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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EUR/USD Analysis – June 29, 2025The US dollar hasn't seen such a significant decline against the euro in the past three years. Just moments ago, EUR/USD broke above the 1.17 level, pushing into a new high. 📈 Looking at the chart, there’s a clear bullish momentum, especially impressive for a typically cautious pair like EUR/USD. To be honest, I wasn’t expecting this much upside in the current time window — but the ongoing strength doesn’t look like it’s going to fade easily either. ⚠️ If you're considering a counter-trend trade, a potential short could be taken around the 1.165 area, provided there’s a solid closing signal, targeting the 1.150 demand zone. 📌 Still, both mid-term and long-term structure remain bullish, and a better buy setup may come around the 1.148 level.
Short
by SineHeidari
German CPI flatlines, eurozone CPI nextThe euro is up for an eighth consecutive day and has gained 2.4% during that time. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1738, up 0.36% on the day. German inflation data on Monday pointed to a weakening German economy. The CPI report indicated that the deflationary process slowly continues. The inflation rate for June came in at 0% m/m, down from 0.1% in May and below the consensus of 0.2%. Annually, inflation dropped to 2.0% from 2.1% and below the consensus of 2.1%. The eurozone releases its CPI report on Tuesday. Inflation has been dropping in small increments and has now fallen to the European Central Bank's inflation target of 2%. The ECB cut the deposit rate to 2.0% earlier in June and meets next in July. Although eurozone inflation is largely contained, there are concerns about the impact that US tariffs and counter-tariffs by US trading partners could have on the inflation picture. The ECB is likely to maintain rates in July but could lower rates in September if disinflation continues. The US continues to show signs that the economy is slowing down. Last week, GDP was revised downwards to -0.5% in the first quarter. This was followed by US consumer spending for May (PCE) which posted a 0.1% decline, following a 0.2% gain in April and shy of the consensus of 0.1%. This was the first contraction since January. If economic data continues to head lower, pressure will increase on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which isn't expected before the September meeting. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.1755. Above, there is resistance at 1.1791 1.1718 and 1.1682 are the next support levels
by OANDA
EUR/USD BUY IDEA - SMT WITH GBPHere's my analysis , let me share my A+ set up with you : 1 - WAIT ON ASIA LOW SWEEP WITH EUR / USD 2 - WE WILL POTENTIALLY HAVE A SMT WITH GBP USD IF WE SWEEP ASIA LOW 3 - WAIT ON BOS + FVG IN 5 MIN TIME FRAME 4 - TARGET PREVIOUS WEEK HIGH AS DRAW ON LIQUIDITY This is what I see happening . After full take profit, we will have our new Weekly Protected High I believe and from there we can start targeting Sellside Liquidity . I hope you enjoyed the analysis , I will post updates during the day . Talk to you guys soon ! =D
Long
by cyw_chartyourway
Euro will make correction to support line of channelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. In this chart, we can see how the price entered to triangle, where it at once bounced from the support line and rose to the 1.1100 support level, which coincided with the buyer zone. Soon, price broke this level, after a small correction, and continued to move up to the 1.1575 current support level, which coincided with the support area. This area also coincided with the resistance line of the triangle, and the Euro rebounded from this line and started to decline. In a short time, it declined to the buyer zone, where it turned around and started to move up. Soon, Euro exited from triangle and continued to rise inside an upward channel, where it made a correction first and then continued to grow. Later, EUR rose to 1.1575 current support level, one more time and even almost broke it, but failed and corrected. But soon, it finally broke this level and rose to the resistance line of the channel, where at the moment it continues to trade near. In my mind, Euro will rebound from this line and go to the correction until to support line of the channel, breaking the support level. For this case, my TP is located near this line - at the 1.1490 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀 Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Short
by LegionQ8
10
EURUSD Under Pressure! SELL! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for EURUSD is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.1726 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 1.1612 My Stop Loss - 1.1783 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
EURUSD - Eur bull run over??Completed Elliott Wave Structure: • The chart displays a full 5-wave impulsive Elliott Wave count to the upside, labeled (1) through (5), completing a wave C. • This suggests the end of a corrective ABC pattern, which often marks the end of a bullish retracement or rally within a larger downtrend. Price Reaches Resistance Zone: • The price reaches a previous high/resistance area marked by the top of the wedge and completes the fifth wave. • This is typically where institutional traders may look to take profits or enter short positions. Risk-Reward Set Up Suggests Short Bias: • The chart includes a bearish risk-reward trade setup, indicating the trader expects a decline. • The stop loss is placed slightly above the peak of wave 5, and the take profit is much lower, giving a favorable risk-to-reward ratio in anticipation of a significant move down. Structure Confluence: • The top of wave (5) aligns with the trendline resistance from the rising wedge formation, adding technical confluence to the bearish outlook. ⸻ Conclusion With a completed Elliott Wave count, bearish chart pattern (rising wedge), technical resistance, and a well-defined short setup, the chart strongly suggests that a major top may be in place for EUR/USD, and a downside move is likely to follow.
Short
by m0bh4y4t
EURUSD tested the Resistance level 1.17460 👀 Possible scenario: On June 30, the euro (EUR) rose 0.15% to 1.17500, briefly reaching 1.17540—its highest level since September 2021—marking a 1.57% weekly gain, the strongest since May 19. The rally was driven by broad U.S. dollar weakness as markets adjusted to signs of slowing U.S. growth and subdued inflation, fueling expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, resilient European data supported the euro. On June 30, investors will closely monitor speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) officials for policy signals, with particular focus on President Christine Lagarde’s address at 5:00 p.m. UTC, which may provide key insights into the ECB’s monetary stance. ✅Support and Resistance Levels Now, the support level is located at 1.15900 Resistance level is located at 1.17460
by MaxOnMarkets
EURUSD Sell signal at the top of the Channel Up.Last time we analyzed the EURUSD pair (June 23, see chart below) we gave a strong buy signals at the bottom of the 1.5-month Channel Up: The price is almost near our Target but since it's been consolidating for so many 4H candles on the pattern's top, it is better to take the good profit and turn bearish. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level has been a solid target for the previous two Bearish Legs, but since the last one bottomed just above it on the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), we will place the Target a little higher this time also at 1.16100. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 30 June - 4 JulyMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: Eurozone Inflation, US Jobs, ISM PMIs, ECB Forum Updates In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in! In this episode, we discuss: — Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash — US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate — US ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI — ECB Forum on Central Banking Note: U.S. markets may see thin trading ahead of the 4 July holiday, raising volatility risks. Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey. This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
Buy setup TiqGpt1D Timeframe: The daily chart shows a strong bullish momentum with a series of green candles indicating a clear uptrend. This suggests institutional buying pressure and a lack of significant sell-side resistance. 4H Timeframe: The 4-hour chart presents a more consolidated view with price action oscillating around the 1.17200 level. This could indicate a phase of distribution or accumulation as institutions prepare for the next significant move. 1H Timeframe: The hourly chart shows a similar consolidation pattern with slight bullish bias as evidenced by the recent green candles. This could be a preparation phase before a potential liquidity sweep. 15M Timeframe: The 15-minute chart shows more volatility with price testing both higher and lower bounds around the central consolidation zone. This indicates active trading and potential setup for stop hunts. 5M Timeframe: On the 5-minute chart, there is a visible decline, suggesting a potential liquidity grab as price dips below the consolidation zone, possibly trapping late retail sellers. 1M Timeframe: The 1-minute chart shows a sharp drop followed by a quick recovery, indicative of a stop hunt or liquidity sweep, confirming the potential trap seen on the 5-minute chart. INSTITUTIONAL THESIS: Institutions appear to be in a phase of accumulation after a liquidity sweep, particularly visible on the lower timeframes. The recent sharp movements on the 1-minute and 5-minute charts suggest a trapping of retail positions, setting the stage for a potential bullish continuation. LEARNING POINT: "1M and 5M liquidity sweep and trapping of retail sellers before potential bullish continuation."
Long
by Mistermoriarty
EUR/USD – Weak Expectations, Neutral German CPI📉 EUR/USD – Weak Expectations, Neutral German CPI, and Bearish Momentum Ahead Bias: Short / Sell Setup EUR/USD recently surged toward the 1.0750 zone sooner than expected, driven more by market optimism and speculative flows than solid fundamentals. Now, that optimism is starting to fade as data fails to back it up. Meanwhile, the potential U.S. tax reform proposal (Trump) and signs of renewed trade negotiations are helping shift sentiment back toward the U.S. dollar in the coming 10 days. --- 🇩🇪 German CPI – Neutral Print, But Bearish Implications Today's regional inflation figures across German states were mixed: States like Saxony and Baden-Württemberg showed slightly rising prices Others like Bavaria and North Rhine-Westphalia showed declining YoY inflation Final national CPI due later today is unlikely to beat expectations meaningfully 🎯 Summary: A Neutral CPI Print No upside surprise → No support for EUR No major downside → No panic either --- 🧠 Why "Neutral" Data Can Still Be Bearish for EUR The market was hoping for a strong CPI to signal that ECB may pause rate cuts Neutral inflation = ECB may still lean dovish EUR rose on hope — but data offered no confirmation In financial markets, failed expectations often trigger stronger corrections than bad news. --- 🔍 Technical Overview: Price approaching strong supply zone near 1.0740 – 1.0760 RSI showing divergence on lower timeframes (H1) Structure on M15 suggests potential for lower highs Price stalling under resistance, with no bullish momentum follow-through --- 🎯 Trade Plan: Bias: Short Entry Zone: 1.0730 – 1.0755 Stop Loss: Above 1.0775 Take Profit 1: 1.0630 Take Profit 2: 1.0600 Trigger: Break of M15 bearish structure or supply reaction --- 📌 Markets punish over-optimism more than fear. EUR/USD may correct lower as hopes of a strong CPI fade and macro flows tilt toward the USD.
Short
by mehrshad31
MarketBreakdown | EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list. 1️⃣ #EURUSD weekly time frame 🇪🇺🇺🇸 The pair is unstoppable. The market violated a significant weekly resistance cluster last week. It opens more growth potential after a pullback. 2️⃣ #GBPUSD weekly time frame 🇬🇧🇺🇸 In comparison to EURUSD, GBPUSD is now approaching a major resistance area. I think that we can expect a retracement from that. 3️⃣ #USDJPY daily time frame 🇺🇸🇯🇵 The market continues a correctional movement lower. The closest strong support that I see is based on a rising trend line. I think that buying interest may spark again after its text. 4️⃣ #USDCHF daily time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇭 The price updated a historic low on Friday. The next strong support that I see is based on a falling trend line. We can expect a pullback from that. Do you agree with my market breakdown? ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by VasilyTrader
1
Lingrid | EURUSD Pullback - Continuation Trading OpportunityFX:EURUSD is consolidating above the upward trendline after forming a higher high and pulling back toward dynamic support. Price structure remains bullish within the rising channel, and a rebound from the 1.1640–1.1700 zone could trigger the next leg higher. If bulls regain momentum, the pair may aim for the 1.1850 resistance ceiling within the target area. 📈 Key Levels Buy zone: 1.1640–1.1700 Sell trigger: breakdown below 1.1640 Target: 1.1850 Buy trigger: breakout and retest above 1.1750 with strong momentum 💡 Risks Breakdown below the upward channel may signal a broader reversal Weak bullish reaction from trendline could stall upside progress Failure to reclaim 1.1750 resistance keeps price vulnerable to deeper pullbacks If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
Long
by Lingrid
10