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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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POTENTIAL EURUSD SHORT OPPORTUNITY...POSITION TRADEHello hello TradingView family! Hope you guys are doing amazingly well! Just wanted to come on here and make another post for a potential longer term opportunity I am seeing on the major currency pair EURUSD. So put your seat belts on and let's dive in!! OK so I'm going to keep this very very simple. Not because I don't want to go in depth but because my trading is very simple and I'm just going to give it to you straight. So here are the points 1. Price is @ monthly supply 2. Price has made new highs & sitting at a monthly fib extension 3. Monthly RSI overbought conditions 4. Weekly has bearish divergence forming 5. Weekly/Daily buyer is slowing down Make sense? If not..then I know you will figure it out. Watch for price to potentially poke a little higher but nice confluences for a fall in price. Appreciate you all!
Short
by JosePips
6
EUR/USD Biases (Long, Short, and Today’s View)EUR/USD Trading Biases: Navigating Bullish Momentum and Key Resistance Zones This will be a concise market analysis essay (around 600–700 words) suitable for a financial audience, such as forex traders or analysts. Let me begin: EUR/USD Trading Biases: Navigating Bullish Momentum and Key Resistance Zones The EUR/USD pair, one of the most actively traded currency pairs in the forex market, has exhibited strong bullish momentum in recent sessions. As of June 26, 2025, the euro’s ascent against the dollar has brought it to a critical juncture, testing significant technical and psychological resistance levels. Traders are now weighing the potential for continued upside against growing signals of exhaustion and looming fundamental catalysts. Bullish Outlook: A Technically Supported Advance From a technical perspective, the bullish case for EUR/USD remains compelling. The pair is entrenched in a sustained uptrend, marked by successive breakouts above prior resistance levels and validated by daily and weekly closes above 1.1600. The current price action is converging on a crucial supply zone located between 1.1700 and 1.1900—an area historically known for triggering reversals but also pivotal in confirming trend continuation if broken convincingly. Technical indicators further bolster the bullish narrative. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), while approaching overbought territory, is still supportive of higher prices. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays a widening bullish histogram, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) confirms trend strength. Near-term resistance lies between 1.1680 and 1.1730, with potential for an extension to 1.1800 should the pair breach this upper band. On the fundamental front, improved German Ifo business sentiment data has injected optimism into the eurozone outlook. Additionally, easing geopolitical tensions and a broader risk-on sentiment in global markets have undercut the dollar's safe-haven appeal. Speculation over potential Federal Reserve rate cuts further dampens dollar strength, creating tailwinds for EUR/USD. Bearish Considerations: Resistance and Reversal Risks Despite the encouraging trend, caution is warranted. The area between 1.1700 and 1.1900 represents a major weekly order block (OB) resistance—territory where several past rallies have lost steam. Oscillators such as the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and RSI are showing signs of overextension, and the market is now vigilant for reversal patterns or signs of exhaustion. Fundamentally, while the recent Ifo data is encouraging, it remains below the key threshold of 100, reflecting lingering skepticism about the eurozone's full recovery. Moreover, upcoming U.S. economic releases, particularly GDP figures and jobless claims, could act as potential catalysts for a dollar rebound. Hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials could also tilt sentiment, especially if it dampens expectations of rate cuts. If EUR/USD fails to hold above the 1.1700–1.1730 resistance zone, a corrective move toward 1.1530–1.1500 becomes plausible. Deeper pullbacks could extend toward 1.1470 and 1.1390, especially if risk sentiment reverses or economic data surprises in favor of the dollar. Today’s View: Bullish with a Note of Caution For today, June 26, the prevailing bias remains bullish, yet increasingly cautious. The pair is testing the lower end of the 1.1700 OB zone. A decisive break and hold above this level would likely unleash further upside toward 1.1730 and 1.1800. However, overbought conditions and proximity to a known resistance zone suggest that traders should remain alert to potential rejection. Intraday strategies favor buying on dips above 1.1600–1.1635, with stops placed just below 1.1600 and targets set at 1.1700–1.1730. Conversely, short positions should only be considered if there is a clear rejection from the 1.1700–1.1730 area, with downside targets at 1.1530–1.1500 and stops above 1.1800. Conclusion The EUR/USD is currently at a pivotal inflection point. While the bullish trend is intact and supported by both technical and fundamental factors, the proximity to a major resistance zone introduces a layer of complexity. Traders must remain agile—ready to ride a breakout higher if confirmed, but equally prepared to pivot if the pair falters and signals a reversal. In markets like these, timing and confirmation are everything.
by HUGOF
EURUSD @ MAJOR SUPPLY ZONE, IS IT TIME FOR SELLERS TO TAKE OVERIn this 15m chart we have MAJOR SUPPLY AREA around 1.1723 SMALL TIME FRAME we can see heavily been REJECTED @ this SUPPLY AREA & now we kinda form DOUBLE TOP FORMATION (keep in mind DOUBLE TOP not Valid till we BREAK NECK around 1.169) My plan to take this in once we BREAK DOUBLE TOP NECK LINE AND RETESTED, OR EVEN BETTER GO IN AFTER UP WARD TREND BROKEN Still i have my eye on 1.113 but as usual will close some along the way I will update once im in Thanks
Short
by donchichi1
EURUSD SHORT TIME O LOSS TIMEI opened a long position on the EURUSD pair at 1.17195 with 10 lots. Target: 1.174 – If the target is reached, I will take profit and open a short position. At the same time, expecting USD weakness, I also opened a short position at 1.17200 with 20 lots. 1.168 to 1.166 is a strong support zone. If price reaches 1.174 and I have an active short, I will close the 1.17200 short and keep the other one. Targets and support levels are marked on the chart – I plan to close the positions gradually. I will close 75% of the position at the 1.149 support level. This is a demo account – I’m practicing in order to qualify for a funded trading account. Depending on my success rate, I plan to start trading live on Forex.
Short
by BurakA
EUR/USD | Bullish SMC SETUP EUR/USD | 15min | Bullish SMC Setup 🚀💶 Price swept Asian session lows into a higher timeframe demand zone, followed by a strong bullish BOS (Break of Structure). We’re now anticipating a pullback into the FVG (Fair Value Gap) + LQC (liquidated candle) and demand zone for potential continuation to the upside. The entry idea is based on: 🔹 Liquidity Grab (sell-side sweep) 🔹 BOS confirmation 🔹 FVG + Demand confluence 🔹 Expecting bullish continuation toward previous high and premium zone. Waiting for price to tap the zone before riding the wave up! 📈 You can wait for confirmation on 5min TF after tap into POI Let’s see if it delivers. #SMC #EURUSD #Liquidity #SmartMoney #FXTradingClub #OrderFlow #Sam_trades_smc
Long
by sam_trades_smc
Market next move 🔁 Disruption of the Current Analysis 1. False Breakout Scenario The chart assumes a bullish move breaking resistance before a bearish reversal. Disruption: This could be a false breakout, where the price appears to break above resistance but lacks strong volume and momentum. Traders get trapped long, and the price quickly reverses below resistance, invalidating the bullish leg entirely. 2. Stronger Uptrend Continuation Despite calling for a bearish target, the overall trend appears strong with higher highs and higher lows. Disruption: Instead of a retracement, EUR/USD could break through the resistance zone convincingly, possibly reaching 1.1750–1.1800, supported by: Increasing volume Bullish candles closing above resistance No signs of bearish divergence on RSI/MACD (if added) 3. Fundamental Factors The chart ignores macro data. Disruption: If upcoming EU economic data is stronger than expected, or if US data disappoints, the euro could strengthen further. Upcoming events with the euro and US flags suggest possible volatility. 4. Volume Contradiction Recent bullish candles are supported by strong volume, suggesting accumulation. Disruption: If smart money is accumulating positions, this would support further bullish continuation, not reversal.
Long
by Gold_Free_Signals
EUR/USD RALLY CREATES NEW BUY ZONE!Hey traders so continuing to watch the Euro. Don't you just love it when a trade plan comes together and everything goes as you expect? Don't get too excited normally we only get our forecasts right around 50% of the time! However this one is working out well so far so now where to from here? The Trend is your Friend until it bends or breaks. Same plan wait for the pullback or profit taking from this rally when it drops buy again at the trendline. Im not going to say it's always this easy but you don't need indicators to draw a straight line and connect 3 bars. Trading can be simple or complicated the easier we keep it the better imo.😁 Place stop below trendline or support as US Dollar Continues to weaken this trend should continue to move in our favor. If Bearish I normally don't recommend counter trend trading because it can be difficult. So unless I see the US Dollar Index Bottom I don't think the trend will have any major changes. Another thing if you are still long you can enter more positions on this next pullback. That way you can build a larger position in a trending market. It's like playing the waiting game be patient and eventually she will come to you! Always use Risk Management! (Just in we are wrong in our analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.) Good Luck & Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃 Clifford
Long
by TradeTheIndex
EURUSD Sell- Go for sell - Refine entry with smaller SL for better RR, if you know how - keep looking for sell even if price goes one more up A Message To Traders: I’ll be sharing high-quality trade setups for a period time. No bullshit, no fluff, no complicated nonsense — just real, actionable forecast the algorithm is executing. If you’re struggling with trading and desperate for better results, follow my posts closely. Check out my previously posted setups and forecasts — you’ll be amazed by the high accuracy of the results. "I Found the Code. I Trust the Algo. Believe Me, That’s It."
Short
by Vincent-DA
EURUSD – Short-Term Top Signal, Sellers Getting ReadyEURUSD has reached the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.17190 and immediately faced selling pressure. This zone previously acted as a strong reversal area, and with a rejection candlestick and a forming FVG, the risk of a downward correction is increasing. Currently, the price is moving sideways just below the high, forming lower highs — suggesting a possible distribution pattern before breaking the bullish structure. If price breaks below the FVG zone near 1.165–1.166, the move could extend toward the technical target at 1.15900 — aligning with the channel bottom and a historical liquidity area. Recent fundamental drivers: U.S. economic data remains strong (Jobless Claims, Core PCE) → supports USD strength The ECB remains cautious and hasn’t committed to further rate hikes → slightly weakens the euro
Short
by Rocky_trade_
Cycle Low Confirmed – Strong Upside Move Starting!Here's what I notice: - Price has **bounced very strongly** from the cycle low. - You timed it very nicely — the upswing started just as the cycle predicted a bottom. - If the cycle timing continues, this move could extend for several candles into the next cycle top. **Summary of the New Setup:** ✔ Cycle low confirmed with bullish breakout ✔ Strong impulsive move off the bottom ✔ Favourable timing for long setups ✔ Potential for multiple days of upside if cycle rhythm holds This new chart you uploaded looks like it's using cycle analysis — those green semi-circles suggest you're mapping time-based cycles! Awesome! 😎 Here's the TradingView post draft for your **Cycle Timing** idea: --- # ⏳ Cycle Low Confirmed – Strong Upside Move Starting! **Summary:** Perfect timing off the projected cycle low! Price action has confirmed the cycle theory with a strong bullish breakout. Based on the rhythm of previous cycles, we could see sustained upside momentum into the next cycle peak. **Setup Details:** - **Entry:** Current levels (~1.13647) after confirmation of cycle low. - **Stop-loss:** Below the recent low (~1.09000) to give the trade room to breathe. - **Target:** Look for strength toward 1.20+ depending on price behavior near mid-cycle. - **Risk/Reward:** Excellent — trend in favor, supported by cycle timing. **Technical Factors:** ✅ Cycle Low perfectly aligned with time-based projection ✅ Strong bullish candle closing above recent consolidation ✅ Momentum shift supports continuation higher ✅ Cycle suggests multiple sessions of upside potential --- **Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is the best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free, and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible.** --- **⚠️ Disclaimer:** This is *NOT financial advice*. Always do your own research and manage risk properly!
Long
by TONYMONTANA87
OTEUM EXPERT CALL: EUR/USD – June Finale Setup We’re eyeing the last intramonth swing of June, expected to bleed into early July. Our playbook: let the market cough up one final risk-off spike on the Iran headlines 🌪️📰, then scoop up positions in the value zone (red box) for the next bullish leg 🚀. Patience first, trigger later 🕰️🎯—wait for price to hit the sweet spot, load up, and ride the firework into summer. Stay nimble; geo-shock headlines can flip the board fast ⚠️. #EURUSD #Intramonth #RiskOff #ValueHunt #OTEUM
Long
by Karel_OTEUM