USD/JPY 4-Hour Chart Analysis4-hour chart displays the price movement of the U.S. Dollar against the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) from June to August 2025. The chart shows a significant upward trend in July, followed by a correction. Key levels are highlighted, including support at 147.031 and resistance at 150.130, with the current price at 148.809. The chart suggests a potential bullish continuation, as indicated by the upward arrow and green box, targeting higher levels above 150.000.
JPYUSD trade ideas
usdjpy sell setupPrevious day high swept by day high looking to buy at discount areas near yesterday low so sell setup with stops at yesterday high which has already been swept .In lower tf as seen we are filling imbalance to continue higher while dxy also retrace previous resistance as support we would look to short to the area
USDJPY 1H - market buy with a confirmed structureThe price has bounced from a key support zone and is showing early signs of recovery. A clear base has formed, and the MA50 is starting to turn upward, indicating a shift in short-term momentum. While the MA200 remains above the price, the overall structure suggests a potential continuation of the bullish move.
Trade #1 — entry at market, target: 145.939, stop below recent local low.
Trade #2 — entry after breakout and retest of 145.939, target: 148.000, stop below the retest zone.
Volume has stabilized, and the reaction from support is clear. As long as price holds above the last swing low, buying remains the preferred strategy.
USD/JPY:Bulls Eye Break Above 149.50, Yen Remains Under Pressure
The Japanese Yen slipped to its lowest level since April during the Asian session on Wednesday, weighed down by fading expectations of a near term rate hike from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The market reaction reflects growing concerns over the potential economic fallout from recently imposed higher US tariffs, which has dampened hawkish bets on the BoJ and contributed to the Yen's underperformance in July.
On the flip side, the US Dollar remains well-supported, with the USD Index (DXY) surging to its highest level since June 23 following Tuesday's hotter-than-expected US CPI data. The inflation print reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts, thereby underpinning demand for the Greenback.
Technical Outlook
From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY’s breakout above the June high at 148.50 and a subsequent move beyond the May swing high around 148.65 has triggered fresh bullish momentum. This bullish bias remains intact as long as the pair holds above the 148.50 support zone.
Immediate Support: 148.50, followed by 148.00
Key Demand Zone: 147.55 horizontal level that could act as a pivot. Break below here might open the door to a deeper pullback toward the 146.30 and 146.25 area.
Immediate Resistance: 149.00, followed by 149.35 and 149.40 zone.
Key Hurdle: 150.00 is a psychologically significant level where bulls may encounter strong resistance. A sustained move and daily close above 149.50 could act as a catalyst for further gains, possibly setting the stage for a test of 150.00 in the near term.
The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.
USDJPY – Tactical Short in Weekly Supply or Bullish Breakout?COT & MACRO FLOW (Commitment of Traders)
USD INDEX
Non-commercials still biased short: Longs 16,208 vs Shorts 20,194 (slightly improved, but still negative).
Commercials remain net long, but the open interest is declining → no strong conviction from smart money.
JPY
Non-commercials added significantly to their short exposure (+6,751), while cutting longs (-4,432).
Commercials also cut long exposure heavily (-20,405).
The structure shows institutional bias is clearly bearish on JPY.
Conclusion: JPY weakness confirmed by both commercial and non-commercial flows. USD slightly weaker, but JPY is weaker → supports USDJPY bullish bias.
SEASONALITY (JULY)
USD/JPY tends to be weak in July across most historical averages (5y, 10y, 15y, 20y).
July is historically bearish for USDJPY, especially in the second half of the month.
This seasonality contrasts with COT flows → mixed bias.
RETAIL SENTIMENT
60% of retail traders are SHORT → supports contrarian long view.
Retail volume shows imbalance in positioning, another contrarian bullish signal.
📈 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (DAILY CHART)
Price is testing a key weekly FVG zone between 148.4 and 149.2.
RSI has re-entered the overbought region, suggesting potential exhaustion.
Price bounced from the monthly bullish order block (143.5–144.0).
A clear move above 149.50 could invalidate short setups.
🧩 TRADE IDEA (SETUP)
Watch for price to retest 148.4–149.50 zone and react.
RSI divergence + seasonality could offer a short opportunity with confirmation (e.g. engulfing on Daily/H4).
If price breaks above 149.5 with volume → look for continuation to 152.00.
✅ FINAL BIAS
Macro and institutional flows remain in favor of USDJPY longs, but:
Seasonality turns bearish in the second half of July
Price is reaching strong resistance
Retail sentiment supports the long thesis
→ Tactical Short from 149-150 only with confirmation. Otherwise, long continuation above 150.
USDJPY – 4H Rally-Base-Drop in Daily SupplyUSDJPY – 4H Rally-Base-Drop in Daily Supply
Price has rallied into a high-quality 4H Rally-Base-Drop supply zone, which is nested cleanly inside a Daily supply zone—offering strong confluence for a short setup.
I'm anticipating a reaction from this institutional imbalance area, with price rejecting from the 148.260–148.735 zone. The target is down toward 145.228, creating a potential 1:3+ RRR.
USDJPY 30Min Engaged ( Buy & Sell Entrys Detected ) ➕ Objective: Precision Volume Execution
Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare
Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout
🩸 Bullish From now Price : 147.350
🩸 Bearish Reversal Price : 147.850
➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority
➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected.
The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size.
Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation.
🔥 Tactical Note:
We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention.
The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
USDJPY H1 CONFIRM ANALYSISThe Japanese Yen selling remains unabated through the early European session on Thursday, which along with a goodish pickup in the US Dollar demand, lifts the USD/JPY pair to the 148.80 region in the last hour. Data released earlier today showed that Japan clocked a smaller-than-expected trade surplus in June.
USDJPY Short: Completion of Triple Combination Sub-wave 2Hello everyone! Over in this video, I analyzed the USDJPY and go through how I counted the waves and go through the lower levels sub-wave counts. I believe that USDJPY has completed a triple combination with the Z wave as a 5-wave structure. I talk about how this final wave might not be ideal and propose how the waves might be viewed in a different perspective. However, I believe also that the price is now good enough to short and propose a scaling-in method to short USDJPY.
Eventually, I think that USDJPY will go down to the lower trendline and break it. However, we will have to revisit the chart again when it does to see how the waves unfolded and then decide how to trade it.
Finally, as always, keep your risk tight and Good luck!
USDJPY H1 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H1 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 148.61, a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fib retracement.
Our take profit is set at 147.57, an overlap support.
The stop loss is set at 149.18 a swing high resistance.
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