SPX500 Range-Bound Between 6223–6246 |Breakout Will Define TrendSPX500 – Technical & Fundamental Outlook
The SPX500 is currently trading within a narrow consolidation zone between 6223 and 6246.
A 1H or 4H candle close below 6223 would confirm a bearish breakout, with downside targets at 6191 and 6143.
Conversely, a 1H close above 6246 would signal bullish continuation, potentially driving the price toward the next resistance at 6287, followed by 6305.
Support: 6223 / 6191 / 6143
Resistance: 6287 / 6305
Fundamental Note:
The tariff situation remains a major driver.
Successful negotiations would likely boost bullish sentiment across indices.
Lack of progress may trigger renewed bearish momentum.
US500AUD trade ideas
S&P to go down a bit....good time to hop on UVIX!Saw this from a mile away. We are now at the cross hair between high tariffs and the tail-end of a week long rally that was mostly based on hot air. What's next? Gravity will prevail.
The VIX has been at super low levels historically. UVIX is a nice 2X! Jumped like 4% already today and there's way more upside. Best of luck and always do your own due diligence.
Decade-Long Uptrend Holds Strong – SPX Hits Fresh HighsS&P 500 Just Hit a New All-Time High (ATH) 🚀
The index has been in a strong uptrend for over a decade, consistently printing higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL).
Every major resistance level has flipped into support, classic bull market structure.
Even during corrections, the 33 EMA and 100 EMA have acted like dynamic support zones.
Now that SPX has cleared its previous ATH, the structure remains intact, unless a strong breakdown occurs, momentum is still with the bulls.
S&P's "hugely overbought" towards 6375!1). Position Volume dropping! 2). Big institutions (Banks & Insurance) have backed off on higher Risk positions! 3). Huge resistance at .728 fib & trend! 4). Trump tariff talk is likely adding to a fall as well! 5). We're looking for a "SELL" trade @ 6375, since buying is too risky at the moment...Good Luck!
US500 Swing short tradeUS500 index is on the verge of major drop. I expect the price to sink in the coming weeks, that's why this will be a swing trade. I expect to reach my main target of $6000 around mid/end of August, with a second short entry once we will start to drop and retrace till my key level.
SPX: Banks beat, stocks peakThe US equity markets remained relatively resilient this week, despite ongoing concerns about trade policy developments. After last week’s slight retreat from its all-time high, the S&P 500 resumed its upward momentum early in the week, continuing to hover near record levels. The index reached a new highest level of 6,315 on Friday before pulling back slightly, closing the week at 6.296.
Bank earrings were in focus of investors during the previous week. Overall, Q2 reports from major U.S. banks showed resilience — better-than-expected earnings, strong interest income, and robust capital actions. So far, the finance sector has seen Q2 earnings rise around 13% y/y and 3,4% revenue growth. In addition, a stress test posted by Fed underpin confidence as all major banks, including JPMorgan and Citi showing resilience also under potential stress conditions. However, both bankers and investors held a cautious tone on macro/public policy risk.
Investors' confidence was additionally boosted by better than expected US macro data posted during the previous week. The inflation rate in June was 0,3% for the month and 2,7% on a yearly basis. At the same time, retail sales beat market expectations with an increase of 0,6% in June. As per analysts reports, currently 27 stocks included in the S&P 500 are trading at the all time highest levels. The ADM company, which is well known for producing Coca Cola, had a drop in the value of shares of 2% after the US President requested from the company to use real cane sugar in their popular drink.
From July 23st a composition of companies included in the S&P 500 index will be changed. A crypto company Block will be included, while the company Hess will be excluded from the index. Shares of the Blok surged by 10% on Friday, after the release of the news.
SPX 500 TO CONTINUE HIGHER Week of July 20, 2025 SPX500 will continue going higher as we don't have any reversal setup yet on the higher time frames, although there is a lot of hesitation on the chart as the past week's new high was not supported. The trend on 4 hours to weekly is still up and has no break of major moving averages yet. I am looking forward to either a capitulation new high candle or a bullish new high candle that breakout of the weekly consolidation zone as we enter another trading week. I hope my thought process and analysis is helpful for making your own trading or investment decisions.
Thank you for listening and wish everyone a great trading week.
Cheers
15_MinThis is a 15-minute timeframe chart, where each candlestick represents 15 minutes of trading activity. It is primarily used by intraday traders and scalpers to identify short-term trends, breakout zones, and momentum plays.
This chart of the S&P 500 (SPX) reflects intraday movements with real-time tracking of support/resistance zones, volume spikes, and short-term patterns.
Weekly Review: The S&P and NASDAQ once again hit all time highs during the week starting Monday 14 July. Which is a sign of confidence despite the ongoing external threats (tariffs / Middle East). I've noticed the current earnings season wasn't approached with as much trepidation as recent earnings seasons have been. Of course, that could come crashing down as companies continue to report over the next couple of weeks.
Once again, the currencies didn't quite react in accordance with the overall 'positive risk environment'. As each of the 'risk off currencies' offers their own separate challenges:
Ever since the recent NFP data, the USD had been strong, the FED continues to maintain a view for a 'slow pace of rate cuts' and US data backs up that view. Particularly this week's retail sales data, even CPI, although relatively benign, wasn't soft enough to warrant a 'FED pivot' towards a more dovish stance. The USD spent most of the week on the front foot, although the 'higher for longer' narrative was put to the test when the president once again offered his views on Mr Powell. Also FED board member WALLER chipped in with some dovish comments. Currently, it's up in the air as to how many more rate cut the FED will implement before year end (if any). The narrative at the July FOMC meeting could go a long way to determine the dollar's direction for the rest of the summer. But ultimately, it'll be the data that decides.
Recently, I've been encouraged by the re-emergence of JPY weakness. This past week, I put any periods of JPY strength down to profit taking before this weekends election. I need to do some reading regarding the implications of the result. But I'm 'hopeful' that over the coming weeks and months the 'old fashioned, JPY short 'risk on trade', will be prevalent.
The CHF continues to have a mind of it's own. It could be tracking EUR strength, it could be the article I read about gold, it could be SNB intervention, It could be random, or something I'm not aware of. Ultimately, until I'm comfortable the CHF is back in correlation with the risk environment, my preference is to short the JPY instead.
In other news, disappointing AUD data took the shine off the hawkish RBA. But I still view the AUD as a good 'risk on' long.
I'll begin the new week with an open mind. My preference remains for 'risk on' trades. But it's a case of keeping up to date with all of the narratives, if momentum aligns with logic and a narrative. And you feel comfortable with a stop loss and profit target, place the trade. But, be aware that the narrative the market is focused on can change from day to day.
On a personal note, it was a week of two trades. A post US CPI 'risk on' AUD JPY long. The trade stopped out. And as discussed during the week, it was one of those situations where if I would have been at the charts and hour later, I would have traded a different pair. That's life.
The second trade was AUD USD long. Post WALLER'S dovish comments, I felt the USD short momentum could continue. On my account the trade hit profit by the skin of its teeth before reversing. Again, that's life. Sometimes you get good luck, sometimes you get bad luck. I feel it's important to acknowledge good luck, as we often only focus on the bad luck we have.
The USD is finely poised and I'm intrigued to see where the data and rate cut narrative takes it over the coming weeks.
Results:
Trade 1: AUD JPY -1
Trade 2: AUD USD +1.2
Total = +0.2%
Miss This Watchlist, Miss Next Week’s OpportunitiesHey friends,it’s Skeptic 🩵 hope you’re having a great weekend!I know it’s the weekend, so a lot of you are probably chilling away from the charts, but for some, trading’s such an addiction that even weekends can’t keep you away. In this video, I’m gonna break down my weekly watchlist for you. Knowing it will help you miss fewer good opportunities, avoid FOMO, and have a plan ready for different scenarios and events.
Don’t forget money management , and stay clear of FOMO. & if it helped smash that boost bottom and follow for more !
S&P500 Bullish breakout supported at 6207Trump’s $3.4 Trillion Tax Plan
Favors wealthy investors: Tax burden shifts based on how you earn, not how much.
Winners: Business owners, investors, high-income earners.
Losers: Immigrants, elite universities.
Trade Tensions
EU Tariffs: Brussels targets $72B in US goods (e.g., Boeing, cars, bourbon) in response to Trump’s tariff threats.
Impact: Risk to transatlantic trade; US open to talks.
US-China Tech Relations
Nvidia: Resumes H20 AI chip sales to China after US approval—boosted chip stocks.
Trump: To announce $70B in AI & energy investments today in Pennsylvania.
Trend: Signs of easing tensions between US and China.
Earnings Focus: Big US Banks
Q2 results (JPM, Citi, WFC, BNY Mellon, BlackRock) will highlight:
Net interest income: How rate levels affect profits
Loan growth & credit quality: Signs of lending strength or weakness
Capital markets activity: Trading & investment banking trends
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6335
Resistance Level 2: 6380
Resistance Level 3: 6420
Support Level 1: 6207
Support Level 2: 6160
Support Level 3: 6115
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
S&P 500: Defying Tariff Headwinds, Breaking RecordsThe S&P 500 has staged a remarkable rally in 2025, shattering all-time highs and capturing global attention. This surge has unfolded despite the negative economic overhang of renewed tariff threats and ongoing trade tensions, raising critical questions for investors: How did the market overcome such headwinds, and what lies ahead for both the short and long term?
The Rally Against the Odds
Tariff Turbulence: Earlier this year, President Trump announced sweeping new tariffs, sparking fears of supply chain disruptions and higher costs for American companies. Historically, such moves have triggered volatility and corrections.
Market Resilience: Despite these concerns, the S&P 500 not only recovered losses from the spring but surged to new record highs, with the index climbing over 23% since April’s lows. Major tech companies, especially those leading in AI and innovation, have been at the forefront of this advance.
Investor Sentiment: The rally has been fueled by optimism around potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, robust corporate earnings, and expectations of long-term economic growth—even as the immediate impact of tariffs remains uncertain.
Short-Term Correction: A Healthy Pause?
While the long-term outlook remains bullish, several indicators suggest the market may be due for a short-term correction:
Narrow Market Breadth: The current rally has been driven by a handful of mega-cap stocks, leaving the median S&P 500 stock well below its own 52-week high. Historically, such narrow leadership often precedes periods of consolidation or pullbacks.
Valuation Concerns: Stock valuations are at elevated levels, and some analysts warn that earnings growth could slow as companies adapt to higher input costs and shifting trade policies.
Correction Forecasts: Some strategists predict the S&P 500 could correct to around 5,250 by the third quarter of 2025, citing factors like slowing consumer spending and persistent policy uncertainty.
Long-Term Outlook: Higher Highs Ahead
Despite the potential for near-term volatility, the long-term trajectory for the S&P 500 remains positive:
Fed Policy Tailwinds: Anticipated rate cuts and lower bond yields are expected to provide further support for equities, encouraging risk-taking and higher valuations.
Corporate Adaptation: Companies are actively offsetting tariff impacts through cost savings, supply chain adjustments, and strategic pricing.
Growth Sectors: Innovation in technology, productivity gains, and deregulation are setting the stage for sustained profit growth, especially in sectors like AI, robotics, and defense.
Key Takeaways for Investors
Stay Disciplined: While a short-term correction is possible, history shows that markets often rebound strongly after periods of volatility.
Diversify Exposure: With market gains concentrated in a few names, diversification and active stock selection are more important than ever.
Focus on Fundamentals: Long-term investors should look beyond headlines and focus on companies with resilient earnings and adaptive business models.
The S&P 500’s ability to break records in the face of tariff headwinds is a testament to the underlying strength and adaptability of the U.S. economy. While short-term bumps are likely, the path ahead still points toward new highs for those with patience and perspective.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
#spx500 #stockmarket #analysis #economy #us #nasdaq #fed #bonds #rates #trading
S&P500 Slips Ahead of CPI & Earnings SeasonEquities began the week under pressure, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.5%, slipping below the 6,230-resistance area. Although the Fed minutes released last week indicate that most members are open to cutting rates this year, inflation data and second-quarter earnings could change that trajectory.
Upcoming Events to Watch:
• CPI Release (Tuesday 14:30 SAST): A cooler-than-expected print would support a breakout in risk assets. A hot reading could shift expectations toward policy tightening, weighing on equities.
• Q2 Earnings Season: Major banks including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup will report this week. Strong earnings may cushion the market, while any weakness could exacerbate volatility.
S&P500 Technical View:
• Immediate Resistance: 6,230
• Potential Upside: A cooler CPI could see the index rally toward 6,290.
• Support Levels: Should inflation surprise to the upside, the index may slide to 6,190, or even 6,150 in extended selling.
$SPXSP:SPX Update:
Rumors of Powell possibly resigning as Fed Chair have created uncertainty among buyers.
But if inflation stays low even with tariffs we might see longer holds.
If Powell does step down, markets could actually rally on hopes of upcoming rate cuts.
📉📈
Now we wait for the inflation report…
SPX500USD | Retesting All-Time HighsThe index has extended its bullish rally, printing a new local high at 6,286.5 before showing signs of slight hesitation with consecutive small-bodied candles.
Support at: 6,134.5 / 6,026.0 / 5,926.2 🔽
Resistance at: 6,286.5 🔼
🔎 Bias:
🔼 Bullish: Sustains above 6,134.5 and breaks 6,286.5 for new highs.
🔽 Bearish: Break below 6,134.5 could trigger a retracement toward 6,026.0.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
US500 Is Bullish! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for US500.
Time Frame: 3h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 6,252.40.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 6,297.19 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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