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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EUR/USD Analysis : Bullish Reversal – Volume Absorption & Target🧠 Market Overview: EUR/USD has followed a flawless Market Maker Cycle, moving from manipulation to expansion. The chart shows institutional behavior through liquidity grabs, volume absorption, and structural breaks, confirming that big players are in full control. The current price action signals bullish strength targeting the next high-probability reversal zone, but let’s break this down from the very beginning. 🔍 Key Chart Phases and Insights: 1️⃣ Massive Bearish Impulse – Liquidity Sweep Phase At first glance, the chart shows an aggressive drop — a strong bearish leg that looks like market weakness. ❗ But in reality, this is the liquidity sweep phase. Here’s what likely happened: Price ran below key lows Hit stop losses of early buyers Created “fake” bearish sentiment Built sell-side liquidity for institutions to buy from 🔑 This isn’t weakness — it’s a setup. 2️⃣ FMFR (Final Move for Reversal) + Instant Reaction At the end of that drop, the market printed a sharp bullish engulfing candle from the lows — this is known as the Final Move for Reversal (FMFR). This marks: The end of the accumulation phase Entry of smart money into the market The beginning of a new bullish cycle The size and speed of this move indicate high-volume orders were filled — classic sign of institutional presence. 3️⃣ 5x Demand Push – Start of Expansion Phase After the FMFR, price explodes upward with 5 consecutive bullish candles. This is your expansion phase — the market is moving fast, breaking structure, and flipping direction. Key takeaways from this leg: Strong displacement confirms a new trend High momentum candles reflect institutional interest Price breaks above previous structure levels 📈 This is no longer random — it’s planned and executed by bigger players. 4️⃣ Volume Absorption in Tight Wedge – Smart Money Re-Accumulation After the breakout, price doesn’t just continue flying — instead, it compresses in a tight triangle. This is a key phase called volume absorption or re-accumulation. What’s happening here: Institutions are absorbing retail orders Low volume = no resistance = easier breakout Price is “charging” before the next move 🔋 Think of this like coiling a spring — it’s getting ready to pop again. 5️⃣ Bullish Pattern Repeats – MMC Confirmed Interestingly, we now see the same bullish pattern forming again on the right side of the chart, similar to the first FMFR. This is powerful because: Pattern repetition means consistent order flow Smart money is using the same blueprint It gives us confidence to follow the trend ⚠️ When the same bullish setup happens twice — it’s not by chance. 6️⃣ Structural Mapping – Road to Reversal Zone On the far right, we’ve entered clean bullish structure, making higher highs and higher lows. We are now targeting: The next Reversal Zone near 1.16800 This zone could act as resistance or another trap A strong reaction from this zone can trigger either profit-taking or short-term reversal Price is currently in the "continuation" part of MMC, heading toward premium levels. 📈 Trading Plan Based on This Setup: ✅ Primary Bullish Plan: Price respects current structure Breaks minor highs with strong volume Entry on retracement to broken structure Target: 1.16800 reversal zone ⚠️ Alternate Bearish Setup (If Price Rejects Reversal Zone): Sharp rejection from reversal zone Break of structure (BOS) on lower timeframe Entry on lower high retest Target: Liquidity areas below 1.16200 🧵 Conclusion: This EUR/USD chart is a blueprint of institutional market flow. From the liquidity sweep, to volume absorption, to repeating bullish patterns, we’re seeing a textbook Market Maker Cycle (MMC) play out. Here’s what makes this chart powerful: ✔️ Volume confirms structure ✔️ Reversal zones are clearly defined ✔️ Same bullish pattern = smart money roadmap ✔️ Trade setups are clean with defined risk ✅ This is the kind of setup you wait days for — don’t rush, follow structure, and execute with confirmation.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
1
EURUSD Will Go Down! Short! Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD. Time Frame: 3h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 1.161. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 1.155 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
2
EURUSD The 4H MA200 distinguishes bullish from bearish.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a (blue) 2-month Channel Up since the May 12 Low and it just broke below its 4H MA100 (green trend-line). The previous two Bearish Legs of this pattern bottomed (made a Higher Low) on or just above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, the price is very close to the most optimal buy level of this pattern and as long as it holds, we expect to start the new Bullish Leg and target the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (1.20000 our Target just below), which is in line with the previous two Bullish Legs. If however the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) breaks, we will take the loss on that long and go short as technically the price should seek the bottom of the (dotted) wider Channel Up. Our Target on that occasion will be 1.14000, right at the top of the High Volatility Zone. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
EURUSD: focus on inflationThis week was calm when it comes to currently important US macro data. The most important event was related to the release of the FOMC meeting minutes from the June session. There was no new information revealed in the Minutes, which has not already been communicated with the public. The Fed is aimed to maintain flexibility around future rate cuts. They will most probably remain on hold until the economic data more clearly supports a slowdown. Analysts continue to be of the opinion that the Fed will most probably make the next rate cut somewhere in late 2025 and into 2026. Such opinion is supported with ongoing risks of both rising inflation and unemployment due to introduced trade tariffs, putting challenge to Fed officials. Industrial Production in Germany during May increased by 1,2% for the month, which was much better from estimated 0%. Retail Sales in the Euro Zone dropped in May by -0,7%, bringing the indicator to the yearly level of 1,8%. Balance of Trade in Germany in May reached euro 18,4B, better from expected euro 15,5B. Inflation rate in Germany, final for June, was standing at the level of 0% for the month and 2% for the year. Both figures were in line with market expectations. Wholesale prices in Germany in June were higher by 0,2% and 0,9% on a yearly basis. Markets favored US Dollar during the previous week, where the eurusd was traded within a range from 1,1790 down to 1,1670. The RSI moved from the overbought market side, ending the week at the level of 57. As long as the indicator is holding above the level of 50, there will be no indication that the market has started to clearly eye the oversold market side. At the same time, the MA50 continues to strongly diverge from MA200, within an indication of a potential slowdown in the coming period, as well as potential crossovers. Although this week was a relatively calm one, the week ahead brings some important US macro data, including June inflation, PPI and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. Considering current market sensitivity on any negative movements in inflation figures, the week ahead might bring some increased volatility on financial markets. As per current charts, eurusd has some space for a further move toward the downside, at least till the level of 1,1650. There is also potential for a short term reversal indicated on charts, with some potential that 1,1750 might be tested during the week. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Industrial Production in the Euro Zone in May, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in July in the EuroZone and Germany, USD: Inflation Rate in June, Producers Price Index in June, Retail Sales in June, Building Permits preliminary for June, Housing Starts in June, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for July.
by XBTFX
EURUSD Testing Patience – Bearish Trend Not Over YetEURUSD – Overview EURUSD continues to trade under pressure amid bearish momentum, respecting key technical levels. The price maintains bearish momentum as long as it trades below 1.1745, with downside targets at 1.1627 and 1.1557. A retest of 1.1745 is possible and considered normal in this structure. However, if the price stabilizes below 1.1684, it will likely continue dropping toward the support targets. To shift back to a bullish bias, the pair must break and hold above 1.1745. Pivot Line: 1.1695 Support Levels: 1.1627 – 1.1557 Resistance Levels: 1.1745 – 1.1810 previous idea:
Short
by SroshMayi
EUR/USD Fibonacci Resistance - Rising Wedge BreakEUR/USD came into Q3 with a full head of steam, setting a fresh three-year high on the first day of the new quarter. But bulls couldn't make much progress after that and a key Fibonacci retracement continued to hold buyers at bay, until eventually sellers were able to take-over and make a more noticeable dent after this morning's CPI data. The breakout in USD helped to prod a breakdown in EUR/USD, and bears now have an open door to run a short-term trend. There's now resistance potential at prior support of 1.1631 and 1.1663, and there's deeper support potential at 1.1543 and 1.1457. - js
by FOREXcom
EURUSD Elliott Wave: Top in PlaceExecutive Summary Wave 1 rally from January 2025 to July 2025 appears complete Decline to 1.1170 and possibly 1.08 in wave 2. The support shelf near 1.1170 may contain the decline. We now have enough evidence in place to consider a medium-term (or longer) top in place for EURUSD. The weekly chart above shows a rally from the January 2025 low that reached the upper parallel at the July high. This rally appears to be complete and a sideways to lower consolidation is likely underway. On January 24, we forecasted a rally with a second target of 1.18. EURUSD reached the target topping at 1.1830. Now, it’s time to flip the scrip as a correction is likely underway to correct that strong rally. The 6-month rally in EURUSD appears to have ended this month and a correction is likely underway to 1.1170 and possibly lower levels. The top of EURUSD on July 1 is labeled as wave 1. The decline underway appears incomplete and would be wave 2. Within the wave 1, wave ((v)) measures equal to wave ((i)) at 1.1832, just a couple of pips within the actual high. Additionally, there is RSI divergence within the wave ((v)) and wave ((iii)) highs. This is a common pattern within a fifth wave of an Elliott wave impulse pattern. The next trend (lower) will likely carry to below 1.1170. Near this level is the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the 6-month rally. Additionally, there is a support shelf of broken resistance and congestion appearing between 1.1033 - 1.1275. At the lower end of that price zone is a broken trend line dating back to 2023. Therefore, this price zone will offer up a strong level of support that may launch the next rally or at least a small bounce. BOTTOM LINE The Elliott wave impulse pattern from January to July 2025 appears over. A downward correction appears to have begun and may visit 1.1170 and possibly lower levels. As the downward trend takes hold, we’ll review its structure to determine where we are at within the larger wave sequence.
Short
by JWagnerFXTrader
EUR/USD –Bullish Flag After Long Term Trend Shift: Is 1.20 Next?📌 In my previous EUR/USD analysis, I mentioned that the long-term trend likely reversed, and we could see a move toward the 1.23 zone in the medium to longer term. That view is playing out. Recently, the pair printed a new local high above 1.18, confirming the trend change. 📉 After this rise, EUR/USD pulled back –but the structure is clearly corrective: overlapping and a classic bullish flag formation. What's next? This correction looks close to completion, and bulls may soon return to push toward the key 1.20 level. Trading Plan: The 1.1620–1.1650 area stands out as a strong confluence zone – ideal for looking for buying opportunities. The trend has changed. The setup is forming. Now it’s about timing. Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
EUR/USD Sells from 1.17200 back downWeekly Outlook: EUR/USD (EU) This week, my bias on EUR/USD is similar to GBP/USD, as both pairs have been following a consistent bearish trend. Based on this structure, I’ll be watching to see if price begins a retracement back into an area of supply. I’ve marked out the 8-hour supply zone, which sits at a premium level and was responsible for the last break of structure to the downside. If price retraces into this zone, I’ll look for potential sell confirmations on the lower time frames. If price doesn’t tap into the supply zone first, I’ll then shift my focus to the 8-hour demand zone below. In that case, I’ll watch closely for signs of accumulation and a bullish reaction from this level, which could signal the start of a rally. Confluences for EUR/USD Sells: ✅ Bearish trend has been consistent for the past few weeks. ✅ Breaks of structure have formed new supply zones to trade from. ✅ Liquidity exists below current price, which may be targeted first. ✅ The lower demand zone remains unmitigated, suggesting further downside movement. 📌 On the way down toward demand, I expect price to form another break of structure to the downside. The plan is to ride the sells down into demand, then look for potential buy opportunities if price begins to accumulate and react. Let’s stay sharp and disciplined — have a solid trading week, everyone! 📊
Short
by Hassan_fx
EUR/USD Holding Support — Watching for Bullish ReactionHi Everyone, Since our last update, EUR/USD continues to range near the 1.16680 support level. We’re watching for buying interest to emerge above the key 1.16450 zone, which has acted as a critical level for the broader structure. Should price manage to stabilise and form a base here, there’s potential for a move back towards the highlighted resistance area around 1.17450. A clear reaction from support could confirm renewed buying interest and set the stage for a retest of last week’s highs. Our broader outlook remains unchanged: as long as price holds above 1.16450, we continue to look for the pair to build momentum for another move higher in the coming sessions. A decisive break above last week’s high could attract fresh buying interest, paving the way for a push towards the 1.19290 area and ultimately 1.20000. We'll be watching closely to see if this recovery gains traction and whether buyers can sustain the move above resistance. The longer-term view remains bullish, provided price continues to respect the key support zone. We’ll keep updating you through the week as the structure unfolds and share how we’re managing our active positions. Thanks again for all the likes/boosts, comments and follows — we really appreciate the support! All the best for the rest of the week. Trade safe. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
EUR/USD Weekly AMD Breakdown | VolanX Protocol Signal 🧠 EUR/USD Weekly AMD Breakdown | VolanX Protocol Signals Distribution Phase Active 📍 EUR/USD | 1W Chart 📅 July 17, 2025 🧭 Structured by: WaverVanir International LLC 🔗 Powered by VolanX Protocol + DSS Architecture 🧨 Strategic Context: This isn’t a random retracement—it’s the completion of a full AMD cycle (Accumulation → Manipulation → Distribution), and EUR/USD just exited the manipulation high, confirming the start of a long-term markdown phase. 🧠 Pattern Alignment: ✅ Green Box = Accumulation Zone (Rangebound 2023–early 2025) 🔶 Orange Box = Manipulation Trap (Spring sweep + emotional lows) ⚠️ Grey Box = Distribution (Fast repricing into liquidity pockets) 🔻 Red Line = Markdown begins Embedded schematic confirms the AMD logic. This is how institutions engineer macro turns. 📉 VolanX Bearish Targets (2025–2026 Outlook): 🎯 First Target: 1.1022 – Fibonacci & OB confluence 🎯 Secondary Target: 1.0828 – Elliott Wave 3 full extension 🎯 Macro Target: 0.9500 – 2026 narrative climax zone “Distribution is never announced; it’s only visible in hindsight. But VolanX sees it unfolding in real time.” ⚠️ Invalidations: A weekly close back above 1.1850 would void this structure. Momentum confirmation pending from macro catalysts (ECB dovish, Fed delay). 🎯 Trade Strategy: Bias: Strong short Entry Zone: Any rally into 1.1700–1.1800 = premium rejection zone Execution: Build position in tranches, use volume spikes & SMC CHoCHs as confirmation Risk: Tight stop above 1.1850 (structure invalidation) 🔐 VolanX Strategic Note: 📡 The model confirms that EUR/USD is entering a structurally engineered distribution phase, driven by smart money exit flows, macro policy divergence, and a resurgent USD. Wave (3) compression is already under way. This is where conviction counts. ⚠️ Educational content only. Not financial advice. #EURUSD #AMD #SmartMoney #MacroTrading #VolanX #WaverVanir #ForexStrategy #LiquidityTrap #DSS #DistributionPhase
Short
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
EURUSD analysis – 1H OB Setup ✅ Green zones = 1H Buy Order Blocks Clean plan: Wait for price to reach the green circle zone (1.1600 – 1.1650 OB). Once there: ✅ Drop to LTF (5M / 3M) and wait for: Price reaction to the OB zone BOS / CHoCH structure confirmation Strong bullish candle for clean entry Then, enter with stop below the OB zone. 🎯 Targets: First TP: 1.1690 – 1.1700 Second TP: higher previous highs if momentum continues ⚠️ Let price enter your zone, get your LTF confirmations, and then take your entry with discipline. 📊 ProfitaminFX | Gold, BTC & EUR/USD 📚 Daily setups & educational trades
Long
by ProfitaminFX
EUR/USD Bearish Reversal Confirmed – Smart Money Distribution Ne📅 Posted July 18, 2025 | 🔍 VolanX Protocol Insight 📉 Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has rejected the premium supply zone (1.17–1.18) after failing to maintain structure above the red trendline. Price is now breaking down with bearish pressure building toward equilibrium at 1.09544. 📊 VolanX DSS Breakdown: 🔴 Premium Rejection confirms distribution by institutional players. 📈 Trendline Violation + SMC BOS = Shift to markdown phase. 🧠 VolanX Signal Score: Neutral → Bearish → Favoring short plays targeting deeper liquidity blocks. 🌐 Macro Narrative (Q3 2025): 🇺🇸 USD Strength: Driven by sticky inflation and delayed Fed cuts (Q4 expected). 🇪🇺 Eurozone Softness: Germany's PMI fell below 50; ECB’s cautious tone continues. 🏦 Rate Divergence Play: US-EU real yield gap widening → capital flowing into USD. 🎯 Probabilistic Target Path (Yellow Line): ✅ 1.1500: First liquidity gap ✅ 1.1150: Midblock retrace 🎯 1.09544: Equilibrium & High-Confidence Institutional Re-entry Zone 🛡️ VolanX Protocol Note: This forecast is part of the WaverVanir Smart Futures Playbook. All trades are structured with AI-defined probability zones, institutional positioning layers, and macro-event syncing. The VolanX engine will reassess upon retest of the 1.1500 mid-zone. #EURUSD #Forex #SmartMoney #MacroFX #VolanX #WaverVanir #LiquidityZones #InstitutionalTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #ForexSignals #DXY #Eurozone #FED #ECB #OptionsFlow
Short
by Wavervanir_International_LLC