7/15/25 - $obtc - FYI.7/15/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: OTC:OBTC
FYI.
- out of pocket this week, but wanted to comment here given it's my largest position and BTC trade has worked in terms of how i'm managing this
- go read last posts for context
- OBTC remains at >10% discount to spot BTC. so as of writing this morning, you're still buying equivalent of $103k/BTC
- talked w the Osprey/ Rex team the other week, and my impression is the conversion WILL happen, but it WONT happen in the immediate term (or that will be a gift) - i can get into that in the comments.
- which is to say, I'd expect late Sep/Oct to remain the bogey
- that's 3 mo away, so expect this to edge closer to 1x mNAV (vs. 0.88 mNAV) today as we get closer to that event.
- i'm using IBIT as my hedge here to reduce my risk on underlying risk in the meanwhile
- so what that means is of BTC trades back down to say $100k and OBTC remains at a 10% discount, we're looking at something like a simple $3-4/shr off $OBTC. I also have a slightly larger exposure to OTC:OBTC that I like to hedge. so I'm basically taking 25% of my size, which is ~50% of book in $OBTC... which means 25% of 50% is about 12.5%. I can buy the Oct ATM strikes ~$67 on IBIT for about $6-ish. and I need about 1.25% to 1.5% size in these (b/c they're 10x-1) to reach this ~12.5% exposure on the short/ hedge size.
- hope that makes sense - it's the simplest/ purest way i can think to hedge
- if anyone has other ideas LMK
- i am watching mkts, but a bit disconnected (touching grass this week), so will do my best to respond, but unless it's urgent or worth responding immediately i'll let it bake until next week
be well and stack sats.
V
