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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EURUSD OUTLOOK 8 - 11 JULYNFP and unemployment rate came out bullish for the dollar which caused that big push to the down side. The job market is still holding well thus we are less likely to see the FED cut rates. Other economic data is still showing that the dollar is weaker against the euro so I'm not going to change my direction bias just yet. Technical analysis also clearly shows that we are still bullish on EURUSD. We don't have much fundamental data coming out this week so I'm anticipating price to continue lower to give a deeper pullback off of last weeks data, Then next week depending how CPI, PPI and Retails sales go we will get a clearer picture on how to trade the pair. Last week's 4H outlook is still valid and is more useful when looking to execute trades. This daily Analysis just gives the bigger picture for more of a swing setup analysis
Long
by Keyserfx
1
Negative Risk/Reward: Hidden Edge or Hidden Danger?It’s a topic that sparks plenty of debate. 👉 Can a negative risk/reward ratio actually be part of a winning strategy? Here’s our take, split between intraday trading and swing trading: 📉 Intraday Trading ☑️ Pros: • Can work in high‑probability setups (mean‑reversion, range scalps) • Quick targets often get hit before stops • Stops can sit beyond liquidity grabs to protect the trade ⚠️ Cons: • Needs a consistently high win rate • Prone to slippage and fast spikes • Can lead to over‑trading if discipline slips If used, risk must always be pre‑defined — not adjusted mid‑trade. ⏳ Swing Trading ☑️ Pros: • Occasionally helps avoid being stopped on deeper pullbacks • Gives breathing room in trending markets ⚠️ Cons: • Smaller targets vs bigger stops rarely pay off over time • Lower win rate on higher timeframes makes it hard to sustain • Exposed to news gaps & weekend risk Overall, swing trading works best with positive R/R setups (e.g., 2:1 or higher). ☑️ Summary: Negative R/R can work — but only if: • The setup is statistically proven & high probability • You keep risk strictly pre‑defined • It fits the pair, timeframe & volatility Most traders are better off sticking to positive R/R — but for experienced scalpers, negative R/R can be a tool rather than a trap. 💭 Do you use negative risk/reward in your strategy? Only intraday, or do you apply it to swing trades too? Drop your thoughts below —we're curious to hear how others approach it! 👇 Thanks again for the likes, boosts, and follows — really appreciate the support! Trade safe and all the best for the week ahead! BluetonaFX
Education
by BluetonaFX
EUR/USD Holds Above Key Support — Outlook IntactHi Everyone, Price briefly dipped below the 1.16680 support, but our broader outlook remains unchanged as long as it continues to hold above the key 1.16450 level. Should buyers successfully defend the 1.16450 zone, we still see potential for the pair to stabilise and make another attempt higher in the coming sessions. We’ll be monitoring price action closely to see if support continues to hold and whether momentum starts to build back to the upside. We maintain the view that a decisive break above last week’s high could attract additional buyers, paving the way for a move towards the 1.19290 level and ultimately the 1.20000 level. We’ll share further updates on the projected path for EUR/USD if price breaks above this key resistance. The longer-term outlook remains bullish, with expectations for the rally to extend towards the 1.2000 level, provided the price holds above the key support at 1.10649. We will continue to update you throughout the week with how we’re managing our active ideas and positions. Thanks again for all the likes/boosts, comments and follows — we appreciate the support! All the best for a good end to the week. Trade safe. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
EUR/USD Could Take Off From Here! Strategic SetupHi traders! , Analyzing EUR/USD on the 30 minute timeframe, price is currently reacting from a strong support zone near 1.1696, showing potential for a bullish rebound after a sharp drop. 🔹 Entry: 1.1696 🔹 Take Profit (TP): 1.1770 🔹 Stop Loss (SL): 1.1621 After a strong downside move, EUR/USD is attempting a recovery from a key intraday support area. The RSI is bouncing from oversold conditions (around 34), indicating a possible short-term shift in momentum. Price is also approaching the 200 EMA from below, and a break above could confirm bullish continuation toward the 1.1770 resistance zone. The setup offers a solid risk-reward ratio and aligns with mean reversion expectations. ⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. Every trader is responsible for their own decisions and risk management.
Long
by FXOnTop
EURUSD Short, 08 JulyHTF Bearish Continuation & Intraday Confirmation HTF bias remains bearish, reacting from W/D OB and completing the daily imbalance left from yesterday. Now looking for continuation lower, supported by a clean 4H OB. 📉 Confluence: 15m Decisional OB in play 5m OB entry zone with a clean 1m BOS DXY gap + imbalance still open in our favor + Correlation between EU and DXY Asia session structure aligned 🎯 Entry: Retest of 5m OB after 1m BOS 🛡️ SL: Above recent high, ~10 pips 📌 TP: Asia low – 1:3 RR ⚠️ Risk: OB is mid-Asia (less ideal), and DXY Daily imbalance not filled yet Still a solid setup with structure + HTF narrative backing it.
Short
by sTax11
10