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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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Lingrid | EURUSD Bullish Trend ContinuesFX:EURUSD is holding a bullish structure inside an upward channel after bouncing from the 1.1670 demand zone. The current retracement appears corrective, and buyers may step in again near the confluence of the trendline and horizontal support. If confirmed, the price is expected to push toward the 1.1885 resistance and the upper channel target at 1.1900. 📈 Key Levels Buy zone: 1.1650–1.1680 (trendline + key support) Sell trigger: break below 1.1600 Target: 1.1885 – 1.1900 zone Buy trigger: bullish reversal candle near 1.1700 💡 Risks Failure to hold trendline support could lead to deeper retracement 1.1885 may cap upside if momentum fades Bearish divergence could emerge if price surges too fast If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
Long
by Lingrid
25
EURUSD Will Go Lower! Sell! Here is our detailed technical review for EURUSD. Time Frame: 4h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 1.168. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 1.159 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
EUR/USD Bearish Wave Outlook Into September 2025EUR/USD Bearish Wave Outlook Into September 2025 Technical + Elliott Wave + Macro View EUR/USD has likely completed a major top at 1.18300, which aligns with the 1.0 Fibonacci extension. This level acted as a liquidity sweep before reversing sharply, marking the top of Wave (1) in the current Elliott sequence. We're now entering Wave (3) to the downside—a high-momentum leg often driven by macro confirmation. Price has broken the ascending channel and rejected the 0.786 and 0.886 retracement zones. With lower highs forming, the structure is weakening. The next likely target sits around 1.10223, a key Fibonacci and order block confluence. If momentum accelerates, EUR/USD could continue toward 1.08289, completing the full Wave (2). From a macro lens, the divergence between the Fed and ECB continues to widen. The U.S. economy remains resilient with sticky inflation and strong yields supporting the dollar. In contrast, Europe is showing signs of stagnation, with Germany and France struggling to post meaningful growth. This favors continued downside on the pair. Expect potential relief rallies into 1.1400–1.1550, but these are likely to be sold unless a fundamental catalyst shifts sentiment. Bias: Bearish Targets: 1.1022 > 1.0828 Invalidation: Clean break and close above 1.1700 — 🔔 Watch for volume spikes and failed reclaims of structure as confirmation. DSS signals aligned. #EURUSD #Forex #ElliottWave #SmartMoneyConcepts #MacroTrading #WaverVanir #VolanX #DollarStrength #FXForecast #TechnicalAnalysis
Short
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
EUR/USD long: Save the dateHello traders I have entered into a long position at 1.1665. The charts show a base being built right around that level. DXY is ticking down but US 10Y yield is steady. Bitcoin at an all time high is in my opinion not a sign of risk on but rather USD liquidation in favor of BTC. Gold has just broken above the last daily high. There are rumors making the rounds that FOMC Powell is considering resigning which will be negative for the USD. Keep in mind, Jerome Powell is the spokesperson for the FOMC, not the only voting member. 7/30/2025 FOMC rate decision 7/31/2025 The Federal Appeals Court starts hearing arguments for the use of IEEPA to impose sweeping tariffs that was declared unlawful by the Court of International Trade located in Manhattan, NY. August 2025 More threatened tariffs may start. Things are heating up. Best of luck.
by jvrfxalerts
EURUSD Short re entry, 14 JulyHTF Downtrend with Clean LTF Setup Bias remains bearish with HTF downtrend, W imbalance resting above, and 4H 50EMA close to our zone. 📉 Confluence: Textbook LTF structure, expecting LH → LL DXY reacting from 15m POI + Asia low to fill 15m Extreme OB + 5m OB as entry zone Clean 1m BOS confirming sellers stepping in → add another 50% 🎯 Entry: 50% tap of 5m OB after 1m BOS 🛡️ SL: Above LH structure 📌 TP: At least 1:3 RR down to Asia low ⚠️ Minor risk with W imbalance above, but strong trend and confirmations to support the trade. 3 hours ago Trade active We got an 1mBOS from the 15m POI Got 2 entry points now : The one from the 5m OB marked out on the photo and one at the lower 5m that created the break. Will see what happens
Short
by sTax11
EURUSD Short, 14 JulyHTF Downtrend with Clean LTF Setup Bias remains bearish with HTF downtrend, W imbalance resting above, and 4H 50EMA close to our zone. 📉 Confluence: Textbook LTF structure, expecting LH → LL DXY reacting from 15m POI + Asia low to fill 15m Extreme OB + 5m OB as entry zone Clean 1m BOS confirming sellers stepping in → add another 50% 🎯 Entry: 50% tap of 5m OB after 1m BOS 🛡️ SL: Above LH structure 📌 TP: At least 1:3 RR down to Asia low ⚠️ Minor risk with W imbalance above, but strong trend and confirmations to support the trade.
Short
by sTax11
EURUSD – Bullish Momentum ReturnsEURUSD is gradually breaking free from downward pressure as it breaches the short-term accumulation structure, aiming for the resistance zone around 1.1720. On the chart, a clear bullish trend is emerging, supported by FVG signals reinforcing the recovery. On the news front, expectations are rising that the European Central Bank will maintain a tighter policy stance for longer, as core inflation in the Eurozone remains elevated. Meanwhile, the USD is under corrective pressure following last week’s lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data. Upcoming statements from ECB and Fed officials today will be key in determining the next move for this currency pair. Unless a surprise arises from the U.S. side, EURUSD is likely to sustain its short-term upward momentum and test the next technical resistance area.
Long
by Rocky_trade_
EUR/USD Reversal Ahead? COT + DXY Strength Signal Price has broken below the ascending channel that started in mid-May. The current candle is rejecting the weekly supply zone (1.17566–1.18319), leaving a significant upper wick. Daily RSI is losing strength but has not yet reached extreme levels. A key daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) lies between 1.1600 and 1.1480, with the first potential downside target at 1.14802, which aligns with support and the FVG zone. A deeper bearish continuation could push price towards 1.1350, but only if the FVG lows are clearly broken. 📊 COT Data (CME - Euro FX & USD Index) Euro FX Net long: +15,334 Commercials increased both longs (+13,550) and shorts (+9,913) → mild divergence. Non-Commercials (speculators) increased shorts (+4,786) more than longs (+1,188) → speculative bias tilting bearish. USD Index Strong net long accumulation across all trader types: +4,597 net. Non-Commercials added +3,590 longs, with only a minor increase in shorts. → USD strength continues, reinforcing potential weakness in EUR/USD. 🧠 Retail Sentiment 67% of retail traders are short EUR/USD → typically a contrarian bullish signal. However, the price is already showing distribution, not accumulation, so we may see price push lower first to trap remaining retail longs, invalidating the contrarian signal in the short term. 📅 Seasonality July is historically bullish, especially on the 2Y (+0.0142) and 10Y (+0.0106) averages. However, the 15Y and 20Y averages show a much more moderate performance (+0.007 / +0.0025). Based on current price action, the seasonal rally may have already played out with the run-up to 1.1830. A correction now seems likely, even if the broader macro remains supportive mid-term. 🧩 Conclusion Despite historically bullish seasonality for July, both price action and COT data indicate distribution with early signs of reversal. Retail sentiment is too skewed short for a major breakdown just yet, but the technicals support a short-term pullback toward more balanced levels. USD strength from COT and DXY structure reinforces a corrective short bias for now.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
11