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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EURUSD: Bears Are Winning! Short! My dear friends, Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 1.16557 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 1.16419..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Short
by FreeXauusdSignals
EURUSD / Euro – U.S. Dollar (4H) – ABC Bullish Structure EURUSD / Euro – U.S. Dollar (4H) – ABC Bullish Structure with Double Bottom Base Pattern Overview: Pattern Type: ABC Bullish + Corrective Double Bottom Asset: EURUSD Timeframe: 4H Trade Type: Bullish Bias – Monitoring for continuation after rejection from cluster support 🔎 Key Levels XA: 1.14663 → 1.18299 AB: 1.18299 → 1.16292 BC: 1.16292 → 1.17216 CD: Completion just under 1.15621 cluster Major Fib Cluster: 0.707% XA, 0.886 AB, 50% CD, Prior Horizontal Support Zone 📐 Fibonacci Extensions & Key Ratios 38.2% retracement: 1.16180 50.0% retracement: 1.15750 161.8% extension: 1.18150 💡 Price Action & Setup Price has completed an ABC corrective leg, forming a clean double bottom at the D point, hovering over the fib-rich support cluster. The rejection candle shows buyer interest, and the recent higher low structure implies potential for continuation, especially if price reclaims and holds above 1.1650 short-term structure. 🧠 Market Sentiment DXY easing slightly after strong dollar dominance EUR macro calendar quiet – technicals may dominate next moves Strong base = smart money accumulation likely underway 📊 Next Potential Movement Break above 1.1675 opens path toward 1.1720, then possibly 1.1815 If 1.1575 cluster fails → risk of full XA retracement 🛡 Risk Management Aggressive long entries already in play Conservative entries should wait for higher low confirmation above 1.1650 Protective stop: under 1.1550 zone 📌 Conclusion This is a bullish structure with a corrective double bottom base sitting right inside a dense confluence zone. Price is compressing between key fibs – expect a directional move next week. Keep your eye on the 1.1675 breakout or 1.1570 loss for next major decision. “In the densest zones of indecision, patterns and confluence provide the clearest map.”
Long
by TradeChartPatternsLikeThePros
EUR/USD Drops to $1.16 Amid Strong U.S. DataThe euro declined to $1.16 on Thursday, reaching its lowest level in almost a month as the U.S. dollar regained strength. The dollar’s rise followed solid U.S. inflation data and President Trump’s comments suggesting he will keep Fed Chair Jerome Powell in place, reducing expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, markets continued to monitor U.S.-EU trade negotiations ahead of the August 1 deadline. Resistance for the pair is at 1.1670, while support is at 1.1580.
by ChartMage
EURUSD(20250718) Today's AnalysisMarket news: ① Kugler: It is appropriate to keep the interest rate policy stable for "a while". ② Daly: Whether to cut interest rates in July or September is not the most critical. ③ Bostic: It may be difficult to cut interest rates in the short term. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 1.1597 Support and resistance levels: 1.1683 1.1651 1.1630 1.1565 1.1544 1.1512 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 1.1630, consider buying in, the first target price is 1.1651 If the price breaks through 1.1597, consider selling in, the first target price is 1.1565
by NicolaZhu
EUR/USD long: The Fed Chair debacle is getting spicyHello traders My previous EUR/USD long did not pan out but I am swinging again. My entry order at 1.0563 was filled by the skinny skin of my teeth but so far so good. I'll use a trailing stop for this trade. The pressure on Fed Chair Powell is being ramped up by Trump's attack dogs with allegations of mismanaging Federal funds(gasp :) ) during the FOMC headquarters. We all saw the result of the rumor that Powell was fired/is considering resigning yesterday and as much as I am sure it pained DJT, he had to refute the rumor, no doubt on advice from Bessent. In addition, FOMC board member Waller publicly dissented today and suggested a rate cut at the July meeting. On the economic calendar we have the ECB rate decision, JOLTS, ADP and finally FOMC over the next two weeks. This is purely a technical play but I am keeping a close eye on the bond markets, the CME FedWatch tool and as for trade and tariffs, who cares... I mentioned the Federal Court of Appeals case regarding the IEEPA court decision starting on 7/31/2025. For anyone interested in the court's decision, www.cafc.uscourts.gov More importantly, you can sign up for a notification at courtlistener.com which is a free service. I have used it in the past and not only is it free but I also received the notification in a very timely manner. www.courtlistener.com Best of luck.
Long
by jvrfxalerts
LONG for EURUSD?LONG EURUSD What is going on with EURUSD We see how beautiful the market went up from the beginning of the trend line constatly with pullbacks that means a steady uptrend not really the urge that the market want to go back. We used the fib as always to indicate 61.8% perfect pullback on that and as we see on the resistance that has to be tested. There will be a fake break out of 100-150 pips. If we go back on the RSI we see divergence momentum is back to average. We call this hidden divergence price goes up and indicator goes down. What indicates us that we also have new space for a higher high. Targets we have in mind 1.19035 with high momentum what I expect it will hit the 1.20274 , important to have in mind 1.20000 is a key level price wants to go there as a magnet. Reverse of the analyses: If it breaks the 61.8% it will retest the market structure and goes to the 1.13544 with high momentum just to test price and set us offside because that is what the market want hit as many stop losses because that’s where the liquidity is build up, takes out and will continue the uptrend. Follow my journey I try to post daily. Markets I analyse XAUUSD, EURUSD, USDMXN, XTIUSD, XRPUSD, BTCUSD. Will start more forex and Crypto soon.
Long
by JSth3Kid
Trade Setup: EUR/USD 15min | OB Mitigation Play⚙️ Type: Countertrend (Risk-managed Buy) Direction: Long Entry Zone: 1.15850–1.15886 (Refined OB) Entry Type: Buy Limit Stop Loss: Below the OB low → 1.15790 Take Profit Targets: TP1: 1.16043 (minor imbalance fill) TP2: 1.16140 (supply zone re-test / 50% fib) Risk to Reward: ~1:3 minimum (depending on fill and management) 🎯 Why This Setup Works Price swept sell-side liquidity into a refined OB from the CPI move. Confluence with 0.786 retracement, suggesting algo entry interest. Strong momentum imbalance above gives room for retracement pullback. DXY showing signs of short-term exhaustion at intraday highs. 🔒 Invalidation Criteria 15m candle close below 1.15790 Clean break and hold of OB low → Flip bias bearish
Long
by sam_trades_smc
Euro-dollar pushes below $1.16 for nowThe announcement of 30% American tariffs on the EU from 1 August caused some negativity on the prospects for the bloc’s economy, but as with any similar announcement so far this year it’s likely that the figure can be negotiated down or just backtracked by the American government. A more immediate important factor driving euro-dollar down has been the significant rise in American annual headline inflation in June to 2.7%. The ECB is likely to cut once more this year and the Fed twice, but there’s some intrigue on the timing of the latter. The retreat from the area of $1.18 – a high of nearly four years – has so far been fairly consistent with some momentum. However, $1.16 still seems to be an important battleground, with the long wick on 16 July indicating buying pressure. With the price currently oversold and there not being a clear uptick in selling volume, the 50 SMA around $1.155 might be an important short-term dynamic support. A move back up to the 38.2% monthly Fibonacci retracement around $1.166 seems possible in the next few days depending on the volume of buying and reactions to upcoming news. For now, the movement seems more like a relatively small retracement in the context of the uptrend than the beginning of a new downward or sideways trend, but this depends on the reaction to the ECB’s meeting on 24 July as well. This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
by Michael_Stark_Exness
Eurousd techinical analysis.This chart shows a technical analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair on a 2-hour timeframe. Let's break down the elements and implications: --- Key Chart Elements: Current Price: 1.15988 Bullish Move Expected: A potential price increase of 0.00574 (0.50%), targeting 1.16385 around 21:00 on July 17, 2025. This is indicated by the curved arrow pointing upwards and the blue box highlighting a projected move. FVG (Fair Value Gap): This zone often represents inefficiencies in the market where price might return to fill the gap. There's a visible FVG around the current action zone. O.B (Order Block):
Long
by Rickypher
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 17, 2025 EURUSDThe euro is edging back toward the 1.16 – 1.17 range highs after headlines suggesting former U.S. president Donald Trump might try to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell and a softer-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) print pressured the dollar. Political noise around the Fed’s independence, coupled with a cooling inflation pulse, has pushed market pricing toward a longer policy pause; the pair is hovering near 1.16250 at the time of writing. Fundamental support also stems from the upcoming 24 July ECB meeting. Governing-Council commentary reveals a split between hawks and would-be doves, yet consensus that euro-area inflation remains above target makes an aggressive rate cut unlikely for now. Meanwhile, subdued U.S. Treasury yields—futures price a 95 % probability of no change this month and only 50 bp of total easing over 12 months—help narrow the U.S.–German 10-year spread to about 150 bp. Against a backdrop of ongoing U.S. trade tensions and steady inflows into euro-area assets, that narrower spread leaves room for EURUSD to grind toward the 1.1680 target if sentiment stays risk-positive. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.16250, SL 1.15950, TP 1.16800
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004