USDTBTC trade ideas
BTC/USDT Technical Analysis Market Overview
Bitcoin is currently trading at $118,788, with an intraday high of $119,311. The market has recently tested a major resistance zone and is showing signs of a potential pullback toward a key demand zone before a possible continuation to higher levels.
Projected Scenario (Bullish Bias)
Expected pullback to the support zone around $105K – $108K.
If price holds and shows a bullish reversal, a breakout above $124K is expected.
Primary upside target: $142,807 (Fibonacci projection / potential new high).
The Setup: Bullish Breaker in Play!Yesterday, BTC smashed into a strong bullish breaker and bounced like a champ. Today, it’s retracing back to this key level, setting up for what I expect to be another explosive buy reaction. Why? Because this breaker is rock-solid, and the price action is giving us all the right signals! Plus, it’s Friday—the last trading day of the week—and I’m betting BTC will stretch its legs to cover the weekly range. 🏃♂️
🎯 Trade Details: Where to Jump In
Buy Area: Right now, the price is teasing the breaker zone.
Stop Loss: Protect your capital with a stop loss at around ~117,700.
Target: We’re aiming for the Buyside Liquidity sitting pretty around 121,000. That’s a juicy move with solid risk-reward potential! 💪
🧠 Why This Trade Makes Sense
Bullish Breaker Strength: This level has proven itself as a springboard for price action.
Weekly Range Play: Fridays often see BTC push to cover its weekly range, and we’re in prime position to catch it.
Liquidity Grab: The Buyside Liquidity at 121,000 is like a magnet for price—let’s ride it there!
⚠️ Risk Management Reminder
Always trade smart! Use proper position sizing, stick to your risk management rules, and don’t go all-in like it’s a casino. Keep those stops tight to avoid getting wrecked by any sudden volatility. 😎
💬 Join the Conversation!
What do you think of this setup? Are you jumping on this BTC train or waiting for more confirmation? Drop your thoughts in the comments below! 👇 Also, if you like this idea, smash that LIKE button ❤️ and follow for more trade ideas to keep your portfolio poppin’! 🚀
Happy trading, and let’s stack those pips! 💰
#BTC #CryptoTrading #BuyTrade #Bullish #TradingView
Where Could Bitcoin Make Its Cycle Top? Model and ABCD AlignedWith the breakout above resistance around 110,000, Bitcoin’s rally appears to be back on track. If you've been following our crypto analysis, either here or on our website, you’ll know our target range for this bull cycle is between 135,000 and 150,000, with the top of the range possibly extending further depending on the strength of the final wave.
Now, a possible ABCD pattern is forming, with point D potentially landing at either 135,000 or 150,000. A coincidence? Maybe, maybe not.
How Did We Arrive at the 135K–150K Target?
We based this range on historical halving cycle returns:
Halving Year - Return to Cycle Top
2012 - 9,076%
2016 - 2,122% (↓ 4.27x)
2020 - 541% (↓ 3.92x)
Two things stand out:
Each cycle has shown diminishing returns.
The rate of decline appears roughly consistent, dropping by around 4x each time—but slightly less with each cycle.
So depending on the multiplier used:
If returns fall by 4.27x again → target: 135K
If reduced by 4x → target: 140K
If reduced by 3.92x → target: 142K
If the rate of reduction itself slows (difference of 0.35 between 4.27 and 3.92) → target: 150K
While the sample size is too small, we believe the model holds reasonable logic with fundamental backing from various metrics.
The chart now shows a possible ABCD pattern:
If it becomes a classic AB = CD structure, point D could form near 135K.
If it becomes an extended ABCD (with CD = AB × 1.272), then point D could reach just above 150K.
These technical targets align closely with our halving model projections, increasing our confidence in the 135K–150K range as a likely top zone for this cycle.
Also, please check our earlier post for possible altseason start. A correlation between BTC/ETH and Gold/Silver might give some tips about possible Ether surge.
Bitcoin Bullish, but a Correction Might Be AheadHello traders!
Obviously, Bitcoin has a strong bullish momentum.
However, after noticing a minor shift in market structure, we may see a correction toward the 112,000 area.
If the supply area doesn’t break, we can look for a sell position here.
#BTC #Bitcoin
BTC third tap incoming? Recently, BTC has traded for a large amount of time in ranging environments. These ranges have started with a local range high and then an initial 3-tap accumulation (i.e., a local low and then two sweeps of that low) before making a solid attempt at the range highs. The sweeps of the lows are meant to shake people out and provide fuel to try to break higher. The previous two times, that initial attempt failed and the price was sent lower to put in a second 3-tap accumulation at lower prices.
Will the current price move back down to put in the 3rd tap of the current relatively small accumulation? That is my base case. I believe we will see some lower prices locally to put in the 3rd tap. I think the Bitcoin Swing Trade Indicator (BSTI) will fire off green one more time and then we will then make a run to try to break out of this current massive range (that started last year in November). This current range is fairly small, so it is not worth it to me to sell here to try to buy lower.
The bigger question is: Will we have enough fuel to durably break out of this range after the 3rd tap of the current accumulation (green line) or are we destined to repeat the pattern of the last two bigger ranges (red line), one of which we are still in? I personally believe we will break out after the smaller range 3rd tap (the green line) based on the larger context of cycle theory, how long we have been in this range, and how the current small range is part of the larger range starting back in November 2024.
It will be interesting to see what happens.
Da_Prof
Note that TV won't allow publication of a private/unpublished indicator anymore or I would have shown the BSTI, which is now published as invite only. It's implementation is too complicated to publish openly, so I don't feel comfortable doing that. If you want access, please DM me on TradingView. Thanks.
BTC sideways above 115k💎 BTC PLAN UPDATE (July 17)
NOTABLE NEWS ABOUT BTC
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Recovers as Trump Steps In to Revive Crypto Legislation Momentum
Bitcoin (BTC) saw a mild recovery, trading around $119,000 at the time of writing on Wednesday, after falling nearly 2% the previous day. This rebound followed an announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday morning, stating that the GENIUS Act is ready to be passed by the House during the legislative “Crypto Week”, sparking optimism in the crypto market. Furthermore, institutional demand continues to grow, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording over $400 million in inflows on Tuesday, extending the growth streak since July 2.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
🧠 Pattern Overview:
The chart clearly displays an Elliott Wave pattern (1) → (2) → (3) → (4) → (5) along with Fibonacci Retracement and Extension levels, helping to identify potential support and resistance zones.
1. Elliott Waves:
Wave (3) was completed around the $122,144 zone and the market is currently in the corrective wave (4).
Wave (5) is expected to move upward with targets at:
• 1.618 Fibonacci Extension: ~$127,404
• Or further: ~$130,747
2. Support Zone (grey area below):
Located around $115,000 – $116,000, which is:
• The 0.5 – 0.618 retracement of Wave (3)
• Aligned with the EMA200 and dotted black trendline support.
If the price falls into this area, it’s highly likely to bounce back and form Wave (5).
3. Danger Zone if Broken:
If this support fails, price may fall deeper to:
• $113,200 (0.786 retracement),
• Or even lower: $111,600 – $111,800
4. Potential Scenarios:
Two main outcomes:
• Continued Uptrend: Price bounces from the support zone and heads toward $127,000 – $130,000
• Breakdown: If the support breaks, a deeper decline may occur, breaking the wave structure.
Follow the channel for continuous and up-to-date analysis on XAUUSD, CURRENCIES, and BTC.
Bitcoin Forever Bitcoin's Technical Trajectory: Analysis for Q3-Q4 2025
Breaking New Records: Bitcoin's Path Beyond the July Peak
With Bitcoin currently trading near historical highs after reaching its all-time high of $123,218 in July 2025, we find ourselves in unprecedented territory. This comprehensive technical analysis examines Bitcoin's potential trajectory through the remainder of 2025, leveraging multiple analytical frameworks to identify probable price targets and key levels.
Current Market Context
Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable ascent in 2025, climbing from around $85,000 in January to establish a new all-time high of $123,218 in July. After this peak, we've seen a period of consolidation with price action forming a potential bull flag pattern between $117,000-$120,000. This consolidation phase represents a critical juncture for Bitcoin's next directional move.
The most recent data shows Bitcoin trading around $118,200 in late July, representing a modest pullback of approximately 4% from the all-time high. This shallow retracement suggests underlying strength rather than exhaustion in the primary trend.
RSI Analysis: Healthy Momentum Reset
Despite Bitcoin's extraordinary rise to $123,218 in July, the daily RSI has demonstrated remarkable resilience. After reaching overbought territory (70+) during the July peak, the indicator has now cooled to approximately 42-46, indicating a healthy reset of momentum conditions without surrendering the broader uptrend.
The weekly RSI reading of 46.4 is particularly significant—showing that despite the recent consolidation, Bitcoin maintains substantial momentum capacity before reaching the extreme readings (80+) that typically signal major cycle tops. This technical positioning creates an ideal scenario where momentum has reset while price structure remains intact.
Most notably, the absence of bearish divergences between price and RSI on higher timeframes suggests the current consolidation is likely a pause rather than a reversal in the primary trend.
Wyckoff Analysis: Re-accumulation Before Continuation
The price action following the $123,218 July peak displays classic characteristics of Wyckoff re-accumulation rather than distribution:
The initial decline from the peak represents a "Preliminary Support" (PS) phase
The subsequent trading range between $117,000-$120,000 shows tight price action with decreasing volatility
Volume characteristics show diminishing selling pressure rather than distribution
Recent price action suggests we're approaching the "Spring" phase that typically precedes markup
According to the data, Bitcoin's price action in late July shows decreasing volatility with narrowing price ranges, consistent with the "Cause Building" phase in Wyckoff methodology. This structure indicates institutional accumulation is still occurring at these elevated levels—a powerful sign that smart money anticipates further upside potential. The completion of this re-accumulation pattern projects a move toward the $135,000-$145,000 range in the coming months.
Supply/Demand Zone Analysis: Key Levels Identified
Supply and demand zone analysis reveals critical price levels that will influence Bitcoin's next directional move:
Major demand zone established between $115,000-$117,000 (recent consolidation floor)
Secondary support cluster at $108,000-$110,000 (previous resistance turned support)
Primary resistance at $123,200-$125,000 (all-time high region)
Limited historical supply overhead above $123,218 suggests minimal resistance once this level is breached
The formation of fresh demand zones during the recent consolidation indicates strategic accumulation before the anticipated upward expansion. The neutralization of previous supply zones during the advance to all-time highs has effectively cleared the technical pathway for Bitcoin's next significant move higher.
Volume Analysis: Confirming the Bullish Case
Examination of trading volume during the recent consolidation provides crucial validation for our bullish thesis:
Declining volume during pullbacks indicates diminishing selling pressure
Volume spikes on upward moves suggest accumulation on strength
The Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) maintains a positive slope, confirming the underlying strength of the trend
The high-volume node has migrated upward in recent weeks, signalling comfort with accumulation at these unprecedented price levels—a powerful indication of market confidence in Bitcoin's valuation. The buying/selling volume differential maintains a positive bias, confirming underlying accumulation despite price consolidation.
Fibonacci Extension Framework: Projecting Targets
With Bitcoin having established a new all-time high at $123,218 in July, we can project potential targets using Fibonacci extensions from the most recent significant swing points:
The 127.2% extension from the June-July rally projects to approximately $132,000
The 161.8% extension suggests potential movement toward $145,000
The 200% extension indicates a possible target of $160,000
These projections align with psychological thresholds that could serve as natural targets in this new price discovery phase.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Extended Fifth Wave Scenario
The current price action suggests we're likely in an extended fifth wave scenario within a larger degree bull cycle:
Primary waves I through III appear complete with the move to $123,218 in July
The current consolidation represents wave IV
Wave V is projected to reach the $140,000-$160,000 range
This wave count suggests potential for continued appreciation toward the $145,000-$160,000 range before a more significant corrective phase begins. The internal structure of the current consolidation displays textbook proportional relationships, further validating our analysis.
Price Projection Timeline
August-September 2025:
Completion of the current consolidation phase with a potential final retest of support in the $115,000-$117,000 range. This would represent the "Last Point of Support" in Wyckoff terminology and provide a final opportunity for institutional accumulation before the next leg up. A decisive break above $125,000 would confirm the end of the consolidation phase.
October 2025:
Renewed momentum pushing Bitcoin toward the $132,000-$140,000 range, potentially coinciding with seasonal strength typically observed in Q4. This phase could see increased institutional participation as year-end positioning begins, with volume expansion confirming the strength of the move.
November-December 2025:
Final wave extension potentially reaching the $145,000-$160,000 range, representing a 20-30% appreciation from current all-time high levels. This phase may exhibit increased volatility and could be followed by a more substantial correction as the extended fifth wave completes.
Key Levels to Monitor
Support Zones:
Primary: $115,000-$117,000 (must hold for bullish scenario)
Secondary: $108,000-$110,000 (previous resistance turned support)
Tertiary: $100,000-$102,000 (psychological and technical support)
Resistance Zones:
Immediate: $123,200-$125,000 (all-time high region)
Target 1: $132,000-$135,000 (127.2% Fibonacci extension)
Target 2: $145,000-$150,000 (161.8% Fibonacci extension)
Target 3: $160,000+ (200% Fibonacci extension)
The Technical Case for New Highs
Despite Bitcoin already achieving unprecedented price levels in July, multiple technical frameworks suggest the potential for continued appreciation:
Historical Precedent: Previous bull cycles have shown Bitcoin capable of extending significantly beyond initial all-time highs before cycle completion
Institutional Adoption: On-chain metrics indicate continued accumulation by large holders despite elevated prices, with exchange outflows remaining positive
Technical Structure: The current consolidation pattern resembles re-accumulation rather than distribution, suggesting the market is preparing for another leg higher
Momentum Characteristics: Current momentum readings have reset from overbought conditions without breaking the underlying trend structure
Strategic Considerations
With Bitcoin having already achieved a new all-time high at $123,218 in July, strategic approaches might include:
Maintaining core positions while implementing trailing stop strategies
Adding to positions during retests of key support levels ($115,000-$117,000)
Considering partial profit-taking at key Fibonacci extension levels
Remaining vigilant for signs of distribution patterns that may emerge at higher levels
Conclusion: The Path to $160,000
The weight of technical evidence suggests Bitcoin has entered a new paradigm of price discovery following its break to all-time highs in July 2025. While the path may include periods of consolidation and volatility, the underlying trend remains firmly bullish with multiple technical frameworks projecting targets in the $145,000-$160,000 range by year-end 2025.
The current consolidation phase represents a healthy reset of momentum conditions rather than a trend reversal, creating an ideal technical foundation for Bitcoin's next major advance. With institutional adoption continuing to grow and technical indicators suggesting ample room for further appreciation, Bitcoin appears well-positioned to achieve new record highs in the coming months.
$130K Channel Resistance — Bullish Structure Intact Bitcoin continues its strong uptrend, pushing toward high time frame resistance at $130K. With no bearish structure in sight, short-term momentum favors continuation unless resistance prompts a reversal.
Bitcoin is showing continued strength in the immediate short term, with price steadily advancing toward the $130,000 high time frame channel resistance. This level marks the upper boundary of a macro trend channel and presents the next critical test for BTC. While this zone may act as a barrier, the market remains structurally bullish, and further upside remains possible before any meaningful correction takes place.
Key Technical Points:
- Channel Resistance at $130K: Major high time frame level to watch
- Bullish Market Structure: Consecutive higher highs and higher lows on lower time frames
- No Bearish Reversal Signs Yet: No structural break or shift to indicate correction
Bitcoin’s price action has been defined by clear bullish structure, especially on the lower time frames, where the market continues to print higher highs and higher lows. This confirms that bulls are still in control and dips are being bought aggressively, maintaining the strength of the trend.
The next major technical level is the $130K resistance, which aligns with the upper boundary of a long-term ascending channel. This area is likely to serve as a key decision zone. If price approaches this region without any signs of exhaustion or bearish divergence, the probability of a brief breakout or retest increases.
However, it is also important to consider this level as a potential inflection point. If price begins to stall at or near $130K — especially with declining volume or a shift in short-term structure — it could signal the beginning of a corrective move. Until such a development occurs, however, the market remains decisively bullish.
Traders should closely monitor intraday structure around the $130K zone. A clean break above on strong volume would indicate continued strength and could open the path toward further price discovery. Conversely, the first sign of weakness would be a break of short-term support levels and failure to form new highs — neither of which has occurred yet.
Bitcoin remains bullish in the short term as it approaches $130K resistance. Unless a structural break occurs or bearish signals appear, further upside remains likely before any correction sets in.