S&P500 Strong Buy Signal flashed for the 3rd time in 2 years!The S&500 index (SPX) is comfortably trading above its previous All Time High (ATH) and shows no signs of stopping here. Coming off a 1D MA50/ 100 Bullish Cross, we expect the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) to turn now into the first long-term Support going towards the end of the year.
The last 1D MA50/ 100 Bullish Cross (December 15 2023) was nothing but a bullish continuation signal, which extended the uptrend all the way to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, before a pull-back test of the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) again.
The 1W RSI is now on the same level (63.30) it was then. In fact it is also on the same level it was on June 05 2023, which was another such bullish continuation signal that peaked on the 2.0 Fib ext.
This suggests that we have a rare long-term Buy Signal in our hands, only the 3rd time in 2 years that has emerged. Based on that, we should be expecting to see 7600 as the next Target before it hits the 2.0 Fib ext and pulls back to the 1D MA100 again and there is certainly enough time to do this by the end of the year, assuming the macroeconomic environment favors (trade deals, potential Fed Rate cuts etc).
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US500.F trade ideas
Gap down is likely a bear trap - SPYSo the gap down looked bearish but the technicals are not confirming it. One more high is likely today or Monday. Gold is at resistance here. OIl found support and looks like a long. BTC rallied and can go higher but it's putting in daily bearish divergences. Natural Gas looks like it will bounce.
Quick take on the S&P500From the very short-term perspective, the SP:SPX is currently stuck in a tight range. Waiting for a little breakout.
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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SPX may have retracement soon, taking profits timeAs if timing cannot be more coincidental, Trump has announced slapping 25% tariff on Japan and South Korea. This sends chills back to the stock market as the SPX has recently climbed and exceeded the previous high of 6148 price level.
This week, I expect the SPX to retrace to the various levels I indicated on the chart. Profit target 3 and 4 looks less likely but not impossible. 1 & 2 are more likely and that again would be a good entry level to accumulate.
No, I am not shorting as I invest in the VOO ETF for long term so retracement is a good opportunity to long.
Hmm...Since I started in crypto, I've seen this play out dozens of times. If it's your first time, I suggest looking at Bitcoin or Ethereum to get a rough idea of what this cycle looks like and how to recognize it.
I'm waiting for a blow off top, but I could just as easily be left in the dust. Time will tell, and my precious metals will keep me warm at night lol
SPX: 75% chance Multi-Timeframe Reversal to 5,775-6,103 Zone **SPX MULTI-TIMEFRAME CYCLE CONFLUENCE ANALYSIS - SUPER VERSION**
**CURRENT SITUATION: July 7, 2025 - Price: 6,238**
Based on our quantitative cycle analysis across 4 timeframes, applying **ACTRAGEA hierarchical dominance principles** where ITM >> MTY >> TCY >> TYL.
---
## **CYCLE HIERARCHY STATUS**
| **Timeframe** | **Cycle Phase** | **Status** | **Hierarchy** | **Key Level** |
|---------------|-----------------|------------|---------------|---------------|
| **ITM (1D)** | Phase 2 | FLAT | **DOMINANT** | Max: 6,284.65 **awaiting confirmation** |
| **TCY (1H)** | Phase 2 | FLAT | Secondary | Max: 6,284.65 **awaiting confirmation** |
| **MTY (270m)** | Phase 1 | LONG (+1.64%) | Subordinate | Seeking max: 6,359 |
| **TYL (15m)** | Phase 2 | LONG (+0.11%) | Subordinate | Max: 6,242.7 **awaiting confirmation** |
---
## **PRIMARY SCENARIO (Probability: 75%)**
**DIRECTIONAL BIAS:** **Multi-timeframe reversal upon ITM maximum confirmation**
**RATIONALE:**
- **ITM timing**: 0 bars remaining from 50° percentile window → Maximum at 6,284.65 **awaiting confirmation** → Statistical pressure for confirmation increases daily
- **Hierarchical cascade**: **When ITM confirms maximum** → all subordinate cycles transition into Phase 3 (minimum search)
- **Current LONG positions** (MTY +1.64%, TYL +0.11%) face hierarchical override risk upon ITM maximum confirmation. Subordinate cycles will align regardless of current profitability.
**STATISTICAL PRICE LEVELS (50° Percentile):**
- **ITM**: 5,775.84
- **TCY**: 6,103.58
- **MTY**: 5,996.35
- **TYL**: 6,170.98
**STATISTICAL TIME WINDOWS (50° Percentile):**
- **ITM**: 65 bars | **TCY**: 58 bars | **MTY**: 62 bars | **TYL**: 81 bars
**EXTREME SCENARIOS (20° Percentile):**
- **ITM**: 5,420.71 | **TCY**: 5,934.73 | **MTY**: 5,728.16 | **TYL**: 6,084.71
---
## **⚠️ ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO (Probability: 25%)**
**DIRECTIONAL BIAS:** ITM extension toward 80° percentile before maximum confirmation
**CONDITION:** ITM exceeds statistical time boundaries, allowing subordinate cycles temporary independence
---
## **CRITICAL DECISION POINT**
**Confirmation Trigger:** ITM maximum validation at 6,284.65 → Phase 2→3 transition → Activation timeframe: Within 1-3 trading sessions (statistical pressure)
**Hierarchy Activation:** Immediate subordinate cycle alignment into Phase 3 upon ITM confirmation
**Invalidation:** Sustained break above 6,285 (negates ITM maximum thesis)
---
## ** PROBABILITY FOUNDATION**
**75% probability derived from:**
- ITM expired timing creating high statistical pressure for confirmation
- Historical dominance patterns (85%+ subordination rate upon ITM phase changes)
- Dual Phase 2 alignment (ITM + TCY at identical maximum level awaiting confirmation)
---
## **ACTRAGEA METHODOLOGY FOUNDATION**
Our **quantitative cycle framework** operates on **hierarchical dominance principles** where longer timeframes command shorter ones. Statistical levels represent **50° percentile probabilities**, not certainties. The **ITM critical juncture** at 6,284.65 creates high-probability setup for **coordinated multi-timeframe reversal initiation**.
**Performance Context:** Systems demonstrating 65.71% to 82.86% statistical reliability across timeframes.
---
*Analysis based on ACTRAGEA hierarchical cycle principles and statistical percentile distributions. All levels represent probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes.*
SPX - This IS the TOPA three day test of the high is as obscure as it can get, especially when I hear on tv that there is near certainty that every dip is a buying opportunity. We have enough for the move to count as a wave 5. The next move down should be a doozy. I'd be happy with a few down days with the intense resiliancy of stocks. Too much money in the system. Can prices go to infinity?
Trading at the market topHello,
The stock market is back at an all-time high. This often brings excitement for existing investors—and a sense of anxiety or even FOMO (fear of missing out) for those who stayed on the sidelines when prices were lower.
It’s tempting to jump in, especially with headlines filled with optimism and portfolios showing green across the board. But this is also a time for caution and patience.
After a sustained rally, price levels often outpace fundamentals like earnings growth, economic stability, or interest rate trends. In such moments, valuations can become stretched, and investor sentiment overly euphoric conditions that typically precede short-term pullbacks or corrections.
Buying at the top locks in risk, not value.
If you're feeling late to the party, remember that good investors don’t chase prices—they wait for prices to come to them.
The best opportunities often come in moments of fear, not euphoria. And while this market high may go higher still, history shows that eventually, corrections come—and those prepared for them are the ones who win in the end.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
SPX - Are you catching the rotation trends? SPX is still holding very bullish price action. Technicals are pointing towards higher price and todays inside consolidation day certainly helps digest recent gains.
Along with the flat indices market session, we did observe some massive capital rotation trends.
Financials saw a pretty strong down move across the board. JPM / BAC / C all saw large outflows. We were positioned on the short side of financials and took profits on JPM puts.
Even with the big selloff in financials, SPX held up surprisingly well.
Capital simply rotated instead of outright leaving the market. Bullish Signal.
Technology, Energy, Materials, Health care, Transports all saw capital inflow trends.
Rotation into under preforming sectors is a sign that markets could be staging another healthy leg up.
We still have an upside target over 6300 on SPX.
S&P 500 (SPX) – Gann & Market Timing Outlook!We're currently leaning towards a bullish melt-up scenario into August 2025, supported by both price structure and Gann time analysis.
🔹 Key Gann Time Clusters:
11th July 2025
14th July 2025
These dates may act as pivotal turning points. The ideal scenario for bulls would be a short-term pullback into the 15th–16th July window, which could then confirm the next major leg up.
📈 Price action is riding strongly above the 1/1 and 2/1 Gann angles – a clear sign of accumulation and strength. The setup aligns well with a continued rally targeting August 2025 as a significant cycle top before any serious correction unfolds.
🎯 Watch the coming days closely. If we get a healthy dip, it may be your best buy-the-dip opportunity ahead of a major move.
S&P500 Bullish continuation developing close to ATHUS Secretary of State Marco Rubio is meeting Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov today at an ASEAN summit, as tensions remain high over the war in Ukraine. President Trump has criticized Putin and pledged more weapons for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukrainian allies are meeting in Rome to plan postwar rebuilding.
Trump also announced new tariff plans—50% on Brazil and 20% on the Philippines, though further talks are expected. He said a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas could be close, possibly within weeks.
In business news, X CEO Linda Yaccarino is stepping down, Meta faces a competition warning in France, and Wall Street banks are preparing financing for a $4.25 billion Boots buyout. Nvidia became the first company ever to hit a $4 trillion market value, boosted by strong investor demand.
US Equity Outlook:
Markets may trade mixed. Nvidia’s historic surge could lift tech stocks, but geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty may limit gains. Investors will watch for more updates on tariffs and global talks.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6290
Resistance Level 2: 6340
Resistance Level 3: 6400
Support Level 1: 6180
Support Level 2: 6120
Support Level 3: 6070
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPX500 Eyes New ATH – Key Levels in PlaySPX500 – Overview
The index remains under bullish pressure, with potential to record a new all-time high (ATH).
As long as the price holds above 6246, the bullish trend is likely to continue toward 6282.
A confirmed 1H close above 6287 could trigger further upside toward 6310 and 6341.
However, a break below 6223 would signal bearish momentum, opening the path toward 6195 and 6143.
Pivot Line: 6282
Resistance: 6310, 6341
Support: 6246, 6223, 6195
Sp500S&P 500 (SPX) Technical Update:
Closing Price: 5648.39 (as of last week’s close)
Outlook: The SPX appears poised for a potential rally, with immediate resistance levels identified at 5700.00, 5800.00, and 6000.00. Based on current technical indicators and market conditions, a continuation of the bullish trend to the 5800.00 level within the next month seems plausible.
Technical Indicators Supporting a Bullish Move:
Moving Averages: The SPX is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a strong bullish trend. The positive crossover between these moving averages often signals sustained upward momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently positioned in the bullish zone (above 50) and has not yet reached overbought conditions. This suggests that there is room for further upside before any potential reversal.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is above the signal line, and the histogram is in positive territory. This indicates that the momentum is favorable and supports the possibility of further gains.
Volume: Recent upward movements have been accompanied by increasing trading volume, which validates the strength of the rally and suggests that buying interest remains robust.
Summary: Given the strong technical indicators and the current market environment, the SPX is well-positioned to advance towards the 5800.00 level over the next month. Current buying opportunities appear favorable for potentially significant gains.
S&P to go down a bit....good time to hop on UVIX!Saw this from a mile away. We are now at the cross hair between high tariffs and the tail-end of a week long rally that was mostly based on hot air. What's next? Gravity will prevail.
The VIX has been at super low levels historically. UVIX is a nice 2X! Jumped like 4% already today and there's way more upside. Best of luck and always do your own due diligence.
SPX500 Range-Bound Between 6223–6246 |Breakout Will Define TrendSPX500 – Technical & Fundamental Outlook
The SPX500 is currently trading within a narrow consolidation zone between 6223 and 6246.
A 1H or 4H candle close below 6223 would confirm a bearish breakout, with downside targets at 6191 and 6143.
Conversely, a 1H close above 6246 would signal bullish continuation, potentially driving the price toward the next resistance at 6287, followed by 6305.
Support: 6223 / 6191 / 6143
Resistance: 6287 / 6305
Fundamental Note:
The tariff situation remains a major driver.
Successful negotiations would likely boost bullish sentiment across indices.
Lack of progress may trigger renewed bearish momentum.