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US500 trade ideas
Logarithmic channelsThe price has reached a support area at the bottom of the long-term logarithmic channel. If this area will not hold the price I see a possible spike to 5330 level which is 1.618 retracement of March 13 bottom - March 25 top. The price did the same retracement in October 2023. Pay attention that we have 1d positive divergence forming on RSI. We are bottoming, a crash is unlikely right now. The reversal will most likely happen this week.
SPX500 Holding Bullish Structure – Eyes on 6287 BreakoutSPX500
The price maintains bullish momentum as long as it remains above 6225 and 6246.
Currently, the market is approaching the 6287 resistance level. A confirmed 4H candle close above 6287 is required to validate continuation of the bullish trend toward 6325.
However, a rejection from 6287 may trigger a short-term bearish correction, with potential pullbacks toward 6246 and 6225.
A sustained break below 6225 would shift the momentum to the downside, targeting the 6143 support level.
Pivot Level: 6264
Resistance: 6287 – 6325
Support: 6246 – 6225 – 6143
SPX: highly optimisticThe US market celebrated on Friday the US Independence Day, after highly optimistic last two weeks. Almost every day, the S&P 500 was reaching new all time highest levels, finishing Thursday trading session at 6.279. At this moment this is officially treated as a new ATH for the index. The optimism was supported by better than expected US jobs data posted during the previous week. The NFP added 147K new jobs in June, which beated market expectations. The strong US payrolls reinforced market confidence despite concerns over trade tariffs. With inflation remaining sticky and solid jobs growth, markets have increased expectations of the Fed's rate cut in September. Currently, there is relatively low odds that the next rate cut might occur at the Julys FOMC meeting.
Tech companies were again those who led the index to the upside. The leader was for one more time Nvidia, with a weekly surge of 9,7%. AMZN was traded higher by 6,3%, MSFT by 3,9%. TSLA was struggling a bit, ending the week 0,33% higher from the week before.
Weekly news regarding trade tariffs include a US-Vietnam trade deal of 20% tariffs on imports from Vietnam. At the same time, the US exports to Vietnam will be tariffs-free. However, markets are still concerned regarding the final resolution of imposed 90-days delay of implemented tariffs for almost 180 countries around the world, a period which expires in July. On the other hand, Trump's tax mega bill was passed by the US Senate on Tuesday, and is currently awaiting final approval from the House. There were many discussions during the previous period that this tax mega bill might further increase US debt levels, which will be negatively reflected in the economy.
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SPX to 7450?Looking at the long term chart starting from the covid crash we can see 2 impulse of average 2650 pts and two retracement, so from the trump crash to 4800 we could see one last bullish impulse of around 2650 pts to target 7450 in autumn.
Now I expect a retracement to 5965-5970 area before last bullish impule
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 3, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this abbreviated trading week, the S&P 500 Index has primarily shown an upward course, hitting and surpassing our target for the Outer Index Rally of 6235. Currently, the index demonstrates a consistent bullish trend, with the following objective for the Outer Index Rally set at 6420, followed by forthcoming targets of 6620 and 6768. Nevertheless, it is crucial to acknowledge the current price action may cause prices to retrace from their current fluctuation to test the Mean Support at 6200 before resuming their upward movement.
SPX : Next Stop @ 6800 :-)Since we are now expecting a delay in the FED cutting, there will be plenty of liquidity to spice things up.
The 'D' @ yellow had worked once before and since it has been 'used up' , its potency had been somewhat reduced.
But have no fear/worry, there would always be more 'D' ahead. The next one at 6,800
Good luck.
SPX500 Holds Above 6,225 – Bullish Trend Intact for NowSPX500 Update – Bullish Pressure Holds Above Pivot
SPX500 continues to show bullish momentum, as highlighted in our previous analysis. The price remains supported by strong buying volume above the key pivot zone at 6,225.
As long as the price stays above this level, a retest toward 6,225 remains possible before another leg higher.
However, a confirmed break below 6,225 would signal potential bearish momentum and shift the short-term structure.
Key Levels:
• Pivot Line: 6,246
• Resistance: 6,265 / 6,287 / 6,325
• Support: 6,225 / 6,191 / 6,143
S&P 500 Hit Record High Ahead of Holiday BreakS&P 500 Hit Record High Ahead of Holiday Break
Today, financial markets in the United States are closed in observance of Independence Day. Investor sentiment was likely buoyed by the latest rally in the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), which set a new all-time high yesterday, surpassing 6,280.
The bullish momentum has been driven by robust labour market data in the US. According to ForexFactory, analysts had anticipated a rise in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3%, but instead, it unexpectedly declined to 4.1%.
Can the stock market continue to climb?
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart
Analysing the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)on 30 June, we observed the following:
→ An ascending channel was formed (indicated in blue);
→ A developing bullish impulse (marked with an orange line) suggested the price would move towards the upper boundary of the channel – a scenario that materialised with yesterday’s rally (as shown by arrow 1).
However, from a price action perspective, the recent downward move (arrow 2) has now gained significance. It may indicate that sellers are becoming more active around the identified resistance level.
Should the price decline towards the lower orange line, this could negate the current bullish impulse altogether, effectively reflecting a classic bearish engulfing pattern.
Given the above, there is reason to believe that bears are attempting to regain control after the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) surged over 5% in the past 10 days. As such, a potential breakout below the orange line cannot be ruled out, with price action possibly targeting the median of the blue ascending channel.
What happens next?
The market’s trajectory will largely hinge on developments related to tariffs. Trade policy will remain in the spotlight next week, as key deadlines set by the White House approach — events that traders will be closely monitoring.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SP500 rock & roll with Trump.. 4/July/25SPX500 breaking ATH again are we in bullish stage? Or again Donald Trump "Inviting" us come to his WWE stage for his favourite "wrestling" games.. Jumping up and down or up side down.( expanding triangle) ......
S&P 500 ($SPX) Nests Upward in Strong RallySince bottoming out on April 7, 2025, following the tariff war selloff, the S&P 500 (SPX) has sustained a robust rally. The Index is reaching new all-time highs in a clear Elliott Wave impulsive structure. Technical analysis, particularly momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), shows no divergence at the latest peak. This indicates sustained bullish momentum and suggests the rally remains within the third wave of the Elliott Wave sequence. From the April 7 low, wave 1 concluded at 5968.6. A corrective wave 2 followed which ended at 5767.41. The index has since nested higher within wave 3, demonstrating strong upward momentum.
Breaking down the substructure of wave 3, the hourly chart below reveals that wave ((i)) peaked at 6059.4. The subsequent pullback in wave ((ii)) unfolded as a zigzag pattern. Wave (a) declined to 5963.21, and wave (b) rebounded to 6050.83. Wave (c) concluded at 5941.4, completing wave ((ii)) in the higher degree. The index has since resumed its ascent in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) reached 215.08 and a minor pullback in wave (ii) ended at 6177.97.
The SPX is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with potential pullbacks finding support in a 3, 7, or 11 swing against the 5941.4 level, setting the stage for further gains. This analysis underscores the index’s bullish outlook, supported by technical indicators and Elliott Wave structure, as it navigates higher within this impulsive cycle.
USA Economy Long-Term Outlook:The long-term outlook for the U.S. economy , as of mid-2025, is characterized by several key factors and some uncertainty, particularly around tariffs and monetary policy.
GDP Growth: The U.S. economy experienced a contraction in Q1 2025 (down 0.2-0.5% GDP), the first in three years, partly due to a surge in imports and a sharp cutback in consumer spending. Economists anticipate a bounce back in Q2 2025 (forecasted at 3% growth). However, the overall expectation for 2025 is for growth to decelerate significantly (e.g., Vanguard projects 1.5% GDP growth for year-end 2025, EY forecasts 1.5%, Trading Economics 1.7%, J.P. Morgan 2.1%). The second half of 2025 is expected to see a "pronounced demand cliff" due to front-loaded purchases ahead of anticipated trade restrictions.
Inflation: Tariffs are a significant factor impacting inflation. CPI growth is expected to average around 2.9% in 2025 and potentially accelerate to 3.2% in 2026, moderating to around 2.3% by 2029 (Deloitte). Core PCE inflation is expected to climb to the 2.8-3.0% range year-over-year in Q3 2025 - Q3 2026 as tariffs filter through the economy (University of Michigan). The Federal Reserve is closely watching tariff-induced price spikes.
Interest Rates/Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve is likely on hold with interest rates for now, but two more rate cuts are anticipated later in 2025 if the labor market remains stable (Vanguard). Some forecasts suggest the Fed will resume cutting rates in July 2025, reaching a terminal range of 3.25-3.5% by mid-2026 (University of Michigan). However, the uncertainty around tariffs and their impact on inflation could influence the Fed's decisions.
Labor Market: The labor market has been cooling but remains stable. The unemployment rate is expected to increase throughout 2025, potentially reaching 4.3% (Morningstar), 4.7% (Vanguard), or even 4.8% by year-end (EY). Job gains are predicted to decelerate significantly in the second half of 2025 due to tariffs.
Tariffs: Tariffs are a major source of uncertainty. While some recent de-escalation in trade policy with China has led to positive revisions in the outlook, the long-term impact of tariffs remains a concern, with potential to lower GDP growth, raise inflation, and weaken the labor market. The expectation is that tariffs will be at least modestly higher than at the start of 2025.
In essence, the long-term economic forecast for the USA suggests continued growth, but at a more moderate pace than recent years, with ongoing vigilance required for inflation and labor market dynamics, heavily influenced by evolving tariff policies.
Major resistance level for the S%P 500the s and p 500 have been on an uptrend but reems some correction might take place soon
Nonfarm Payroll and some other news 03.07.2025Nonfarm Payrolls surprisingly turned out to be moderate. These are excellent arguments for the Fed not to touch the rate, since labor market is their main mandate along with inflation.
At the same time, stock market is showing steady growth and overheating in some places.
What should the US economy be saved from by lowering the Fed rate?
From Trump's future decisions, or create an influx of liquidity for a good picture so that Trump can further report on GDP growth?
These questions should be asked by engaged Fed chairman.
At 5:00 PM, an interesting ISM services report was released: the growth of new orders against background of falling employment immediately makes us wonder why then such a level of applications to Nonfarm.
The answer is simple, Elon Musk fired a lot of employees during his short career in the White House.
S&P500: Once it breaks the 1W MA50, it doesn't look back.S&P500 has turned overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 75.570, MACD = 96.940, ADX = 23.950) and rightly so as it is extending the rally after crossing above the 1W MA50. The Channel Up since late 2011 shows that when the index crosses above its 1W MA50, it tends to spend a notable time over it (and every contact is a buy opportunity), with the most recent example being the March 2023 - December 2024 period. The shortest such period has been in 2019, which was suddently disrupted by the black Swan event of COVID. We may have gotten out of a similar situation as Trump's tariffs disrupted the uptrend earlier this year with a huge, unexpected correction. There 1W MA200 supported and this brings us to a new 'above the 1W MA50 bullish phase', which even if it is as short as 2019, it can still target 7,000.
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SPX500 at New ATH – Will NFP Fuel the Next Leg Up? SPX500 Outlook: Trade Optimism Fades as Focus Shifts to U.S. Jobs Data
Caution prevails ahead of today’s high-impact U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could be pivotal for the July rate cut narrative. A weaker print may support risk assets and push SPX500 higher, while a strong report could dampen momentum.
Technical Analysis (SPX500):
SPX500 has printed a new all-time high and is now targeting 6287, especially if the index closes above 6246 on the 1H chart.
As long as price holds above 6225 (pivot), the bias remains bullish, with potential upside targets: 6287 & 6325
However, a 4H close below 6213 would suggest a correction toward: 6190 & 6143
Key Levels:
• Resistance: 6287 / 6325
• Support: 6190 / 6143
Stay alert — today's NFP report could trigger major moves across indices and FX.
July Doesn't Disappoint - S&P Nasdaq Dow Russell All RunningS&P All Time Highs
Nasdaq All Time Highs
Dow Jones closing in on All-Time Highs (and outperforming both S&P and Nasdaq recently)
Russell 2000 playing catch up and moving higher
This is melt-up at its finest
Since US/China Trade Agreement and Middle East Ceasefire Agreement, markets have used
these two events as further catalysts to continue the upside runs
Stochastic Cycle with 9 candles suggesting a brief pause or pullback in the near-term, but
a 3-5-10% pullback is still an opportunity to position bullish for these markets
I'm only bearish if the markets show that they care with price action. The US Consumer isn't breaking. Corporate Profits aren't breaking. Guidance remains upbeat. Trump is Pro Growth and trolling Powell on the regular to run this economy and market HOT demanding cuts (history says that's a BUBBLE in the making if it's the case)
Like many, I wish I was more aggressive into this June/July run thus far, but I'm doing just fine with steady gains and income trades to move the needle and still having plenty of dry powder
on the sidelines for pullbacks
Markets close @ 1pm ET Thursday / Closed Friday for 4th of July
Enjoy the nice long weekend - back at it next week - thanks for watching!!!
Acorn's Smart Money S&P SignalJuly 2, 2025 - S&P broke to the upside confirming a bullish S&P signal. If correct, the bullish S&P indicator suggests the S&P will close above 6177.97 on July 17. Let’s see if the market can continue to the upside!
S&P500 bullish ahead of US employment- NFP numbersHouse Republicans moved Trump’s major tax and spending bill closer to a final vote, which could happen before his July 4 deadline. The package includes tax cuts, immigration funding, and the rollback of green energy incentives. Gamblers are raising concerns about a tax increase in the bill that could affect them.
In trade news, the US eased export rules on chip design software to China as part of an ongoing deal. China’s tone has shifted more positively, with a top official saying he’s hopeful about US-China relations and that conflict between the two is “unimaginable.”
At the Fed, Chair Jerome Powell hasn’t said if he’ll step down when his term ends in May, adding uncertainty. Trump, who wants a loyal replacement, has called for his resignation after a federal agency accused Powell of giving misleading testimony about expensive Fed building renovations.
On Wall Street, value investing made a comeback last quarter. Over 60% of active value fund managers beat their benchmarks by buying cheap industrial stocks and avoiding underperforming sectors like utilities and consumer staples.
Conclusion:
US equities are steady but cautious. Uncertainty around Fed leadership and Trump’s economic plans is keeping markets in check, while improving US-China trade relations and a shift toward value stocks are offering support.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6260
Resistance Level 2: 6307
Resistance Level 3: 6355
Support Level 1: 6130
Support Level 2: 6090
Support Level 3: 6055
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPX VS OILHello there.
30 years low cycle is coming to end for OIL and energy.
Every 30 years, market of energy bottom against SPX.
When buy SPX AND NAS ? Each 30 years.
1920->1950->1980->2010->2040
When Sell SPX AND NAS ? Each 25-30 years
19401->970-2000->2025-30->2055-60
Sell SPX WHEN atm ? Well.. follow the last uptrend (blackline), sell when break
Recession always come when Energy > SPX
So.. keep an Eyes on Energy.
$SPX500 Most Hated Rally to Continue?FOREXCOM:SPX500 continues into price discovery suggesting a wave (3) is still underway but nearing a its minimum target of the 1.618 Fibonacci extension target $6310. Overextension of this target will demonstrate an even stronger bullish outlook.
Long term terminal targets remains above $7000 for me.
A short term pull back is a high probability but markets can stay irrational longer than participants can stay liquid.
Safe trading
Biggest What-Ifs in Stocks (or How Investors Live with Regret)You think you’ve got regrets because you didn’t buy Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA at $50 or sold Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA at $420? Join the club.
The stock market’s history is littered with “almost” trades, missed deals, and facepalm-worthy decisions that turned out to be trillion-dollar pivots.
This is the hall of fame for what didn’t happen — and what those stories teach us about how markets (and human nature) actually work. Call it a free masterclass in greed, fear, FOMO, and the priceless value of just sitting tight sometimes.
Take it easy today, grab your cold brew and read up on the biggest what-ifs in stock market history.
🍏 Ronald Wayne: The Patron Saint of “Oops”
Our first inductee needs no introduction. But let’s do it anyway. Ronald Wayne, the third Apple NASDAQ:AAPL co-founder, sold his 10% stake back in 1976 for the princely sum of $800. He wanted to avoid any debts if things went south. Sensible, right?
That $800 stake today would be worth more than $300 billion. That’s more than the GDP of Finland — and about 1.2 million new iPhones every single day for pretty much the rest of his life. Wayne has since said he doesn’t regret it. Which is probably the biggest lie he’s ever told.
🍿 Blockbuster’s Netflix “Pass”
In 2000, Netflix NASDAQ:NFLX was a DVD-by-mail startup with spotty profits. Reed Hastings, Netflix’s founder, knocked on Blockbuster’s door and offered to sell the whole thing for $50 million — about the price of a Hollywood production.
Blockbuster’s execs reportedly laughed him out of the room. “People will always want to drive to a store to rent a VHS,” they said, basically. Fast forward: Netflix is worth around $560 billion, and Blockbuster is down to one store that’s mostly a selfie museum for millennials who miss rewinding tapes.
💻 Microsoft’s Lifeline That Saved Apple
In 1997, Apple NASDAQ:AAPL was broke. Steve Jobs had returned but was days away from the company flat-lining for good. Enter Bill Gates.
Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT wrote Apple a $150 million check, partly to keep antitrust regulators off its back. Jobs even appeared on stage with Gates beaming in on a giant screen like Big Brother — a moment that made every Apple fan cringe.
But that deal saved Apple’s hide. The iMac was born. The iPod followed. Then the iPhone. That $150 million is now a rounding error on Apple’s $3 trillion valuation. Sometimes your greatest rival is also your best frenemy.
🔍 Google: The $750K “Meh”
Before “Google it” became a verb, Larry Page and Sergey Brin tried to sell their little search engine to Excite — the Yahoo-lite portal that dominated the ‘90s web. The price? $750,000.
Excite’s CEO said search “wasn’t that important” — one of the worst calls in tech history. Today, Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL is worth over $2.1 trillion and always flashing bright on the Stock Heatmap , and Excite is a footnote in a forgotten Web 1.0 graveyard.
The lesson? Never dismiss a side project just because it doesn’t fit the spreadsheet.
💸 Masayoshi Son’s $200 Billion Slip
SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son is known for his giant, risky bets . And in 2017, he made a pretty good one: his Vision Fund scooped up a 5% chunk of Nvidia stock worth about $4 billion. He called GPUs the backbone of the AI revolution. He was right.
But by 2019, SoftBank was under pressure to tidy up its books. So Son sold the whole position for a tidy short-term profit. That stake today would be worth nearly $200 billion, given Nvidia’s rocket-fuel AI rally .
“We can cry together,” CEO Jensen Huang told Masa Son at an AI Summit in Tokyo last year. Early doesn’t always mean patient. And being “kind of right” can be the most painful lesson of all.
📊 Berkshire Hathaway: A Textile Mill’s Rebirth
Think of Berkshire Hathaway NYSE:BRK.A now — a $1 trillion behemoth. Insurance, utilities, railroads, huge piles of Apple shares . But back when Warren Buffett bought it, Berkshire was a dying textile business in New England.
Buffett only bought control because he was annoyed at the CEO’s lowball tender offer. It turned into his permanent holding company. The textile side eventually went extinct — but the insurance side became the cash-printing machine Buffett used to buy everything else.
Sometimes your best trade starts with pure pettiness.
🚀 Tesla: The Short Sellers’ Pain Cave
Here’s a more recent tale. Tesla was not long ago the most shorted stock on Earth. Everyone from hedge funds to your uncle at Thanksgiving was betting on Elon’s dream to fail.
Every now and then, the short-sellers get slapped with billions of dollars in losses, because the stock shoots up out of nowhere. The most recent example? November 12, when those naysayers nursed $7 billion in wiped out cash . Bears have been torched so many times, they might as well switch sides and sell Tesla hoodies instead.
🌌 Yahoo’s Double Miss: Google and Facebook
If you think blowing one chance is bad, try blowing two. Yahoo turned down the chance to buy Google for less than a million bucks. Then years later, they offered $1 billion for Facebook (now META NASDAQ:META ) — but bungled the negotiations and tried to lower the price. Zuck said “nope.”
But back to Google, because the story didn’t end there. In 2002, Yahoo said it wanted to buy Google for $3 billion. Brin and Page said $5 billion and Yahoo said no. Then Microsoft was ready to pay $40 billion to acquire Yahoo in 2008. But Yahoo said no.
Today, Google, Microsoft, and Meta are trillion-dollar titans. Yahoo? Sold itself for $4.5 billion, mostly for its patents, in 2016 to Verizon. Talk about slipping on the same banana peel more than once.
🧃 Apple: The Splits that Keep Giving
Want a reason to love boring old “buy and hold”? Apple NASDAQ:AAPL has split its stock five times since its 1980 IPO. If you’d bought 100 shares back then, you’d now have over 56,000 shares, plus mountains of dividends.
Next time you want to swing trade every squiggle, remember: sometimes the slowest route is the sweetest.
📝 Regret: The Only Universal Asset Class
Every trader has a “coulda, shoulda, woulda.” It’s the cost of doing business in a market that only makes sense in hindsight. Even the pros — billionaires, boards, hedge funds — have stories that make yours look tame.
Ronald Wayne reminds you that selling too soon can cost you your own island. Masayoshi Son proves being right but impatient is still being wrong. Yahoo shows that “almost” is worth exactly zero on a balance sheet.
What these stories prove is that the market’s biggest edge isn’t necessarily timing, genius, or inside scoops — it’s discipline, resilience, and sometimes a stubborn refusal to touch the sell button.
🤗 Bonus Story: Ballmer Regrets Nothing
But not every story has to be a regret story. Just look at Steve Ballmer, Microsoft ‘s former CEO. Since the early 2000s, he’s been holding his 4% stake in the software maker and that’s now worth more than $130 billion. No regrets found.
👉 What’s Your “One That Got Away”?
Now your turn : What’s your personal what-if story? Which ticker haunts you in your sleep? Drop your best missed trade or worst sell in the comments — we promise to laugh with you, not at you. Probably. Stay sharp. Stay patient!
