Oscar will go down to 10$ in next 3-4 months timeRecent Stock Pressure
Weak Q2 guidance from Centene weighed on sentiment, dragging OSCR down ~14%
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Wells Fargo downgraded it to underweight, citing rising medical costs and pricing pressures in 2025
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📊 Key Drivers for OSCR
1. 🩺 Healthcare Reform & the ACA / Medicare Advantage
Trump’s tariffs are targeted at pharma, not insurers. But if drug prices rise, costs trickle down to insurers like Oscar.
Conversely, Trump victories are seen as favorable for Medicare Advantage, potentially benefitting OSCR under a pro-Medicare Advantage regime
2. 💡 Growth & Momentum
Oscar recently posted strong Q1 results — 42% revenue growth and 45% share rally
The stock has explored the “meme stock”-like territory with ~52% weekly jump in June
🔍 What Trump Tariffs Mean for OSCR
No direct impact, as tariffs aim at imported drugs, not insurance firms.
Indirectly:
Higher drug costs → could pressure OSCR’s medical loss ratios
Meanwhile, political moves favoring Medicare Advantage and ACA stabilization could help OSCR
🌟 Outlook
Factor Impact on OSCR
⚠️ Downside risks Rising healthcare costs; regulatory uncertainty
✅ Upside catalysts Medicare Advantage tailwinds; continued execution & expansion
📉 Tech-driven momentum AI investments, ICHRA adoption, and growing RS rating (>90)
🔄 Volatility Meme-like spikes add risk—but also opportunity
🧭 Final Take
Trump tariffs on pharma won’t directly hit OSCR, but rising drug costs could hurt insurers if passed along to consumers.
Policy outlook (Medicare Advantage, ACA support) matters—bullish under Trump, bearish under heavier regulation.
OSCR is fundamentally a growth-tech-insurance stock, not a pharma or tariff play.
