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U.S. Dollar / Euro

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EUR/USD Analysis: US Dollar Strengthens at the Start of the WeekEUR/USD Analysis: US Dollar Strengthens at the Start of the Week On 2 July, on the EUR/USD chart, we noted that the rally—during which the pair had gained more than 6% since mid-May—was under threat, citing several technical signals, including: → proximity of the price to the upper boundary of the ascending channel; → overbought conditions on the RSI indicator; → nearby resistance from the Fibonacci Extension levels, around 1.18500. Trading at the start of the week points to renewed US dollar strength. This became particularly evident with the opening of the European session, which triggered a decline in EUR/USD to the 1.17500 area. It is reasonable to assume that the dollar’s strength against the euro is linked to early-week positioning by traders, who are anticipating news regarding US trade agreements. According to Reuters, the United States is close to finalising several trade deals in the coming days and is expected to notify 12 other countries today about higher tariffs. EUR/USD Technical Chart Analysis The ascending channel established last week remains in play, with the following developments: → a dashed midline within the upper half of the channel has been breached by bearish pressure (as indicated by the arrow); → a series of lower highs in recent sessions suggests the formation of a downward trajectory, within which the price could move towards the channel median—or potentially test its lower boundary. P.S. In the longer term, analysts at Morgan Stanley maintain a bullish outlook, forecasting that EUR/USD could rise to 1.2700 by the end of 2027. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
EUR/USD Pair Analysis📉 EUR/USD Pair Analysis – Monday, July 7, 2025 1️⃣ A clear ascending price channel on the daily chart defines the overall trend of the pair. 2️⃣ The price is currently touching the upper boundary of the channel, indicating a potential downward correction from the designated areas (in gray). 3️⃣ Strong demand areas have emerged at lower levels, which may support a subsequent upside move. 📌 Summary and Recommendation: 🔻 In the short term: An opportunity to quickly sell the pair using scalping from the current areas, targeting nearby points. 🔺 In the medium to long term: We prefer to wait for a decline to the lower boundary of the price channel, as we plan to buy from there, in line with the general uptrend.
Long
by ShakerTrading
EURUSD – Monday July 7th Outlook - 4hr chartPrice action confirms resistance at 1.17905, now tapped on both Friday and today. Current View: Bullish bias remains intact long-term Short-term: Expecting a deeper pullback Range forming between 1.17170 – 1.17905 Scenarios: Break below 1.17170 = Likely move to 1.16020 (previous swing low) Break + close above 1.17905 = Clean continuation to 1.18791 While inside range → No trade Key Buy Zones: ✅ 1.16020 rejection ✅ Break + retest above 1.17905 Patience until direction confirms.
Long
by Thetraderscollective
EURUSD Will Go Higher From Support! Long! Take a look at our analysis for EURUSD. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 1.172. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 1.177 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
Decisive Week: Duties, Oil and Flight from the Dollar Hello, I am Forex trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about the week full of tensions and opportunities in global currency markets. The new tariff threats from the United States, the strategic moves of OPEC + and the growing instability in the British government bond market are shaking up the entire Forex landscape, with direct implications on USD, AUD, CAD, GBP and JPY. I thank in advance the Official Broker Partner PEPPERSTONE for the support in the creation of this article. The most explosive news concerns the possible imposition of new duties by the United States, with a deadline set for July 9. The American administration, according to Reuters sources, is ready to activate tariffs of up to 70% on some categories of strategic imports if new bilateral agreements are not signed by the end of the month. The market has reacted cautiously, but signs of systemic risk are starting to filter through: US futures are falling, capital is moving into safe havens, and the dollar is starting to lose ground structurally. The decline in oil has added further pressure. OPEC+ announced the start of an increase in production from August, with about 550 thousand barrels per day more than the current level. This has hit Brent and WTI hard, which are now both below $68. Currencies that are highly correlated to commodities, such as CAD and NOK, are weakening, especially in the absence of a monetary response from their respective central banks. Meanwhile, the UK is facing a delicate moment. Yields on 10-year gilts have risen to their highest since April, with a sell-off that has forced the Bank of England to review the pace of its asset disposal. The instability of the British debt is putting pressure on the pound, already tested by inflation that is struggling to recover and a stagnant housing market. The GBP/USD pair remains extremely volatile, while EUR/GBP is moving sideways waiting for a clearer direction. But the star of the week is Australia. The AUD has scored the eighth consecutive week of gains, taking advantage of both the weakness of the dollar and the expectations of a more gradual future rate cut by the RBA. The AUD/USD cross has broken the highs of November 2024 and is now targeting levels of 0.67-0.68. The same goes for NZD/USD, which is also in a phase of bullish consolidation. The US dollar, on the other hand, has recorded its worst start to the year since 1973: a combination of political uncertainty, fiscal instability and falling confidence is eroding global demand for the USD, pushing many managers to diversify into emerging or commodity-linked currencies. Finally, the Federal Reserve is taking its time. Powell stated that the path of rates will be closely linked to the evolution of trade tensions. The Fed, therefore, appears more wait-and-see than expected, postponing a possible cut to the third quarter. This leaves the dollar exposed to downward pressure, especially if inflation were to slow further in the meantime. In summary, this week offers extremely interesting scenarios for Forex traders. Institutional flows seem to favor alternative currencies to the dollar, while sentiment remains fragile on GBP and CAD. AUD, NZD and JPY emerge as potential winners, at least until new macro developments or significant technical breaks. The watchword is: selection. With volatility on the rise and the geopolitical context rapidly evolving, only those who know how to read the movements of central banks and institutions in advance will be able to take full advantage of the opportunities offered by the markets.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
EURUSD BUYING AREA (EUR/USD Analysis): Pair: EUR/USD Timeframe: 4H (4-Hour) Current Price: 1.17660 Analysis Date: July 7, 2025 Chart mein clearly dikh raha hai ke price ne strong bullish rally ke baad resistance breakout kiya hai jo ab support zone ban chuka hai (marked in purple box around 1.15800 - 1.16300). Price ab expected hai ke thoda retrace kare aur phir is new support zone par bullish confirmation dikhaye. Wahan se price likely bounce karega towards a new target high. --- 🎯 Target & Trading Plan: 📍Support Zone (Buy Zone): 🔹 1.15800 – 1.16300 🔹 Look for bullish reversal pattern in this zone (e.g. bullish engulfing, double bottom) 🎯Target Point: 🔹 1.20000 🔹 This level is the next significant resistance and potential take-profit zone 📉Stop Loss (Risk Management): 🔹 Below 1.15500 🔹 Invalidation of bullish setup if price breaks below support --- ✅ Trade Setup Summary: Type Level Entry Zone 1.15800 - 1.16300 Stop Loss Below 1.15500 Take Profit 1.20000 Risk:Reward Approx. 1:3+
Long
by Mr_Andy1786
2
EURUSD- SHORT to SUPPORT (but I'm a BULL longterm)EURUSD- has seen a magnificant rise and long trend for several months since January. Watching for a pullback to the 21EMA and Daily support to take this long again. - At Monthly M3 -USD strength to resistance expected this week. -Bearish candle LL after 3 touches of Resistance and a LL. - the previous inside candle occurred on Friday but we did not make a HH or a LL. -On the hourly we are bearish, having broken support and restesting.- 1.1774 & 21 EMA. - Under 1.1717 price will turn bearish on daily. -Watching the next possible support level of 1.1763 as a level that may hold. Short-term bear target - 1.1623 - Support and Dly 21 EMA restest of channel bottom to take this long with confirmation.
Short
by gillianpatrice
EURUSD InsightHello to all our subscribers, Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don't forget to like and subscribe! Key Points - President Trump stated, “A letter will be sent on Monday, and it could be 12 countries, possibly even 15.” He added, “I think we’ll finalize negotiations with most countries by July 9 — either a letter or a deal.” - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besent said that “President Trump will send a letter stating that if negotiations with trade partners do not make real progress, tariff levels will revert to those announced on April 2, starting August 1.” - The legislative process for the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” centered on making Trump’s tax cuts permanent, was completed on July 4. The U.S. Treasury is expected to significantly increase the issuance of Treasury securities soon. Key Economic Events This Week + July 8: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision + July 9: Release of FOMC Meeting Minutes + July 10: Germany June Consumer Price Index (CPI) + July 11: United Kingdom May GDP EURUSD Chart Analysis The pair recently broke above the 1.18000 level and appears to be approaching key resistance near the highs. There still seems to be some room for further upside. If the upward move continues, the 1.19000 level is the most likely target for the next peak. However, if the trend reverses downward, a pullback to the 1.15000 level remains a possibility.
Long
by shawntime_academy
EURUSD H1 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H1 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 1.1778, a pullback resistance. Our take profit is set at 1.1758, an overlap support. The stop loss is set at 1.180, a swing high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
EUR/CAD: Long. Is this a "loonie" trade?Hello traders Clarification: CAD is also referred to as the loonie, a former Canadian one dollar coin. The 50 base point cut by the BoC was expected. The CAD strengthened against the USD and CAD immediately afterwards. Classic knee jerk reaction of buy the rumor, sell the news. Both EUR/CAD and EUR/USD have found support on the 4H chart. The EURO has been on the backfoot against the USD but with the ECB rate decision in less than 24 hours, I have taken a long EUR/CAD position. The ECB is expected to cut by 25 base points which will still give the CAD a slight advantage. However, the Canadian forward guidance points to more rate cuts to stimulate consumer spending, albeit more gradually/25 points at a time. This leaves the ECB's forward guidance to cement this idea. IF Ms. Lagarde once again expresses concern about inflation moving forward, the EURO may appreciate across the board. Fundamentally the Euro Zone needs this rate cut. The economic conditions are not great at the moment. That leaves the FOMC next week and also the BOJ to provide us with more forward guidance. Once this is out of the way, we'll have a much better idea what to expect in 2025, bar some more geopolitical unrest or other major market moving event. Best of luck, all. The EUR/JPY is also some upside promise but keep in mind, the JPY marches to its own drummer. DXY is also retreating
Long
by jvrfxalerts
3
EURUSD: overboughtFriday was a non-working day in the US, as the country was celebrating Independence Day. The most important weekly macro data was related to US jobs data. At the start of the week JOLTs job openings in May were posted with a figure of 7.769M, significantly higher from market estimate of 7,3M. The next day the NFPs and Unemployment rate was published. As per data, the unemployment rate dropped by 0,1pp to the level of 4,1%, which missed market expectations of 4,2%. The Non-farm payrolls in June added 147K new jobs, again better from forecasted 110K. The average hourly earnings were higher by 0,2% in June, or 3,7% on a yearly basis, modestly below the forecasted 3,9%. Other weekly macro data including ISM Manufacturing PMI in June reached 49,0 a bit higher from estimated 48,8. The ISM Services PMI in June was standing at 50,8 in line with market estimates. Retail Sales in Germany dropped by an additional -1,6% in May, bringing the indicator to the level of +1,6% on a yearly basis. Both figures were lower from the market estimate of +0,5% for May and +3,3% for the year. Inflation rate in Germany preliminary in June was 2% a bit lower from forecasted 2,2%. Inflation for the month was standing at 0%. Preliminary inflation data for the Euro Zone in June was 0,3% for the month and 2% for the year. EuroZone core inflation was standing at 2,3% in June, exactly in line with market estimates. The unemployment rate in the Euro Zone in May was modestly increased by 0,1pp to the level of 6,3%, while the market was expecting to remain flat at 6,2%. The US Dollar continued its decline against the euro during the previous week. The highest weekly level was at 1,1825, but the currency pair closed the week at 1,1776. The RSI reached the level of 73, signalling a clear overbought market side, increasing the probability of a short term reversal in the coming period. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, indicating low probability of a potential cross in the future period. The eurusd daily chart is showing that the currency pair had formed a sort of channel with an uptrend during the past period. If lows from end of February, mid March and end of March are connected, the indication for a next potential level of eurusd might be somewhere above the 1,16 level. The 1,1620 was the highest level achieved in mid July this year, which aligns well with the previous indication. Indicators are currently showing higher probability of a short term reversal. The week ahead is not bringing any currently significant news with respect to the US economy, in which sense, it could be expected that the market will slow down a bit during the week. Short reversal is quite possible, where the level of 1,1620 might be shortly tested. Just in case that the market decides to continue movement toward the higher grounds, then 1,18 resistance will be tested, before the market continues its road toward the 1,19 level. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Industrial Production in May in Germany, Retail Sales in the Euro Zone for May, Balance of Trade in Germany in May, Inflation rate final for May in Germany, USD: FOMC Meeting minutes.
by XBTFX
EURUSDEUR/USD Exchange Rate EUR/USD: 1.17735 The euro has strengthened against the US dollar, trading near its highest level since early 2024, supported by a softer DXY and stable Eurozone outlook. 10-Year Government Bond Yields Region 10-Year Yield Date Eurozone 2.560% July 5, 2025 United States 4.348% July 5, 2025 The US 10-year Treasury yield remains above the Eurozone’s, but the gap has narrowed in recent months. Central Bank Policy Rates Central Bank Policy Rate Last Change/Status ECB 2.00% (Deposit Rate) Cut by 25 bps in June 2025 Federal Reserve 4.25%–4.50% Unchanged since Dec 2024 The ECB recently cut its deposit rate to 2.00% RFR 2.15% MLF 2.4%, its lowest in over two years, as inflation nears target and growth remains subdued. The Fed has held its target range steady at 4.25%–4.50% since December 2024, with markets expecting possible cuts later in 2025 on cautious wait and see approach by feds Rate and Yield Differentials Metric US Eurozone Differential (US - Eurozone) Policy Rate 4.25–4.50% 2.00% 2.25–2.50% 10-Year Bond Yield 4.35% 2.560% 1.79% Yield Differential: The US 10-year yield exceeds the Eurozone’s by 1.79 percentage points, a key driver for capital flows and EUR/USD direction ,but strong euro zone economic outlook offset the yield and bond advantage giving the euro buy advantage . Policy Rate Differential: The Fed’s policy rate is 2.25–2.50 percentage points higher than the ECB’s, though the gap is expected to narrow if the Fed cuts rates later this year. Market Implications EUR/USD: The narrowing yield and rate differentials have supported euro strength in recent weeks. Bond Markets: US yields remain higher, but the Eurozone’s 10-year yield is at a multi-year high, reflecting persistent inflation and reduced ECB accommodation. Central Bank Outlook: Both the Fed and ECB are expected to remain data-dependent, with further easing possible if economic conditions warrant. The euro is currently strong against the dollar, with narrowing rate and yield differentials reflecting shifting monetary policy expectations and global economic condition. #eurusd
Long
by Shavyfxhub
EURUSD Quadruple Top Rejection Pattern - Bearish Correction This quadruple top rejection pattern on the H1 timeframe is currently in play and it is a strong indication or confirmation that the bearish correction will likely resume next week. If you are unsure when to enter short positions for this trade setup, wait for a demand zone to break, followed by a pullback and continue to ride the bearish momentum and target the next demand zone, and the next and so on and so forth until a time when this correction ends and the uptrend continues.
Short
by Moipone_Phakisi