Is SP500 / US M2 Money Supply telling us a story?Historically this ratio has inflected from key levels. Last week the upper boundary of what 8 would call a normal range has acted as support. If history rhymes to dot com bubble, this AI bubble can bounce from these levels and see an increase until Q4 2026, then a sharp fall will follow. To the lower boundary of that normal range.
SPIUSD trade ideas
X1: SPX500/US500 Short Trade Risking 1% to make 1.35%FOREXCOM:SPX500 / CAPITALCOM:US500 Short for week, with my back testing of this strategy, it hits multiple possible take profits, manage your position accordingly.
Risking 1% to make 1.35%
Note: Manage your risk yourself, its risky trade, see how much your can risk yourself on this trade.
TP-1 is high probability TP but don't overload your risk like greedy, be disciplined trader.
Use proper risk management
Looks like good trade.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice
S&P 500 - Medium Timeframe AnalysisAs illustrated, we appear to be in the final wave to the upside. At this stage, I’m treating Wave 5 as a standard impulse. However, given that Wave 4 retraced deeply, nearly to the termination point of Wave 1, there remains a modest possibility that this higher-degree Wave 5 in gray, which began in 2020, could ultimately unfold as an ending diagonal. That said, this scenario remains highly unlikely, as the internal structure of the preceding waves does not exhibit the characteristics of corrective price action.
The S&P 500 Is Hitting New Highs, But Its Charts Look MixedThe S&P 500 SP:SPX has made a series of new all-time closing and intra-day highs in recent days as Wall Street staged a remarkable comeback from the April lows that followed President Donald Trump's announcement of "Liberation Day" tariffs. Does fundamental and technical analysis say the key index could go higher from here ... or pull back?
Let's check it out:
The S&P 500's Fundamental Analysis
The SPX fell more than 21% intraday in less than seven weeks between its Feb. 19 peak and its April 7 low as Trump rolled out his plan for big tariffs on foreign imports.
Many investors feared that high import duties -- coupled with foreign retaliatory tariffs on American exports -- would boost U.S. inflation and unemployment at the same time, creating "stagflation."
But about a week after Trump rolled out the "Liberation Day" tariffs on April 2, the president paused much of the plan for 90 days to allow for trade talks with other countries.
Risk-on assets quickly started to come back as Wall Street began to think deals with trading partners might blossom. So far, only the United Kingdom, China and Vietnam have played ball, but that's been good enough for many investors.
Meanwhile, consumer-level U.S. inflation has largely been beaten back (at least for now), and Trump has had other economic victories as well.
For example, his "Big, Beautiful Bill" of tax cuts and spending changes recently passed into law, offering what many see as multiple pro-growth provisions.
True, the Congressional Budget Office warned that the Big, Beautiful Bill could add some $3.3 trillion to the U.S. government's already huge deficits over the next decade. However, the agency's projections didn't include $2.8 trillion of expected revenues over the next 10 years from Trump's tariffs.
The CBO also chose to model almost no economic growth over the next decade, which probably isn't very realistic.
Of course, it's still unclear whether Wall Street has already priced in all of the "Big, Beautiful Bill" potential positives, or whether the measure's tax cuts and deregulation will have their desired economic effects.
Similarly, we don't know whether there are any more bilateral trade deals around the corner, or whether the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates -- which could boost stocks by making bond and money-market yields less attractive.
The S&P 500's Technical Analysis
Now let's look at the SPX's chart going back some four months and running through midday Tuesday:
Readers will see that the S&P 500 has been in a clear uptrend for the past three months, as denoted by the orange- and purple-shaded areas above.
The index has colored neatly within the lines, finding support at the lower trendline in mid-June. Additionally, support came at the S&P 500's 21-day Exponential Moving average, or "EMA, marked with a green line above.
More recently, the S&P 500 also enjoyed the benefits of what we call a "golden cross." That's when the index's 50-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," marked with a blue line) crosses above a rising 200-day SMA (marked with a red line). That's historically a bullish technical signal for the index.
The S&P 500 also experienced "Day One" bullish reversals on May 27 and June 23. Those "Day Ones" were then confirmed on June 3 and June 26, respectively.
A "Day One" reversal occurs when an index reversed direction up or down on increased trading volume, followed by a "Confirmation Day" that moves the market in the same direction as the reversal on increased volume as well. That combination typically signifies changes in an index's short-term trend.
Now, astute readers might notice that the S&P 500's June 23 "Day One" reversal occurred on decreased day-over-day trading volume.
However, that's misleading because the market day just prior to June 23 was a "triple-witching" day, which technical analysts therefore discard.
Readers should also understand that there must be at least a one-day pause between a "Day One" reversal and a "Confirmation Day." Otherwise, technical analysts will consider both days to represent one move, and we wouldn't have a volume-based technical confirmation.
Next, let's look at the SPX's chart going back to January and running through midday Tuesday:
This chart shows that the S&P 500 is in danger of putting in what's called a "Double Top" pattern of bearish reversal, denoted with the red boxes above marked "Top 1" and "Top 2." With all that's going on politically and geopolitically, that's a concern.
On top of that, Q2 earnings season begins next week, and analysts' consensus is for rather paltry 5% year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 component companies as a whole.
In addition, the S&P 500 has a conflicting Relative Strength Index ("RSI") and Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or "MACD").
The index's RSI, marked with gray lines at the above chart's top, is practically at technically overbought levels.
But at the same time, the daily MACD (marked with black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart's bottom) is showing signs of weakness.
The histogram of S&P 500's 9-day EMA (the blue bars) is now below the zero-bound, which is historically a short-term bearish technical signal.
On top of that, the 12-day EMA (the black line) is threatening to cross under the 26-day EMA (the gold line). This hasn't happened yet, but would be a short-term bearish signal if it did.
Add it all up and the S&P 500 is showing a mixed technical picture right now despite trading at or close to all-time record highs.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in S&P 500-related ETFs or mutual funds at the time of writing this column.)
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Quick take on the S&P500From the very short-term perspective, the SP:SPX is currently stuck in a tight range. Waiting for a little breakout.
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
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S&P Bullish Flag developing supported at 6180Trump Softens Tariff Stance:
Trump said the Aug. 1 tariff deadline isn’t firm, easing fears of an immediate trade war. US equity futures rose on hopes for more negotiation. Japan criticized the planned 25% tariff, calling it “truly regrettable.”
Texas Floods – Trump to Visit:
Over 100 people died in the Texas floods, including 27 children. Trump said he’ll visit the state Friday to support recovery efforts. The news may draw attention to infrastructure and emergency response spending.
Apple Loses AI Chief to Meta:
Apple’s AI lead, Ruoming Pang, is leaving for Meta’s new AI unit. This raises more questions about Apple’s AI strategy, while Meta’s aggressive hiring supports its tech edge.
US Resumes Ukraine Weapons Aid:
Biden will restart weapons shipments to Ukraine, reversing a previous pause. This could support defense stocks, though broader market impact is limited for now.
Takeaway:
Markets welcomed Trump’s trade flexibility, lifting sentiment. Watch tech and industrials as traders react to shifts in AI leadership and trade policy.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6290
Resistance Level 2: 6340
Resistance Level 3: 6400
Support Level 1: 6180
Support Level 2: 6120
Support Level 3: 6065
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPX500 Awaits Breakout as Trade Talks Fuel Market CautionWall Street Edges Up Amid Tariff Talks & Trade Turbulence
U.S. stock index inched higher on Wednesday as markets remain on edge over President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff stance and the ongoing negotiations with global trade partners. Traders are cautiously watching for clarity, with sentiment shifting quickly on any updates.
📉 SPX500 Technical Outlook
The index continues to consolidate within a narrow range between 6223 and 6246. A confirmed breakout from this zone is needed to define the next directional move.
A break below 6223 would confirm bearish continuation toward 6194, with potential extension to 6143.
A break above 6246 would shift the bias bullish, targeting 6282, followed by 6305.
Key Levels:
Support: 6223 / 6195 / 6143
Resistance: 6282 / 6305
S&P500 Strong Buy Signal flashed for the 3rd time in 2 years!The S&500 index (SPX) is comfortably trading above its previous All Time High (ATH) and shows no signs of stopping here. Coming off a 1D MA50/ 100 Bullish Cross, we expect the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) to turn now into the first long-term Support going towards the end of the year.
The last 1D MA50/ 100 Bullish Cross (December 15 2023) was nothing but a bullish continuation signal, which extended the uptrend all the way to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, before a pull-back test of the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) again.
The 1W RSI is now on the same level (63.30) it was then. In fact it is also on the same level it was on June 05 2023, which was another such bullish continuation signal that peaked on the 2.0 Fib ext.
This suggests that we have a rare long-term Buy Signal in our hands, only the 3rd time in 2 years that has emerged. Based on that, we should be expecting to see 7600 as the next Target before it hits the 2.0 Fib ext and pulls back to the 1D MA100 again and there is certainly enough time to do this by the end of the year, assuming the macroeconomic environment favors (trade deals, potential Fed Rate cuts etc).
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S&P 500 (SPX) – Gann & Market Timing Outlook!We're currently leaning towards a bullish melt-up scenario into August 2025, supported by both price structure and Gann time analysis.
🔹 Key Gann Time Clusters:
11th July 2025
14th July 2025
These dates may act as pivotal turning points. The ideal scenario for bulls would be a short-term pullback into the 15th–16th July window, which could then confirm the next major leg up.
📈 Price action is riding strongly above the 1/1 and 2/1 Gann angles – a clear sign of accumulation and strength. The setup aligns well with a continued rally targeting August 2025 as a significant cycle top before any serious correction unfolds.
🎯 Watch the coming days closely. If we get a healthy dip, it may be your best buy-the-dip opportunity ahead of a major move.
$100 to $1k to $10k to $100k: TRADING MASTERCLASSHow I approach trading:
Trading is a mostly psychological endeavor
You will not WIN LONGTERM in trading until you WIN YOURSELF (i.e. master your emotions)
I use Technical Analysis to help me determine overall Market Direction and Entry/Exit points
I do not use ANY fundamental analysis in my trading
I use Elliott Wave Theory to understand MARKET STRUCTURE
I use a combination of Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (AVWAP), Fixed Range Volume Point of Control (VPOC) and custom coded Momentum indicators to pinpoint Entry/Exit points
Risk Management:
I will generally aim for 2%-5% percent stop loss but price structure will dictate as well
Position sizing will be fluid
Targets will be fluid but will generally target key Fib Extensions, VWAPs or VPOCs..or a combination of all of the above
Starting Account Size:
$100
Goal:
Grow a small $100 account to $1k then $10k then $100k
Every trade will be public...wins and losses
I will be looking to make my first trade(s) shortly and will show Entry level, Stop Loss and Target
NONE OF THIS CONSTITUTES FINANCIAL ADVICE
Hmm...Since I started in crypto, I've seen this play out dozens of times. If it's your first time, I suggest looking at Bitcoin or Ethereum to get a rough idea of what this cycle looks like and how to recognize it.
I'm waiting for a blow off top, but I could just as easily be left in the dust. Time will tell, and my precious metals will keep me warm at night lol
Gap down is likely a bear trap - SPYSo the gap down looked bearish but the technicals are not confirming it. One more high is likely today or Monday. Gold is at resistance here. OIl found support and looks like a long. BTC rallied and can go higher but it's putting in daily bearish divergences. Natural Gas looks like it will bounce.
SPX - This IS the TOPA three day test of the high is as obscure as it can get, especially when I hear on tv that there is near certainty that every dip is a buying opportunity. We have enough for the move to count as a wave 5. The next move down should be a doozy. I'd be happy with a few down days with the intense resiliancy of stocks. Too much money in the system. Can prices go to infinity?
Trading at the market topHello,
The stock market is back at an all-time high. This often brings excitement for existing investors—and a sense of anxiety or even FOMO (fear of missing out) for those who stayed on the sidelines when prices were lower.
It’s tempting to jump in, especially with headlines filled with optimism and portfolios showing green across the board. But this is also a time for caution and patience.
After a sustained rally, price levels often outpace fundamentals like earnings growth, economic stability, or interest rate trends. In such moments, valuations can become stretched, and investor sentiment overly euphoric conditions that typically precede short-term pullbacks or corrections.
Buying at the top locks in risk, not value.
If you're feeling late to the party, remember that good investors don’t chase prices—they wait for prices to come to them.
The best opportunities often come in moments of fear, not euphoria. And while this market high may go higher still, history shows that eventually, corrections come—and those prepared for them are the ones who win in the end.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
S&P500 Bullish continuation developing close to ATHUS Secretary of State Marco Rubio is meeting Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov today at an ASEAN summit, as tensions remain high over the war in Ukraine. President Trump has criticized Putin and pledged more weapons for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukrainian allies are meeting in Rome to plan postwar rebuilding.
Trump also announced new tariff plans—50% on Brazil and 20% on the Philippines, though further talks are expected. He said a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas could be close, possibly within weeks.
In business news, X CEO Linda Yaccarino is stepping down, Meta faces a competition warning in France, and Wall Street banks are preparing financing for a $4.25 billion Boots buyout. Nvidia became the first company ever to hit a $4 trillion market value, boosted by strong investor demand.
US Equity Outlook:
Markets may trade mixed. Nvidia’s historic surge could lift tech stocks, but geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty may limit gains. Investors will watch for more updates on tariffs and global talks.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6290
Resistance Level 2: 6340
Resistance Level 3: 6400
Support Level 1: 6180
Support Level 2: 6120
Support Level 3: 6070
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPX500 Eyes New ATH – Key Levels in PlaySPX500 – Overview
The index remains under bullish pressure, with potential to record a new all-time high (ATH).
As long as the price holds above 6246, the bullish trend is likely to continue toward 6282.
A confirmed 1H close above 6287 could trigger further upside toward 6310 and 6341.
However, a break below 6223 would signal bearish momentum, opening the path toward 6195 and 6143.
Pivot Line: 6282
Resistance: 6310, 6341
Support: 6246, 6223, 6195
Sp500S&P 500 (SPX) Technical Update:
Closing Price: 5648.39 (as of last week’s close)
Outlook: The SPX appears poised for a potential rally, with immediate resistance levels identified at 5700.00, 5800.00, and 6000.00. Based on current technical indicators and market conditions, a continuation of the bullish trend to the 5800.00 level within the next month seems plausible.
Technical Indicators Supporting a Bullish Move:
Moving Averages: The SPX is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a strong bullish trend. The positive crossover between these moving averages often signals sustained upward momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently positioned in the bullish zone (above 50) and has not yet reached overbought conditions. This suggests that there is room for further upside before any potential reversal.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is above the signal line, and the histogram is in positive territory. This indicates that the momentum is favorable and supports the possibility of further gains.
Volume: Recent upward movements have been accompanied by increasing trading volume, which validates the strength of the rally and suggests that buying interest remains robust.
Summary: Given the strong technical indicators and the current market environment, the SPX is well-positioned to advance towards the 5800.00 level over the next month. Current buying opportunities appear favorable for potentially significant gains.