above this supply and shows weakness (e.g., bearish engulfing or long-wick rejections), I’ll look for entry opportunities to short. Target: The first short-term target is a move back to the BOS level at 145.92 A break below that could open the path to 144.09, the next significant support and previous demand zone Summary: This setup is based on classic smart money concepts: BOS, supply zone reaction, and a structural lower high. I’ll remain bearish unless the supply is broken cleanly with strong bullish momentum.
Short
by dine_anderson
1
USD/JPY: Still a Safe-Haven Tug of WarUSD/JPY had surged past 147 on the back of Trump’s tariff letter to Japan—but quickly pulled back as risk appetite stabilized and Treasury yields softened. Price action now sits around the low-146s. Technically, the 100-day SMA is providing key support just below 146.00. If bulls hold this level, we could see another push toward 147.20–148.00. On the downside, any surprise from upcoming Fed speakers or Japanese trade negotiations could send the pair testing the 144.00 zone again. Traders are watching Osaka closely, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to meet Japanese officials at the World Expo, which could shape sentiment fast.
by FDGCapital
1
DeGRAM | USDJPY fixed above the descending channel📊 Technical Analysis ● Dollar-yen has punched through the 16-month descending channel top and twice retested it as support (false-break tags), carving a rising trend line that now guides price away from 144.90. ● Inside the break zone a smaller pennant is forming; a 4 h close above 147.18 completes the pattern and activates the channel-height target at 150.80 near the November swing cap. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● US 2-yr yields pushed to a three-month high after hotter CPI core-services and Barkin’s “inflation progress has stalled”, while the BoJ July minutes flagged only “gradual” QT—widening the policy gap and reviving carry demand for yen shorts. ✨ Summary Long 145.2-146.2; pennant break >147.18 targets 150.80. Bias void on a 4 h close below 142.80. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
1
Bullish bounce off major support?USD/JPY has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the pullback resistance. Pivot: 145.92 1st Support: 145.23 1st Resistance: 147.14 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
$UJ (USDJPY) 1HPrice tapped into a 4H FVG (gray zone 146.800–146.300), a high-probability reversal zone when paired with liquidity sweep and break of structure. The bullish internal trendline was cleanly broken, signaling a short-term shift in momentum. Prior to the drop, price ran buy-side liquidity resting above previous highs (marked $$$), fulfilling liquidity objectives before reversing. The move into the 4H-FVG occurred in premium territory, ideal for institutional distribution. As long as price holds below 146.300 (top of the FVG), the bearish leg remains valid. Next liquidity target is around 145.240, where previous sell-side liquidity (lows marked $$$) is resting.
Short
by TopGBanks