continue example 1 how to identify direction of the marketeurussd replicated on w d 4 Today 1220254
join the bullies
USDEUX trade ideas
direction example 1 finding directionbullish mostly
market reading saturday 12 25
2 ways to identify which direction its going
EUR/USD Possible scenarios weekly/daily/4h chart.Possible scenario for EUR/USD based on Weekly-Daily-4h technical and fundamental analyses.
EUR/USD Falling Wedges Forming. Breakout Expected?Hello Traders,
Falling wedges can be seen in Eurusd chart and price is expected to breakout.
Wait for the price to break 1.17229 to go long or if it breaks below 1.1629 consider short.
This analysis is solely based on chart patterns and some indicators like MACD, RSI and Moving Averages.
Euro DollaroThe Euro is close to resistance, represented by the bullish equilibrium orbit in the 1.192 area. A break of the resistance would project prices to the 1.22 area to be realised by 25/08/2025.
EURUSD Trading Opportunity! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the EURUSD next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.1689
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 1.1748
My Stop Loss - 1.1659
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
HTF analysis for EurUsdFollowing simple Ict concepts, we can see that EU has respected the higher time frames PD array.
Following the trend as price seems to be "drawn" to premium towards the D1 FVG area.
we can expect to see price fill that PD array around the 1.20800 area
EU - Shorts into Longs📊 EURUSD 15min – Reversal Both Ways: Sell the Top, Buy the Bottom
🔄 Complete Cycle Coverage | Precision Short & Long | Real-Time Edge
This EURUSD chart is a textbook example of how the ELFIEDT RSI + Reversion system captures both ends of the market — printing a clean DOWN signal at the high, followed by multiple stacked UP signals at the low.
🔻 High-Precision Short Signal
At the early session high, a lone DOWN signal was printed at 01:45 — just as price peaked before entering a persistent downtrend.
🔹 Hypothetical Trade Idea:
Entry: Short at the close of the red DOWN candle
Stop-loss: Just above the signal candle’s high
Reward: Price dropped more than 60 pips before stabilizing
🟢 Strong Bottom Reversal with Triple Confirmation
After the sustained decline, the indicator printed three consecutive UP signals starting around 15:00 — catching the bottom of the selloff with minimal further downside.
🔹 Hypothetical Trade Idea:
Entry: After the last UP signal prints (aggressive traders could scale in earlier)
Stop-loss: Below the signal wick
Reward: Immediate reversal led to a steady move up into the next session
This setup offered a second high-probability opportunity, demonstrating the system’s strength in both directions.
🧠 What This Shows
The ELFIEDT system isn’t reactive. It pre-empts exhaustion, spotting the true shift in sentiment before traditional indicators catch on.
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This is a basic public version of the ELFIEDT RSI + Reversion engine.
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Rejection from Supply Zone, Bearish Continuation Toward PDLAfter failing to break out with strength and confirm the demand zone, EUR/USD is showing signs of a bearish continuation. The price was rejected from the Demand Zone near the NY High, indicating a possible shift in momentum.
This setup suggests the pair may continue its downward trend, aiming for the Previous Day Low (PDL) around 1.16620. With a favorable risk-to-reward ratio of 1:5, this move could present a clean and high-probability short opportunity as long as bearish structure holds.
EURUSD: Bulls Are Winning! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 1.16915 Therefore, a strong bullish reaction here could determine the next move up.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 1.17015.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURUSD: Decision Time at Major Channel SupportToday we're looking at the EURUSD on the 4-hour timeframe, which presents a very clear and actionable technical setup. Price has been trading within a well-defined ascending channel since April. This channel has provided a reliable framework for the prevailing uptrend, with the green bands acting as dynamic support and the red band as resistance.
The Current Situation:
After a strong rejection from the top of the channel (red resistance zone) around the 1.1850 area, the price has entered a corrective phase. We are now approaching a critical inflection point where multiple support factors converge.
Primary Support: The lower boundary of the main ascending channel (green zone). This is the backbone of the entire bullish structure.
Horizontal Support: The purple zone around 1.1600-1.1625, which previously acted as resistance, is now a potential support floor.
Short-Term Resistance: A minor descending trendline is capping the immediate price action, forming a small wedge or triangle pattern.
The Bullish Scenario:
The dominant trend is up. Therefore, the primary thesis is to look for a bullish continuation. A long entry becomes compelling if we see the price hold at the confluence of the ascending channel support and the horizontal purple zone. A definitive bounce from this area, confirmed by a break and close above the short-term descending trendline, would be the trigger.
Initial Target: A retest of the recent highs around 1.1800.
Ultimate Target: A push towards the upper boundary of the ascending channel.
The Bearish Invalidation:
This bullish outlook becomes invalid if sellers manage to force a decisive 4-hour close below the ascending channel's support line. A break of this magnitude would negate the multi-month uptrend structure, signaling a significant shift in market sentiment and likely initiating a deeper sell-off.
Conclusion:
EURUSD is at a crossroads. The structure is clean, and the levels are well-defined. The bias remains bullish as long as the price respects the established channel. Watch the 1.1600-1.1650 support area for signs of a bounce. A break below this critical zone would warrant a shift to a bearish perspective.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
#AN019: Digital Currencies (CBDCs) Will Change Forex
How the world of official digital currencies (CBDCs) is already impacting Forex, opening up new opportunities rarely considered elsewhere. Hello, I'm Forex Trader Andrea Russo.
On the one hand, Shanghai is evaluating countermeasures against stablecoins and cryptocurrencies, including yuan-backed currencies, while China is moving closer to a reasonable transition to its own "soft" stablecoin, after years of restrictions on crypto trading. On the other, Pakistan is launching a pilot CBDC, aligning itself with a momentous shift: it is now shaping its own digital monetary system, with direct impacts on inflation, reserves, and currency pairs.
These initiatives are not isolated. They are part of a global phenomenon: over 130 central banks are studying or testing CBDCs, with Europe, China, and the Middle East at the forefront. American hostility (e.g., the ban on digital dollars) risks pushing others to consolidate their own digital currencies as a geopolitical and financial shield.
In Forex, these developments could generate repercussions even in the short term:
EUR/CNY or INR exchange rate: Retail and wholesale CBDCs will facilitate direct trade, reducing dependence on the dollar, and potentially giving rise to new flows in Asian crosses.
Reduced cross-border costs and times: Systems like mBridge (China, Hong Kong, Thailand, UAE, Saudi Arabia) will allow instant transactions and cross-border digital currencies, breaking down SWIFT's dominance and encouraging lower demand for USD payments.
New interest rate paradigm: CBDCs may include fixed interest rates, creating competitive pressure on swaps and futures, and forcing traditional central banks to clarify their strategies.
Digital Safe Havens: If EUR or CNY become globally interoperable, new forms of safe haven currencies could emerge, impacting crosses such as EUR/USD, USD/CNY, and INR/USD.
Actional conclusion for Forex traders:
We will soon enter uncharted territory: it will not just be a matter of evaluating central banks and SMEs, but also of understanding if and when official digital payment systems will have a real impact on currency routes.
For those who want to anticipate flows:
Monitor CBDC pilots in Asia and the Middle East.
Keep an eye on retail adoption in the BRICS countries: in the coming quarters, we could see direct flows from USD to digital CNY, INR, and AED.
Evaluate potential longs on digital-friendly crosses (e.g., USD/INR digital) and shorts on USD linked to interest in stablecoins.
Forex is entering its new digital era: the question is only one: are you ready to navigate it?
The Day AheadFriday, July 11 – Key Economic Data Summary:
US: June federal budget balance will shed light on fiscal health. A wider deficit may raise debt concerns and impact bond markets.
UK: May monthly GDP is crucial for gauging recession risk. Weak growth could pressure the pound and fuel rate cut expectations.
Germany: June wholesale prices and May current account data will influence ECB policy views and Euro sentiment. Falling prices support easing; a lower surplus signals trade weakness.
Canada: June jobs report and May building permits highlight labor and housing trends. Strong jobs may delay rate cuts; weak permits suggest housing softness.
Market Focus: Currency and bond market volatility likely, especially in GBP, CAD, and EUR, with equities reacting to growth signals.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
With EUR/USD at 1.20, is Europe at risk of collapse? With EUR/USD at 1.20, is Europe at risk of collapse?
EUR/USD surpassed $1.175, reaching levels last seen in August 2021, following news of a US proposal to the EU regarding a trade agreement. The proposal provides for the maintenance of a 10% base tariff with exemptions for certain sectors, including aeronautics and alcohol.
Washington has not provided details regarding possible exemptions for other sectors such as automobiles, steel, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals, as requested by the EU. The European Union aims to reach a preliminary agreement with the United States by the end of the week to maintain the 10% tariff beyond the August 1 deadline, while negotiations for a permanent agreement continue.
Meanwhile, the European Union has announced its intention to introduce compensatory tariffs on a selection of US products in response to US tariffs on metals. European authorities have also signaled that, if no agreement is reached, further measures could be implemented, including export controls and restrictions on US companies' access to public procurement. In terms of monetary policy, market operators are discounting the possibility of only one further rate cut by the ECB before the end of the year.
Following a period of marked acceleration, the inflation rate in the Eurozone has aligned with the 2% target. According to preliminary estimates provided by Eurostat, the core index—which excludes food and energy components—also remains stable at 2.3%, reinforcing evidence of a decline in overall inflationary pressures. However, tensions remain in the services and food sectors, where persistent price increases are still being observed.
Inflation in the services sector rose by 3.3% in June, while food prices continue to be one of the main factors putting pressure on household budgets. Consumers' perception of inflation remains significantly higher than official figures: suffice it to say that the average inflation perceived by European consumers has been stable at 3.1% for several months. This gap contributes to social dissatisfaction and undermines confidence in the economic policies adopted.
At the same time, the European Central Bank is maintaining a cautious stance. Although short-term inflation expectations are declining, analysts consider a further rate cut at the next meeting in July unlikely. The central bank aims to avoid a premature rise in demand that could translate into further price increases, especially in light of the persistent geopolitical uncertainties affecting energy markets.
In summary, although the stabilization of inflation is a significant achievement, it remains fragile and subject to exogenous variables that are difficult to control, such as energy prices, which are heavily influenced by geopolitical balances. Furthermore, this stabilization does not appear sufficient to stimulate economic recovery in a context characterized by clear signs of weakness.
The exchange rate is now approaching 1.20, and it is important to analyze the potential consequences of such a high rate.
The appreciation of the euro is another critical factor: the strengthening of the single currency against the dollar is causing concern.
An exchange rate of up to USD 1.20 remains manageable; however, an appreciation beyond that level could put significant pressure on the European economy.
An excessively strong euro penalizes exports, reducing the competitiveness of European companies on international markets. This dynamic exacerbates the difficulties already encountered by the manufacturing sector, which continues to operate below the expansion threshold: for example, the PMI index remains below 50 points in many key economies, including Italy and France, indicating a phase of contraction. Only Spain is showing moderate growth.
In light of the weakness of the dollar and the continued strengthening of the euro, a reallocation of investments is expected, with an increase in exposure to US markets and a simultaneous reduction in the weight of European stocks in the portfolio.
Currently, I hold open long positions in the following stocks: CODEXIS, PALISADE, RMS, AZO, HYMC, and INTU.
#AN018: Summer shock, tariffs, Fed delays, and the dollar's shif
In recent days, the forex world has experienced a sequence of key events that could redefine the global currency landscape in the coming months. Risk to the dollar has become structural, the threat of tariffs is multiplying again, and the combination of geopolitical uncertainty and monetary policy creates an extremely risky mix for exchange rates.
Let's start with the Fed minutes: Jerome Powell attributed tariff risk to the main reason for postponing possible rate cuts. Market expectations are realigning toward a longer rate cycle, fueling a climate of global uncertainty. At the same time, Goldman Sachs warns that the dollar is increasingly moving as a "risky" currency, correlated with equity markets—an emerging market rather than a safe haven.
On the geopolitical front, President Trump has relaunched the trade war: announcements of tariffs of up to 35% on Canada, up to 20% on Europe, and 50% on copper from Brazil have caused futures volatility to soar and sent the dollar into a short-term rally. But Deutsche Bank is sounding the alarm: the summer period of low liquidity and rising trade tensions represents a potential trigger for prolonged currency turbulence.
The Financial Times envisions a scenario in which the dollar loses ground as the dominant currency, ushering in a multipolar currency world in which the euro, renminbi, gold, and even cryptocurrencies could gain ground.
The impact on Forex:
USD: The narrative is changing: no longer a net safe haven, but an asset correlated with political and risk cycles. The weakness of the DXY index in the first half of 2025 (-10%) reflects this transition.
EUR/USD: Potentially favored if the dollar continues its consolidation. However, new tariffs and US-EU uncertainty could provide temporary support for the greenback.
USD/JPY and USD/CHF: These crosses will be subject to greater volatility, with the next catalyst being the Fed minutes and the timing of tariffs. Safe-haven currencies strengthen during periods of uncertainty.
CAD, AUD, NZD: penalized by tariffs on Canada and Brazil and a weak dollar. OPEC+ and geopolitical tensions could boost commodities, but data confirmation is needed.
Commodity cross-correlation: USD/CAD could rebound if oil loses momentum, while AUD/JPY is sensitive to both the RBA and increased global risk.
Conclusion:
The current currency environment appears unstable and sensitive to political and trade developments. Summer volatility could persist, and those who can read the macro and institutional signals (Fed, tariffs, geopolitics) will have the opportunity to enter accurately. Until a stable direction emerges, EUR/USD looks like the most interesting cross to capture a potential structural correction in the dollar.
EUR/USD Holding the Line: Bullish Channel Setup!Hi traders! Analyzing EUR/USD on the 30-min timeframe, price is currently reacting near the bottom of a well-defined ascending channel, signaling a potential bullish continuation within the trend:
🔹 Entry: 1.17071
🔹 Take Profit: 1.17423
🔹 Stop Loss: 1.16825
After a corrective move downwards, price tapped into a key trendline support, aligning with prior structure and psychological level near 1.1700. The RSI is showing a bullish divergence near oversold levels, adding confluence to a possible reversal.
As long as price holds above the lower boundary of the channel, bulls may look to target the mid-to-upper region of the range, aligning with previous highs and dynamic resistance.
🟢 The trend remains intact as long as higher lows are respected.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. Every trader is responsible for managing their own risk and strategy.
EURUSD 1D IDEAThis is the reason why we are so blindly short this pair while not looking at the HTF
For the 1W timeframe, it completed 61.8% pullback of the closed above 50% Fib heading to 38.1% or might be higher to 26%
But so far for the 1D TF, we can see will retest the fvg at 68.1% Pullback or even higher at 78%
We keep looking at 1H to 4H target but don't see the high time frame Fib. This cause a lot of people losing the money. So trade wisely, this is my 1D target, CHOCH is also confirmed in the Daily chart, it will heading back to 1.80 right now or even higher at 1.10.
However, if the price keep surpase 1.13, Week Fib will come into play
Goodluck
EUR/USD WEEKLY SWING (1H) Pull Back BEARISHThe weekly pull back level (orange line) is found on the (1H - 2H) trading view chart.
With the MT4 Chart reading small scalping action to the down side the intraday traders should switch to a bullish stance for the pullback and find reversal at the first major S&R Liquidation zone that broke the Support of the previous break of structure to the down side on the (4H - 1D) Chart
To maintain only taking a weekly swing risk place sells around the 1.17716 level
EUR/USD Correction Targets March Uptrend- Support in ViewThe Euro rally exhausted into uptrend resistance into the start of the month with EUR/USD threatening to snap a two-week winning streak at fresh yearly highs. Price has fallen more than 1% from the high and the near-term threat for a larger correction remains below the weekly open at 1.1775.
A break below the weekly opening-range today threatens further declines within this formation with initial support objective seen at the 1.618% extension / 2016 high at 1.1609/16 and the April high at 1.1573. Note that the April trendline converges on this threshold next week and a break / close below this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant high was registered last week / a larger reversal is underway- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent support rests with the 23.6% retracement of the yearly range at 1.1440.
Initial resistance is eyed with the 78.6% retracement of the 2021 decline at 1.1748 and is backed closely by the objective weekly / monthly open at 1.1775/87- we’ll reserve this threshold as our bearish invalidation levels with a breach above the upper parallel (currently near ~1.1830s) ultimately needed to mark uptrend resumption. Subsequent resistance eyed at the 100% extension of the 2022 advance at 1.1917 and the 1.618% extension of the January rally at 1.1990.
Bottom line: A reversal off uptrend resistance into the monthly open threatens a larger correction here in EUR/USD. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 1.1573 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the upper parallel needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.
-MB
Eurousd techinical analysis.This chart appears to show a technical analysis setup for the EUR/USD pair on a 1-hour timeframe. Here are the key elements and interpretation:
1. Support and Resistance Zones (Purple Boxes):
Support Zone: Around 1.1670 – 1.1680
Resistance Zones:
Minor: Around 1.1715 – 1.1720
Major: Around 1.1740 – 1.1750
2. Bullish Divergence:
There's a bullish divergence indicated by the blue trend lines: the price made a lower low while the indicator (likely RSI or MACD, not shown here) made a higher low. This is a signal of potential bullish reversal.
3. Expected Price Movement (Blue Arrows):
The analyst is predicting a bullish recovery from the support zone around 1.1670.
Price is expected to make a higher low, then move up towards the resistance near 1.1720.
4. Current Price:
Trading at **
EURUSDSentiment: Bullish Bias
Institutions are holding a strong net long position on the Euro, with +107,537 contracts. This reflects continued bullish sentiment toward EUR, suggesting strength against the USD. With DXY showing net shorts and EUR net longs, EUR/USD may favor upside moves, especially from key daily demand zones. Swing traders should watch for bullish confirmations and structure shifts on 4H.
