Gold’s Got Commitment Issues, Short the GhostingWe’ve reached a premium zone, tagged prior Buy-to-Sell Liquidity (BTL) above 3,778, and filled a local imbalance. With structure breaking above the previous bearish trend line but reacting to a liquidity zone, we are anticipating a rejection and retracement during the Tokyo and London sessions before NY opens.
Thesis: Trendline Structure
Clean break above the bearish structure; price is testing the zone where buyers may exhaust.
Rejected cleanly from the Sell-Side Liquidity box between 3,775–3,780, suggesting seller presence.
Key Imbalances
Major Order Flow Imbalance at 3,760 already tapped and showing reaction. Further downside liquidity targets resting in imbalance zones 3,715 and 3,685, offering high RR plays.
Market Context
Price flipped bullish into NY last week but overextended into a thin volume zone. This leaves us with a high probability of a retrace to retest deeper imbalances and prior demand structure.
Macro levels like PDH (3,782) and PDL (3,322) give us range clarity. Now let's get into the execution.
Execution Plan
Entry Zone - 3,775.50–3,780.00 (confirmed reaction)
TP1 - 3,760 (imbalance fill)
TP2 - 3,743 (prior OF zone)
SL - Above 3,783
Trade Logic - Enter short post-Tokyo if price retests 3,775–3,780 with rejection candle on LTF (5–15min). Confirm with volume divergence or weak delta.
Risk Context
Avoid chasing price, NY open tends to offer better fills. Watch the 3,743–3,715 zone. Strong demand may react here into NY. If price reclaims 3,783, invalidate short bias and reassess.
Notes
Liquidity Grab has already occurred on the upside. Watch for Order Flow Absorption between 3,760–3,765. Tokyo volume is often deceptive do not overcommit early. Look for a full 1:3 setup and scale partials at TP1.
If you followed this plan, how did your entry go? Did your execution align with the bias? Drop your screenshots, tag me, or reply with your play-by-play always keen to sharpen my edge.
