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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EURUSD BUYING AREA (EUR/USD Analysis): Pair: EUR/USD Timeframe: 4H (4-Hour) Current Price: 1.17660 Analysis Date: July 7, 2025 Chart mein clearly dikh raha hai ke price ne strong bullish rally ke baad resistance breakout kiya hai jo ab support zone ban chuka hai (marked in purple box around 1.15800 - 1.16300). Price ab expected hai ke thoda retrace kare aur phir is new support zone par bullish confirmation dikhaye. Wahan se price likely bounce karega towards a new target high. --- 🎯 Target & Trading Plan: 📍Support Zone (Buy Zone): 🔹 1.15800 – 1.16300 🔹 Look for bullish reversal pattern in this zone (e.g. bullish engulfing, double bottom) 🎯Target Point: 🔹 1.20000 🔹 This level is the next significant resistance and potential take-profit zone 📉Stop Loss (Risk Management): 🔹 Below 1.15500 🔹 Invalidation of bullish setup if price breaks below support --- ✅ Trade Setup Summary: Type Level Entry Zone 1.15800 - 1.16300 Stop Loss Below 1.15500 Take Profit 1.20000 Risk:Reward Approx. 1:3+
Long
by Mr_Andy1786
2
EURUSD- SHORT to SUPPORT (but I'm a BULL longterm)EURUSD- has seen a magnificant rise and long trend for several months since January. Watching for a pullback to the 21EMA and Daily support to take this long again. - At Monthly M3 -USD strength to resistance expected this week. -Bearish candle LL after 3 touches of Resistance and a LL. - the previous inside candle occurred on Friday but we did not make a HH or a LL. -On the hourly we are bearish, having broken support and restesting.- 1.1774 & 21 EMA. - Under 1.1717 price will turn bearish on daily. -Watching the next possible support level of 1.1763 as a level that may hold. Short-term bear target - 1.1623 - Support and Dly 21 EMA restest of channel bottom to take this long with confirmation.
Short
by gillianpatrice
EURUSD InsightHello to all our subscribers, Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don't forget to like and subscribe! Key Points - President Trump stated, “A letter will be sent on Monday, and it could be 12 countries, possibly even 15.” He added, “I think we’ll finalize negotiations with most countries by July 9 — either a letter or a deal.” - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besent said that “President Trump will send a letter stating that if negotiations with trade partners do not make real progress, tariff levels will revert to those announced on April 2, starting August 1.” - The legislative process for the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” centered on making Trump’s tax cuts permanent, was completed on July 4. The U.S. Treasury is expected to significantly increase the issuance of Treasury securities soon. Key Economic Events This Week + July 8: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision + July 9: Release of FOMC Meeting Minutes + July 10: Germany June Consumer Price Index (CPI) + July 11: United Kingdom May GDP EURUSD Chart Analysis The pair recently broke above the 1.18000 level and appears to be approaching key resistance near the highs. There still seems to be some room for further upside. If the upward move continues, the 1.19000 level is the most likely target for the next peak. However, if the trend reverses downward, a pullback to the 1.15000 level remains a possibility.
Long
by shawntime_academy
EURUSD H1 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H1 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 1.1778, a pullback resistance. Our take profit is set at 1.1758, an overlap support. The stop loss is set at 1.180, a swing high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
EUR/CAD: Long. Is this a "loonie" trade?Hello traders Clarification: CAD is also referred to as the loonie, a former Canadian one dollar coin. The 50 base point cut by the BoC was expected. The CAD strengthened against the USD and CAD immediately afterwards. Classic knee jerk reaction of buy the rumor, sell the news. Both EUR/CAD and EUR/USD have found support on the 4H chart. The EURO has been on the backfoot against the USD but with the ECB rate decision in less than 24 hours, I have taken a long EUR/CAD position. The ECB is expected to cut by 25 base points which will still give the CAD a slight advantage. However, the Canadian forward guidance points to more rate cuts to stimulate consumer spending, albeit more gradually/25 points at a time. This leaves the ECB's forward guidance to cement this idea. IF Ms. Lagarde once again expresses concern about inflation moving forward, the EURO may appreciate across the board. Fundamentally the Euro Zone needs this rate cut. The economic conditions are not great at the moment. That leaves the FOMC next week and also the BOJ to provide us with more forward guidance. Once this is out of the way, we'll have a much better idea what to expect in 2025, bar some more geopolitical unrest or other major market moving event. Best of luck, all. The EUR/JPY is also some upside promise but keep in mind, the JPY marches to its own drummer. DXY is also retreating
Long
by jvrfxalerts
3
EUR/USD – Smart Money Trap at 1.18? Massive Rejection Ahead 1. Technical Context The pair has been moving inside a well-defined bullish channel since May, forming higher highs and higher lows. Price is currently hovering around 1.1718, approaching the upper boundary of the channel and a key weekly supply zone (1.1750–1.1850). ➡️ Potential scenario: A short bullish extension toward 1.1780–1.1820 to trigger stop hunts, followed by a bearish rejection toward 1.1500, and potentially 1.1380. The daily RSI is overbought (>70), suggesting a likely short-term correction. 2. Retail Sentiment 80% of retail traders are short, with an average entry around 1.1318. This signals a liquidity cluster above current highs, increasing the likelihood of a fake bullish breakout followed by a sell-off. ➡️ Contrarian insight: Retail heavily short → market may push higher first to wipe them out before reversing lower. 3. COT Report – USD Index (DXY) Non-commercials (speculators) increased their short exposure on USD (+3,134). Commercials cut their short positions (-1,994), indicating a potential bottoming on the dollar. ➡️ Conclusion: USD strength could return soon → bearish pressure for EUR/USD. 4. COT Report – EUR FX Non-commercials increased longs on EUR (+2,980) and sharply reduced shorts (-6,602) → market is now heavily net long. Commercials remain net short (581,664 vs 417,363 longs). ➡️ Over-leveraged spec longs → vulnerable to downside squeeze if macro sentiment shifts. 5. Seasonality June tends to be mildly bullish for EUR/USD. July historically shows even stronger upward performance over the last 5–10 years. ➡️ Shorts are high risk in the very short term, but a bearish setup is likely in the second half of July, especially if price action confirms. 6. Trading Outlook 📍 Short-Term Bias: Neutral to bullish toward 1.1780–1.1820 📍 Mid-Term Bias: Bearish on rejection from supply area and break of channel 🎯 Key Levels: 1.1780–1.1850: critical decision zone (liquidity + weekly supply) 1.1500: first key support 1.1380: next downside target (demand zone + previous POC) 📌 Final Conclusion The most likely play is a short setup from 1.1780–1.1850 on strong rejection, supported by: Extreme retail positioning (80% short), COT pointing to USD recovery, Extended technical structure, Overbought RSI on the daily chart.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
15
EURUSD: overboughtFriday was a non-working day in the US, as the country was celebrating Independence Day. The most important weekly macro data was related to US jobs data. At the start of the week JOLTs job openings in May were posted with a figure of 7.769M, significantly higher from market estimate of 7,3M. The next day the NFPs and Unemployment rate was published. As per data, the unemployment rate dropped by 0,1pp to the level of 4,1%, which missed market expectations of 4,2%. The Non-farm payrolls in June added 147K new jobs, again better from forecasted 110K. The average hourly earnings were higher by 0,2% in June, or 3,7% on a yearly basis, modestly below the forecasted 3,9%. Other weekly macro data including ISM Manufacturing PMI in June reached 49,0 a bit higher from estimated 48,8. The ISM Services PMI in June was standing at 50,8 in line with market estimates. Retail Sales in Germany dropped by an additional -1,6% in May, bringing the indicator to the level of +1,6% on a yearly basis. Both figures were lower from the market estimate of +0,5% for May and +3,3% for the year. Inflation rate in Germany preliminary in June was 2% a bit lower from forecasted 2,2%. Inflation for the month was standing at 0%. Preliminary inflation data for the Euro Zone in June was 0,3% for the month and 2% for the year. EuroZone core inflation was standing at 2,3% in June, exactly in line with market estimates. The unemployment rate in the Euro Zone in May was modestly increased by 0,1pp to the level of 6,3%, while the market was expecting to remain flat at 6,2%. The US Dollar continued its decline against the euro during the previous week. The highest weekly level was at 1,1825, but the currency pair closed the week at 1,1776. The RSI reached the level of 73, signalling a clear overbought market side, increasing the probability of a short term reversal in the coming period. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, indicating low probability of a potential cross in the future period. The eurusd daily chart is showing that the currency pair had formed a sort of channel with an uptrend during the past period. If lows from end of February, mid March and end of March are connected, the indication for a next potential level of eurusd might be somewhere above the 1,16 level. The 1,1620 was the highest level achieved in mid July this year, which aligns well with the previous indication. Indicators are currently showing higher probability of a short term reversal. The week ahead is not bringing any currently significant news with respect to the US economy, in which sense, it could be expected that the market will slow down a bit during the week. Short reversal is quite possible, where the level of 1,1620 might be shortly tested. Just in case that the market decides to continue movement toward the higher grounds, then 1,18 resistance will be tested, before the market continues its road toward the 1,19 level. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Industrial Production in May in Germany, Retail Sales in the Euro Zone for May, Balance of Trade in Germany in May, Inflation rate final for May in Germany, USD: FOMC Meeting minutes.
by XBTFX
EURUSD: New-Week Technical Bias (Market Open)Multi-Timeframe Structural Outlook: Higher Timeframes (Monthly, Weekly, Daily): Market structure remains in a clear Ascend Sequence, reflecting an intact Buy-Side Bias Environment (BBE). Price action continues to build bullish structure, supporting an overall upward lean. Lower Timeframe Technical Snapshot: 4H & 1H: Current price consolidates within a well-defined Value Compression Phase (VCP) between 1.8297 – 1.7078, signaling temporary indecision and mixed short-term directional clarity. Liquidity Mechanics & Trap Dynamics: Recent Sweep Event targeting 1.7470 exploited a Trap Vector (TV), drawing price below perceived support to tap into underlying liquidity pockets within both a Price Inefficiency Zone (PIZ) and Bid Accumulation Zone (BAZ). Following this engineered sweep, price reversed, validating hidden bullish intent beneath the range. Order Clustering Targets: Expect clustered liquidity and potential price magnet zones at 1.8097 and 1.8192, representing logical upside attractions aligned with orderflow objectives. Reaction Points: VCP High (1.8297): Break and sustained acceptance above signals potential Ascend Sequence continuation and broader bullish resumption. VCP Low (1.7078): Breakdown with intent below increases probability of a Trend Signature Shift (TSS), signaling bearish structure vulnerability and potential trend deterioration. Summary: Bullish on HT structures remains valid, but short-term bias is mixed pending confirmed resolution of the VCP range boundaries. Price behavior at the highs/lows of the compression zone will dictate next directional conviction.
by Olamitrades1
EURUSDEUR/USD Exchange Rate EUR/USD: 1.17735 The euro has strengthened against the US dollar, trading near its highest level since early 2024, supported by a softer DXY and stable Eurozone outlook. 10-Year Government Bond Yields Region 10-Year Yield Date Eurozone 2.560% July 5, 2025 United States 4.348% July 5, 2025 The US 10-year Treasury yield remains above the Eurozone’s, but the gap has narrowed in recent months. Central Bank Policy Rates Central Bank Policy Rate Last Change/Status ECB 2.00% (Deposit Rate) Cut by 25 bps in June 2025 Federal Reserve 4.25%–4.50% Unchanged since Dec 2024 The ECB recently cut its deposit rate to 2.00% RFR 2.15% MLF 2.4%, its lowest in over two years, as inflation nears target and growth remains subdued. The Fed has held its target range steady at 4.25%–4.50% since December 2024, with markets expecting possible cuts later in 2025 on cautious wait and see approach by feds Rate and Yield Differentials Metric US Eurozone Differential (US - Eurozone) Policy Rate 4.25–4.50% 2.00% 2.25–2.50% 10-Year Bond Yield 4.35% 2.560% 1.79% Yield Differential: The US 10-year yield exceeds the Eurozone’s by 1.79 percentage points, a key driver for capital flows and EUR/USD direction ,but strong euro zone economic outlook offset the yield and bond advantage giving the euro buy advantage . Policy Rate Differential: The Fed’s policy rate is 2.25–2.50 percentage points higher than the ECB’s, though the gap is expected to narrow if the Fed cuts rates later this year. Market Implications EUR/USD: The narrowing yield and rate differentials have supported euro strength in recent weeks. Bond Markets: US yields remain higher, but the Eurozone’s 10-year yield is at a multi-year high, reflecting persistent inflation and reduced ECB accommodation. Central Bank Outlook: Both the Fed and ECB are expected to remain data-dependent, with further easing possible if economic conditions warrant. The euro is currently strong against the dollar, with narrowing rate and yield differentials reflecting shifting monetary policy expectations and global economic condition. #eurusd
Long
by Shavyfxhub
EUR/USD technical and fundamental analysis for next 2 days.Hello Traders, This whole analysis is based on 1 hour time frame. Indicators used for technical analysis: EMA RSI VWAP anchor Volume Profile Fibonacci retracement and extension In 1 hour time frame price is forming an ascending triangle which is likely to break out as EMA, and vwap are signalling bullish momentum. If price breaks resistance at $1.17832 its likely to go up till $1.18100. RSI is in the middle so it has ample room to move in both directions, So if trend line support breaks the price might move downwards to the support level at &1.17628 but the probability of this is very low. Volume profile is highlighting the current price with the most volume so it makes it a critical point for movement in any direction. Fundamental Analysis: The Fed (US Central Bank) is getting soft: On July 9th, we'll see notes from their last meeting. They're expected to sound pretty dovish, which just means they're worried about the US economy and might cut interest rates soon. Trump's Tariffs are back (July 9th deadline): If he puts new taxes on imported goods, it makes global trade messy and creates a lot of worry about the US economy. When people worry about the US, they tend to sell US Dollars. The Dollar is already weak & It's already been losing strength. Because the US Dollar is set to get a lot weaker from those big events on July 9th, and the Euro is holding steady, the EUR/USD is very likely to tilt UP. Remember trading is a game of probability and this analysis could go wrong but technical and fundamental analysis are suggesting strong bullish movement.
Long
by Sully-X
2
EURUSDEUR/USD Exchange Rate EUR/USD: 1.17735 The euro has strengthened against the US dollar, trading near its highest level since early 2024, supported by a softer DXY and stable Eurozone outlook. 10-Year Government Bond Yields Region 10-Year Yield Date Eurozone 2.560% July 5, 2025 United States 4.348% July 5, 2025 The US 10-year Treasury yield remains above the Eurozone’s, but the gap has narrowed in recent months. Central Bank Policy Rates Central Bank Policy Rate Last Change/Status ECB 2.00% (Deposit Rate) Cut by 25 bps in June 2025 Federal Reserve 4.25%–4.50% Unchanged since Dec 2024 The ECB recently cut its deposit rate to 2.00% RFR 2.15% MLF 2.4%, its lowest in over two years, as inflation nears target and growth remains subdued. The Fed has held its target range steady at 4.25%–4.50% since December 2024, with markets expecting possible cuts later in 2025 on cautious wait and see approach by feds Rate and Yield Differentials Metric US Eurozone Differential (US - Eurozone) Policy Rate 4.25–4.50% 2.00% 2.25–2.50% 10-Year Bond Yield 4.35% 2.560% 1.79% Yield Differential: The US 10-year yield exceeds the Eurozone’s by 1.79 percentage points, a key driver for capital flows and EUR/USD direction ,but strong euro zone economic outlook offset the yield and bond advantage giving the euro buy advantage . Policy Rate Differential: The Fed’s policy rate is 2.25–2.50 percentage points higher than the ECB’s, though the gap is expected to narrow if the Fed cuts rates later this year. Market Implications EUR/USD: The narrowing yield and rate differentials have supported euro strength in recent weeks. Bond Markets: US yields remain higher, but the Eurozone’s 10-year yield is at a multi-year high, reflecting persistent inflation and reduced ECB accommodation. Central Bank Outlook: Both the Fed and ECB are expected to remain data-dependent, with further easing possible if economic conditions warrant. The euro is currently strong against the dollar, with narrowing rate and yield differentials reflecting shifting monetary policy expectations and global economic condition. #eurusd
Long
by Shavyfxhub
15
EURUSD: Potential Trend Reversal BrewingEURUSD is exhibiting clear signs of a potential trend reversal, having recently broken its previous Higher Low and subsequently establishing a sequence of Lower Highs and Lower Lows. This shift in market structure from bullish to bearish is a strong indicator of weakening upside momentum. Further confirming this outlook, the RSI is displaying a notable bearish divergence, where price registers higher highs while the RSI prints lower highs, signaling diminishing bullish strength at these elevated price levels. Considering this confluence of technical factors, a potential short setup is present.
Short
by Emranmeo
Euro can rebound up from support area to 1.1860 pointsHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. In this chart, we can see how the price has been moving confidently inside an upward channel after breaking out of a wedge formation. Previously, price consolidated within a narrowing wedge pattern above the buyer zone and broke upward, showing strong bullish momentum. That breakout initiated the current uptrend and led to the formation of a new support area. Now, price is pulling back from the resistance line of the channel and approaching this support area, which also coincides with the support line of the channel. This confluence increases the probability of a bullish reaction in this region. The structure suggests that buyers may step in around this level, preventing a deeper retracement. If the pair bounces off the support zone, I expect a continuation of the uptrend toward the upper boundary of the channel. For that reason, I set my TP at 1.1860 points, almost aligning with the resistance line of the channel. Given the current price action, the bullish structure, and strong reaction levels, I remain bullish and anticipate a rebound followed by further growth toward my target. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀 Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Long
by LegionQ8
16
EUR/USD breakout awaiting EUR/USD has not provided a clear structure over the past week or two. The pair appears to be in consolidation, building liquidity on both sides of the current range. At the moment, I’m waiting for a decisive breakout, ideally followed by distribution within the monthly supply zone, although that zone is still some distance away. This week, my focus will be on whether a new supply zone forms, closer to current price. If price sweeps the nearby equal highs and then shows signs of reversal, this could give us a fresh supply area to work from. Alternatively, if price moves lower, I’ll be looking at the 8-hour demand zone around 1.16000 for a possible long setup. Confluences for EUR/USD: - Although price has been slightly bullish, the current consolidation phase suggests a potential reversal could be on the horizon. - Liquidity is building on both sides of the range, making a reaction from the monthly supply zone increasingly probable. - There’s significant downside liquidity still untapped, such as Asia session lows, which could serve as short-term targets. - For clearer confirmation, we still need a decisive break in market structure to the downside. P.S. If price sweeps the lower liquidity and moves into the 8-hour demand zone near 1.16000, I will be watching for accumulation to form and signs of bullish intent from there.
by Hassan_fx
3
EURUSD Quadruple Top Rejection Pattern - Bearish Correction This quadruple top rejection pattern on the H1 timeframe is currently in play and it is a strong indication or confirmation that the bearish correction will likely resume next week. If you are unsure when to enter short positions for this trade setup, wait for a demand zone to break, followed by a pullback and continue to ride the bearish momentum and target the next demand zone, and the next and so on and so forth until a time when this correction ends and the uptrend continues.
Short
by Moipone_Phakisi