XAUUSD trade ideas
XAUUSD: Market analysis and strategy on July 14Gold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance 3412, support below 3339
Four-hour chart resistance 3400, support below 3349
One-hour chart resistance 3390, support below 3353
Gold news analysis: In the Asian market on Monday, spot gold hit a high of 3374, a new high since June 23. Trump announced last weekend that he would impose a 30% tariff on goods imported from the European Union from August 1, further heating up the market's concerns about international trade and providing momentum for gold prices to rise. Gold prices rose 1% last Friday, closing at 3357, as investors sought safe-haven assets after US President Trump announced multiple tariff measures. Analysts said the uncertainty premium has returned to the market again. Last week, Trump stepped up his tariff offensive against Canada, saying that the United States would impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imports in August and planned to impose a comprehensive tariff of 15% or 20% on most other trading partners. Trump also announced last week that he would impose a 50% tariff on imported copper and a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods.
Gold operation suggestions:
From the current trend analysis, the support below focuses on the four-hour level 3349--53 range support, and the upper pressure focuses on the suppression near the 3400-3412 range. The short-term long and short strength dividing line is 3350. If the four-hour level stabilizes above this position, continue to buy on dips.
Buy: 3350near
Buy: 3356near
Overall Trajectory BullishEntering long positions on XAU/USD based on a confirmed 3-Drive pattern on the H4 timeframe, aligning with confluence from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone.
As long as price stays and holds above 3200 I will remain bullish, if there is a close below 3200 then my analysis will be subject to change. Strong resistance will be at 3400 if it holds then the target is 3641 with a minor pullback at 3548.
#3,400.80 on aim as announcedGold is about to test #3,400.80 benchmark, strong possibility which I announced many times lately that Gold will deliver Bullish accumulation below #3,300.80 then #3,400.80 test (if you read my previous analysis, you would be in excellent Profits).
Technical analysis: Gold eventually honored the Fundamental side and is Trading on a Bullish pattern on the healthy Ascending Channel. Now this is largely charted territory on the Hourly 4 chart. Typically the Ascending Channel is a pattern of trend continuation, marking a Bottom and turning Bullish on Short-term even though that Daily chart's #MA50 (line of utmost importance) got invalidated to the upside once again and formed Support now (remember that I mentioned that Gold will reveal major move after #MA50 is formed / holding as an Support or Resistance, now is formed as an Support which reveals that Gold becomes / stays Bullish on both Short and Medium-term. However the larger time-frame of Weekly chart remains Bearish, so again I need to pay attention of potential reversal points and Selling the Top as High (and safely) as I can. Gold was Technically Bearish but Fundamental side prevailed and the result is those Bullish candles which are visible on the charts.
My position: I have Bought Gold throughout Friday's session within #3,330's however closed earlier below #3,348.80 (missed #3,352.80 benchmark break-out) however my Profits were already great so I don't mind. Keep Buying every dip on Gold (aggressive Scalps).
Gold gaps up and open higher,beware of going long at high levelsBros, the Asian session opened higher in the morning. Currently, gold is falling back to the SMA1O moving average. We will continue to be bullish after it falls back and stabilizes. At present, it has broken through the key resistance level of 3360. The daily line has shown a strong pattern of three consecutive positives. The gold price remains in the rising channel, and the bullish trend is obvious. As the gold price moves up, the short-term moving average moves up with it. At present, 3355-3345 constitutes an important support in the short term, and 3375-3385 above constitutes a short-term resistance area. Whether it can stand firmly above 3360 this week is the key.
Severe overbought in the short term, there are trading risks for long positions at high levels. Short-term operation suggestions for the Asian and European sessions: consider shorting when it touches 3365-3375, and stop loss when it breaks 3375. The target focuses on 3355-3345, and the breakout looks at 3330-3320. On the contrary, if it stabilizes at 3355-3345, you can consider going long.
IMPORTANT BREAKOUT 〉BULLS ARE BACKAs illustrated, price has broken out of an important 4H and 1D trend line that had kept price bearish since the beginning of the month.
Yesterday, gold made its way to a ket resistance level and broke it, CLOSING above it in the 4H timeframe, which is a key sign that bulls are back.
An interesting sign is that price bounced from the 61.8 - 67% retracement of the last bullish impulse that had an extended correction.
Should price manage to stay above 3250-3300 next week, , (a very strong psychological and algorithmic price range), the path to a new ATH is well opened and the probabilities arise on its favor.
I try to visualize a potential buy area shown in green, and the invalidation of this idea would be the level from which price has bounced.
--
I have been bullish on gold since 2023, ignoring any correction to be a "bearish market" and rather accumulation phases of longer term potential for growth.
The world economy and geopolitical conflict along many other financial macroeconomic data and circumstances, are simply NOT pointing toward a better future, and gold is screaming so by continuing to rise, and central banks back this up by continuing to buy it physically.
--
GOOD LUCK
XAUUSD 1H – Bullish Trend Continuation Setup (TCB Trend Phase)📈 XAUUSD 1H – Bullish Trend Continuation Setup (TCB Trend Phase)
Timeframe: 1H
Strategy Phase: ✅ Trend Phase (Pullback & Breakout)
🔍 Analysis:
Gold (XAUUSD) continues to hold its bullish trend structure, with price breaking above the descending trendline and forming higher highs and higher lows.
After a recent breakout, price pulled back to a key support + trendline confluence zone near 3,353, where it printed bullish continuation candles. This zone has also acted as a breakout-retest area, adding confidence.
The next major target lies around 3,425, just beneath the next supply/resistance zone.
📌 Trade Setup Summary:
Entry Zone: 3,360–3,370
Stop Loss: Below 3,352
Take Profit: 3,425
Risk-to-Reward: ~1:3+
Bias: Bullish continuation unless price breaks below structure
📋 TCB Checklist Review (Trend Phase):
✅ HTF Bullish Trend Confirmed (4H/1H)
✅ Pullback to Demand/Structure
✅ Breakout + Retest
✅ Trendline Confluence
✅ Clean RRR and no major chop
✅ No nearby HTF resistance until 3,425 zone
✅ Score: 100% A+ Setup
🧠 Trade Management Plan:
Move SL to breakeven at 1:1
Consider partial TP near 3,400
Re-enter if price forms another continuation setup
📚 Strategy: TCB (Trend – Countertrend – Breakout)
This trade follows the Trend Phase rules – trading pullbacks in a strong bullish market.
Xausd techinical analysis.This chart is for Gold Spot vs. the U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe, and it illustrates several smart money concepts. Here's a breakdown of the key components and what they suggest:
Key Elements on the Chart:
1. BOS (Break of Structure):
Marked in orange and red text.
A BOS indicates a shift in market structure. The first BOS (left side) shows a bullish shift, while the BOS at the top may signal a potential bearish shift.
2. OB (Order Block):
Highlighted with purple boxes and labeled "OB".
These are institutional supply/demand zones where price is likely to react.
The most recent OB at the top appears to be a supply zone, as price touches it and drops afterward.
3. FVG (Fair Value Gap):
A small orange box labeled "FVG".
This is an imbalance area where price moved too quickly, potentially getting filled later. It's a sign of inefficiency in price action.
4. Support Zone:
Marked in yellow and purple at the bottom of the chart.
This is a demand zone where price previously reversed, and it may act as a magnet for future price action if bearish pressure continues.
5. Bearish Arrow (Projection):
A red arrow suggesting price may drop from the OB zone
The bulls have started, aiming at 3400!Gold rose as soon as the market opened, and the highest has now reached above 3374. The upward momentum of gold is strong. It can be seen that after breaking through the recent high of 3365, its morphological structure has obviously tended to a bullish structure, and the technical form shows a "W" double bottom structure and an inverted head and shoulder resonance. The resonance of this technical structure will continue to support the continued rise of gold.
At present, gold is under pressure near the 3380 area in the short term, followed by the area near 3405. At present, gold has a technical retracement near 3380, but it is difficult to destroy the already formed rising structure based on the current retracement strength. Once gold rises again, 3380 will definitely be conquered! It will even continue to the 3400-3410 area; and the area with obvious short-term support is concentrated in the 3350-3340-3330 area, so gold may still rebound again with the support of this area after the decline, and continue to rise.
So for short-term trading, I would consider buying gold in batches based on the support of the 3350-3330 area, with the first target looking at 3380, followed by the 3400-3410 area.
Early Week Pullback Ahead of Key Economic ReleasesGold Outlook – 14 July | Early Week Pullback Ahead of Key Economic Releases
🌍 Market Sentiment & Macro Overview
Gold has started the week with a sharp retracement after filling prior liquidity gaps (FVG) from the past two weeks.
This early weakness signals a risk-off tone as traders adopt a cautious stance ahead of a heavy macroeconomic calendar and geopolitical trade discussions.
This week’s high-impact events include:
📌 US CPI (Inflation Data)
📌 US PPI (Producer Prices)
📌 Unemployment Claims
📌 Retail Sales Figures
These data points will likely set the tone for price action through the second half of the week, with potential for sharp moves in gold.
📉 Technical Snapshot – M30 Chart Structure
Price swept minor liquidity above recent highs
Pulled back by more than $15 from the short-term top
Currently trading below the intraday VPOC (~3358), suggesting short-term bearish momentum
If the selling pressure holds, we may see a move toward:
⚠️ 333x zone — initial liquidity pool
❗ 332x zone — deeper liquidity grab before any bullish reversal
🧭 Trading Plan – Key Zones and Setup
📥 Buy Setup: 3331 – 3329 (Zone of Interest)
Stop Loss: 3325
Target Levels:
TP1: 3335
TP2: 3340
TP3: 3344
TP4: 3350
TP5: 3360 – 3370
✅ A highly reactive zone — ideal for intraday long setups if price sweeps into this area and shows bullish confirmation (e.g., volume spike or rejection wick).
📤 Sell Setup: 3393 – 3395 (Resistance Re-Test)
Stop Loss: 3399
Target Levels:
TP1: 3390
TP2: 3386
TP3: 3382
TP4: 3378
TP5: 3374 – 3370 – 3360
📉 Potential scalp zone if price retests resistance with signs of exhaustion. Monitor closely for bearish structure confirmation.
📊 Key Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance Zones:
3358
3368
3374
3394
Support Zones:
3349
3340
3331
3318
These zones remain relevant for both momentum trades and reversion setups.
⚠️ Strategy Considerations
At the time of writing, gold is trading indecisively around the M30 VPOC. No clear breakout has occurred yet.
⏳ Wait for volume confirmation during the London session
🚫 Avoid impulsive entries based on emotions or FOMO
✅ Stick to your risk parameters and let price come to your level
🧠 Summary & Bias
Gold is experiencing an early-week technical correction after recent strength.
The market is in "wait-and-see" mode, with macro drivers likely to dictate direction from mid-week onwards.
📍 Watch the 3331–3329 zone closely — it remains the most attractive level for long setups.
📍 The 3393–3395 zone is a key area to fade strength if price struggles at resistance.
Patience and precision are key this week. Let the market reveal its intention, and trade accordingly.
GOLD BUY M15 XAU/USD (Gold) 15-Minute Chart Analysis – July 14, 2025
Price is currently trading around 3358 after showing consolidation within a highlighted demand zone (purple box). A potential bullish move is anticipated from this zone, with the expectation of a reversal to the upside.
Key Levels:
Entry Zone: 3355–3358 (demand/support area)
Stop Loss (SL): 3347 (below the demand zone)
Target: 3370 (resistance level)
Analysis Summary:
Price previously showed a Break of Structure (BOS) to the upside, indicating bullish momentum.
Currently retesting the demand zone, which could act as a strong support.
If the price holds above the support and gains bullish momentum, we may see a move toward the first resistance at 3360, then 3365, and ultimately the target at 3370.
This setup offers a good risk-to-reward ratio, with a tight stop loss and clear bullish targets.
Gold Price Analysis: Bearish Trend Likely to ContinueGold Price Analysis: Bearish Trend Likely to Continue
Gold prices have been forming lower lows, signaling a sustained **bearish trend in the market. This downward movement indicates weakening bullish momentum, with sellers dominating price action. Currently, the price is moving in a secondary trend (a short-term correction within the broader primary trend). However, in the upcoming trading sessions, this secondary trend may conclude, leading to a resumption of the primary bearish trend.
A key factor to watch is the emergence of a candlestick reversal pattern, such as a bearish engulfing or evening star formation, which could confirm further downside momentum. If such a pattern appears, gold prices may extend their decline, potentially testing the critical support level near $3,250. A decisive break below this level could accelerate selling pressure, opening the door for deeper corrections.
On the upside, $3,450 remains a strong resistance zone. Any rebound attempts could face rejection near this level unless there is a significant shift in market sentiment—such as a dovish Fed policy change or renewed safe-haven demand. Traders should monitor key economic data, including inflation reports and interest rate decisions, as these factors heavily influence gold’s direction.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Support: $3,250 (Break below may trigger further selling)
- Resistance: $3,450 (Reversal point if buyers regain control)
Trading Strategy:
- Short-term traders may look for selling opportunities near resistance levels, targeting $3,250.
- Long-term investors should wait for a confirmed trend reversal before entering bullish positions.
Gold (XAUUSD) Analysis – 4-Hour TimeframeGold (XAUUSD) Analysis – 4-Hour Timeframe
Currently, the price is moving in an upward trend and approaching a key resistance area. Recent volatility suggests that buyers have shown enough strength to break through previous resistance zones and are now attempting to overcome the next significant barrier ahead.
🔴 Bullish Scenario:
If the price manages to break above the current resistance and hold above it, we can expect a continuation of the upward move toward higher zones. In this case, the bullish wave could extend toward the next resistance levels (marked in blue).
🔴 Bearish Scenario:
If the price reacts negatively to the current resistance area and fails to break above it, a corrective decline may follow. The nearest support zone below could play a crucial role in maintaining the bullish structure. However, if this support is also broken, the path could open for a deeper pullback toward lower support levels.
Gold – M15 Bias Within POI Zone | July 14 Analysis🟡 Gold – M15 Bias Within POI Zone | July 14 Analysis
As discussed in our previous H4 analysis, Gold opened the week with a gap above the spinning top candle, effectively skipping seller pressure and breaking above the H4 swing high ( 3366 ).
This Break of Structure (BoS) confirmed the H4 bullish continuation , and now price may be preparing for a pullback toward the 3320 Order Block (OB) before resuming its upward trend.
🔍 M15 Intraday Bias:
📍 Price is currently trading inside the 3355 M15 POI zone — a potential continuation zone
🔄 On Lower Timeframes ( M1 ), a micro ChoCH has already occurred — an early signal of possible bullish interest
However, we're still waiting for a micro BoS to validate the reversal and confirm that the POI is being respected
Until that confirmation is in place, we continue to observe market behavior and remain patient
🧭 High-Probability Scenario:
If the current zone fails to hold or doesn’t provide clean M1 confirmation , we will shift focus to the 3320 OB , which remains the most reliable zone for a long setup in line with the H4 trend
A pullback to this level, combined with confirmation, would provide a strong case for continuation trades
🎯 Observational Trade Plan:
✅ Plan 1 (Aggressive Option):
→ If M1 micro BoS occurs from 3355 zone , a short-term long setup may be considered based on internal structure
✅ Plan 2 (Conservative Option):
→ If price pulls back to 3320 OB and M1 confirms , the setup aligns with higher timeframe trend continuation
🛑 Avoid counter-trading — structure remains bullish, and there's no confirmation for shorts at this point
🧠 Final Thoughts:
Let the market do the work. Structure is already pointing up — all we need is confirmation and timing.
No need to rush. Wait, observe, and only execute when the market invites you in with clarity.
📖 Structure leads, emotion misleads. Follow the flow — trade the mirror, not the noise.
📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
GOLD UPDATE – Demand Zone Bounce📊 GOLD UPDATE – Demand Zone Bounce
Price respected the 3349–3351.8 demand zone and is now climbing toward key resistance at 3366.912.
🟩 Demand Zone Held: 3349–3351.8
📈 Target: Resistance Level 3366.912
📉 Backup Demand: 3342–3345 & 3339–3346 (in case of pullback)
This reaction reinforces the importance of level precision and smart zone selection. Let's watch for confirmation near resistance.
Gold begins bullish recoveryIon Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Gold posted a slight gain during Monday's Asian session, driven by renewed safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions between the United States and several key economies, as well as rising geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Russia and Ukraine.
The initial uptick in gold was supported by the announcement of 30% tariffs by Donald Trump on Mexico and the European Union, in addition to harsher levies on Japan, South Korea, and Brazil. The prospect of a renewed wave of protectionism has raised concerns over global economic stability, boosting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Added to this is geopolitical tension following reports that Trump is planning to send offensive weapons to Ukraine, potentially escalating the conflict with Russia. These factors have reinforced risk-off sentiment in the markets.
However, the strength of the US dollar (DXY +0.1%) and anticipation ahead of the US CPI data, due Tuesday, are capping gold’s upside. Higher-than-expected inflation could reinforce expectations of a tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which would weigh on precious metals.
After reaching an intraday high of $3,361.42 per ounce, the Asian market closed lower, leaving gold at $3,356.66 per ounce, a level at which it has since consolidated ahead of the European open. This behavior reflects a technical pause in the initial bullish momentum, with the current point of control aligning with that same price zone, suggesting a temporary neutralization of buying pressure. The RSI at 54% confirms a lack of strength, while the MACD indicates a potential upward directional shift with a signal line crossover and a modestly green histogram to start the week. Moving average crossovers show the 50 and 100 SMAs supporting the bullish push that began last Wednesday. Gold’s next decisive move may depend on upcoming US inflation data and developments in geopolitical tensions.
Silver, meanwhile, stood out with a sharp 1.4% surge to $39.493 per ounce, its highest level since 2011, while platinum and copper delivered mixed performances.
This week, gold prices could be driven by the confirmation of elevated US inflation data, which would strengthen the metal's role as a hedge against purchasing power loss, especially if doubts persist regarding the Fed’s policy stance. Added to this are rising geopolitical tensions due to Trump’s potential delivery of offensive weapons to Ukraine, further protectionist measures that could worsen the global trade war, and increased risk aversion should equity markets react negatively. In this context, gold is positioned as one of the main beneficiaries amid growing economic and political uncertainty.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success. Regulated status does not guarantee security.
Adjust after shock and then go longNews: In the early Asian session, spot gold rose slightly, reaching a high of $3,372.65/ounce, the highest since June 23. Trump announced last weekend that he would impose a 30% tariff on goods imported from the EU from August 1, which further heated up the market's concerns about international trade and provided momentum for gold prices to rise. In the early Asian session, spot gold rose slightly, reaching a high of $3,373.99/ounce so far, the highest since June 23. Trump announced last weekend that he would impose a 30% tariff on goods imported from the EU from August 1, which further heated up the market's concerns about international trade and provided momentum for gold prices to rise.
Analysis of gold trend: Today it hit a new high at around 3373. From the daily chart, gold has closed three consecutive positive days. The K-line pattern is a bullish signal. From the indicators, the RSI turned upward from a low level, and the Stoch indicator formed a golden cross at a low level. It is currently running in the middle. The indicators show that gold is still likely to rise in the short term. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the suppression of the 3400 area on the upper track of the daily Bollinger band. In the short term, pay attention to the breakthrough of this level. Once 3400 is not broken through for multiple times, gold will still fall back to test the 3280 support in the future. Once it breaks through 3400, gold will test the 3450 area. In the short term, it is still likely to rise. The operation strategy remains unchanged.
Gold fluctuates, consolidation in the 3330-3310 range📰 News information:
1. Waller meeting on interest rate cuts
2. Trump tariff issues
📈 Technical Analysis:
Waller will participate in the meeting in more than two hours and pay attention to whether there is any news of interest rate cut. The key is to operate around the 3330-3310 range. Continue to pay attention to the support of 3310-3305 at night. If gold falls below 3310,-3305 again, the downward trend will continue, and it is expected to touch 3280 again, or even 3250. If it rebounds above 3330, it is likely to continue to rise.
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, facing your mistakes, and exercising strict self-discipline. I share free trading strategies and analysis ideas every day for reference by brothers. I hope my analysis can help you.
TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold Intraday Trading Plan 7/14/2025Although I am bearish in weekly TF, the trend is not yet reversed in smaller TFs. In 4hrly TF, gold is very bullish. There is no sign of slowing down.
I will watch price closed in current level. If 3365 is broken, I will stay out for today. If 3365 holds, I will sell towards 3345.
There could be some buying opportunities as well if 3345 support holds.
Let's see the market will provide us today.