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USDEUR trade ideas

EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 4, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the trading session this week, we witnessed the successful completion of the Outer Currency Rally at a level of 1.177. Recent analyses suggest that the Euro is likely to encounter a downward trend, with an initial target set at the Mean Support level of 1.168 and a potential extension to an additional Mean Support of 1.160. Nevertheless, it is crucial to acknowledge the possibility of a subsequent increase toward the next Outer Currency Rally level of 1.187 before any definitive downward movement transpires.
by TradeSelecter
EURUSD - Where next?Looking at EURUSD I still feel like we are due some sort of deeper retracement to the downside considering how bullish the 4H and Daily time frame have been in recent times. Although the market does not care how I feel in all honesty haha. I will play the short term short until the 15min orderflow switches bullish once again. The expansion that is currently happing right now is very interesting and makes a good watch to see what we will do come market open as we are engineering liquidity for both a buy and sell with both POI's looking primed for entries. Will be keeping a close and keen eye on EURUSD when the market opens Any questions feel free to give me a message
by BenFxLDN
EURUSD - End of the bull trend? Entering in a Range or a Bear?EURUSD is reaching a channel line on the weekly chart and it already showed us that traders are watching it. Last week we had a very strong and climatic bull move, indicating bears were off, possibly waiting for the market to reach this level. Now that we reached it, we have a weekly candle with a long upper tail, indicating bulls taking profit and bears coming in. The market is also overextended from the 20 EMA and a longer pullback looks reasonable and healthy at this point. Let's see what happens in the next few weeks. But anyway, whoever made money on this bull trend is now shifting to a more cautious perspective. A pullback to the EMA is likely this year, since we didn't touch it since March 2025.
Short
by lestercrest
EU| - Bullish Structure Intact | Watching for SSL Sweep and RunPair: EURUSD Bias: Bullish Timeframes: 4H, 2H, LTFs • 4H structure is clean and bullish — momentum’s been steady, and the market looks ready to ride higher going into next week. • 2H gives clarity — I’m watching for a sweep of SSL into OB to set the stage for LTF confirmation. • Entry process remains the same: wait for CHoCH, followed by sweep inside the OB zone. 🔹 Entry: After CHoCH + sweep inside OB (LTF process repeated) 🔹 Entry Zone: After confirmation within OB 🔹 Target: Structure highs — letting price unfold with the trend Mindset: Patience pays the most. Wait for the market to come to you, not the other way around. Bless Trading!
Long
by Juicemannn
EURUSD 30Min Engaged ( Bullish Entry Detected )➕ Objective: Precision Volume Execution Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout 🩸 Bullish Wave Coming From : 1.17400 ➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority ➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected. The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size. Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation. 🔥 Tactical Note: We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention. The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute. EURUSD 30Min Engaged ( Bullish Entry Detected )
Long
by Path_Of_Hanzo
1
Impulse completed?EUR/USD maintains its bullish trend intact after a sharp rally last week. The pair keeps consolidating gains as the 4-hour Relative Strength Index pulls back from overbought levels and price action is constrained within a 70-pip range, right below a nearly four-year high at 1.1750. Today, price hit upside target at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level of the June 10-12 rally at 1.1795. I Think we might see a correction for the eurusd as the impulse seems to be completed.
by TRADINGACPVIP
How to Trade the Forex Market on Memorial & Independence days?Trading the foreign exchange (Forex) market on major U.S. holidays like Memorial Day (May 29th) and Independence Day (July 4th) presents a unique set of challenges and requires a strategic shift from typical trading days. While the global Forex market remains technically open 24/5, the closure of U.S. banks and financial institutions leads to significantly reduced liquidity and trading volume, altering the market landscape. Here’s a comprehensive guide on how to approach Forex trading on these holidays: Understanding the Market Conditions: The "Quiet" Danger The primary characteristic of Forex trading on U.S. holidays is a sharp drop in liquidity, especially in currency pairs involving the U.S. dollar (USD). With American traders and institutions away from their desks, the volume of transactions plummets. This "quiet" market environment can be deceptive and carries specific risks: Wider Spreads: With fewer market participants, the difference between the bid and ask prices for currency pairs tends to increase. This makes it more expensive to enter and exit trades, eating into potential profits. Increased Volatility and Spikes: Don't mistake low volume for a flat market. With a thin order book, even moderately sized orders can cause sharp, sudden price movements or "spikes." These moves can be unpredictable and may not follow typical technical patterns. Price Gaps and Slippage: The reduced liquidity can lead to price gaps, where the market jumps from one price to another without trading at the levels in between. This increases the risk of slippage, where your order is executed at a less favorable price than intended. Ineffectiveness of Some Strategies: Strategies that rely on high volume and momentum, such as breakout trading, are more likely to fail. A perceived breakout may lack the follow-through to become a sustained trend. Strategic Approaches for Trading on Memorial Day and July 4th Given the unique market conditions, traders should adopt a cautious and well-considered approach. Here are several strategies to consider: 1. The Prudent Approach: Step Aside For many traders, particularly novices, the most sensible strategy is to avoid trading altogether on these holidays. The increased risks and unpredictable market behavior can easily lead to unnecessary losses. Consider these days as an opportunity to study the markets, refine your overall trading plan, or simply take a break. 2. Trade with Reduced Size and Realistic Expectations If you do choose to trade, it is crucial to adjust your risk management: Lower Your Position Sizes: This is the most critical adjustment. Trading with smaller lots will mitigate the potential impact of sudden price spikes and wider spreads. Adjust Profit Targets and Stop-Losses: Be realistic about potential gains. The market may not have the momentum for large moves. Consider setting smaller profit targets. At the same time, be mindful that tighter stop-losses can be easily triggered by short-term volatility. 3. Focus on Non-USD Currency Pairs Since the holidays are U.S.-based, currency pairs that do not involve the U.S. dollar may be less affected, although a general decrease in global liquidity is still expected. Cross-currency pairs such as EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, or AUD/NZD might exhibit more "normal" behavior than majors like EUR/USD or USD/JPY. However, remain vigilant for lower-than-usual volume across the board. 4. Employ Range-Bound Strategies In low-liquidity environments, currencies often trade within a defined range. Strategies that capitalize on this behavior can be more effective than trend-following approaches. Look for well-established support and resistance levels and consider trading the bounces off these levels. 5. Be Wary of News from Other Regions While the U.S. market is quiet, significant economic data or geopolitical news from other regions (Europe, Asia) can still impact the market. With low liquidity, the reaction to such news can be exaggerated. Stay informed about the global economic calendar. A Day-by-Day Look Memorial Day (Last Monday of May): This is a major U.S. holiday, and its impact will be felt throughout the 24-hour trading period. Expect very thin liquidity during the Asian and European sessions, which will worsen significantly during what would typically be the busy New York session. Independence Day (July 4th): The impact of July 4th can sometimes extend beyond the day itself. Often, the trading day before (July 3rd) will also see reduced volume as traders close positions ahead of the holiday. On July 4th, expect market conditions similar to Memorial Day, with a significant drop in activity and the associated risks. In conclusion, while the allure of a 24-hour market is a key feature of Forex, wisdom lies in recognizing when not to trade with your usual strategy and size. Approaching U.S. holidays like Memorial Day and Independence Day with caution, a revised strategy, and a keen awareness of the risks is paramount for preserving your trading capital. For most, these are days best spent on the sidelines. Navid Jafarian
Education
by Navid_Jafarian
18
HelenP. I Euro may soon reverse and test support near $1.1655Hi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. If we look at the chart, EURUSD has been climbing steadily within an uptrend, bouncing multiple times from the trend line and making higher highs. However, despite the recent bullish structure, the pair is now showing signs of slowing momentum. The price is approaching a possible turning point near the top, and the latest candles show hesitation. Now the pair is trading near 1.1790 and still staying above the trend line, but I believe it may rise a bit more and then break down below the trend line. Once this structure is broken, I expect sellers to take control and push EURUSD toward the nearest support zone between 1.1655 and 1.1630 points. This zone acted as a key level in the past and may serve as the next area of interest for buyers. Given the extended movement and potential loss of bullish pressure, I remain bearish and expect EURUSD to move down to retest support. The level of 1.1655 is my current goal. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️ Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Short
by FirstNameHelen
4
Euro-dollar retreats from $1.18Euro-dollar’s uptrend which has lasted fairly consistently since the start of 2025 continued in June with the price reaching a fresh four-year high above $1.18 on 1 July. Less confidence in the USA as the government continues to flip-flop and contradict on tariffs has driven capital out of the dollar. Monetary policy in the eurozone might stabilise with majority expectations pointing to only one more cut by the ECB this year while CME FedWatch suggests an 80% probability of at least two cuts by the Fed before the end of 2025. Low volume and clear overbought conditions might point to a pause in the uptrend soon, but selling demand also seems to be limited as seen from the relatively long tails of recent candlesticks. The 23.6% monthly Fibonacci retracement is slightly above the top of this chart around $1.1885. The 38.2% Fibo around $1.166 is a possible area of support. This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
by Michael_Stark_Exness
EURUSD A Fall Expected! SELL! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for EURUSD is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.1784 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 1.1667 My Stop Loss - 1.1853 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
EURO - After movement up, price will drop to support lineHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Recently price started to grow inside a rising channel, where it some time traded below the support area and soon bounced up. Price broke $1.1455 level and rose to the resistance line of the channel, after which it turned around and made correction movement. Next, price some time traded near $1.1455 level and then bounced and continued to move up inside the channel. In a short time Euro rose to $1.1700 level, which coincided with a support area, and some time trades between this level. Then the price broke this level and continued to move up, until it almost reached the resistance line of the channel and started to fall. Now, I think the Euro can rise a little and then continue to fall to $1.1610 support line of the channel, breaking $1.1700 level. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️ Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Short
by WalterMoon
14
#AN015: TRUMP-PUTIN Phone Call and July 4th, Markets Closed In an unexpected phone call on the sidelines of the American Independence Day, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump – in the midst of the campaign for his potential re-election – had a confidential conversation that quickly captured the attention of global markets, even on a day when Wall Street was closed. Hello, I am Trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about the latest news of these hours. I would like to thank in advance our Official Broker Partner PEPPERSTONE for the support in creating this article. 📉 Wall Street closed, but Forex is always open While the US stock markets remain closed for the July 4th holiday, the currency market – by its nature decentralized and global – never stops completely. And it is precisely in these moments of low liquidity that geopolitical moves can have an amplified impact. ☎️ What did Putin and Trump say to each other? Official sources speak of a “cordial discussion” on global security issues, Ukraine, and the future of US-Russia energy relations. However, according to leaks from Moscow, Putin has expressed openness to a new energy negotiation in the event of Trump’s return to the White House. Translated into Forex language? This could mean: Lower geopolitical risk on USD in the long term (Trump is seen as more in favor of dialogue with Moscow) Pressure on Euro if negotiations with Russia are diverted to a Washington-Moscow axis Temporary strength of RUB in case of glimmers of easing of energy sanctions 📊 Impact on key currency crosses Comparing the post-news movements on some crosses: USD/RUB: flat for now, but ready to jump over the weekend if confirmations arrive EUR/USD: latent weakness, also due to the decline in ISM and the resilience of European inflation USD/JPY: stable, but with pro-dollar sentiment in the background (Trump is perceived as economically dovish) ⏱️ What to expect in the next 24 hours? With liquidity recovering already since tonight (Tokyo), markets could start to price in the geopolitical narrative of Trump's return. This scenario favors: USD slightly stronger in the short term Watch out for false breakouts on low volatility (typical of July 4th)
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
EU may stop rising soon. Closes to W1 downtrend!1. Key points for reversal coming: The bullish wave on the weekly (W1) timeframe has been rising for quite a long time and has extended significantly. It is approaching the downtrend zone on the weekly/monthly (W1/MN) chart. There is a twisted Kumo top in the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating potential indecision or reversal. The current structure may be forming the right shoulder of a Quasimodo pattern. The TDI (Traders Dynamic Index) momentum indicator is showing a strong overbought condition. 2. Plan: Sell around 1.1950!
Short
by Bighandle
3
EURUSD 4H Structure Analysis | MMC Strategy + Channel + CurveIn this EURUSD 4-hour chart analysis using MMC (Market Mind Concept), we are observing a textbook rising channel structure accompanied by a black mind curve (evidence of psychological support behavior). Let's break it down: 📊 Structure Overview: Straight Ascending Channel: Price has been respecting a clean, straight rising channel, forming higher highs and higher lows over the past several weeks. This structure provides a controlled bullish bias, but we are approaching an inflection point. Black Mind Curve Support (Evidence 2): A curved trendline (Mind Curve) is providing dynamic support. This curve intersects with the lower boundary of the rising channel—creating a confluence zone, which is likely to act as strong short-term support or the base of a reversal. Major BOS (Break of Structure): A significant bullish BOS occurred earlier, confirming momentum strength. This previous break is acting as a reference point for bullish continuation scenarios. 📉 Bearish Scenario: If the price breaks below the channel and mind curve support, this would invalidate the current bullish channel structure. A clean breakout + retest below the support zone may invite strong selling pressure, targeting previous support zones around 1.1500 – 1.1350. 📈 Bullish Scenario: If the price holds above the mind curve and continues upward, we may see a breakout above the top of the channel. A confirmed breakout could send price toward the 1.1900 – 1.2000 resistance zone. Patience is key—wait for a confirmed breakout from the channel (either side) before engaging. ⏳ Strategy Outlook: ✅ Wait for channel breakout confirmation (up or down) ⚠️ Watch for fakeouts or liquidity grabs near channel boundaries 🔁 Mind Curve Support adds another layer of decision-making structure 🧠 Trade with the trend, but remain adaptable to shift if channel breaks 🔍 Summary: The EURUSD pair is in a decision-making zone—either we get a bullish continuation breakout, or the structure fails and we flip into a bearish correction. The confluence of the straight channel and mind curve makes this setup high-quality for both trend traders and breakout traders.
by GoldMasterTrades