USDCAD MARKET OUTLOOK📊 USDCAD Institutional Market Outlook
🔷 Monthly & Weekly Structure – Bearish Bias
A Monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG) was formed after a breakaway gap, closing all prior bullish FVGs. This signals strong bearish intent from institutions, with a likely draw toward the next key liquidity level at 1.34210.
Similarly, a Weekly FVG, also formed from a breakaway imbalance, is currently acting as an unmitigated supply zone. Historically, FVGs formed from breakaway moves are not revisited until the market completes its delivery to a main liquidity pool — in this case, the 1.34210 level.
Price is now consolidating below this weekly FVG, reinforcing a continuation bias rather than reversal.
🔹 Daily Structure – Short-Term Countertrend Rally
A bullish Daily FVG has recently formed, suggesting a possible short-term countertrend rally.
However, due to the breakaway nature of the weekly FVG, price is unlikely to reach back up to 1.3760 before continuing its bearish path.
A probable scenario: price may react from daily demand zones, push into a short-term premium area, then resume its decline toward 1.34210.
🌐 Fundamental Confluence
🟥 CAD Weakness:
U.S. tariff policy is placing heavy pressure on the Canadian economy, especially in autos, steel, and oil sectors.
Recent SECO reports and tariff-related projections expect a long-term GDP drag of ~2.1%.
Although oil prices have slightly rebounded, it's not enough to counterbalance the trade and policy headwinds.
🟩 USD Strength:
The U.S. dollar remains supported by global safe haven flows and a resilient macro backdrop.
No significant shift in Fed policy tone has emerged, and the USD continues to benefit from relative strength across multiple pairs.
| Timeframe | Bias | Reason |
| ------------ | ------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Monthly | Bearish | Breakaway FVG + closed bullish zones → draw toward 1.34210 |
| Weekly | Bearish | Consolidation below breakaway supply zone |
| Daily | Short-term bullish | Countertrend move expected into local premium, likely to fail near 1.3760 |
| Fundamentals | Bearish CAD, Bullish USD | Tariff risks + economic divergence
