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Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar

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USDJPY LONG & SHORT – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | D15 | W29 | Y25💼 USDJPY LONG & SHORT – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | D15 | W29 | Y25 📊 MARKET STRUCTURE SNAPSHOT USDJPY is currently reaching for a key higher time frame supply zone, looking for price action to show weakness at premium levels. Structure and momentum are now aligning for a short opportunity backed by multi-timeframe confluence. 🔍 Confluences to Watch 📝 ✅ Daily Order Block (OB) Looking for Strong reaction and early signs of distribution. ✅ 4H Order Block Break of internal structure (iBoS) confirms a short-term bearish transition. ✅ 1H Order Block 📈 Risk Management Protocols 🔑 Core principles: Max 1% risk per trade Only execute at pre-identified levels Use alerts, not emotion Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2 🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take, you’re paid for how well you manage risk. 🧠 Weekly FRGNT Insight "Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants." Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work. 🏁 Final Thoughts from FRGNT 📌 The structure is clear. The confluences are stacked. Let execution follow discipline, not emotion.
Short
by JCFRGNT
USD/JPY – Major Reversal Zone | Potential Top FormingUSD/JPY has entered a critical supply zone near 148.700 an area that has historically acted as strong resistance. The confluence of trendline rejection, overextended RSI, and multiple moving average rejections suggest a potential short-term top is forming. 🔍 Technical Breakdown: Macro Pattern: Price is forming a broadening wedge with repeated rejections from the upper resistance trendline (multi-touch). Supply Zone: The 148.400–148.700 range has acted as a liquidity grab zone historically — current reaction is showing early signs of exhaustion. Bearish Confluence: Price stalling below upper wedge resistance. RSI sitting near overbought territory (68.75) with bearish divergence brewing. 200 SMA overhead and flattening, acting as dynamic resistance. 🎯 Trade Outlook (Short Bias): Idea Triggered: If price fails to break and close above 148.700 with strong bullish volume, sellers are likely to step in. Target 1: 144.200 (mid-wedge support) Target 2: 139.000 (base of structure & ascending trendline) Invalidation: Daily close above 148.70–149.00 — would indicate potential continuation to new highs. 🔔 Watch For: Bearish engulfing or rising wedge breakdowns on lower timeframes (4H / 1H). RSI divergence confirmation. Volume drying out near resistance. 📌 Wright Way Insight: This is a high-probability fade setup at a well-defined resistance zone. Unless bulls break structure convincingly, momentum is likely to shift down — favoring strategic short entries. Let the chart speak. Don’t chase — trade the reversal, trade the Wright Way.
Short
by WrightWayInvestments
USD/JPY) LOGN TIME Analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update Technical analysis of USD/JPY on the daily timeframe, highlighting a long-term downtrend reversal with potential for significant upside. --- Analysis Summary Pair: USD/JPY Timeframe: Daily Current Price: 147.442 Bias: Bullish breakout from a descending wedge structure. --- Key Technical Insights 1. Descending Trendline Break: Price has broken above the long-term downtrend line, signaling a reversal. Breakout area is circled in yellow, confirming bullish intent. 2. Trendline & Structure Support: Multiple rejections from the ascending support trendline (marked by green arrows) confirm accumulation and higher lows. 3. 200 EMA as Dynamic Resistance/Support: Price is now above the 200 EMA (147.920) — a bullish signal, turning resistance into support. 4. RSI (14): RSI at 62.99, approaching overbought territory, but still has room to push further. --- Target Point Target: 158.951 Based on measured move from wedge breakout and historical resistance level. --- Trade Setup Idea Direction Entry Stop-Loss Target Buy 147.40–147.60 Below 145.80 158.95 Mr SMC Trading point --- Summary This chart signals a major bullish breakout on USD/JPY, with the break of a year-long downtrend structure, reclaiming the 200 EMA. If this breakout sustains, price could aim for 158.95 in the coming weeks. Please support boost 🚀 this analysis)
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
Heading into pullback resistance?The USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot, which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 148.44 1st Support: 143.24 1st Resistance: 151.23 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
USD/JPY: Battle at Resistance - Bull Run or Rejection?Alright Traders, Here's my breakdown of USD/JPY's next moves: The price has been repeatedly testing a strong resistance zone (those areas I've highlighted). It's really trying to push through, but this resistance is holding firm. Here's the game plan: If price successfully breaks above this resistance, we could see a strong bull run. My target for this move would be the 150 - 151 JPY zone (that yellow highlighted area). However, if price gets rejected from this resistance again, going short could be a good idea. We might see it drop to test the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level, or even further down to the 50% Fibonacci level. I've put this analysis together using Fibonacci retracements, moving averages, trend lines, and price action. Patience is key here. We need to wait for clear confirmation: either the resistance breaks, or price gets rejected and breaks the trendline support for a short entry. Trade smart!
by Sully-X
USDJPY SELLJapanese Yen adds to intraday losses; USD/JPY climbs to 148.80 amid broad-based USD strength The Japanese Yen selling remains unabated through the early European session on Thursday, which along with a goodish pickup in the US Dollar demand, lifts the USD/JPY pair to the 148.80 region in the last hour. Data released earlier today showed that Japan clocked a smaller-than-expected trade surplus in June. From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair showed some resilience below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Wednesday, and the subsequent move up favors bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators are holding comfortably in positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone, suggesting that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside. Hence, some follow-through strength back towards the 149.00 mark, en route to the overnight swing high near the 149.15-149.20 region, looks like a distinct possibility. The upward trajectory could extend further towards reclaiming the 150.00 psychological mark for the first time since late March. On the flip side, the 148.00 round figure now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the Asian session low, around the 147.70 region. The latter nears the 100-hour SMA, below which the USD/JPY pair could retest sub-147.00 levels. Some follow-through selling might shift the bias in favor of bearish trades and drag spot prices to the 146.60 intermediate support en route to the 146.20 area, the 146.00 mark, and the 100-day SMA support, currently pegged near the 145.80 region\ TP 1 147.931 TP 2 147.342 TP 3 146716 RESISTANCE 149.233
Short
by Mark804
USD/JPY – 4H Technical and Fundamental AnalysisUSD/JPY – 4H Technical and Fundamental Analysis USD/JPY continues to gain bullish momentum, driven by stronger U.S. inflation data and rising Treasury yields. These macroeconomic factors have tempered expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts, strengthening the dollar across the board—including against the yen. The Federal Reserve’s cautious tone, amid inflation tied to tariff pressures, further supports dollar strength. Meanwhile, Japan faces ongoing political uncertainty with an upcoming election, and US-Japan trade negotiations remain sluggish. This creates hesitation around any near-term monetary tightening from the Bank of Japan (BOJ), keeping the yen under pressure and enhancing the bullish outlook for USD/JPY. From a technical perspective, USD/JPY has broken above the key resistance level at 148.300, signaling renewed buying interest. After a brief consolidation—interpreted as an accumulation phase—price executed a liquidity hunt, triggering stop-losses placed above the resistance. This manipulation move set the stage for a potential continuation higher. Price is currently hovering near a minor key level. We are now watching for a clear candle close above the 148.300 zone to validate further upside momentum. Once confirmed, we aim to enter long on a breakout play. 📍 Buy Setup Entry: Buy Stop at 148.660 Stop Loss: 147.570 Take Profit: 150.870 📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage risk wisely and trade what you see—not what you feel.
Long
by RebornFXTrader
Trading Style, Timeframe Compatibility & Reasonable RiskTrading Style & Timeframe Compatibility When selecting a timeframe for your trading strategy, it's essential to understand how that timeframe interacts with your chosen approach. Not every timeframe works well with every style — and the reason is rooted in time itself. Each strategy — scalping , day trading , intra-week trading , or swing trading — is defined by how long you intend to hold a position: -Scalping involves entering and exiting within minutes. -Day trading means you're flat by the end of the day. -Intra-week trading covers trades held for several days, but typically wrapped within one or two weeks. -Swing trading extends beyond that timeframe, sometimes lasting weeks to months. So before anything else, your timeframe should reflect your intended holding period . If that alignment is off, the edge you're trying to build may be fundamentally flawed. Timeframes and Institutional Risk Here’s where it gets interesting: the lower the timeframe , the closer you are to current price action — and that proximity increases your exposure to short-term liquidity grabs by institutional players. Institutions don’t just push price around randomly. They insert large capital into the market with calculated precision, typically aiming to sweep liquidity (aka stop hunts) before executing their real positions. But there's a limit: institutions can only inject so much money at a time before it becomes inefficient or risky for them. This is where tools like the Institutional Sweep Zone indicator come into play. It estimates how far price can move given a range of institutional capital (e.g., $500M–$1B). It calculates the potential sweep distance based on the pair you're trading, and visually maps the zone where stops are most vulnerable. For example: A sweep zone that stretches 20 pips might represent the range where $1B could realistically push price. If your stop is inside that range, you're at higher risk of getting swept. If your stop is well outside of it (often found on higher timeframes), the risk decreases substantially — because it would require too much capital to reach your level. So, higher timeframe strategy stop-losses tend to sit outside these high-risk zones naturally , making them less likely to be manipulated by institutional moves. That’s why: -Lower timeframe = higher risk of being swept -Higher timeframe = lower risk, higher survivability -More Trades ≠ More Profit One of the biggest traps new traders fall into is believing that more trades will generate more returns. In reality, more trades just amplify risk — especially when you’re relying on low timeframes that are constantly under pressure from liquidity sweeps and volatility. Patience is a skill. Eager traders often gravitate to the 1-minute, 5-minute or 15-minute charts, thinking they’re catching more opportunities. In truth, they’re exposing themselves to more noise, more traps, and more stop-outs. Final Thoughts If you’re serious about aligning your strategy with institutional mechanics, be intentional about your timeframe. Think in terms of: -Risk exposure to sweeps -Capital required to invalidate your position -Holding power relative to time classification And remember: fewer, higher-quality trades on appropriate timeframes often outperform dozens of rushed trades on lower ones. For more concepts like this — along with access to unique tools like the Institutional Sweep Zone — check out my TradingView page: The_Forex_Steward . If this post helped clarify your thinking, give it a boost to let others benefit too.
Education
by The_Forex_Steward
3
USDJPY Wave Analysis – 15 July 2025 - USDJPY broke the resistance area - Likely to rise to resistance level 151.30 USDJPY currency pair recently broke the resistance area located at the intersection of the resistance level 148.00 and the two resistance trendlines from January and March. The breakout of this resistance area should strengthen the bullish pressure on his currency pair. Given the continuation of the widespread yen sales seen recently across FX markets, USDJPY currency pair index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 151.30 (monthly high from March).
Long
by FxProGlobal
Japan's core CPI cools as expectedThe Japanese yen is showing little movement on Friday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 148.69, up 0.06% on the day. On the data calendar, Japan's inflation rate eased in June. It's a light day in the US, highlighted by UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. Inflation in Japan fell in June as expected and the yen is showing little movement today. Headline CPI dropped to 3.3% y/y from 3.5% in May, matching the consensus. This was the lowest level since Nov. 2024, as prices for electricity and gasoline rose more slowly in June. FoodThe inflation numbers come just before an election for Japan's Upper House of Parliament on Sunday. The ruling coalition is in danger of losing its majority, and if that happens, it will likely impact yields and the yen next week. The Bank of Japan meets next on July 31 and is expected to continue its wait-and-see approach and hold interest rates. The BoJ hiked rates in January but hopes for a series of rate increases were dashed after US President Trump promised and delivered tariffs on many US trading partners, including Japan. Trade talks between the US and Japan have bogged down and Trump has threatened to hit Japan with 25% tariffs if an agreement isn't reached by Aug. 1. In this uncertain environment, the BoJ isn't likely to raise interest rates. prices were up 7.2%, the most since March, as rice prices soared 100%. Monthly, CPI eased to 0.1%, down from 0.3% in May. Core inflation, which excludes fresh food but includes energy, fell to 3.3% from 3.7%, in line with the consensus and the lowest pace since March. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 148.66. Above, there is resistance at 1.4882 148.44 and 148.28 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USDJPY Expanding Diagonal – Final Wave 5 at 149.71?FX:USDJPY FX_IDC:USDJPY USD/JPY – 4H Chart – Elliott Wave Analysis 📅 July 16, 2025 | By: Trwin 🧠 Pattern Highlighted: Expanding Ending Diagonal (Wave C) The current move from wave B to C appears to form a classic expanding ending diagonal, suggesting trend exhaustion near the key resistance zone of 149.71. 🔎 Key Features: 🔹 All 5 waves are structured as zigzags – a textbook ending diagonal. 🔹 Wave 3 > Wave 1, and Wave 5 > Wave 3 → confirms expanding structure 🔹 Wave 2 & 4 retraced deeper than typical impulses (common in diagonals) 🔹 Wedges are diverging, forming an expanding wedge. 🔹 Price is nearing a throw-over, hinting at final exhaustion. 💬 What do you think? Will USDJPY reverse hard from this expanding wedge or break higher into a blow-off top? ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading carries risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Short
by Trwin
USD/JPY 4-Hour Chart Analysis4-hour chart displays the price movement of the U.S. Dollar against the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) from June to August 2025. The chart shows a significant upward trend in July, followed by a correction. Key levels are highlighted, including support at 147.031 and resistance at 150.130, with the current price at 148.809. The chart suggests a potential bullish continuation, as indicated by the upward arrow and green box, targeting higher levels above 150.000.
Long
by Alee_Gold_Trader