$SPXSP:SPX Update:
Rumors of Powell possibly resigning as Fed Chair have created uncertainty among buyers.
But if inflation stays low even with tariffs we might see longer holds.
If Powell does step down, markets could actually rally on hopes of upcoming rate cuts.
📉📈
Now we wait for the inflation report…
USA500 trade ideas
SPX500USD | Retesting All-Time HighsThe index has extended its bullish rally, printing a new local high at 6,286.5 before showing signs of slight hesitation with consecutive small-bodied candles.
Support at: 6,134.5 / 6,026.0 / 5,926.2 🔽
Resistance at: 6,286.5 🔼
🔎 Bias:
🔼 Bullish: Sustains above 6,134.5 and breaks 6,286.5 for new highs.
🔽 Bearish: Break below 6,134.5 could trigger a retracement toward 6,026.0.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
Is SP500 / US M2 Money Supply telling us a story?Historically this ratio has inflected from key levels. Last week the upper boundary of what 8 would call a normal range has acted as support. If history rhymes to dot com bubble, this AI bubble can bounce from these levels and see an increase until Q4 2026, then a sharp fall will follow. To the lower boundary of that normal range.
US500 Is Bullish! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for US500.
Time Frame: 3h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 6,252.40.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 6,297.19 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
SPX500 in a Powerful Wave 3 Expansion – New Highs on the HorizonMarket Analysis – SPX500 (S&P 500 Index CFD)
The SPX500 is currently exhibiting a strong bullish structure, consistent with the characteristics of an Elliott Wave 3 extension. This wave phase is typically the most powerful and impulsive part of a bullish cycle, often driven by increasing market confidence, strong macroeconomic fundamentals, and institutional accumulation.
After completing a textbook corrective Wave 2, the index has broken key resistance levels with strong momentum, confirming the beginning of Wave 3. What sets this phase apart is its capacity to generate accelerated gains, often surpassing expectations and historical highs.
Key signs supporting the Wave 3 hypothesis:
High volume breakout from consolidation zones.
Higher highs and higher lows structure on multiple timeframes.
Confirmation from supporting indicators such as RSI holding above 50 and MACD showing strong upward momentum.
What’s next?
As long as market structure remains intact and no significant bearish divergence appears, we can expect multiple new all-time highs to be formed during this wave. Traders should look for retracement entries using Fibonacci levels (e.g., 38.2% or 50% pullbacks) to ride the trend while managing risk carefully.
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains strong. Strategic buying during minor corrections could offer favorable risk-reward setups throughout the progression of this wave.
IS THE STOCK MARKET HEADING INTO DOT COM BUBBLE 2.0?In this video we look at the 3 month chart of SP:SPX using the traders dynamic index & Fibonacci retracement levels to put together a bullish case for the overall stock market to go on a monster rally over the next 7 years
We also theorize about how over the next 2 years the SP:SPX can indeed hit 7200+ by Q3 2026 and have pullbacks to 5800-6100, but how that could just be the "consolidation move in price" of the overall stock market before we get what could end up being the largest stock market rally we have ever seen in the 21st century
ASCENDING WEDGE ON WATCH - ELLIOTT WAVE 3 NEARLY COMPLETEThe WAVE 3 extension can go further but it seems likely that coinciding with earnings this month we will have the potential for the start of WAVE 4 retracement.
The possible resignation of Jerome Powell could further intensify the charts.
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The system is rooted in Mean Reversion Theory:
If an asset's price deviates significantly from its historical average, it tends to “revert” back to that average over time. Traders can use this behavior to spot potential buying or selling opportunities:
Overbought Conditions: If the price moves too far above the mean, it may signal a pullback—traders might sell or short.
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SPX Breakdown or Another Push Higher?Hi y'all thanks for tuning in! Here are a few written notes to sum up the video.
Indecision at New Highs
After breaking out to new all-time highs, SPX printed a doji on the weekly chart, signaling indecision. This hesitation could mark the start of digestion.
Still Structurally Bullish, but Extended
The weekly chart shows SPX is still holding trend structure, but price is notably extended from the 10EMA. Historically, when price moves too far from key short-term EMAs, it tends to reset either via time (sideways chop) or price (pullback).
Daily Chart Shows a Shelf Forming
On the daily chart, price has been consolidating just under the prior high with small-bodied candles. This is forming a “shelf” around the 6,260–6,280 zone. It’s acting like a pause, not a breakdown. Holding above this zone keeps the trend intact.
Pullback Risk Increases Below 6,232
If price loses 6,232 (last week's breakout area and short-term shelf), it increases the likelihood of a pullback toward the 6160 or even deeper toward the 5970. That lower zone also marks the bottom of the prior consolidation box from earlier this year.
Seasonality Reminder
Historically, July is strong in the first half, with weakness (if it shows up) arriving mid-to-late month. So far, price has tracked that seasonal strength. Any weakness from here would align with that typical timing.
S&P 500 - Medium Timeframe AnalysisAs illustrated, we appear to be in the final wave to the upside. At this stage, I’m treating Wave 5 as a standard impulse. However, given that Wave 4 retraced deeply, nearly to the termination point of Wave 1, there remains a modest possibility that this higher-degree Wave 5 in gray, which began in 2020, could ultimately unfold as an ending diagonal. That said, this scenario remains highly unlikely, as the internal structure of the preceding waves does not exhibit the characteristics of corrective price action.
More upside after correction for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD went a little more up (diagonal) just as I've said in my outlook.
Next week we could see the start of a bigger correction down (grey wave 4) and a break of the dotted trendline. Or the diagonal is a leading diagonal wave 1 and grey wave 3 extends more.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait to see if price breaks the dotted trend line (for shorts) or not (for longs).
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
SPX GEO+ Cycle Update: "SPX: April Low Called, Target 8000+"SPX GEO+ Cycle Update: April Low Called Precisely (Next Target: 8000)
On January 5th, 2025, when SPX was trading at 5942, I published an analysis in Italian using my GEO+ Cycle methodology that made two specific projections:
📉 A low around 5000 in April 2025
📈 Then an advance targeting 8000 by 2026
Update: April delivered exactly as projected.
The geometric patterns suggested April would mark a significant turning point, and the market found strong support right in the anticipated zone and timeframe.
About GEO+ Cycles:
After 15 years studying market geometry, I've developed a framework that identifies multi-decade structural patterns. These aren't traditional technical indicators—they're mathematical relationships that help project major turning points with remarkable precision.
Current Phase:
We're now in the advancing phase of this cycle. Based on geometric projections, the target window for 8000 remains January 2026.
Important Context:
This represents cycle analysis for educational purposes, not trading advice. The methodology focuses on identifying major structural turning points rather than short-term movements.
What's Next:
I'll continue tracking this cycle's development and provide updates as we approach key geometric levels.
For those interested in learning more about geometric market analysis, feel free to follow for updates on this and other cycle progressions.
The mathematics of market geometry continue to unfold...
Note: Originally published in Italian, now sharing these insights with the global TradingView community.
Macroeconomic analysis of the American marketHello investor friends,
today I bring an update on the macro economic state of the American economy which generally moves markets around the world.
From the graph we can see the S&P 500 index on which 4 lines have been superimposed which coincide with:
- FED interest rate
- FED balance sheet
- US inflation rate
- US unemployment rate
The vertical line on the graph coincides with the date of the last update I made 5 months ago.
The central bank decides interest rates and the injection of money with the aim of keeping inflation low and avoiding too much unemployment.
At the moment we have:
- Unemployment rate at 4% (remained unchanged)
- Inflation at 2.4% (decreased compared to 5 months ago)
- The balance / release of printed money (continues to fall)
- The interest rate remained unchanged (current 4.33%)
Compared to 5 months ago the situation seems to have improved and is quite stable. The FED has decided to keep rates unchanged due to political issues as it would like to see clearly before making cuts.
In general we can say that the situation seems quite good as, unemployment is low, inflation is at optimal levels, we see that the budget/money injection is decreasing and therefore leads to maintaining regular inflation and finally the interest rates being stable maintain a low level of unemployment.
Given these factors we see that since the last update 5 months ago (i.e. in February), in the following weeks there was a collapse due to Trump's policies but that it was certainly an excellent opportunity to increase positions given that the macroeconomic situation was positive as it currently is.
From today we could certainly expect further declines due to other monetary policies or other news, but as long as the macro situation is positive we have no reason to worry.
👍 Like if you want more macro updates in the future
🙋♂️ Follow me so you don't miss my future analyses
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your research before making investment decisions.
SP:SPX FRED:SP500 VANTAGE:SP500 AMEX:SPY VANTAGE:DJ30 AMEX:DIA CME_MINI:NQ1! FX:NAS100 NASDAQ:QQQ FX:EUSTX50 FOREXCOM:GER40 FX:AUS200
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 11, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this trading week, the S&P 500 Index has shown a predominantly downward/upward course of action and created a new Key Resistance at 6280. Currently, the index exhibits a bullish bias, with the Outer Index Rally objective set at 6420. However, it is crucial to note that the current price action may cause prices to see in a new light from their current fluctuation to push toward the Mean Support at 6200 before resuming their upward movement.
SP500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 30 MINUTE TIME FRAME 📊 Technical Analysis – SP500 CFD (30-Minute Chart)
✅ 1. Overall Market Trend:
The market is currently in a range-bound structure after a sharp upward move toward the 6,296 level.
Price entered a clear supply zone and reversed sharply.
Multiple BOS (Break of Structure) and CHoCH (Change of Character) events indicate clear shifts in price behavior.
📌 2. Key Structure Zones:
🟩 Demand Zones:
6,240–6,250: First active demand zone — could trigger bullish reactions.
6,180–6,200: Deeper liquidity zone within the Discount area, ideal for long setups if tested.
Price is approaching equilibrium and preparing for a potential reaction.
🟥 Supply Zones:
6,290–6,300: This premium zone caused the recent rejection and is currently acting as short-term resistance.
📈 3. Price Action & Candles:
Price created a rising wedge near the highs, which broke down.
Strong bearish candles followed, breaking key short-term structure levels.
Price is now heading into the equilibrium zone and testing demand.
📌 4. Possible Scenarios:
🔻 If Price Falls:
Watch for a reaction at the 6,240–6,250 demand zone.
If this area breaks, the next downside target is 6,180–6,200 — a high-probability liquidity zone.
🔺 If Price Rebounds:
A bullish reaction from the current zone could send price back toward 6,270+.
A confirmed break of 6,296 would open the door to higher highs.
🧠 Summary Table:
Condition Analysis
Current Status In corrective phase after bullish impulse
Short-Term Trend Bearish structure active (BOS, CHoCH present)
Key Support 6,245 → 6,180
Key Resistance 6,290–6,300
Buy Opportunity Bullish confirmation at demand zones
Sell Opportunity Weak reactions or breakdowns below BOS
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a buy/sell signal.
Always trade based on your personal strategy and risk management plan.
VANTAGE:SP500
S&P 500 - Micro Count Ew AnalysisThis is my lower timeframe analysis. Price has now reached the ideal target area for Wave 3, suggesting that a corrective phase may soon follow. This potential retracement could also align with broader market reactions to a possible announcement from Trump regarding new tariffs on Russia this coming Monday.
P.S. The macro count and higher timeframe outlook will be shared later.
The S&P 500 Is Hitting New Highs, But Its Charts Look MixedThe S&P 500 SP:SPX has made a series of new all-time closing and intra-day highs in recent days as Wall Street staged a remarkable comeback from the April lows that followed President Donald Trump's announcement of "Liberation Day" tariffs. Does fundamental and technical analysis say the key index could go higher from here ... or pull back?
Let's check it out:
The S&P 500's Fundamental Analysis
The SPX fell more than 21% intraday in less than seven weeks between its Feb. 19 peak and its April 7 low as Trump rolled out his plan for big tariffs on foreign imports.
Many investors feared that high import duties -- coupled with foreign retaliatory tariffs on American exports -- would boost U.S. inflation and unemployment at the same time, creating "stagflation."
But about a week after Trump rolled out the "Liberation Day" tariffs on April 2, the president paused much of the plan for 90 days to allow for trade talks with other countries.
Risk-on assets quickly started to come back as Wall Street began to think deals with trading partners might blossom. So far, only the United Kingdom, China and Vietnam have played ball, but that's been good enough for many investors.
Meanwhile, consumer-level U.S. inflation has largely been beaten back (at least for now), and Trump has had other economic victories as well.
For example, his "Big, Beautiful Bill" of tax cuts and spending changes recently passed into law, offering what many see as multiple pro-growth provisions.
True, the Congressional Budget Office warned that the Big, Beautiful Bill could add some $3.3 trillion to the U.S. government's already huge deficits over the next decade. However, the agency's projections didn't include $2.8 trillion of expected revenues over the next 10 years from Trump's tariffs.
The CBO also chose to model almost no economic growth over the next decade, which probably isn't very realistic.
Of course, it's still unclear whether Wall Street has already priced in all of the "Big, Beautiful Bill" potential positives, or whether the measure's tax cuts and deregulation will have their desired economic effects.
Similarly, we don't know whether there are any more bilateral trade deals around the corner, or whether the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates -- which could boost stocks by making bond and money-market yields less attractive.
The S&P 500's Technical Analysis
Now let's look at the SPX's chart going back some four months and running through midday Tuesday:
Readers will see that the S&P 500 has been in a clear uptrend for the past three months, as denoted by the orange- and purple-shaded areas above.
The index has colored neatly within the lines, finding support at the lower trendline in mid-June. Additionally, support came at the S&P 500's 21-day Exponential Moving average, or "EMA, marked with a green line above.
More recently, the S&P 500 also enjoyed the benefits of what we call a "golden cross." That's when the index's 50-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," marked with a blue line) crosses above a rising 200-day SMA (marked with a red line). That's historically a bullish technical signal for the index.
The S&P 500 also experienced "Day One" bullish reversals on May 27 and June 23. Those "Day Ones" were then confirmed on June 3 and June 26, respectively.
A "Day One" reversal occurs when an index reversed direction up or down on increased trading volume, followed by a "Confirmation Day" that moves the market in the same direction as the reversal on increased volume as well. That combination typically signifies changes in an index's short-term trend.
Now, astute readers might notice that the S&P 500's June 23 "Day One" reversal occurred on decreased day-over-day trading volume.
However, that's misleading because the market day just prior to June 23 was a "triple-witching" day, which technical analysts therefore discard.
Readers should also understand that there must be at least a one-day pause between a "Day One" reversal and a "Confirmation Day." Otherwise, technical analysts will consider both days to represent one move, and we wouldn't have a volume-based technical confirmation.
Next, let's look at the SPX's chart going back to January and running through midday Tuesday:
This chart shows that the S&P 500 is in danger of putting in what's called a "Double Top" pattern of bearish reversal, denoted with the red boxes above marked "Top 1" and "Top 2." With all that's going on politically and geopolitically, that's a concern.
On top of that, Q2 earnings season begins next week, and analysts' consensus is for rather paltry 5% year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 component companies as a whole.
In addition, the S&P 500 has a conflicting Relative Strength Index ("RSI") and Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or "MACD").
The index's RSI, marked with gray lines at the above chart's top, is practically at technically overbought levels.
But at the same time, the daily MACD (marked with black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart's bottom) is showing signs of weakness.
The histogram of S&P 500's 9-day EMA (the blue bars) is now below the zero-bound, which is historically a short-term bearish technical signal.
On top of that, the 12-day EMA (the black line) is threatening to cross under the 26-day EMA (the gold line). This hasn't happened yet, but would be a short-term bearish signal if it did.
Add it all up and the S&P 500 is showing a mixed technical picture right now despite trading at or close to all-time record highs.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in S&P 500-related ETFs or mutual funds at the time of writing this column.)
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
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S&P 500 (CASH500) Short - Head and shoulders H1Potential short on S&P 500.
Risk/reward = 3.4
Entry = 6264.9
Stop loss = 6280.3
TP level 1 = 6221.7 (50%)
TP level 2 = 6200.5 (50%)
Need current candle to close back in range at 10.00 for all variables to be met.
Volume exception applied since current candle is the open of European markets.
Gap down is likely a bear trap - SPYSo the gap down looked bearish but the technicals are not confirming it. One more high is likely today or Monday. Gold is at resistance here. OIl found support and looks like a long. BTC rallied and can go higher but it's putting in daily bearish divergences. Natural Gas looks like it will bounce.