SPX: 75% chance Multi-Timeframe Reversal to 5,775-6,103 Zone **SPX MULTI-TIMEFRAME CYCLE CONFLUENCE ANALYSIS - SUPER VERSION**
**CURRENT SITUATION: July 7, 2025 - Price: 6,238**
Based on our quantitative cycle analysis across 4 timeframes, applying **ACTRAGEA hierarchical dominance principles** where ITM >> MTY >> TCY >> TYL.
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## **CYCLE HIERARCHY STATUS**
| **Timeframe** | **Cycle Phase** | **Status** | **Hierarchy** | **Key Level** |
|---------------|-----------------|------------|---------------|---------------|
| **ITM (1D)** | Phase 2 | FLAT | **DOMINANT** | Max: 6,284.65 **awaiting confirmation** |
| **TCY (1H)** | Phase 2 | FLAT | Secondary | Max: 6,284.65 **awaiting confirmation** |
| **MTY (270m)** | Phase 1 | LONG (+1.64%) | Subordinate | Seeking max: 6,359 |
| **TYL (15m)** | Phase 2 | LONG (+0.11%) | Subordinate | Max: 6,242.7 **awaiting confirmation** |
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## **PRIMARY SCENARIO (Probability: 75%)**
**DIRECTIONAL BIAS:** **Multi-timeframe reversal upon ITM maximum confirmation**
**RATIONALE:**
- **ITM timing**: 0 bars remaining from 50° percentile window → Maximum at 6,284.65 **awaiting confirmation** → Statistical pressure for confirmation increases daily
- **Hierarchical cascade**: **When ITM confirms maximum** → all subordinate cycles transition into Phase 3 (minimum search)
- **Current LONG positions** (MTY +1.64%, TYL +0.11%) face hierarchical override risk upon ITM maximum confirmation. Subordinate cycles will align regardless of current profitability.
**STATISTICAL PRICE LEVELS (50° Percentile):**
- **ITM**: 5,775.84
- **TCY**: 6,103.58
- **MTY**: 5,996.35
- **TYL**: 6,170.98
**STATISTICAL TIME WINDOWS (50° Percentile):**
- **ITM**: 65 bars | **TCY**: 58 bars | **MTY**: 62 bars | **TYL**: 81 bars
**EXTREME SCENARIOS (20° Percentile):**
- **ITM**: 5,420.71 | **TCY**: 5,934.73 | **MTY**: 5,728.16 | **TYL**: 6,084.71
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## **⚠️ ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO (Probability: 25%)**
**DIRECTIONAL BIAS:** ITM extension toward 80° percentile before maximum confirmation
**CONDITION:** ITM exceeds statistical time boundaries, allowing subordinate cycles temporary independence
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## **CRITICAL DECISION POINT**
**Confirmation Trigger:** ITM maximum validation at 6,284.65 → Phase 2→3 transition → Activation timeframe: Within 1-3 trading sessions (statistical pressure)
**Hierarchy Activation:** Immediate subordinate cycle alignment into Phase 3 upon ITM confirmation
**Invalidation:** Sustained break above 6,285 (negates ITM maximum thesis)
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## ** PROBABILITY FOUNDATION**
**75% probability derived from:**
- ITM expired timing creating high statistical pressure for confirmation
- Historical dominance patterns (85%+ subordination rate upon ITM phase changes)
- Dual Phase 2 alignment (ITM + TCY at identical maximum level awaiting confirmation)
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## **ACTRAGEA METHODOLOGY FOUNDATION**
Our **quantitative cycle framework** operates on **hierarchical dominance principles** where longer timeframes command shorter ones. Statistical levels represent **50° percentile probabilities**, not certainties. The **ITM critical juncture** at 6,284.65 creates high-probability setup for **coordinated multi-timeframe reversal initiation**.
**Performance Context:** Systems demonstrating 65.71% to 82.86% statistical reliability across timeframes.
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*Analysis based on ACTRAGEA hierarchical cycle principles and statistical percentile distributions. All levels represent probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes.*
