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FGLD1! trade ideas

Compression Structure at Key Inflection PointDescription: GC is currently trading within a high-probability inflection zone defined by confluence between structural demand, a well-defined fair value gap, and multi-timeframe descending trend line resistance. The asset is compressing between key volume thresholds and macro trend lines, presenting a binary scenario with favourable asymmetry in either direction. Context & Market Structure Chart Basis: 4H Instruments Used: GC1! (COMEX Gold August 2025 Futures) 20 & 50 EMA for short-term dynamic structure Manual markups: S/D zones, FVGs, trendlines Session Data: NY session highs/lows (previous day) Key Technical Elements Descending Trendline (Macro): Initiated from swing high on July 5th, currently acting as dynamic resistance. Confirmed via 3+ touchpoints. Linear regression indicates slope remains intact. Rising Trend line (Structural Support): Originates from June 26th low supporting current bullish attempts. Intersection with demand and session low adds weight to this level. Demand Zone (3280–3286): Structurally valid with absorption wicks and bullish reaction. Volume clusters indicate localized buyer interest. Rejecting this zone twice already. Fair Value Gap (FVG) (3297–3304): Formed post-impulsive leg. Statistically, ~78% of FVGs in gold futures are filled within 2 sessions when no continuation candle follows which is the current setup. Supply Zone (3314–3318): Defined from previous consolidation pre-selloff. Aligns with ORB high + unfilled inefficiency, creating layered resistance. Previous NY Session Levels: High: 3310.0 Low: 3277.5 Price trading midpoint of this range increased probability of expansion after compression. Scenario Mapping Bullish Scenario: Trigger: Break and 15-min hold above 3305 Validation: Acceptance into FVG zone + reclaim of previous session high Target: 3316–3320 (supply zone + inefficiency fill) Extended Target: 3334 swing high (mean reversion area) Bearish Scenario: Trigger: Breakdown below 3277.5 session low Validation: Failure to reclaim demand zone; increased volume on breakdown Target: 3250 (local HVN & previous accumulation node) Extended Target: 3227 structural low (trend continuation) Bias Model: Volatility Compression: 3-day ATR declining; tightening range. Mean Reversion Probability (MPR): 58% if price returns to mid-FVG before rejection. Expansion Probability (EXP): 64% post-session high/low sweep. Trend Alignment Bias: Bearish until > 3305 is sustained. Below 3280, short bias accelerates. Summary: GC1! is currently in compression between confirmed demand and a clean FVG/supply stack, with trend lines boxing in price from both directions. A breakout from this tri-zone structure is statistically likely in the next session. I remain neutral-biased with actionable directional triggers above 3305 or below 3277. Not a market to guess, wait for confirmation. High-quality setups require patience at the edge of structure. Staakd Rating: ★★★★☆ (4.6/5)
COMEX:GC1!
by stakkd
Gold LongsSolid daily structure for Gold heading into the holiday weekend. Bullish going into next week if price closes bullish on the week. Daily discount SSL swept and closed back inside the range on Monday. Daily OB confirmed on Tuesday. FVG created and inversion fvg confirmed on Wednesday. Anticipating Thursday to possibly pull back and offer a prime continuation to the upside. I'd like to see the inversion be respected. Price can wick into the BISI but I don't want to see price close below the BISI. That's a red flag. Targeting Equal Highs.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by CEOTraders
Mixed market for GOLDHard to frame an idea for gold because the dxy looks strong and gold looks strong as well, indicating to me a mixed market. Sitting on the sidelines for gold is probably the better bet right now because we just had a sweep of buyside liquidty and tapped back into a daily fvg. Notice the candles, and how they didnt close above the swing high. So because gold looks bullish and dxy looks bullish, im not interested in gold for tuesday trading. But if i had to pikc, we continue up for gold and attacck that buyside/ eqaul highs
COMEX_MINI:MGCQ2025
by diegoulises281
Gold Between Trade Optimism and Economic Concerns Gold is declining for the second consecutive session, although it remains above the critical psychological level of $3,300 per ounce in early spot trading this morning. Losses in the precious metal come amid renewed optimism over potential trade agreements that could de-escalate the global trade war, alongside upbeat sentiment regarding the strength of the U.S. economy following last Friday’s labor market data. The 90-day suspension of tariffs imposed by the administration of President Donald Trump is set to expire on Wednesday, but it could be extended at least until August 1, according to statements from both the president and Treasury Secretary Scott Besant. Both the United States and its allies and trade rivals appear eager to reach an agreement. China and the U.S. are moving to implement the framework of a previously reached trade deal by reviewing the export restrictions imposed on one another. Meanwhile, European officials stated last week that a draft agreement with the U.S. may be near, aiming to maintain base tariff rates at just 10%, according to The Wall Street Journal . Markets appear largely unbothered by trade developments, given the flexible and seemingly open-ended deadlines and the lack of major surprises, according to analysts cited by Reuters . This easing of concern may lead gold to gradually lose the risk premium it had gained from fears of a global trade war. Still, those concerns could return swiftly if negotiations fail and heavy tariffs are reinstated. The Washington Post reported that a potential U.S.-Vietnam trade deal may anger China and, in turn, reduce the likelihood of a broader deal between Beijing and Washington. Additionally, the prolonged uncertainty itself may start to weigh on the U.S. economy, which could, over time, rekindle demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. The Editorial Board of The Journal noted cracks in the U.S. labor market that lie beneath the better-than-expected headline figures released Friday. The report revealed weak hiring in key private sectors, a decline in manufacturing employment, and a drop in labor force participation to its lowest level since 2022. The Editorial Board called for dissipation of uncertainty around trade policy to encourage private sector hiring, as companies remain hesitant amid the current indecision in the White House. Another report from The Journal also warned that prolonged uncertainty could weaken the U.S. dollar, delay corporate investment and spending, and dampen business confidence. On a related front, The Journal’s chief economics commentator Greg Ip criticized what he called “fiscal dominance” under Trump, where the Federal Reserve may be pressured to lower interest rates to ease the burden of the rising deficit caused by tax cuts. He warned this could undermine economic strength and increase inflation in the long run. In my view, the early signs of a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position could become one of the key long-term drivers of sustained gold gains—even if markets remain complacent for now and equities continue climbing to record highs. This would not reflect an economic cycle, but rather a deeper shift in market fundamentals characterized by eroding confidence in the U.S. economy and its currency.
COMEX:GC1!
by SamerHa
$GC / $MGC /Gold - Elliot Wave Analysis - Weekend Update - 7/6Hello fellow gamblers, As we prepare for a new trading week, I revisited my EW count and was able to come up with 2 scenarios to present to you today. - For our bullish scenario, I am looking for a break above 3418 and my next target will be at the 3574 - 3525 range. - For our bearish scenario, I am looking for a break below 3283 and my next target will be at the 3086 - 2846 range. - Price went through a consolidation as we closed last week's candle, and we are now at POC. - Levels to Watch: 3418, 3363, 3283
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by Caramel0
1
Gold Futures (GC1!) – Accumulation Brewing? Major Move IncomingGold has been stuck in a tight range since April, and to me, this looks like a textbook accumulation zone forming on the daily chart. Price is coiling within a defined box, showing signs of both strength and weakness — classic behavior before a manipulative move (fake breakout) followed by distribution (true direction). This is where many traders get trapped, chasing the first breakout — only to get caught before the actual move begins. I’m not committed to a direction yet, but here’s my roadmap: 🧠 First breakout = likely trap (manipulation) 🧭 Wait for confirmation of rejection/failure, then prepare for the real move out of the range This kind of price behavior often precedes explosive volatility, so I’m watching closely for: False breakouts above or below the box Volume spikes or traps Shift in market structure on lower timeframes 📍 No trade for now, but I’ll be reacting — not predicting. What’s your bias? Do you think the breakout will hold or fake out?
COMEX:GC1!
by rassen21
3