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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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USDEUX trade ideas

Buy setup TiqGpt1D Timeframe: The daily chart shows a strong bullish momentum with a series of green candles indicating a clear uptrend. This suggests institutional buying pressure and a lack of significant sell-side resistance. 4H Timeframe: The 4-hour chart presents a more consolidated view with price action oscillating around the 1.17200 level. This could indicate a phase of distribution or accumulation as institutions prepare for the next significant move. 1H Timeframe: The hourly chart shows a similar consolidation pattern with slight bullish bias as evidenced by the recent green candles. This could be a preparation phase before a potential liquidity sweep. 15M Timeframe: The 15-minute chart shows more volatility with price testing both higher and lower bounds around the central consolidation zone. This indicates active trading and potential setup for stop hunts. 5M Timeframe: On the 5-minute chart, there is a visible decline, suggesting a potential liquidity grab as price dips below the consolidation zone, possibly trapping late retail sellers. 1M Timeframe: The 1-minute chart shows a sharp drop followed by a quick recovery, indicative of a stop hunt or liquidity sweep, confirming the potential trap seen on the 5-minute chart. INSTITUTIONAL THESIS: Institutions appear to be in a phase of accumulation after a liquidity sweep, particularly visible on the lower timeframes. The recent sharp movements on the 1-minute and 5-minute charts suggest a trapping of retail positions, setting the stage for a potential bullish continuation. LEARNING POINT: "1M and 5M liquidity sweep and trapping of retail sellers before potential bullish continuation."
Long
by Mistermoriarty
EUR/USD – Weak Expectations, Neutral German CPI📉 EUR/USD – Weak Expectations, Neutral German CPI, and Bearish Momentum Ahead Bias: Short / Sell Setup EUR/USD recently surged toward the 1.0750 zone sooner than expected, driven more by market optimism and speculative flows than solid fundamentals. Now, that optimism is starting to fade as data fails to back it up. Meanwhile, the potential U.S. tax reform proposal (Trump) and signs of renewed trade negotiations are helping shift sentiment back toward the U.S. dollar in the coming 10 days. --- 🇩🇪 German CPI – Neutral Print, But Bearish Implications Today's regional inflation figures across German states were mixed: States like Saxony and Baden-Württemberg showed slightly rising prices Others like Bavaria and North Rhine-Westphalia showed declining YoY inflation Final national CPI due later today is unlikely to beat expectations meaningfully 🎯 Summary: A Neutral CPI Print No upside surprise → No support for EUR No major downside → No panic either --- 🧠 Why "Neutral" Data Can Still Be Bearish for EUR The market was hoping for a strong CPI to signal that ECB may pause rate cuts Neutral inflation = ECB may still lean dovish EUR rose on hope — but data offered no confirmation In financial markets, failed expectations often trigger stronger corrections than bad news. --- 🔍 Technical Overview: Price approaching strong supply zone near 1.0740 – 1.0760 RSI showing divergence on lower timeframes (H1) Structure on M15 suggests potential for lower highs Price stalling under resistance, with no bullish momentum follow-through --- 🎯 Trade Plan: Bias: Short Entry Zone: 1.0730 – 1.0755 Stop Loss: Above 1.0775 Take Profit 1: 1.0630 Take Profit 2: 1.0600 Trigger: Break of M15 bearish structure or supply reaction --- 📌 Markets punish over-optimism more than fear. EUR/USD may correct lower as hopes of a strong CPI fade and macro flows tilt toward the USD.
Short
by mehrshad31
MarketBreakdown | EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list. 1️⃣ #EURUSD weekly time frame 🇪🇺🇺🇸 The pair is unstoppable. The market violated a significant weekly resistance cluster last week. It opens more growth potential after a pullback. 2️⃣ #GBPUSD weekly time frame 🇬🇧🇺🇸 In comparison to EURUSD, GBPUSD is now approaching a major resistance area. I think that we can expect a retracement from that. 3️⃣ #USDJPY daily time frame 🇺🇸🇯🇵 The market continues a correctional movement lower. The closest strong support that I see is based on a rising trend line. I think that buying interest may spark again after its text. 4️⃣ #USDCHF daily time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇭 The price updated a historic low on Friday. The next strong support that I see is based on a falling trend line. We can expect a pullback from that. Do you agree with my market breakdown? ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by VasilyTrader
1
Lingrid | EURUSD Pullback - Continuation Trading OpportunityFX:EURUSD is consolidating above the upward trendline after forming a higher high and pulling back toward dynamic support. Price structure remains bullish within the rising channel, and a rebound from the 1.1640–1.1700 zone could trigger the next leg higher. If bulls regain momentum, the pair may aim for the 1.1850 resistance ceiling within the target area. 📈 Key Levels Buy zone: 1.1640–1.1700 Sell trigger: breakdown below 1.1640 Target: 1.1850 Buy trigger: breakout and retest above 1.1750 with strong momentum 💡 Risks Breakdown below the upward channel may signal a broader reversal Weak bullish reaction from trendline could stall upside progress Failure to reclaim 1.1750 resistance keeps price vulnerable to deeper pullbacks If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
Long
by Lingrid
10
EURUSD: focus on jobs dataThe major macro data for this week, the PCE indicator, was posted on Friday. The Personal Consumption Expenditure index, Feds favorite inflation gauge, increased by 0,1% in May, bringing the index to the level of 2,3% on a yearly basis. Both figures were in line with market expectations. The core PCE was a bit higher than anticipated, at the level of 0,2% for the month and 2,7% for the year. A bit surprising figures came from Personal Income in May, which dropped by -0,4%, while the Personal Spending was down by -0,1% in May. Analysts are noting that implemented trade tariffs are slowly beginning to reflect in the personal spending of the US citizens. Also, this sort of potential development was noted by the Fed during the last two FOMC meetings. The rest of posted macro data for the US included the Existing Home Sales in May reached 4,03M, which was an increase of 0,8% on a monthly basis. This was significantly above the market estimate of -1,3%. The Durable Goods Orders in May were higher by 16,4%, surpassing the market estimate of 8,5%. The GDP Growth Rate final for Q1was standing in a negative territory of -0,5% for the quarter, and was higher from market expectation of -0,2%. The end of the week brought University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures final for June, which was standing at 60,7 and was in line with estimates. The Inflation Expectations were a bit higher from the previous estimate, ending the June with expected 5% inflation, while the market was expecting to see 5,1%. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash for June in Germany was standing at the level of 49, while the same index for the Euro Zone reached 49,4. Both indicators were in line with market expectations. The Ifo Business Climate in Germany in June reached 88,4, in line with market estimates. The GfK Consumer Confidence in July was at the level of -20,3, a bit higher from estimated -19,3. The eurusd was traded with a bullish sentiment during the previous week. The currency pair started the week around the level of 1,1460 and continued toward the upside for the rest of the week. The highest weekly level at 1,1741 was reached in Friday's trading session. The RSI reached the clear overbought market side as of the end of the week, at the level of 71. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, without an indication that the potential cross is near. The market favored the euro during the last two weeks. It comes as a result of insecurity when it comes to potential negative impact of implemented trade tariffs, which are slowly revealing in the US economy. The week ahead brings more jobs data, including JOLTs, NFP and unemployment rate, which will shape the investors sentiment. Some increased volatility might be ahead. The resistance level at 1,17 has been clearly tested during the previous week, and it will mark the beginning of the week ahead. The RSI is pointing to a higher probability of a short term reversal in the coming period, which might occur in the week ahead, impacted, most probably, by jobs data. In case of a reversal, the level of 1,1620 might easily be the next target. On the opposite side, there is a lower probability of a further move above the 1,17 level, however, the market might spend some time here, before a decision to make further move. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Retail Sales in May in Germany, Inflation Rate preliminary in June for both Germany and the Euro Zone, Unemployment Rate in June in Germany, USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI in June, JOLTs Job Openings in May, Non-farm Payrolls in June, Unemployment rate in June, Average Hourly Earnings and Spending, ISM Services PMI in June
by XBTFX
EURUSD – June 30th OutlookBias: Still bullish Liquidity zone pullback: 1.16853 held as expected Next move: Watching for break of Friday's high at 1.17342 → possible retest of 1.17311 → continuation upward HRHR Setup: If price returns to 1.16853 today, it's a high risk play due to end-of-month volatility Caution: If we break below the previous 4H candle, we could range between 1.17342 and 1.16853 for the remainder of the day. 🔹 Approach with caution — it’s the final trading day of the month.
Long
by Thetraderscollective
EUR/USD - Liquidity grabbed! Move towards the 4H FVG next?This chart illustrates a short-term bearish outlook on the EUR/USD currency pair, using smart money concepts like liquidity grabs, fair value gaps (FVGs), and structural levels such as support and protected lows. It is based on the 1-hour timeframe and references a higher timeframe (4H) for added confluence. Liquidity Sweep At the top of the recent price movement, a "Liquidity sweep" is marked, suggesting that the market pushed above recent highs to trigger stop-losses of short positions or entice breakout traders before reversing. This kind of move is common in smart money concepts and typically precedes a directional shift, which in this case, is anticipated to be downward. This sweep likely removed buy-side liquidity and indicates that institutional traders may now seek to target sell-side liquidity below recent lows. Support Zone The green shaded area labeled "Support" represents a previous consolidation or demand zone that temporarily held price after the liquidity sweep. This zone is seen as a short-term reaction point where price may consolidate or bounce slightly before continuing lower. However, the dashed black line projection suggests that this support is not expected to hold long-term, as price is forecasted to break below it. Protected Low A previous low is labeled "Protected low," implying that it hasn’t been violated during recent downward moves. This term often refers to a structural level that, if broken, confirms a shift in market structure. In this context, the projection anticipates that price will break below this protected low, indicating a bearish intent and unlocking further downside movement. 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG) The large blue zone labeled "4H FVG" marks an imbalance or inefficiency on the 4-hour chart. This zone is referred to as a "Strong bullish 4h FVG," suggesting that once the sell-side liquidity is taken and the lower targets are met, this area is expected to act as a high-probability demand zone. Institutional traders often look for price to fill these FVGs before reversing, as they represent unmitigated institutional orders. The projected path implies that this is the ultimate downside target where price may react bullishly. Conclusion Overall, this analysis outlines a bearish short-term scenario for EUR/USD. After sweeping liquidity above recent highs, price is expected to respect the bearish order flow, break through the current support level, and move below the protected low. The ultimate downside target lies within the strong 4H FVG, where a significant bullish reaction might occur. This suggests a classic smart money play, manipulate (sweep liquidity), shift (break structure), and mitigate (return to FVG)—offering a well-structured trade idea for both intraday and swing traders. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
Short
by Youriverse
39
Bullish rise?The Fiber (EUR/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 1.1578 1st Support: 1.1278 1st Resistance: 1.1909 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
EURUSD InsightHello to all our subscribers, and welcome! Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe. Key Points - U.S. President Trump commented on the mutual tariff suspension deadline of July 9, saying, “We can do whatever we want. We could extend it, or shorten it,” leaving the door open for an extension. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that trade negotiations could be finalized by September 1, adding that agreements were nearing completion with more than 10 of the 18 major trading partners. - President Trump noted that Canada is preparing to implement a digital tax, saying, “We will halt all trade discussions with Canada and within the next seven days inform them of the tariffs they must pay to operate in the U.S.” - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for May met expectations at 2.3% year-over-year, while the Core PCE Price Index slightly exceeded expectations at 2.7% year-over-year. Key Economic Events This Week + June 30: U.K. Q1 GDP + July 1: Eurozone June CPI, Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, U.S. JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) + July 2: U.S. June ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + July 3: U.S. June Nonfarm Payrolls, U.S. June Unemployment Rate EURUSD Chart Analysis The pair is showing a steep upward trend after breaking through a previous resistance level. Further upside potential appears to remain, with the next projected target area around the 1.18500–1.19000 range. However, there is currently a resistance zone in place, making it highly likely that a short-term dip may occur before the upward trend resumes.
Long
by shawntime_academy
EURUSD H4 I Bullish BounceBased on the H4 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 1.1631, a pullback support. Our take profit is set at 1.1745, a swing high resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fib extension. The stop loss is placed at 1.1582, an overlap support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
EURUSD| - Inducement Fueling Bullish Intent📌 Pair: EURUSD 📈 Bias: Bullish 🕰 HTF View (4H): Clear bullish intent shown with a break above major external structure (higher high). Inducement remains intact—expecting that draw to price. Strong bullish momentum signals smart money positioning for more upside. 🧭 MTF Clarity (2H → 30M): 30M structure refined and leaning bullish, but using 2H for confirmation. Waiting on liquidity sweep into the OB zone for entry precision. 🎯 Entry Criteria: LTF CHoCH → Liquidity Sweep → OB Mitigation (Execution in that exact order for maximum confirmation) 🎯 Target: Structure highs above 🧠 Mindset Note: Let the inducement play out—don’t rush it. This is where patience and clarity separate a sniper from a scalper. One clean entry > 10 reactive trades. Bless Trading!
Long
by Juicemannn
SHORT ON EURUSD 📋 **TRADE PLAN FOR MT4/MT5** **Trade Type:** Sell **Entry Zone:** `1.1730 – 1.1740` (wait for rejection or bearish candlestick confirmation) **Stop Loss:** `1.1755` (above recent highs and resistance box) **Take Profit Levels:** * **TP1:** `1.1537` (previous support) * **TP2:** `1.1450` (strong demand zone) **Position Size:** Adjust based on risk management (e.g., 1–2% of account) **Risk-Reward Ratio:** * To TP1: \~1:3 * To TP2: \~1:5 ✅ **TRADE MANAGEMENT RULES** * ✅ Enter only after bearish candlestick (e.g., pin bar, engulfing) confirmation * 🔄 If SL hits, reassess higher timeframe structure * 🔒 Lock profits at TP1 (e.g., trail SL or partial close) * 🗓 Watch for high-impact news (e.g., NFP, CPI) that may affect USD volatility
Short
by Charlesik
1
here is the #forex #chart #EURUSD Cautiously bullish. EUR/USD is at $1.17155 as of June 29, 2025, up 0.20% daily and 3.76% monthly. Technicals show a bullish trend, with support at $1.1650 and resistance at $1.18-$1.19. Forecasts predict a rise to $1.174-$1.188 by month-end, driven by US dollar weakness amid Fed rate cut speculation and tariff concerns. However, mixed macroeconomic signals (core PCE at 2.7%, Eurozone Economic Sentiment at 94) and geopolitical risks (Middle East tensions, US fiscal issues) could cap gains or trigger volatility. A break above $1.1710 (127.2% Fibonacci) could target $1.20; a drop below $1.1650 risks $1.1573
Long
by akyolburak701