USD/RUB at the end of the triangle pattern 🦐The market after the sharp rise till 82.750 level retraced till the 0.5 Fib level of the upper move.
After testing the triangles lines is now getting to the end of it and due to the weaken time of the USD is pushing to the downside.
We draw 2 important structure in blue that will give us the confirmation of the trend and an opportunity to take a position at the resets of it.
If it will occur a break to the downside our target will be around 66.500, on the other hand if the market will gain momentum and break on the upper side at retest of the resistance zone we could easily target the recent highs.
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Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
RUBUSD trade ideas
Waiting BuyAt a glance of the overall story we can see USD / RUB is in the process of accumulating and forming a price wedge in an earlier uptrend. and in the future 51% of prices will exit the wedge area in an upward direction. Currently we can wait to buy at the bottom of the wedge as I drew and taget reasonable, flexible, can close early when prices show signs of recovery and after the return we will continue to buy up according to the model price.
Another sad jobless, earnings and a bit about ruble The main events of yesterday were centered around statistics from Europe and the United States, as well as reporting by US corporations.
The data came out habitually weak. But on the whole, quite unexpectedly, Europe looked relatively less weak then the United States. Partially this can explain yesterday's growth of the euro against the dollar (besides this, traders talk about the end of the month and the related rebalancing of investment portfolios, which provoked a sharp increase in demand for the euro). EU GDP for the first quarter fell, but not by 4.8% in the United States, but by 3.8%. Unemployment increased, but only slightly (from 7.3% to 7.4%), which looked particularly contrasted with information from the United States, where the number of jobless claims increased by another 3.8 million, and expectations of unemployment in the United States at around 20 % are already perceived as a given.
In this regard, the McKinsey & Co. report turned out to be quite revealing, which states that up to 57 million US workers will suffer from the economic consequences of the pandemic.
In general, everything is still extremely bad in the USA and the Eurozone. Accordingly, the stock market, both the United States and Europe - is an excellent object for sales.
As for the relatively good reports from US giants, we recall that you should not confuse the exception with the rules. The rule is that, with rare exceptions (Microsoft, Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon), the financial conditions of the vast majority of US corporations has deteriorated sharply: we are talking about a drop in sales by tens of percent and profits at times. So there is still no reason to buy in the US stock market.
The ECB meeting did not bring any surprises. The rate was left unchanged, and the head of the Central Bank of Europe, Christine Lagarde, warned that the region would experience an unprecedented economic downturn. In general, according to the results of the week of the Central Banks, the Bank of Japan turned out to be the most aggressive.
Beating the dollar in the foreign exchange market, which was systemic and consistent throughout the first half of the week, yesterday became quite chaotic. The dollar suffered losses against the euro and the pound, but it strengthened against the Japanese yen, Canadian and Australian dollars. Friday is generally good for taking profits in the EURUSD and GBPUSD purchases. So today we tend to sell these pairs within the day. Naturally, we will do this without fanaticism and with mandatory comparatively small stops.
And one more thing about our favorite position - the sale of the Russian ruble. Yesterday, extremely unfortunate news appeared for him. According to Bloomberg, the Russian Federation plans to allow the Central Bank to print money for the purchase of government bonds. The purpose of this maneuver is understandable - to close the black hole in the budget. But the signal for the ruble is negative. On the one hand, this is a recognition of the lack of domestic demand for government bonds in sufficient volume (external demand in the current conditions is weak). On the other hand, this is the launch of a printing press, which means inflation. There is another aspect of the problem. Formally, all this is proposed so as not to touch the reserves. On this occasion, there is an assumption that the authorities are very afraid to show that the king is naked - this means a strong discrepancy between the nominal size of the National Wealth Fund and the real liquid assets that are available. In general, the ruble's prospects are not yet in doubt. So feel free to sell.
USDRUB The ruble is not a reliable currency to save its funds.Only on a global scale, when we see that the ruble is waiting for it to become visible, that a figure will form in the upward channel, and in a couple of months we will see the ruble 90.
At a minimum, the level of 90 rubles has been tested.
From the factors of decline:
oil war
Help to banks is uncertain (you need to turn on the machine)
Help is required for business (tax avoidance, loans, payments, you need to turn on the machine)
No need to give money to the people (you need to turn on the machine)
UbliWe publish a very probable scenario of further price movement)
A good period for a long purchase has actually come