what ifdxy view i just want to leave there for my lulz and see what happens in a couple years so i can lol at myself yet again
DXY trade ideas
DXY Dollar Index – Ready to Drop
🌪️ DXY Dollar Index – Ready to Drop Like a Hot Potato? 💸
Hey traders! 🎯
The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is dancing inside a falling wedge 🔻, and it just hit the top of the party zone (red box 🎁).
📍 We're watching for a bounce up to this red zone near 98.151–98.299, then expecting a big slide down like a rollercoaster 🎢 toward:
🎯 Target 1: 97.907
🎯 Target 2: 97.650
🛑 Stop if it jumps over: 98.299
🌀 Pattern: Ending Diagonal / Wave 5 Setup
🧠 Logic: Smart money might be setting up the final wave before a major fall. Let it pop, then drop!
💡 It’s like the last spark before the fireworks go out 🎆
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#DXY #USDIndex #ForexTrading #Wave5 #PriceAction #ChartPattern #SimpleTrading #DollarDrop
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Let me know if you have ant suggestion ,
DXYThe current COT data shows a bullish bias for the U.S. Dollar, with institutional traders positioning net long. Although DXY is moving sideways, this positioning suggests a likely continuation of USD strength. If price breaks above key resistance levels, it would confirm the bullish sentiment reflected in the COT report.
Dollar $DXY Bullish WedgePretty clean falling wedge with divergence. Aligns with a pullback to come on BTC and Stocks.
A move back to 104 area would do some damage to risk on assets.
Follow for updates.
EURUSD heading for a bearish dropThere is a valid supply zone having a financial move that broke structure. looking properly at the left hand side of the supply zone there is no structural liquidity, so the supply zone is expected to fail before the sells, or create some form of liquidity around the supply zone.
Kindly follow Structure, POI, liquidity and can scale down to m5 for sniper entry and apply proper risk management.
### **Bearish Analysis of DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)**### **Bearish Analysis of DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)**
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has recently shown a weak trend, with a prevailing bearish sentiment in the market. The primary factors driving this outlook include:
### **1. Rising Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts**
- Recent weak U.S. inflation data (such as May's PPI and CPI) have reinforced market expectations that the Fed may cut rates as early as September.
- Morgan Stanley predicts the Fed could implement a cumulative 175 basis points in rate cuts by 2025, further reducing the dollar's appeal.
### **2. Trade Policy Uncertainty**
- The Trump administration has recently threatened new tariffs (e.g., 30% on imports) against the EU, Mexico, and other nations, escalating global trade tensions.
- Wall Street institutions warn that Trump’s tariff policies could trigger capital outflows, putting additional pressure on the dollar.
### **3. Growing Recession Concerns**
- Fears of a U.S. economic "hard landing" are intensifying, particularly due to deteriorating corporate orders, earnings forecasts, and capital expenditure plans, which could weaken the dollar’s safe-haven status.
- The expanding U.S. fiscal deficit (reaching $1.36 trillion this fiscal year) is further eroding confidence in the dollar.
### **4. Technical Weakness**
- Since the beginning of 2025, DXY has fallen by approximately **8.4%**, marking its worst annual start on record.
- The index currently faces key resistance at the **97.80-98.00** range. A failure to break above this level could lead to further declines toward **96.50** or lower.
- RSI and MACD indicators suggest weak short-term rebound momentum, maintaining a bearish bias.
### **5. Risk of Capital Outflows**
- The U.S. "**899 Asset Tax**" proposal could increase costs for foreign investors holding dollar-denominated assets, potentially accelerating global divestment from the dollar.
- Goldman Sachs estimates that the dollar remains **overvalued by ~15%**, leaving room for further depreciation.
### **Outlook**
In the near term, DXY’s movement will depend on:
- **June CPI Data** (A lower-than-expected reading could reinforce rate cut expectations, further weakening the dollar).
- **Trade Negotiation Developments** (Escalating tensions may trigger risk-off sentiment, while easing could relieve dollar pressure).
- **Fed Policy Signals** (More explicit dovish guidance could extend the dollar’s downtrend).
**Conclusion:** Given multiple bearish factors, the U.S. Dollar Index is likely to remain weak in the short term. Traders should closely monitor key economic data and policy shifts.
DXY Weekly Update — July 14, 2025⌛ Timeframe:
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📆 Analysis Date: July 14, 2025
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🎯 Weekly Bias: Bearish-to-Neutral (Potential for retracement or reversal)
🔎 Market Overview:
⬇️ Persistent USD Weakness:
DXY has dropped nearly 10% YTD, marking the steepest half-year decline since 1986.
📉 Rate Cut Expectations:
Markets are pricing in a potential 75bps rate cut by the Fed in H2 2025, pushing yields and the dollar lower.
📦 Trade War Fears:
Renewed tariff risks (targeting EU, Japan, Mexico, South Korea) aren't boosting demand for USD — a signal of lost safe-haven appeal.
⚖️ Central Bank Diversification:
Global reserve managers are rotating into gold and away from USD, weakening long-term structural demand.
🌀 Sentiment & Risk Appetite:
💸 Liquidity Demand is Soft:
DXY is retesting a 4H fair value gap (97.10–97.30), suggesting potential short-term consolidation or correction.
🌍 Risk-On Mood Returns:
According to Goldman Sachs, the USD is trading more like a "risk asset" than a haven, aligning with rising equity appetite.
📉 Technical Landscape:
🟠 4H Structure:
If DXY breaks below 97.00, next support lies at 96.37, followed by 95.50–96.00.
Consolidation expected if price remains within the FVG.
🔻 Key Resistance:
97.70–98.20 zone. A break above this area could change the tone to bullish.
📌 Summary:
🔷 Fundamentals show long-term dollar weakening (rates, trade tension, reserve shifts)
🔷 Sentiment aligns with risk-on appetite and reduced USD demand
🔷 Technicals at critical level; break below 97.00 opens room for correction, break above 97.70 shifts bias bullish
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🟠 Bias: Bearish to Neutral
Watch Levels: 97.00 support, 97.70–98.20 resistance
⚠️ Note: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always apply risk management.
✅ If you like this analysis, don't forget to like 👍, follow 🧠, and share your thoughts below 💬!
POSSIBLE PLAY FOR THE WEEKHTF KEY LEVEL
1. Premium gap/volume imbalance (DAILY TF)
2. monthly inverted fvg premium marked in Blue lines
I'd be watching the hourly time frame to get a setup as marked in red to engage for the week.
NOTE: CPI Tuesday
DXY: The Market Is Looking Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding above a key level of 97.370 So a bullish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next high. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
DXY Bearish Bias
Institutions are currently holding a net short position on the Dollar, indicating bearish sentiment. With a net position of -4,282, we may expect continued weakness in the DXY, especially if price reacts from key supply zones. Swing traders should remain cautious with long setups and prioritize opportunities aligned with USD weakness across major pairs.
Bold analysis for the most powerful currency in the world (DXY)Orange range: entering in several steps .
Green area: important support and exit point .
Important note: The gray line is the liquidity range
Watch the dance around this line carefully (bank positions are settled around this line)
And in my opinion, by increasing the price, they are emptying it on the buyers, so buy cautiously, but sell boldly.
GL
BTC vs DXYThe correlation between these two charts is striking. Now, both DXY and BTC have very completed patterns with BTC pretty high and DXY pretty low. Based on this chart it seems at least plausible that BTC should be topping in the next couple of months.
US interest rate reduction?!As you can see, the US dollar index has completed a 5-wave uptrend and after touching the top of the uptrend channel and breaking the uptrend line, it is currently in the second correction wave. I expect to see the beginning of the third correction wave soon. This may coincide with the reduction of the US interest rate in next week!!
Dollar Index Analysis [DXY]Market has show upper wicks for last 3 days which is the sign that there is still sell pressure. The daily candles for this week are range bound. 4H chart is showing short term uptrend which is maintaining higher highs and higher lows. We can use this range to have scalps in this range.
DXYInstitutions are currently holding a net short position on the Dollar, indicating bearish sentiment. With a net position of -4,282, we may expect continued weakness in the DXY, especially if price reacts from key supply zones. Swing traders should remain cautious with long setups and prioritize opportunities aligned with USD weakness across major pairs.
Dollar Index AnalysisDollar Index has been in continuous sell for last 5 Months. Has hit the demand zone and giving a pull back and short term trend in daily and 4H charts. From the 4H charts we can see that it is in short term uptrend move and has pushed higher and it is giving a pull back which is visible.
DXY Holds Above Channel Support: Next Leg Higher?Hey Traders,
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is consolidating just above a strong support cluster around 97.325, aligned with ascending channel structure and historical demand. Price action is suggesting a potential bullish continuation if this support zone holds firm.
Current Market Conditions:
* DXY is trading within a well-defined ascending channel, maintaining higher highs and higher lows.
* Price is currently hovering above the 97.325 key support area and mid-channel dynamic trendline.
* Recent candles show rejection from the lower boundary of the bullish channel, indicating buyers may be stepping in again.
* Structure remains bullish unless price closes decisively below 97.325.
Fundamental Analysis/Outlook:
The dollar remains buoyed by persistent inflation pressures and Fed Chair Powell’s continued hawkish tone. Markets are pricing in fewer rate cuts in the near term, reinforcing USD strength. Today’s USD resilience is also supported by mild risk-off sentiment ahead of U.S. CPI data and Powell’s congressional testimony, which could further move the greenback.
Targets:
* TP1: 97.756
* TP2: 98.085
* TP3: 98.373
Risk Management:
* Stop-loss: Below 97.325 to invalidate bullish structure.
* Risk-to-Reward (R\:R): Minimum 1:2 setup. Consider adjusting position size based on support behaviour and macro event volatility.
Technical Outlook:
* Price needs to hold above 97.421–97.325 zone to maintain bullish bias.
* Watch for bullish engulfing or momentum candles as confirmation for long setups.
* A break above 97.630 could accelerate the rally toward higher resistance at 98.373.
Conclusion:
DXY is at a decision point. If bulls maintain control above 97.325, the index could push higher toward the 98.00+ zone. Keep an eye on U.S. economic data and Fed commentary for directional confirmation.
Sign-off:
“In markets, clarity often lies just beyond the fear. Trade the levels, not the noise.”
💬 Let me know your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to boost and follow for more insights. Trade safe!
possibility of uptrendThe bullish pattern is expected to advance along the specified path to the specified resistance levels. Then there is a possibility of a trend change.
If the support area is broken, the continuation of the downward trend is likely.
DXY - to provide short term bounce here DXY to bounce off key double confluence here to $100 before collapsing
DXY Bearish Setup
Entry: 97.50 (current price)
Target (TP): 96.500 or below
Stop Loss (SL): ~97.80 (above recent swing high or resistance)
Risk Management: Essential — position size based on SL distance and account size
🔍 Trade Rationale:
Technical View: Price may be forming a lower high, suggesting possible downside continuation.
Fundamental Pressure:
Market cautious on Fed rate path
Tariff uncertainty could weaken USD
Upcoming FOMC minutes may add pressure if dovish signals emerge
DXY LOCAL SHORT|
✅DXY is about to retest a key structure level of 98.000
Which implies a high likelihood of a move down
As some market participants will be taking profit from long positions
While others will find this price level to be good for selling
So as usual we will have a chance to ride the wave of a bearish correction
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
DXY Trade Setup✅ Trade Setup Details:
Entry: 96.850
Stop Loss (SL): 96.650
Take Profit (TP): 97.350
✅ This is a good RRR. A 2.5:1 ratio means you're risking $1 to potentially earn $2.50 — favorable for consistent trading.
📈 Chart & Technical Analysis (based on your image):
✅ Entry is near the middle Bollinger Band and above Ichimoku cloud — a technical support zone.
✅ SL is placed below recent support and Ichimoku base, giving some buffer in case of volatility.
✅ TP at 97.350 aligns with the recent swing high or top of the breakout channel.
⚠️ Things to Watch:
If DXY drops below 96.700, it may signal weakness or a shift in sentiment — watch volume and price reaction.
If price stays above cloud and rising trendline, your trade remains valid.
🟢 Summary:
Bias: Bullish
Setup: Good technical entry with solid support below and clear resistance target.
Risk-to-Reward: Excellent (2.5:1)
Strategy: Hold unless price breaks below 96.650 with volume.
DXY shortPrice had broken our support level and hence i expect i continuous downward movement in price, although price cloud retest the support level that was turn into a resistance level before continuing it bearish move.
