Eurusd technical analysis.Eurusd techinical analysis next move posibale at h1 time frame.not finchinal advice.
USDEUX trade ideas
EUR/USD Wave 5 Topped? Correction Incoming to 1.076FX_IDC:EURUSD PEPPERSTONE:EURUSD OANDA:EURUSD
📈 Chart Breakdown
🔢 Elliott Impulse Wave Completed:
Waves (1) to (5) appear to form a clean 5-wave impulse structure upward.
Final wave (5) is diverging on the oscillator (RSI), signaling potential bullish exhaustion.
🧾 ABC Correction Expected:
After the 5-wave impulse, you project an ABC corrective move:
Wave A: initial drop
Wave B: partial recovery
Wave C: deeper move likely toward the 1.07680 support (blue horizontal line)
⚠️ Bearish RSI Divergence:
The label "Div" confirms bearish divergence between price and RSI → typical at end of Wave (5).
🧠 Summary:
Structure: 5-wave impulse + projected 3-wave correction
Bias: Short-term bearish targeting 1.07680
Confirmation: Look for break below support or trendline + momentum shift
EURUSD: Correction to 1D MA50 possible.EURUSD is vastly overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 74.017, MACD = 0.011, ADX = 27.363) having completed a +15.64% rise from the February 3rd 2025 Low. That was a technical HL bottom on the 3 year Channel Up and the same amount of price increase was seen on its first bullish wave. When it peaked it made three successive highs over a 6 month period (Feb-July 2023) before starting a long term bearish sentiment creation. For now, we can expect at least a 1D MA50 test on the short-term (TP = 1.15000).
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EURUSD monthly pattern shows symmetrical triangle resistance ! EURUSD monthly pattern showing price reaching the symmetrical triangle resistance and currently price is nearing the resistance and may soon the price may reverse and look for the reversal on 4 hr or daily charts.
EURUSD: The Market Is Looking Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 1.17808 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 1.17671.and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURUSD Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the EURUSD next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 1.1774
Bias -Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 1.1792
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURUSD BuyExternal structure is bullish. Price took liquidity from a POI. gave a reaction which broke internal structure and came back to mitigate an Order Block.
EURUSD 30Min Engaged ( Bearish Entry Detected )➕ Objective: Precision Volume Execution
Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare
Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout
🩸 Bearish Wave Coming From : 1.17750
➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority
➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected.
The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size.
Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation.
🔥 Tactical Note:
We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention.
The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
EURUSD 30Min Engaged ( Bullish Entry Detected )
Do You Have a Trading Edge?A Practical Guide to Figuring Out if What You’re Doing Is Actually Working
There comes a point in every trader’s journey when you stop asking “what indicator should I use” and start asking something much more important.
Is what I’m doing actually working?
It’s an honest question. When the P&L has been chopping sideways or dipping red for weeks, it’s easy to feel stuck. Maybe you’ve been grinding for months, jumping from one setup to another, but still not seeing consistent progress. Before you give up or double down, it’s worth stepping back and looking at the one thing that matters most.
Do you have an edge?
What Is a Trading Edge, Really?
A trading edge isn’t about being right all the time. It isn’t some secret indicator or a feeling in your gut. It’s a cold, hard number.
Your edge is the amount of money you can expect to make or lose on average every time you place a trade. If the number is positive, you’re on the right side of probability. If it’s negative, then no amount of motivation or mindset work will stop the account from bleeding over time.
Thankfully, there’s a simple formula that tells you exactly where you stand.
The Formula: No Hype, Just Maths
Edge per trade = (Average Win × Win Rate) − (Average Loss × Loss Rate)
Or more simply:
Edge = W × R – L × (1−R)
Where:
• W is your average winning trade in pounds
• L is your average losing trade (as a positive number)
• R is your win rate, written as a decimal (so 55% becomes 0.55)
This is your trading edge. It’s not a concept. It’s a number. And it either works or it doesn’t.
Let’s Put It Into Practice
Say you win 45% of the time. Your average winning trade makes £180. Your average losing trade costs £120. Plug the numbers in.
Edge = £180 × 0.45 minus £120 × 0.55
Edge = £81 minus £66
Edge = £15
That £15 is your expected value per trade. So if you take 100 trades following that same pattern, you’d expect to make £1,500 before costs. That’s the kind of maths you want working in your favour. It’s not glamorous. It’s not loud. But it’s sustainable.
What if the Edge Is Negative?
This is where a lot of traders lose heart. But it’s actually good news. If the formula tells you the edge isn’t there, you can stop guessing. It means you’ve identified the problem.
A negative edge just tells you that, on balance, either:
• you’re winning too infrequently
• your losses are too large
• your winners aren’t big enough
And every one of those can be adjusted. This isn’t about tearing down your whole system. Often, a small shift in one variable is all it takes to turn a negative edge into a positive one.
Three Ways to Nudge the Numbers in Your Favour
1. Improve the win rate slightly
Look for trades with more confluence. Stick to clearer trends. Avoid taking marginal setups during unpredictable conditions. You don’t need a huge jump, even going from 40% to 47% can have a big impact.
2. Increase the size of your winners
Let trades run a little longer when the conditions are right. Take partials if it helps your mindset, but keep a portion on to capture the extended move. Most traders cut profits too early and let losers drift too far.
3. Tighten up the losses
Use hard stops. Respect them. Review your biggest losing trades and ask yourself if they really had to be that big. Often they didn’t. The goal is to keep losses small and repeatable, not devastating and unpredictable.
A Note on Sample Size
Five or ten trades won’t give you a reliable read on your edge. You need a bigger pool. Ideally 50 to 100 trades minimum. Patterns emerge over time, not in the heat of one session.
A strong edge can go through losing streaks. A poor strategy can get lucky for a while. But when you track your numbers over enough trades, the truth becomes very clear.
You’re Probably Closer Than You Think
If you’ve never done this calculation before, don’t feel behind. Most retail traders never actually work out their edge. They focus on indicators, entry techniques, or mindset work without ever stopping to ask if the numbers stack up.
But once you do the maths, things start to change. You stop judging yourself by your last trade and start thinking in averages. You stop chasing every setup and start focusing on quality. You stop worrying about being right, and start focusing on being consistent.
That’s what separates hobbyists from professionals. The numbers are the difference.
Summary:
If your edge is negative, you now know where to look. If it’s positive, even just slightly, you’ve got something worth building on. Either way, the path forward is clearer.
Trading is hard, no question. But it’s not magic. It’s probability, risk control and discipline applied consistently. And it all starts with understanding the maths behind what you’re doing.
So next time you’re questioning whether your system is any good, don’t ask how it feels. Run the numbers.
Do you have a trading edge?
If yes, protect it. If not, now you know what to fix.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
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#AN013: USD and AUD under pressure, Euro advances
1. India: New strategy on FX volatility
The Indian Respondents' Bank (RBI) is allowing more volatility on the USD/INR exchange rate, prompting many companies to hedge with forward contracts. This is the highest level of coverage since 2020.
We thank in advance our Official Broker Partner PEPPERSTONE who supported us in writing this article.
FX Impact:
Potential weakening of the rupee in the short term, but increased stability in the medium-long term.
Volatility on USD/INR, EUR/INR, JPY/INR ? opportunities for carry trades and short-term shorts if the dollar strengthens.
2. Australia hit by extreme storms
Severe storms hit New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria: 100 km/h winds, torrential rains and blackouts on over 30,000 homes.
Australian economic sentiment pressured ? AUD weak.
Opportunities on AUD/USD, AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD from a short perspective.
Monitor agricultural and insurance developments ? risk of extended downside.
3. Iran: Fordow nuclear site severely damaged
US strike hits Iranian nuclear site. In response, Iran has threatened to mine the Strait of Hormuz, a critical point for global oil transport.
Geopolitical volatility expected to rise.
Increased flows to safe haven currencies: JPY, CHF and USD.
Also impacting CAD and AUD due to oil ? risk of short-term upside but corrections if stalemate persists.
4. US $3.3 trillion fiscal package under discussion
Senate considering mega stimulus plan. This fuels fears of new debt ? dollar falls to 4-year low against euro.
EUR/USD long strengthened (break above 1.17 already underway).
GBP/USD and NZD/USD potentially in push.
Risk of FED rate cut? increased volatility on dollar and bonds.
Strategic Conclusion
Recommended operations: long on EUR/USD, short on AUD/USD, long on USD/INR (only with confirmation).
Watch out for the next 48 hours: possible spike on CHF, JPY and CAD.
Institutional timing: probable fund inflows on EUR and USD in case of confirmed breakouts; stay ready but avoid front-running.
Stay updated for other news.
EURUSDOther analysis suggests continued bullish momentum, potentially testing the 1.19-1.20 level in the coming weeks, and possibly even higher towards 1.2227 or 1.2456 if the rally continues strongly
EURUSD : TodayToday looks like a good day.
Price is weakening.
Confirmation by the end of this day should be good with price BELOW the POC.
Good luck.
MY TCB STRATEGY🔍 Detailed Breakdown
✅ Trend Structure
1H and 4H trends are strongly bullish.
Clean higher highs and higher lows.
Momentum shows clear breakout from range on June 21–24.
🟦 EP1 Zone (1.1600–1.1615) – Minor Pullback
Risk: Price still within supply; not yet a confirmed retracement.
If entry is taken here, price must:
Form a bullish engulfing or low-timeframe FVG at the zone.
Hold above 1.1595 to remain valid.
✅ Good for momentum re-entry.
❗ Risk of getting trapped if deeper retracement (EP2) is needed.
🔲 EP2 Zone (1.1580–1.1600) – Optimal Confluence
Aligns with:
H4 trendline
Breaker block
Prior demand + FVG
If price pulls back here, it offers:
Best RR and lowest risk entry
Ideal setup for Set & Forget
✅ This is the premium zone for longs if price dips.
🎯 Targets
TP1: 1.17250 – Previous high and clean liquidity magnet
TP2: 1.17530 – Next external liquidity (major high)
Both targets are realistic in bullish continuation scenario.
⚖️ Entry Comparison Table
Zone Entry Level Pros Cons R:R Est.
EP1 1.1610 Close to momentum, smaller pullback High risk of rejection/fakeout ~1:2
EP2 1.1585 Trendline + breaker + clean RR May not reach (missed entry risk) ~1:2.8+
🔔 Alerts Recommendation
1.1590: Buy alert for EP2 zone entry
1.1625: Bullish break confirmation
1.1545: Invalidation level (structure break)
🧠 TCBFlow Final Thought:
“EP1 is for aggressive traders. EP2 is for patient execution. The market owes you nothing – it only rewards precision.”
📊 Final Score
Setup Score %
EP1 7/10 70% ⚠️ Medium Confidence (Requires confirmation)
EP2 9/10 90% ✅ High Confidence (Best TCB zone)
🧠 Summary:
EP1 is early, momentum-based — only enter if you see strong bullish PA.
SET and FORGET
EP2 is clean, structured, and high-confluence — best suited for Set & Forget with minimum emotional interference.
Downtrend It is expected that after some fluctuation in the current resistance range, a trend change will take place and we will see the beginning of a downtrend. A break of the green support range will be a confirmation of the downtrend. With a break and consolidation above the resistance range, the alternative scenario will be a continuation of the uptrend.
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USDOn the weekly chart, the price is approaching the upper boundary of the price channel, around the 1.1822 mark, from which a reversal of the entire trend may occur.
A divergence with the Marlin oscillator is ready for immediate formation. If the price breaks above the channel line, it will most likely be a false false breakout, invalidating the channel. Only a weekly candle close above the specified level, accompanied by the oscillator rising above the previous peak, would significantly complicate the technical picture for a trend reversal.
On the daily chart, a possible target in the event of a breakout above 1.1822 is the 1.1905 level - the resistance from 1.1822 is the 1.1905 level - the resistance from July - August 2021. On the four - hour chart, the Marlin oscillator does not support the price's bullish momentum.
For now, the trend remains upward, but we are preparing for a possible shift. The Nonfarm Payrolls, Independence Day, and "Liberation Day" (new tariffs) are just around the corner. Donald Trump may have a surprise in store.
EURUSD Long, 02 JulyAsia Fill Trade
Despite being inside a Daily Bearish OB, this trade is purely an Asia fill setup, so HTF bias is not heavily weighted here.
We had clear 1m BOS and retrace into the 1m OB, right inside a 15m Decisional POI, backed by inverted hammer rejections on both EU and DXY.
📉 Entry: 1m OB after BOS
📊 Confluence: DXY reacting from 15m POI + Asia
🎯 TP: Asia Low (1:3 RR)
🛡️ BE: 1.5RR or LTF BOS continuation
Clean execution based on intraday logic & structure, with correlation as additional confidence.
ARX Price Forecast | What I’m Watching NextThis video outlines my personal expectations for upcoming price action based on the ARX method. I share the key levels, liquidity zones, and market behavior I’m watching along with the potential setups I’ll be waiting for.
This is not a signal or financial advice, but an educational insight into how I prepare for possible moves in the market.
For educational purposes only.
Let’s see how the market plays it out 👀
EURUSD is moving within the 1.15900 -1.18500 range👉🏼 Possible scenario:
The euro gained 0.16% on July 1, nearing its highest level against the dollar since 2021. Fed Chair Powell maintained a cautious tone on rate cuts, reinforcing expectations of possible easing if economic data weakens. Tensions between President Trump and Powell, including Trump's push for lower rates, have raised concerns over Fed independence and added pressure on the dollar.
Traders now await ECB President Lagarde’s speech and the U.S. ADP jobs report on July 2, which could influence EURUSD direction. A weak jobs print may send the pair toward 1.17500.
✅Support and Resistance Levels
Now, the support level is located at 1.15900
Resistance level is located at 1.18500
EURUSD Will Go Down From Resistance! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.177.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.171.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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