Bearish drop?AUD/USD has rejected off the pivot which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support, which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 0.6558
1st Support: 0.6409
1st Resistance: 0.6647
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USDAUD trade ideas
Bullish bounce off pullback support?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.6423
1st Support: 0.6328
1st Resistance: 0.6583
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
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AUDUSD SHORT & LONG FORECAST Q3 D11 W28 Y25AUDUSD SHORT & LONG FORECAST Q3 D11 W28 Y25
It’s Fun Coupon Friday! 💸🔥
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 👀
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Daily Order block identified
✅4H Order Block identified
✅1H Order Block identified
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
AUSSIE BANK ROBBERY: AUD/USD Bullish Breakout Confirmed!🔥 AUD/USD BANK HEIST: The Ultimate Bullish Robbery Plan (Thief Trading Style) 🔥
🌟 ATTENTION, MONEY MAKERS & MARKET ROBBERS! 🌟
💸 MISSION BRIEF:
Based on Thief Trading Style (technical + fundamental analysis), we’re executing a bullish heist on AUD/USD ("The Aussie")—time to steal those pips like a pro!
📈 ENTRY STRATEGY (The Heist Begins!)
Long Entry Trigger: Wait for Dynamic Resistance MA crossover + candle close above 0.65300 (bullish confirmation).
Pro Tip: Use Buy Stop orders above MA or Buy Limit orders on pullbacks (15m/30m timeframe).
🔔 SET AN ALERT! Don’t miss the breakout—alert up, gloves on!
🛑 STOP LOSS (Protect Your Loot!)
"Yo, rookie! 🗣️ If you’re entering on breakout, DO NOT set SL before confirmation!
📍 Thief SL Placement: Nearest 4H swing low (0.64800)—adjust based on your risk, lot size, & trade multiples.
⚠️ Warning: Deviate at your own peril—your risk, your rules!
🎯 TARGET (Cash Out & Run!)
Take Profit Zone: 0.65800
Scalpers: Long-only plays! Use trailing SL to lock profits.
Swing Traders: Ride the wave—big money moves require patience!
📰 FUNDAMENTAL BACKUP (Know Why We Robbin’!)
Bullish momentum fueled by macro trends, COT data, sentiment shifts.
🚨 Breaking News Alert: Avoid high-impact news spikes—trail SL or stay out!
💥 BOOST THE HEIST!
Hit 👍 LIKE, 🔄 SHARE & 🚀 BOOST—strengthen the robbery squad! More heists = more profits!
🤑 NEXT HEIST COMING SOON… STAY TUNED! 🐱👤
AUDUSD Bearish Breakout!
HI,Traders !
AUD-USD is trading in a sideways trend
and the pair
Made a breakout of the
Key horizontal level
Of 0.8149 which is now
A resistance and the pair
Is now making a retest
Of the level so as we are
Bearish biased we will
Be expecting a pullback
And a further bearish
Move down !
Comment and subscribe to help us grow !
AUD/USD Long Setup – 1H Demand to 4H Supply 🧠 Trade Breakdown:
Price tapped into a clear 1H demand zone and showed bullish reaction. The setup is targeting a 4H supply zone above. This is a classic demand-to-supply flow with room for clean upside.
⸻
📍 Key Confluences:
• Strong 1H demand (reaction zone clearly respected)
• Clear bullish structure: Higher highs + higher lows
• 4H supply zone above as natural target zone
• Momentum supported by clean bullish candles on the way up
• Entry aligns with a pullback to demand zone wick rejection
⸻
📈 Trade Setup:
• Pair: AUD/USD
• Entry: 0.65881
• Stop Loss: 0.65570 (below demand wick)
• Take Profit: 0.66583 (4H supply zone)
• Risk-to-Reward (RR): ~1:6
⸻
🧠 Mindset:
Let this setup breathe — it’s demand into higher timeframe supply. No need to panic on minor retracements. Trust your bias. Let the setup develop. Protect your capital, but don’t micromanage the trade.
“Trade Simple. Live Lavish.”
AUDUSD ENTRY CHARTOn this Pair, we are still BEARISh, the Dollar is still very much Strong,price retrace back to our H1 zone that we have been watching out for, we got our Entry Confirmations with other Confluences, If this matches with your Trade idea, you can add to your watch-list, and if joined, kindly dont forget to move BREAK-EVEn,after +1R, or check the update section, THANK YOU, and Dont forget to RISK WISELY
AUDUSDAUD/USD is currently forming an impulsive Wave 3 — one of the strongest and most profitable phases in Elliott Wave theory. 🚀📊
The structure suggests strong bullish momentum is building.
We've already entered our first BUY position and are patiently waiting for a pullback to add more.
Wave 3 is typically the longest and most powerful wave, so we’re locking in early and planning to scale in on confirmation.
Stay sharp, manage your risk, and ride the trend.
#AUDUSD #ForexSignals #ElliottWave #Wave3 #BuyTheDip #ForexTradingStrategy
AUDUSD – The Spring Is Loading!AUDUSD has just pulled off an impressive rebound from the 0.6460 support zone, bouncing cleanly off the ascending trendline — like a compressed spring ready to launch. The repeated appearance of Fair Value Gaps after recent upward moves reveals a critical clue: smart money is stepping back in, and this time, they want control.
The price is now testing the familiar resistance at 0.6616 — a zone that has previously rejected several bullish attempts. But this time feels different. The US dollar is clearly losing steam after softer CPI data, pushing bond yields lower and giving AUD a tactical edge.
If the 0.6520 support holds strong, the next breakout won’t just be about overcoming resistance — it could be the spark for a new bullish wave. And when that wave hits... it won’t go unnoticed.
AUDUSD H4 I Bullish Bounce Off Based on the H4 chart, the price could fall toward our buy entry level at 0.6554, a pullback resistance.
Our take profit is set at 0.6617, aligning with the 127.2% Fib extension.
The stop loss is set at 0.6508, an overlap support.
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AUDUSD STARTED FORMING BEARISH TREND STRUCTUREAUDUSD STARTED FORMING BEARISH TREND STRUCTURE
Price started forming lower low, which indicates bearish trend.
price is expected to remain bearish in upcoming trading sessions.
on lower side market may hit the targets of 0.64500 & 0.63800.
On higher side 0.65900 level can act as a important resistance level.
AUD/USD - Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn AUD/USD, it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 0.65470. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated.
I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again.
Strong S/R zone from the past and Volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go short on this trade.
Happy trading,
Dale
Aussie: Still Growing!
CAPITALCOM:AUDUSD
The bullish momentum continues after our last successful AUDUSD setup, and a move toward the 0.65900 resistance area looks probable now.
🪙 My Trading Plan:
🔼 BUY Stop: 0.65648
❌ Stop Loss: 0.65320
✅ Take Profit: 0.65965
💡 Why am I buying here?
✅ Price broke recent resistance at 0.65500, activating buy trades.
✅ RSI confirm ongoing bullish momentum 📊.
📰 Fundamental Situation:
🏦 RBA Rate Decision Supports AUD
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised markets by holding rates steady at 3.85% 🏛️, diverging from expectations of a cut. This cautious stance reflects the RBA’s preference to wait for clearer signs of slowing inflation 📉 before adjusting policy further.
Governor Michele Bullock emphasized that inflation risks remain persistent ⚠️, driven by high labor costs and weak productivity, possibly requiring a longer period of restrictive policy ⏳. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser noted the bank is closely monitoring global risks 🌐, especially US tariff developments, underscoring sensitivity to global headwinds that could impact trade and growth 📦.
🌎 Trade Tensions in Focus:
President Trump ruled out extending tariff deadlines beyond August 1 ⛔, announcing new duties:
🔹 50% on copper 🪙
🔹 Potential 200% on pharmaceuticals 💊
🔹 10% on goods from BRICS 🌐
These moves are likely to intensify global trade tensions ⚔️, potentially impacting commodity flows and inflation, which the RBA and markets will continue to monitor closely.
China's PPI slides, Australian dollar steadyThe Australian dollar is almost unchanged on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6532, up 0.03% on the day.
China's producer price index surprised on the downside in June, with a steep 3.6% y/y decline. TThe soft PPI report was driven by weak domestic demand and the continuing uncertainty over US tariffs. The lack of consumer demand was reflected in the weak CPI reading of 0.1% y /y, the first gain in four months. Monthly, CPI declined by 0.1%, following a 0.2% drop in May. There was a silver lining as core CPI rose 0.7% y/y, the fastest pace in 14 months.
The uncertainty over US President Trump's tariff policy continues to perplex the financial markets. Trump had promised a new round of tariffs against a host of countries on July 9 but he has delayed that deadline until August 1.
China, the world's second-largest economy after the US, has taken a hit from US tariffs, as China's exports to the US are down 9.7% this year, However, China has mitigated much of the damage as China's exports to the rest of the world are up 6%. There is a trade truce in effect between the two countries but the bruising trade war will continue to dampen US-China trade.
With no tier-1 events out of the US today, the FOMC minutes of the June meeting will be on center stage. The Fed held rates at that meeting and Fed Chair Powell, who has taken a lot of heat from Donald Trump to cut rates, defended his wait-and-see-attitude, citing the uncertainty that Trump's tariffs are having on US growth and inflation forecasts.his was below the May decline of 3.3% and the consensus of -3.2%. China has posted producer deflation for 33 successive months and the June figure marked the steepest slide since July 2023. Monthly, PPI declined by 0.4%, unchanged over the past three months.
AUDUSD Will Move Lower! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for AUDUSD.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 0.653.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 0.649 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
AUDUSD Today July 8th 2025, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to announce a 25 basis point cut in the official cash rate, lowering it from 3.85% to 3.60%. This would be the third rate cut in 2025, reflecting easing inflation and a slowing economy.
Key Details for July 8, 2025:
2:30 AM WAT:
Release of NAB Business Confidence data for Australia.
5:30 AM WAT:
Announcement of the RBA Cash Rate decision, expected to be cut to 3.60% from 3.85%.
Release of the RBA Rate Statement, outlining the rationale behind the decision.
RBA Press Conference follows, providing further insights and answering questions.
Market Expectations and Impact:
Major banks including Westpac, Commonwealth Bank, NAB, and ANZ unanimously forecast this 25 bps cut due to softer inflation and subdued economic growth.
The rate cut is expected to ease borrowing costs, potentially saving mortgage holders .
The RBA aims to balance supporting growth while maintaining inflation within its 2–3% target band.
Summary Timeline (WAT)
Time Event Expected Outcome
2:30 AM NAB Business Confidence Indicator of business sentiment
5:30 AM RBA Cash Rate Announcement Cut from 3.85% to 3.60%
5:30 AM RBA Rate Statement Explanation of decision
5:30 AM RBA Press Conference Q&A and further guidance
This rate cut is part of a broader easing cycle, with markets pricing in multiple cuts through the rest of 2025 as inflation remains manageable but economic growth slows.
2. 10-Year Government Bond Yields
Australia 10-Year Bond Yield: Has been falling in 2025 alongside expectations of RBA rate cuts,
AU10Y=4.232%
OCR=3.85% TO TRIM IT TO 3.60% TODAY.
US10Y=4.383%
USD IRT=4.25%-4.5%
3. Interest Rates
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Cash Rate: Recently cut from 3.85% to 3.60% in July 2025, with expectations of further easing (potentially down to ~3.6% by year-end).
US Federal Reserve Rate: Held steady at 4.25%–4.50% as of mid-2025, with a slower pace of cuts compared to Australia.
4. Interest Rate Differential and Impact on AUD/USD
The interest rate differential (US rate minus Australian rate) currently favors the US by approximately 0.65–0.9 percentage points (Fed rate ~4.25–4.50% vs. RBA ~3.60%).
This narrowing differential from earlier wider gaps has weighed on the AUD, as higher US rates attract capital flows, supporting the USD.
However, the recent RBA rate cuts and easing inflation in Australia have softened the differential, giving some support to the AUD.
Other factors influencing AUD/USD include US tariffs, China’s economic outlook (as Australia’s key trading partner), and global risk sentiment.
The AUD/USD is expected to remain sensitive to the interest rate differential and central bank policies.
Further RBA cuts could weaken the AUD if the US Fed maintains higher rates.
Conversely, any signs of US rate cuts or easing trade tensions could boost the AUD.
Inflation trends, China’s economic health, and geopolitical factors will also play key roles.
In essence:
The interest rate differential between the US and Australia currently favors the US, supporting the USD over the AUD, but recent RBA easing and falling Australian bond yields have narrowed this gap, providing some support to the AUD/USD pair . Traders closely watch upcoming economic data and central bank decisions for direction.
#AUDUSD #RBA #FEDS #BONDS #AU10Y #US10Y
AUD/USD Short: Riding the Perfect Storm to 0.6400Hello, traders! 🚀
A rare and powerful setup is forming on AUD/USD, and all signs are pointing decisively lower. 👇 This isn't just a simple technical pattern; it's a perfect storm of fundamental, technical, and event-driven factors aligning to create a high-conviction short opportunity.
If you're looking for a clean setup with a clear catalyst, this is it. Let's break it down! 🧐
The Core Thesis: Why We're Bearish 🌪️
This trade is built on three powerful pillars that are converging at the same time:
Massive Policy Divergence: 🇺🇸 vs 🇦🇺 This is the engine of the trade.
The Fed (USD): Remains HAWKISH 🦅. They are laser-focused on fighting stubborn inflation and have signaled they are in no rush to cut rates.
The RBA (AUD): Is actively DOVISH 🐨. They've already cut rates and are widely expected to cut again this week to support a weakening economy.
Result: This widening gap in interest rate policy creates a fundamental tailwind that heavily favors a stronger USD and a weaker AUD. 💸
The Dual-Catalyst Event (July 9th): 🗓️ This is the trigger.
FOMC Minutes Release: The minutes from the Fed's last meeting are expected to confirm their hawkish stance, reinforcing USD strength.
Tariff Deadline: A 90-day suspension of Trump-era tariffs expires on the same day . The base case is that tariffs will be reimposed, sparking a risk-off move in the markets.
Result: Risk-off sentiment is toxic for the risk-sensitive Aussie dollar (AUD) and a magnet for the safe-haven US dollar (USD). This is a potential double-whammy for AUD/USD. 💥
The Technical Picture is Screaming "Down" 📉
The chart tells a crystal-clear story of rejection and weakness. As you can see on the 4H chart, the price action is incredibly bearish after failing to break out higher.
The Great Wall of Resistance: Bulls threw everything they had at the 0.6590 - 0.6600 resistance zone and were decisively rejected. 🧱 This wasn't just any level; it was an 8-month high and a major long-term resistance area. A failure this strong is a huge red flag for buyers. 🛑
Momentum has Flipped: We saw classic bearish divergence on the higher timeframes, and as you can see on this 4H chart, we have now decisively broken below the recent rising channel. The path of least resistance has flipped from up to down. 👇
The Trade Plan 🎯
Here are the precise levels for executing this trade idea.
Asset: AUD/USD
Direction: Short (Sell) 📉
Entry Zone: ➡️ Look for a patient entry on a pullback to the 0.6535 - 0.6550 area. This was previous support and is now expected to act as strong resistance. We want to sell into strength.
Stop Loss: 🛑 A daily close above 0.6610 . This level is safely above the recent highs. A break here would invalidate our bearish thesis.
Target 1 (TP1): ✅ 0.6475 . This is the first logical support level. A good area to take partial profits and move your stop loss to break-even.
Target 2 (TP2): 🏆 0.6400 . This is our primary target, representing the bottom of the multi-week trading range and offering an excellent risk-to-reward ratio.
Conclusion: 💡
It's rare for fundamentals, technicals, and a major event catalyst to align so perfectly. The rejection at major resistance, combined with the powerful fundamental driver of policy divergence and the upcoming dual-catalyst on July 9th, makes this a high-conviction setup.
This is my analysis and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk carefully.
What do you think? Are you bearish on the Aussie too? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below! 👇
And if you found this analysis helpful, please give it a BOOST 🚀 and FOLLOW for more trade ideas! 👍
AUDUSDTHE month July 8, 2025, the key Australian economic events
2:30 AM WAT – NAB Business Confidence
Actual: 5
Forecast: 2
The NAB Business Confidence Index rose sharply to 5 in June 2025 from 2 in May, marking its highest level since January and indicating improving business sentiment. This improvement was driven by gains in sales, profitability, and employment, signaling optimism about the economic outlook despite some lingering cost pressures.
5:30 AM WAT – RBA Cash Rate and Related Announcements
Cash Rate Actual: 3.85% (no cut at this meeting)
Forecast: 3.60% (markets had expected a 25 bps cut)
Previous: 3.85%
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held the cash rate steady at 3.85%, surprising markets that had expected a cut to 3.60%. The RBA Rate Statement accompanied the decision, providing insights into the bank’s view on inflation, growth, and monetary policy. The decision reflects the RBA’s cautious stance amid mixed economic signals and ongoing inflation concerns.
The stronger business confidence contrasted with the RBA’s decision to pause rate cuts, highlighting uncertainty about the economic outlook and inflation trajectory in Australia.
AU10Y=ROSE TO 4.3% FROM DAILY OPEN OF 4.206%
AUD OCR=3.85% THE SAME
US10Y=4.391%
US IRT=4.25-4.5%
This shift in AU1OY and RATE hold of 3.85% will give AUD a buy opportunity going forward.
while we are seeing tariff related shocks evident ,AUSTRALIA a commodities dependent economy will take a offensive .
The announcement and implementation of tariffs have created uncertainty, causing the AUD to decline from recent highs. The AUD/USD pair dropped in anticipation of tariff changes and broader risk aversion in global markets.
Market Sentiment:
The threat of higher tariffs and trade tensions typically weighs on the AUD, as Australia’s economy is highly exposed to global trade flows. Increased tariffs can reduce export competitiveness and hurt terms of trade, especially if global growth slows as a result.
Limited Direct Impact:
since the US is not Australia’s largest export market. However, indirect effects—such as slower global growth or disruptions in China (Australia’s biggest trading partner)—could further pressure the AUD.
Broader Economic and Policy Context
RBA Response:
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cited tariff uncertainty as a reason for holding interest rates steady, adopting a “wait-and-see” approach until the full effects of global trade tensions are clearer.
Exchange Rate as Shock Absorber:
The AUD often acts as a buffer during global shocks. If tariffs or trade tensions worsen, a weaker AUD can help offset some of the negative effects by making Australian exports more competitive, but it also increases the cost of imports.
Key Takeaways
Tariff uncertainty has already contributed to recent AUD weakness.
If trade tensions escalate or global growth slows, the AUD could face further downside.
The RBA is likely to remain cautious, and the AUD will remain sensitive to both tariff developments and broader economic data.
#AUDUSD
AUD/USD Struggles at ResistanceAUD/USD is now nearly 1.6% off the highs with the weekly opening-range taking shape just below Fibonacci resistance- looking for a potential breakout in the days ahead.
A look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD reversing pitchfork resistance with the weekly opening-range taking shape just below resistance at the 61.8% retracement of the 2024 decline / weekly open at 6550/53- looking for a reaction off this mark.
A top-side breach of the weekly opening-range exposes the upper parallel again, currently near ~6600. Ultimately, a close above the September low at 6622 is needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2019 low at 6671 and the 78.6% retracement near 6723.
Initial support rests with the June low-day close (LDC) at 6458- note that the 75% parallel converges on this threshold into the close of the week and a break / close below would threaten a larger Aussie pullback. Subsequent support objectives rest at the 200-day moving average (currently ~6411) and 6332/62- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range, the April / August 2024 lows, and the May swing low. Losses beyond this threshold would suggest a more significant high is in place / larger reversal is underway.
Bottom line: The Aussie rally failed into the trendline resistance with the monthly opening-range taking shape just below. While the broader outlook is still constructive, the advance remains vulnerable here and the immediate focus is on a breakout of the weekly range (6486-6553) for guidance. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6458 IF Aussie is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above 6622 needed to mark uptrend resumption.
-MB
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 7 - 11 JulyMarket Insights: RBA Cut in Focus, UK GDP Weakens, Canada Jobs, FOMC Clues, Tariff Deadline
From rate decisions to rising unemployment and tariff deadlines, this week’s macro landscape is shaped by evolving dynamics and shifting momentum. If you’re trading FX, commodities, or indices — this is a moment to pay close attention.
In this episode of Market Insights, Gary Thomson unpacks the strategic implications of the week’s biggest events:
— RBA Interest Rate Decision
— UK GDP Growth Rate
— Unemployment Rate in Canada
— FOMC Minutes
— Tariff Deadline
Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.
This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.