Oil will soon be $200Technical and Fundamental Analysis of Crude Oil (WTI)
Technical Analysis:
1. Key Support and Resistance Levels:
The $80 level acts as a strong resistance, where the price has reversed in the past.
Major support levels are at $66 and $68.
2. Overall Trend:
The price has bounced from $66 and is currently trading around $70.94.
If the price breaks above the $72 resistance, it could move towards $74-$76.
A break below $68 may push the price down to $66 and potentially $64.
3. Price Action:
A recent strong bullish move indicates buying interest in this zone.
The price is attempting to stabilize above $70.
Fundamental Analysis:
1. Key Influencing Factors:
OPEC+ Decisions: Any production cuts could support oil prices.
U.S. Economic Data: Inflation, interest rates, and Federal Reserve policies impact oil demand.
Geopolitical Tensions: Conflicts in the Middle East or Russia can drive prices higher.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventory: Declining inventories signal higher demand, boosting prices.
2. Overall Outlook:
If global demand continues to rise and OPEC+ cuts production, oil could reach $74-$76.
Weak economic data and slowing global growth may push prices down to $66.
Conclusion: The price is at a critical level. A breakout above $72 confirms a bullish trend, while dropping below $68 could indicate weakness.
USCRUDEOILCFD trade ideas
Bullish momentum to extend?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 69.86
1st Support: 68.71
1st Resistance: 71.83
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CRUDE OIL LONG SIGNAL|
โ
CRUDE OIL is trading in a
Strong uptrend and was making
A local bearish correction but
A horizontal support level was
Hit at 71.00$ so we can go
Long on with the TP of 71.72$
And the SL of 70.59$
LONG๐
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โจโจ
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Crude Oil: WTI Recovers Slightly Above the $70 ZoneSince touching the key support level at $67 , WTI crude oil has posted a notable recovery of more than 7% in recent weeks, and is now hovering slightly above the $70 per barrel mark. For now, the bullish bias remains intact as comments from the White House suggest potential tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on countries that choose to trade Russian oil. According to President Trump, Russia has failed to implement a ceasefire in the short term and this could lead to additional tarrifs. Although this new tariff strategy has no official date, if enacted, it could significantly disrupt global oil supply, reinforcing short-term bullish expectations for crude.
Wide Sideways Range:
For several months now, oil has been moving within a stable sideways range between $81 (resistance) and $67 (support) per barrel. So far, there hasn't been any significant breakout from this channel, making it the dominant structure on the chart in the short term.
MACD:
The MACD histogram continues to oscillate just above the zero line, but recent sessions have shown slight bearish momentum, possibly signaling a pause in the upward movement as the dominance of the moving averages appears to be neutralizing.
TRIX:
A similar situation is developing in the TRIX indicator, with the line hovering just below the neutral 0 level. This suggests that the strength of the 18-period moving average has entered a zone of balance, lacking a clear directional force.
The behavior of both indicators implies that momentum is gradually weakening as the price approaches resistance levels.
Key Levels:
$73: A key resistance level located near the midpoint of the sideways range, also aligning with the 200-period moving average. A breakout above this level could trigger a solid short-term bullish trend.
$81: A distant resistance level marking the top of the current range. Price action reaching this level could be decisive in confirming a long-term bullish breakout.
$67: A significant support level , marking the lower boundary of the range. A return to this level could revive previously dormant bearish pressure and potentially resume a longer-term downtrend that began several weeks ago.
By Julian Pineda, CFA โ Market Analyst
USOIL Daily Analysis: Bullish Reversal from Key Support USOIL (WTI Crude Oil) daily chart showing price action analysis.
Key Observations:
Support Zone:
A strong demand zone is marked around $65-$66, which has acted as a reversal area in the past.
The price has recently bounced off this zone, indicating potential buyer interest.
Current Price Action:
Price is currently trading at $68.25.
A bullish move started from the support region, with a higher low formation suggesting potential upside momentum.
Potential Scenario:
The chart suggests a pullback before continuation to the upside.
If the support holds, $70-$72 could be the next target.
If price fails to hold above $66, further downside towards $64 may be possible.
Outlook:
Bullish Bias ๐ as long as the price remains above the demand zone.
Watch for a higher low confirmation before entering a long trade.
Breakout above $70 could signal a stronger rally.
USOIL-Sell in the 71.6-72 rangeUSOIL has also experienced a strong uptrend recently, driven by news events. However, as we all know, "what goes up must come down"โeven in a one-sided market, technical corrections are inevitable. Right now, we are seeing a perfect opportunity for a pullback-based short trade after the sharp rally.
Trading Recommendation:
๐ Sell in the 71.6-72 range
USOIL:The bullish momentum demonstrates strong performanceRecently, the United States has stepped up its sanctions against Iran. It also made threatening remarks indicating that if the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine fail to reach an agreement, it will further intensify sanctions against Russia. Such actions have heightened the market's concerns about the future supply side.
Meanwhile, the short-term and phased decline in the United States' domestic oil production, combined with its temporary abstention from taking additional measures to suppress oil prices, has led to a certain increase in the supporting strength of the oil market recently. Yesterday, the upward trend of oil prices continued.
Take a long position at $71.05 for the oil price. Set a stop-loss of 30 basis points and a take-profit at $72.70.
Trading Strategy:
[email protected]
TP:72.20-72.50
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Oil and Gas Markets: Price Pressures and Future OutlookPYTH:WTI3! ICEEUR:BRN1! NYMEX:RB1! FXOPEN:XNGUSD
Market Overview: Supply, Demand, and Geopolitical Factors
The oil and gas markets continue to experience significant volatility, driven by a combination of seasonal trends, production adjustments, and geopolitical developments. U.S. natural gas storage has decreased due to seasonal withdrawals, though inventories remain above the five-year average. Meanwhile, crude oil prices have struggled to find momentum, weighed down by concerns over demand growth and economic uncertainty.
Global oil production has remained relatively stable, but market participants are closely monitoring potential disruptions. OPEC+ has maintained its commitment to output restrictions, aiming to support prices amid fluctuating demand. However, recent indications from major producers suggest potential shifts in supply strategies, particularly in response to changes in global consumption patterns.
Price Trends and Market Pressures
Oil prices have faced downward pressure, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) recently trading below $70 per barrel. Concerns over slowing demand, particularly in key economies like China and the Eurozone, have contributed to this decline. Additionally, rising interest rates in the United States have dampened economic activity, potentially reducing fuel consumption in the long term.
Natural gas prices have also been volatile, reflecting shifts in supply and demand dynamics. While storage levels remain elevated compared to historical averages, colder-than-expected weather in certain regions has led to temporary price spikes. However, recent price movements indicate a broader downward trend, as fundamental supply-demand balances exert pressure on valuations. The price of the F26, which reached $5.9 two weeks ago, has since declined to $5.3, with further movement toward approximately $4.8 anticipated based on current market conditions. These dynamics reflect the ongoing adjustments in global gas markets amid changing consumption patterns and seasonal fluctuations.
Corporate Performance
The impact of these price movements has been felt unevenly across the oil and gas sector. Major integrated energy companies have managed to maintain profitability due to diversified revenue streams, while smaller, more vulnerable producers have faced greater challenges. Refining margins have fluctuated, with some refiners benefiting from lower crude prices while others struggle with narrowing spreads.
Companies with strong exposure to liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports have seen continued demand, particularly in Europe and Asia, where energy security remains a priority. However, firms heavily reliant on upstream oil production have encountered profit pressures as crude prices remain subdued. The resilience of oilfield service providers has also been tested, with cost-cutting measures and efficiency improvements becoming necessary for a sustainable existence.
Risks and Future Outlook
The outlook for oil and gas markets remains uncertain, with multiple risk factors at play. Potential production policy changes by OPEC+, geopolitical tensions in key producing regions, and ongoing economic uncertainties all contribute to an unpredictable pricing environment. Additionally, regulatory shifts and climate policies could further impact the long-term trajectory of fossil fuel demand.
While short-term volatility may deter some, long-term structural changes in energy consumption and supply dynamics will shape future investment strategies. As global economies navigate inflationary pressures and evolving energy policies, oil and gas markets will continue to adjust, presenting both risks and rewards for market participants.
USOIL - Bracketing A Breakout Opportunity As traders we want to be predictive in our analysis and reactive in our execution. And there is no easier way to follow through with this concept then on a bracketed breakout trading opportunity.
Oil has recently been on a short-term bullish run which has ended with price entering a period of consolidation. Consolidation leads to expansion so I do expect a future breakout to occur.
The question however is in which direction. If I knew the answer I would bet everything I have including the house and the kids on it but unfortunately I don't. (and my wife would kill me).
What I do know, is that there's a good chance that the market will give us a clue of what direction it wants to continue in and that's what I'm waiting for with this trading opportunity.
If you have any questions or comments please leave them below & be sure to show some love by hitting that LIKE button before you go.
Akil
WTI OIL Approaching a potential rejection level.Our last short-term analysis (March 18, see chart below) on WTI Oil (USOIL) hit the $70.00 Target and is currently extending the uptrend:
We believe however that this uptrend may be coming to a temporary end as not only does it approach the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) that has been intact since February 03, but also the 73.40 Symmetrical Resistance that kick started the -7.70% September 24 2024 rejection.
As you can this this is also where the 1D RSI 67.00 Resistance is, which has also caused 2 rejections.
Based on that, we will wait for a short on the 1D MA200 to target $68.00.
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Oil - Expecting The Price To Bounce Higher FurtherH1 - Price has created series of higher highs, higher lows structure
Strong bullish momentum
Higher highs based on the moving averages of the MACD indicator
Expecting retraces and further continuation higher until the two strong support zones hold.
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
XTIUSD (WTI Crude Oil) โ Market Analysis (23rd March 2025)XTIUSD (WTI Crude Oil)
Timeframe: 4H
1. Mak Method
Price recently broke above the descending trendline, indicating a potential bullish shift.
Key 369 Level: Price is hovering around $68.61, aligning with my levels.
If price maintains above $67.50, we could see continued bullish movement.
2. Fibonacci, Gann Levels & Elliott Wave
Fibonacci Retracement:
61.8% level at $72.50, making it a critical upside target.
Gann Levels:
Major support at $66.00, which aligns with institutional buying zones.
Elliott Wave Count:
Potential Wave 3 underway, with a break above $70 confirming bullish momentum.
3. Key Technical Levels (Support & Resistance)
Support Levels:
$67.50 - $66.00 โ Strong demand zone, potential bullish retest.
$61.50 - $60.00 โ Major institutional support (if breakdown occurs).
Resistance Levels:
$69.50 - $70.00 โ Short-term resistance, possible liquidity grab.
$72.50 - $75.00 โ Next bullish target, aligning with Fibonacci & order blocks.
4. Probable Scenarios with Probability %
Scenario Probability
Bullish Breakout: Retest of $67.50, then continuation to $70-$72.50. 65%
Fake Breakout & Rejection: Price rejects $69.50 and retraces to $66.00. 25%
Bearish Breakdown: Failure to hold $66.00, leading to a drop to $61.50-$60.00. 10%
5. Conclusion & Trading Strategy
Bias: Bullish above $67.50, bearish below $66.00.
Entry Areas:
Long Entry โ Retest of $67.50 with confirmation.
Short Entry โ Breakdown below $66.00, targeting $61.50.
Stop Loss:
Long trades โ Below $65.80.
Short trades โ Above $70.50.
Final Thoughts:
Watch for false breakouts at $69.50 before confirming bullish moves.
If price consolidates above $68.50 - $69.00, we could see a rally toward $72.50 - $75.00.
Volume Confirmation: Institutional buying at $67.50 could trigger a strong bullish move.
USOIL Is Bullish! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 71.913.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 73.911.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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