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UnitedHealth Group IncorporatedUnitedHealth Group IncorporatedUnitedHealth Group Incorporated

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated

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UNH trade ideas

My UNH Thesis: Betting on a Healthcare Giant's Come BackThe healthcare sector has been in decline, which creates interesting opportunities. I recently talked about a few pharma plays - Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, and Pfizer. Here's why I'm investing in NYSE:UNH : UnitedHealth Group (UNH) has tanked ~50% in the past year, but the July 29 (VERY SOON) earnings could flip the script. As a historically dominant player, UNH is now undervalued amid sector weakness, offering massive upside if regulatory fears ease. Here's my full bull case. 👇 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Why the Sell-Off? A Perfect Storm of Bad News UNH crushed the market for 15 straight years (2009-2023) with positive returns, predictable EPS growth, and 134% gains over the last decade. But 2024 brought chaos: Feb: Massive cyber attack caused a one-time EPS hit (non-recurring). Ongoing: DOJ antitrust probe, criminal fraud investigation, rising Medicare costs, and Optum losses. April: Disastrous Q1 earnings miss + lowered guidance. Leadership drama: CEO death. This erased gains (down 7% over 5 years), amplified by healthcare sector outflows—the biggest since 2020. But is this overblown? Signs point to yes. The markets almost always overreact to bad news. Bullish Signals: Insiders Betting Big The tide is turning: Insider Buying Boom: $32M+ in 2024 (vs. $6.6M in 2019), including new CEO/CFO—highest in 15 years. Congress Buying: Q2 2024 saw net purchases for the first time in 5 years (vs. historical selling). DOJ Shift: Probe refocusing on pharmacy benefits (PBM) unit, dropping acquisition/monopoly scrutiny—implies no major findings. Great news! Sector Tailwinds: Healthcare is one of 3 S&P sectors below historical valuations. Super investors (usually tech-obsessed) are piling in, despite the sector's -10% YTD vs. S&P's +13%. Plus, UNH's dividend yield is at a record ~3% (vs. 1.5% avg), with 16%+ historical growth and 100%+ free cash flow conversion. Rare combo of yield + growth! Valuation: Screaming Buy? UNH trades at PE ~11.9 (vs. 10-year avg 23)—a steal. Analysts project 16.7% EPS CAGR through 2029. Conservative Scenario: 16.5% EPS growth + PE to 16.5 = $780/share by 2030 (173% total return, 18% CAGR ex-dividends). Optimistic: PE back to 23 = $1,084/share (280% return). Models confirm: DCF (8% FCF growth): ~$484/share (70% upside). DDM (7% div growth): ~$607/share (112% upside). Blended Fair Value: ~$545/share (75-90% upside from ~$300). Buy below $436 for 20% safety margin. Still, there is fear of DOJ uncertainty—investors hate unpredictability and that's why the stock is so low. Key Catalyst: July 29 Earnings This could be UNH's "most important report ever." Watch for: Regulatory/legal updates (DOJ progress). Full-year guidance revisions. Metrics like medical loss ratio and PBM performance. Positive news = potential rocket 🚀. Expectations are low (20 bearish EPS revisions vs. 0 bullish), so a beat could spark volatility... upward. Risks: Not Without Bumps Regulatory escalation (e.g., PBM issues) could tank it further. Short-term headwinds: Medicare costs, sector selling. Mitigants: DOJ de-risking, strong FCF buffer, insider confidence. Enter cautiously—size positions small. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS I also did a little technical analysis: UNH price is at a resistance level My EVaR indicator tells me we are in a low-risk area RSI says the stock is oversold I added the different price targets for better visualization THE PLAN My plan: Later today, I will allocate 1% to 1.5% of my portfolio to the stock. If it drops, I will continue to DCA. The stock is already really beaten down, and I think a company this large cannot drop much more. Quick note: I'm just sharing my journey - not financial advice! 😊
NYSE:UNHLong
by HenriqueCentieiro
17
UNH Weekly Options Play – Bearish Setup (7/21/2025) 📉 UNH Weekly Options Play – Bearish Setup (7/21/2025) RSI Breakdown 📊 | Institutional Hedging? 🤔 | Bearish Trend Confirmed 🚨 ⸻ 🧠 Multi-Model Analysis Summary 🔻 RSI Trends: Falling daily + weekly RSI → strong bearish momentum 📉 Volume: Consistently negative across models → confirms selling pressure 🧠 Options Flow: High Call/Put ratio (3.01) — debated as bullish hedge vs short cover 📌 Outcome: Consensus bearish, with minor short-term upside risk due to calls ⸻ 🎯 TRADE IDEA – UNH $280 PUT 💥 Direction: Bearish 🧾 Strike: $280 Put 📆 Expiry: July 25, 2025 💵 Entry: $2.35 🛑 Stop: $1.18 (≈50% loss cap) 🎯 Target: $4.70 (≈100% gain) 📈 Confidence: 70% ⏰ Entry Time: Market Open ⸻ 📎 Why Take This Trade? ✅ RSI + volume = bearish momentum confirmed ✅ Volatility is favorable for option premium expansion ❗️ Watch for gamma near expiry & unexpected institutional sentiment shifts ⸻ 📊 TRADE_DETAILS JSON { "instrument": "UNH", "direction": "put", "strike": 280.0, "expiry": "2025-07-25", "confidence": 0.70, "profit_target": 4.70, "stop_loss": 1.18, "size": 1, "entry_price": 2.35, "entry_timing": "open", "signal_publish_time": "2025-07-21 12:49:28 EDT" } ⸻ 🔥 #UNH #OptionsTrade #BearishSetup #WeeklyTrade #PutOptions #InstitutionalFlow #MarketMomentum #VolatilityPlay
NYSE:UNHShort
by quantsignals
1
Is it right time and choice to buy UNH Stock - {15/07/2025}Educational Analysis says that UNH Stock (USA) may give trend Trading opportunities from this range, according to my technical analysis. Broker - NA So, my analysis is based on a top-down approach from weekly to trend range to internal trend range. So my analysis comprises of two structures: 1) Break of structure on weekly range and 2) Trading Range to fill the remaining fair value gap Let's see what this Stock brings to the table for us in the future. Please check the comment section to see how this turned out. DISCLAIMER:- This is not an entry signal. THIS IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. I HAVE NO CONCERNS WITH YOUR PROFIT OR LOSS, Happy Trading.
NYSE:UNHLong
by VishalBudhrani
UNH bear flag and gapsUNH has been top of my radar for a bullish reversal. With 2 major gaps to fill after the epic collapse in share price this ticker has a lot of potential. Currently sitting in what appears to be a bear flag, it is holding above the monthly 200EMA (overlayed on this 4H chart). However price recently rejected off the daily 21ema (overlayed on this 4H chart) and if the bear flag is any indicator price may head lower for another liquidity sweep before the inevitable bullish reversal. A side note: insiders have been buying $millions since the share price collapsed which is always a good indicator of what's to come.
NYSE:UNHLong
by BorrowedClothes
$UNH – Macro Outlook UpdateBack in April, I suggested the long-term uptrend from 2008 may have topped, shifting into a multi-year correction toward the 260–150 support zone. The decline unfolded faster than expected, with news-driven selling hitting the upper edge of that macro support — followed by a strong rebound. Apr mind www.tradingview.com Currently, price is consolidating constructively. As long as 282 holds, I favor a continuation higher into the 360–430 resistance zone where we’ll reassess the broader structure. Daily chart Macro chart Thank you for your attention and I wish you successful trading and investing decisions!
NYSE:UNHLong
by artemfedorov
5
Bears are still in controlHello I am the Cafe Trader. Today we are going to be taking a look at UNH. No doubt this has to have come across your feed or in the news recently. Why is every so Bullish? People are so bullish, that it spooks me... Everyone is pumping this emphatically, I feel like they are getting paid to pump it. This is a bold statement, but It's a gut feeling. Tin Foil If people get paid to pump, The huge seller isn't done selling, and needs you to keep buying to sell into you. Yes this should make you hesitant and weary. Does this mean you shouldn't buy? Not necessarily. Here are two scenarios to help you squeeze some juice out of this rock. Bears are still in Control A fresh new aggressive seller stepped in at $292.44. This is going to put some pressure on the high demand zone. May 25th, we sunk deep into the zone before recovering. This was an extremely hot reaction with passive buyers sitting at 271.30 11th of June aggressive buyers stepped in, but got crushed. 27th of June aggressive buyers stepped in, but as soon as they hit the real liquidity from the big seller (Tues jul 1st), you saw a huge follow through and more aggressive selling. This tells us that bears are still in control and I foresee two scenarios. Green Scenario Test off the liquidity at $271. Get a hot reaction from the buyers, putting tons of pressure on the new seller, ripping their faces and blasting off into never land. Long Entry 271 Stop 260 Partial TP 323 Final TP 425 Red Scenario We test the New aggresor before the high demand Liquidity, get sold into heavily, and put so much pressure on buyers it blows pass the high demand and gets to the most probable bounce location at top of Extreme Demand $207. Short Entry 292 Stop 302.50 Partial TP 271 Final TP 207 Bonus Scenario That 207 Area should attract massive buyers, even with the seller as heavy as he is. I think if there is going to be any big bounce strait off the cuff, this will be the spot. Entry 207 Stop 185 TP 425 (play the long long game here) Long Term If you did your DD and you want a good price. The following will be measured by your personal sentiment. Aggressive = 271 Fair price = 240 "Steal" = 191 - 207 That's all for UNH, Remember to follow/Boost. Stay tuned for more market analysis. Happy Trading! @thecafetrader
NYSE:UNH
by thecafetrader
UNH How Far Down Are We Going $32 ? Based on the current class action lawsuit sentiment is negative and if it continues we can see levels of 258 being hit again. However if we break that level down then 163-150 level can possibly get hit followed by the 32-49 dollar range. However despite all the negative news which does affect the market, if for whatever reasons we can break the high of 326 be prepared for a run up to 535 low probability but it is possible. Trade Smarter Live Better Kris/ Mindbloome Exchange
NYSE:UNHShort
by Mindbloome-Trading
8
Relief Rally likely, but if the gossip is true ...Let's perform a technical analysis of UnitedHealth Group (UNH) stock, incorporating the SMAs, MACD (8,13), and the provided support and target levels. As of Friday, June 27, 2025, at 10:04:56 PM PDT, here's a breakdown of UNH: **Current Price & Performance:** * **Last Price:** $308.62 (as of 4:00 PM ET on June 27, 2025) * **Today's Change:** Up $6.00 (+1.99%) * **Previous Close:** $302.62 * **Today's Range:** $302.20 - $310.45 * **52-Week Range:** $248.88 - $630.73 (Note the significant drop from its 52-week high, indicating a strong downtrend over the past year). --- ### **Simple Moving Averages (SMAs): 200, 100, 86, 50, 21** Moving Averages are lagging indicators, and their relationship to price and each other helps identify trends. For UNH, the picture is quite different from GOOGL. * **200-Day SMA:** This is a long-term trend indicator. * Current: **Around $494.42 - $495.79** * **Interpretation:** The current price of $308.62 is **significantly BELOW** the 200-day SMA. This clearly signals a **long-term bearish trend**. This is a major red flag for long-term investors. * **100-Day SMA:** A medium-to-long-term trend indicator. * Current: **Around $433.21 - $429.49** * **Interpretation:** The price is **significantly BELOW** the 100-day SMA, reinforcing the bearish sentiment on a medium-term basis. * **86-Day SMA:** A custom or less common moving average. * *Exact 86-day SMA not commonly reported, but given the trend of the 50, 100, and 200-day SMAs, it will also be well above the current price.* * **Interpretation:** The price would be well below its 86-day SMA, confirming the bearish pressure across this timeframe as well. * **50-Day SMA:** A medium-term trend indicator. * Current: **Around $359.86 - $345.03** * **Interpretation:** The price is **well BELOW** the 50-day SMA. This is a **bearish signal**, indicating that the medium-term trend is down. The price needs to reclaim and hold above this SMA to suggest a shift in sentiment. * **21-Day SMA:** A short-term trend indicator. * Current: **Around $302.51 - $305.13** (This is the most relevant in the immediate term.) * **Interpretation:** The current price ($308.62) is **just above or fluctuating around its 21-day SMA**. Some sources indicate the price is above it (suggesting a short-term "Buy" signal for this specific MA), while others still show a "Sell" for longer periods. This suggests that while there might be a very recent, tentative bounce or consolidation, the short-term trend is still very weak or fighting for direction. **Overall SMA Assessment:** In stark contrast to Google, UnitedHealth's SMAs paint a **predominantly bearish picture**. The longer-term SMAs (200, 100, 50) are all significantly above the current price, indicating a strong downtrend. The shorter-term 21-day SMA shows the price is trying to consolidate or bounce slightly, but it's still operating within a broader bearish context. The "stack" of SMAs is inverted (shorter-term below longer-term, with the price at the very bottom), confirming the bearish outlook. --- ### **MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) (8,13)** * **MACD Line:** (8-period EMA of Close - 13-period EMA of Close) * **Signal Line:** 9-period EMA of the MACD Line * **MACD Histogram:** MACD Line - Signal Line **Current UNH MACD (8,13) State:** Some sources indicate that the standard MACD (12,26,9) for UNH is currently **negative (e.g., -12.31)**, suggesting a "Sell" signal. However, some recent updates also indicate a "buy signal from the 3-month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)" and that the MACD value "suggests UNH has a positive trend, although the MACD value is declining." This presents a mixed signal for the standard MACD, suggesting a potential bullish divergence or a very recent, weak bullish crossover from extreme oversold conditions. Given the price is just above its 21-day SMA after a significant drop, the custom MACD (8,13) would be more sensitive and might show: * **Recent Crossover:** It's plausible that the MACD (8,13) line has recently performed a **bullish crossover above its signal line**, or is about to, from deeply negative territory. This would reflect the very short-term bounce observed. * **Histogram:** The histogram might be turning less negative or even positive, indicating a potential, albeit weak, shift in immediate momentum. **Interpretation:** While a bullish MACD crossover would be a positive sign, for a stock in a strong downtrend like UNH, such a signal would be viewed with caution. It might indicate a short-term relief rally within a larger downtrend rather than a sustained reversal, especially if the MACD values remain relatively low compared to previous bullish phases. --- ### **Strong Support at $147** * **Analysis:** If we consider the 52-week range of $248.88 - $630.73, the $147 support level is significantly below the current 52-week low. This suggests that $147 might be a *very long-term* or *historical* support level (e.g., from pre-2023 prices) that is not immediately relevant to the current trading range. * **Current Relevance:** Currently trading at $308.62, UNH has more immediate support levels to consider, for example, its 52-week low of $248.88, or the various pivot point supports provided by technical aggregators around **$300.37, $298.12, and $294.95**. If $147 is indeed a strong support you're tracking, it implies a *very significant further downside risk* if current support levels fail, as it would represent a break below its recent 52-week low and a continuation of its downtrend to levels not seen in over a year. --- ### **Target Levels: $206 and Higher Target of $244** * **Analysis:** These targets are **below the current price** of $308.62. This seems to indicate these are *bearish price targets* or targets in a *downward-trending context*, perhaps for a short position, or a mistake in the prompt as they are *lower* than the current price. * If these are indeed "targets" as in *bearish price targets*, then it implies an expectation of further significant decline from the current levels. * **$206 Target:** This would represent a further drop of approximately $102.62 from the current price, pushing UNH even lower than its 52-week low. * **$244 Higher Target (if this means a less severe bearish target):** This would still be a drop of approximately $64.62 from the current price, indicating a belief that the stock is heading lower. Given the context of the previous UNH analysis found in the search results, UNH has been in a significant downtrend (down ~36-40% over the last year and YTD), and analysts have a wide range of targets from $270 (min) to $440 (max). **Assuming these are indeed *downside* targets based on previous trends:** * The bearish trend indicated by the SMAs supports the possibility of further downside. * The $244 level would be above its 52-week low ($248.88) but still a significant drop. * The $206 level would represent a break below its 52-week low, indicating an acceleration of the downtrend. --- ### **Overall Outlook for UNH:** UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is currently in a **clear long-term and medium-term downtrend**, as evidenced by its price being significantly below its 200-day, 100-day, and 50-day SMAs. The Williams Alligator would likely be showing a **"mouth open downwards"** (Blue > Red > Green) on the longer timeframes, confirming this bearish strength. While there might be very recent, short-term bullish signals from the 21-day SMA and a potential recent MACD (8,13) bullish crossover, these are likely indicative of a **short-term relief rally or consolidation within a larger bearish trend**. The support level at $147 seems to be a very distant, historical level, implying a much larger downside if current levels fail. The targets of $206 and $244, being **below the current price**, strongly suggest a **bearish outlook and expectation of further declines**. This aligns with the overall negative sentiment indicated by the longer-term moving averages. **Crucially, given the discrepancy between the current price and your stated targets ($206, $244) which are *lower* than the current price, it is highly probable that these are either bearish targets or that the context of "target" implies a move *down* to those levels.** **Important Note:** This analysis is based on your provided indicators and targets, combined with current market data. UNH has been subject to specific company news (e.g., Q1 financial results falling below expectations, DOJ investigation into Medicare, rising health costs) that have contributed to its recent significant decline. Always conduct your own thorough fundamental and technical research, consider all relevant news, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NYSE:UNHLong
by CheeseburgerLover
1
UNH - Bullish Trade IdeaUNH Trade Plan : Entry Zone Momentum Breakout Entry (Candle Trigger): Reclaim of 314.76 level (15m) with bullish engulfing candle or strong candle 12cloud (15m/30m). Ideal Pull Back Entry Range (Micro Pullback): $310.50 – $312.20 (deep liquidity pocket + 1H bullish order block). Entry refinement = Wait for 15m or 30m candle signal + WTMA inverse Arc or Level 3 Floating candle 🛡 Stop Loss / Take-Profit Ladder Stop Loss Zone: $308.65 (under VWAP band and bottom of HTF breaker) TP Ladder: TP1: $317.35 → Weak high sweep TP2: $320.63 → Final breakout retest TP3: $324.18 → Macro swing target (2H FVG supply hit)
NYSE:UNHLong
by Shon_TheWolf
2
Strong Recovery Signals After UnitedHealth (UNH) Stock DeclineUnitedHealth (UNH) shares have sharply declined due to the company's first-quarter financial results for 2025 falling below expectations and the United States Department of Justice's investigation into Medicare. The downward revision of earnings forecasts and rising health costs have increased selling pressure. However, the stock is currently showing signs of recovery from a low around the 318 USD level. Its strong market position, broad customer base, and analysts' target prices reaching up to 440 USD indicate UNH's potential for growth in the medium to long term. Volatility may continue in the short term, but fundamental indicators support a recovery.
NYSE:UNHLong
by celilADIGUZEL
UNH Weekly Options Setup – Short-Term Pullback Risk (2025-06-11)📉 UNH Weekly Options Setup – Short-Term Pullback Risk (2025-06-11) Ticker: NYSE:UNH (UnitedHealth Group) Bias: Short-Term Bearish Setup Timing: Market Open | Confidence: 70% 🔍 AI Model Consensus Overview 📍 Price: ~$310.56 📈 Momentum: Strong intraday bullish momentum — price above 10, 50, and 200 EMAs 📉 RSI: 5-min RSI ~79 → overbought 🎯 Max Pain: $300 → potential gravitational pull 🧠 Sentiment Split: Bullish Models: Grok/xAI & DeepSeek → Focus on short-term momentum and trend continuation Bearish Models: Llama/Meta & Gemini/Google → Emphasize overbought conditions & option pressure to steer price toward $300 ⚖️ Strategic Summary All models agree that: • UNH is technically strong, but very overbought • Max pain at $300 presents a downside magnet • Both call and put options have tradable liquidity Disagreement: • Bulls see trend continuation • Bears expect short-term correction before any continuation ✅ Recommended Trade 🎯 Direction: PUT 🛒 Strike: $300 📅 Expiry: 2025-06-13 💵 Entry Price: $0.60 🎯 Profit Target: $0.90 (+50%) 🛑 Stop Loss: $0.30 (–50%) 📈 Confidence: 70% ⏰ Entry Timing: Market open ⚠️ Risk Factors • Continuation of bullish breakout can kill put value fast • Sharp intraday whipsaws common near RSI extremes • Price staying pinned above $310 would weaken max pain magnet effect • Use tight stop-losses and limited position sizing 📣 Do you fade overbought RSI or ride momentum on NYSE:UNH ? 💬 Drop your setup 👇 & follow for more AI-backed trade ideas.
NYSE:UNHShort
by quantsignals
9