Fibonacci
Pulse of an asset ala Fibonacci: LRC two spurts of Golden GrowthThis Chart is a an example of a "Golden" Fib series.
This Concept is from "Chapter 5" of my going "book".
This Religion is of the universality of the "Golden Ratio".
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My "Book" detailing my Methodology with Numerous Examples:
Chapter 1: Introduction and numerous Examples
Chapter 2: Detailed views and Wave Analysis
Chapter 3: The Dreaded 9.618: Murderer of Moves
Chapter 4: Impulse Redux: Return to Birth place
Chapter 5: Golden Growth: Parabolic Expansions
Chapter 6: Give me a ping Vasili: one Ping only
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Pulse of an asset ala Fibonacci: BTC Golden Fib and some signsThis Chart is a an example of a "Golden" Fib series.
This Concept is from "Chapter 5" of my going "book".
This Religion about the universality of the "Golden Ratio".
Marked on chart are "Pings", ricochets that one can almost HEAR.
"Not all Pings start a reversal, but Most reversals start with a Ping."
Top had a "Loud" ping, with possible bottom of several loud pings.
Every Ping is like a bug hitting a spider's Web.
The vibration alerts and emboldens other strands.
Thus we observe the behavior at each strand for clues.
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My "Book" detailing my Methodology with Numerous Examples:
Chapter 1: Introduction and numerous Examples
Chapter 2: Detailed views and Wave Analysis
Chapter 3: The Dreaded 9.618: Murderer of Moves
Chapter 4: Impulse Redux: Return to Birth place
Chapter 5: Golden Growth: Parabolic Expansions
Chapter 6: Give me a ping Vasili: one Ping only
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No one catches entire trends. Start by OTP only a small part. Markets trend. Those trends can be divided in 3 + 1 phases:
Phase 1: Other names include Accumulation/Reversal/Wave 1
No one really know we are in phase 1 until much later.
Phase 1 is very often followed by a deep correction. This was spotted by Elliot (from Elliot Waves) as well as Dow I think?
From the market itself this appears to be true. We can see it for ourselves.
So we know 2 things, assuming those are true:
a- Phase 1 only truly materializes until the trend is well established.
b- Phase 1 very often will correct to 78.6% or more.
So clearly, catching reversals, assuming it is possible (it is but I think most pro's hate it and most retail only wants to do this), will realistically never let people ride entire trends. Assuming the goal is to make money not lose it being wrong all the time with awfully low RR.
Paul Tudor Jones said "For twelve years, I have often been missing the meat in the middle, but I have caught a lot of bottoms and tops."
Retail that has no rules no discipline and generally no clue are the ones that all absolutely want to catch tops and bottoms. The irony.
From OG's we often hear not to try to catch falling knives that no one can win but some people do it so it is possible simple proof.
Would I recommend it to the eager thirsty noob that think he will buy bottoms then sell tops? Yes, but just to have a good laugh.
The full PTJ quote is
"Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all the money by catching the trends in the middle.
Well, for twelve years, I have often been missing the meat in the middle, but I have caught a lot of bottoms and tops."
Some examples:
And so on.
What people think they'll manage:
What profiteers claim to provide to people that want to catch tops and bottoms
Bitcoin 2014 bear market => Starts with several big retraces.
Bitcoin 2018 bear market
Bitcoin 2019 top hunting
EURSEK I went for this reversal (chart is reversed)
And well... it did not continue... So good thing I got out!
Then you also have to greedy money grabbers.
Let it run, but not too much. It is not possible to get the whole trend out of it. If someone can do it then welcome richest person in the world.
Phase 2: Meat of the move/Wave 3
Things start getting positive/negative. That's really when things reverse into a new trend, and after it goes higher/lower than phase 1 participants start to notice and start thinking that it is possible we are in a new trend.
It is often the biggest part. The trend, with 1 being the start and 3 the end.
This is the most important and most lucrative one so I'm keeping it short here. It's not that fun to just follow a well established trend.
Unless you are in and it keeps going your way and you keep screaming it will go to zero like a crazy person. Now that is alot of fun (:
Phase 3: The end/Wave 5/Distribution/Ending Euphoric/Vertical/Exhaustion/Divergence/Ending Diagonal/Etc 1000 names
I like wikipedia description on that one:
"Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish.
Unfortunately (?), this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top.
At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received)." I doubt anyone knows or recalls for the older ones how bears were treated back in 2000.
My teachers in high school said I had a contradictory spirit. Some after hgih school said I "thought I knew things". LOL 😆.
What they meant is other people are idiots and I am not.
Not my fault the herd is always wrong. I am not going to pretend to be stupid just to "fit in with the herd of sheep".
They're still struggling teaching high school kids and I'm chilling treating the market as my personal ATM.
And then you got the suckers that get excited at the top. The most non-subtle example is Bitcoin permabulls. Wow those guys.
They have been bagholding for 2-3 years now. They'll still be bagholding in 5 and I'll be counting my millions. We'll see who'll (still) be laughing.
Playing reversals is possible because it is rather obvious when the herd starts getting interested and gets crazy.
Being obvious does not mean there is a magical way to call the exact top, and it will often take several losses before getting it right.
Concerning magical top & bottom calling, well I will get into it further down this idea :)
And then there is the opposite. Note at the time there was no way to know as far as I am concerned where the bottom/top would be, which is why we make a list of tops/bottoms and play carefully. If someone knows where tops and bottoms will be then show me your trillions:
It does not always just end up vertical at the top...
Phase +1: ABC, the correction
Yikes. No thank you. There are 5861 types of correction (more or less). Often very choppy and disgusting.
This is bad. Don't trade corrections. Let day trader-gamblers lose money through commissions and get caught in massive moves against them when it breaks.
All together
You're taking risks for profit. This top & bottom calling thing, and expecting to catch the whole move, is truly delusional.
Even in his most famous trades George Soros did not catch everything.
Don't go too early, don't be difficult or you'll miss it. It's hard to balance it out.
I have to stop going too early (too late for reversal and too early for meat of the move)
Need to be careful with conditions before rushing in.
Got the perfect exit never have any issues.
There is no perfect way to filter out the trash, no perfect way to know what will be a good entry...
Get punished for doing the right thing, get rewarded for doing the dumb thing...
Those that do not know this and won't quit, will eventually learn
An entry system truly worthy of the greatest myfxbook robots 💩 and Bitcoin trading experts 🤤.
Pulse of an asset via Fibonacci: ETH near a minor Impulse Redux"Impulse" is a surge that creates "Ripples", like a pebble into water.
"Impulse Redux" is returning of wave to the original source of energy.
"Impulse Core" is the zone of maximum energy, in the Golden Pocket.
Are the sellers still there? Enough to absorb the buying power?
Reaction at Impulse is worth observing closely to gauge energy.
Rejection is expected on at least first approach if not several.
Part of my ongoing series to collect examples of my Methodology : (click links below)
Chapter 1: Introduction and numerous Examples
Chapter 2: Detailed views and Wave Analysis
Chapter 3: The Dreaded 9.618: Murderer of Moves
Chapter 4: Impulse Redux: Return to Birth place <= Current Example
Chapter 5: Golden Growth: Parabolic Expansions
Chapter 6: Give me a ping Vasili: one Ping only
.
.
Ordered Chaos
every Wave is born from Impulse,
like a Pebble into Water.
every Pebble bears its own Ripples,
gilded of Ratio Golden.
every Ripple behaves as its forerunner,
setting the Pulse.
each line Gains its Gravity .
each line Tried and Tested.
each line Poised to Reflect.
every Asset Class behaves this way.
every Time Frame displays its ripples.
every Brain Chord rings these rhythms.
He who Understands will be Humble.
He who Grasps will observe the Order.
He who Ignores will behold only Chaos.
Ordered Chaos
.
.
.
want to Learn a little More?
can you Spend a few Moments?
click the Links under Related.
What Are Fibonacci Retracements and Fibonacci Ratios?How Fibonacci Ratios Work
Before we can understand why these ratios were chosen, let's review the Fibonacci number series.
The Fibonacci sequence of numbers is as follows: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, etc. Each term in this sequence is simply the sum of the two preceding terms, and the sequence continues infinitely. One of the remarkable characteristics of this numerical sequence is that each number is approximately 1.618 times greater than the preceding number. This common relationship between every number in the series is the foundation of the ratios used by technical traders to determine retracement levels.
The key Fibonacci ratio of 61.8% is found by dividing one number in the series by the number that follows it. For example, 21 divided by 34 equals 0.6176, and 55 divided by 89 equals about 0.61798.
The 38.2% ratio is discovered by dividing a number in the series by the number located two spots to the right. For instance, 55 divided by 144 equals approximately 0.38194.
The 23.6% ratio is found by dividing one number in the series by the number that is three places to the right. For example, 8 divided by 34 equals about 0.23529.
Fibonacci Retracement and Predicting Stock Prices
For unknown reasons, these Fibonacci ratios seem to play a role in the stock market, just as they do in nature. Technical traders attempt to use them to determine critical points where an asset's price momentum is likely to reverse.
Fibonacci retracements are the most widely used of all the Fibonacci trading tools. That is partly because of their relative simplicity and partly due to their applicability to almost any trading instrument. They can be used to draw support lines, identify resistance levels, place stop-loss orders, and set target prices. Fibonacci ratios can even act as a primary mechanism in a countertrend trading strategy.
Fibonacci retracement levels are horizontal lines that indicate the possible locations of support and resistance levels. Each level is associated with one of the above ratios or percentages. It shows how much of a prior move the price has retraced. The direction of the previous trend is likely to continue. However, the price of the asset usually retraces to one of the ratios listed above before that happens.
The following chart illustrates how a Fibonacci retracement appears. Most modern trading platforms contain a tool that automatically draws in the horizontal lines. Notice how the price changes direction as it approaches the support and resistance levels.
Fibonacci Retracement Pros and Cons
Despite the popularity of Fibonacci retracements, the tools have some conceptual and technical disadvantages that traders should be aware of when using them.
The use of the Fibonacci retracement is subjective. Traders may use this technical indicator in different ways. Those traders who make profits using Fibonacci retracement verify its effectiveness. At the same time, those who lose money say it is unreliable. Others argue that technical analysis is a case of a self-fulfilling prophecy. If traders are all watching and using the same Fibonacci ratios or other technical indicators, the price action may reflect that fact.
The underlying principle of any Fibonacci tool is a numerical anomaly that is not grounded in any logical proof. The ratios, integers, sequences, and formulas derived from the Fibonacci sequence are only the product of a mathematical process. That does not make Fibonacci trading inherently unreliable. However, it can be uncomfortable for traders who want to understand the rationale behind a strategy.
Furthermore, a Fibonacci retracement strategy can only point to possible corrections, reversals, and countertrend bounces. This system struggles to confirm any other indicators and doesn't provide easily identifiable strong or weak signals.
The Bottom Line
Fibonacci trading tools suffer from the same problems as other universal trading strategies, such as the Elliott Wave theory. That said, many traders find success using Fibonacci ratios and retracements to place transactions within long-term price trends.
Fibonacci retracement can become even more powerful when used in conjunction with other indicators or technical signals. Investopedia Academy's Technical Analysis course covers these indicators as well as how to transform patterns into actionable trading plans.
Pulse of an asset via Fibonacci: ATOM at Major Impulse Redux"Impulse" is a surge that creates "Ripples", like a pebble into water.
"Impulse Redux" is returning of wave to the original source of energy.
"Impulse Core" is the zone of maximum energy, in the Golden Pocket.
Are the sellers still there? Enough to absorb the buying power?
Reaction at Impulse is worth observing closely to gauge energy.
Rejection is expected on at least first approach if not several.
Part of my ongoing series to collect examples of my Methodology : (click links below)
Chapter 1: Introduction and numerous Examples
Chapter 2: Detailed views and Wave Analysis
Chapter 3: The Dreaded 9.618: Murderer of Moves
Chapter 4: Impulse Redux: Return to Birth place <= Current Example
Chapter 5: Golden Growth: Parabolic Expansions
Chapter 6: Give me a ping Vasili: one Ping only
.
.
Ordered Chaos
every Wave is born from Impulse,
like a Pebble into Water.
every Pebble bears its own Ripples,
gilded of Ratio Golden.
every Ripple behaves as its forerunner,
setting the Pulse.
each line Gains its Gravity .
each line Tried and Tested.
each line Poised to Reflect.
every Asset Class behaves this way.
every Time Frame displays its ripples.
every Brain Chord rings these rhythms.
He who Understands will be Humble.
He who Grasps will observe the Order.
He who Ignores will behold only Chaos.
Ordered Chaos
.
.
.
want to Learn a little More?
can you Spend a few Moments?
click the Links under Related.
Pulse of an asset via Fibonacci: ZRX nearing Major Impulse Redux"Impulse" is a surge that creates "Ripples", like a pebble into water.
"Impulse Redux" is returning of wave to the original source of energy.
"Impulse Core" is the zone of maximum energy, in the Golden Pocket.
Are the sellers still there? Enough to absorb the buying power?
Reaction at Impulse is worth observing closely to gauge energy.
Rejection is expected on at least first approach if not several.
Part of my ongoing series to collect examples of my Methodology : (click links below)
Chapter 1: Introduction and numerous Examples
Chapter 2: Detailed views and Wave Analysis
Chapter 3: The Dreaded 9.618: Murderer of Moves
Chapter 4: Impulse Redux: Return to Birth place <= Current Example
Chapter 5: Golden Growth: Parabolic Expansions
Chapter 6: Give me a ping Vasili: one Ping only
.
.
Ordered Chaos
every Wave is born from Impulse,
like a Pebble into Water.
every Pebble bears its own Ripples,
gilded of Ratio Golden.
every Ripple behaves as its forerunner,
setting the Pulse.
each line Gains its Gravity .
each line Tried and Tested.
each line Poised to Reflect.
every Asset Class behaves this way.
every Time Frame displays its ripples.
every Brain Chord rings these rhythms.
He who Understands will be Humble.
He who Grasps will observe the Order.
He who Ignores will behold only Chaos.
Ordered Chaos
.
.
.
want to Learn a little More?
can you Spend a few Moments?
click the Links under Related.