Harmonic Patterns - Gartley - Approach 01- AB has to touch the 0.618 of XA, but cannot touch to the 0.786 of XA
- BC has to touch the 0.618 of AB, but cannot go above the A
There are a few ways to look for D. In this approach, it is:
- Put a Fib Retracement from X to B.
- Put a Trend-Based Fib Retracement from A to B to A
- If the 0.718 and 1.272 are close to each other choose, 0.718
- Else, choose the 1.272
Targets
- the 0.382 or the 0.618 of Fib Retracement from A to D.
Stop
- X or 10 pips below
Fibonacci
GOLD replay from 2014 using pitchfan as a projection tool.Nesta and I were throwing some projections on to gold, backtesting something we had looked at with the upward trend lines because I have noticed when I drop the trend lines on, the angles seem to follow some very fibonacci-esque ratios. So we decided to backtest with the pitchfan and see what we saw. Very interesting stuff.
Where to Start and End a Fibonacci?Fib traders look for the ''natural rhythm'' of a market.
But where exactly to place the ends can be subjective.
I make it more objective by wiggling until price tells me.
Sometimes the Highest High to Lowest Low is NOT best.
Sometimes there are long wicks so hard to place one end.
Sometimes momentum will take price further than it ''should''
While drawing the fib, drag one end up/down a bit.
Look at how the price reacted to the various fib levels.
Try to hit the most price turns with the most fib levels.
USDJPY, Fibonacci, and the Magical 110.025The wonders of Fibs
This is USDJPY on FXCM .
Left pane is Weekly chart going back to 2012.
Right panels are zoomed in views of the circled areas.
The Fib in left pane was drawn from the first impulse in first Quarter 2012.
Each of the fib extensions shown becomes relevant later.
Check the 4.0 Extension at 110.025. Not 110.000, not 100.000 but 110.025
That extension was touched once before (albeit cut though several times)
That extension was touched this month (upper right) to the pip , and twice .
Fascinating for several reasons:
1) The Ripples of a ''Protuberance'' that happened 6 years ago are still clearly in effect today.
2) This asset trades almost a $1 Trillion PER DAY by almost all banks around the globe.
3) Numerous conditions, people, and econs have changed a lot in the last six+ years.
YET, that tiny first wave six years later still directs Trillions of Dollars and perhaps Billions of People to decide that $ 110.025 is THE number of importance Right Now .
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I am not religious but if there IS a God, then he/she/it will be found in/by/for the Golden Ratio.
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BCH - Algorithmic Entry and Target hit beautifully!I realise it's easy to state after the fact, but BCH has produced a clear example of fibonacci entry and first target hit.
I just missed my entry as I noticed this a little late, highlighting the difference between trading and TA.
However, its impossible to miss the confluence with the entry, RSI moving above 30, divergence appearing on the EWO and the entry at the Golden Pocket.
Stops just outside the 65 needed to be careful as a cheeky wick could have caught them.
Its also satisfying to see my automatic algo, written using pine script, producing a fantastic trade set up in seconds.
Sam
Lucas Number sequence's a study on BTC Liquid IndexThe Lucas Number sequence from 0-123 is the main topic of this post as it accurately predicted tops and bottoms of 2017 bull run with a very high level of accuracy. Periods of consolidation can also be predicted with halfway points between levels and then beyond incorporating those halfway points.
Lucas Number sequence prime
N of Lucas Number prime
Lucas Number sequence
P.s What would be an interesting take on this would be using some sort of indicator to hone potential timings.
Fib extensions that could have made you a millionaire!Helloow fellow gamblers!
I was looking at Fibs at a deeper level. The more I learn about them, the more obsessed I get with them. Now Fibs r my #1 trading tool. Most of u r already using Fib retracements. This chart shows that Fib extensions can also be very useful. I created them from Nov 8 2017 drop. Fib lines that did not control key levels r removed.
This chart shows what happened in the past. Next 1 might show the future.
I don't know what u guys r interested 2 c . U can write me in the comments if u don't want me posting these kinda ideas. If u wanna c more, just press the like button.
1:peace:
/:D
- Zoom in by dragging the scales. Double click for auto scale
PS: There r some hidden stuff in this chart and only the very curious 1s of you will find it.
Fib sequence: 1 + 1 = 2 + 1 = 3 + 2 = 5 + 3 = 8 + 5 = 13 + 8 = 21 + 13 = 34 + 21 = 55 + 34 = 89 + 55 = 144 + 89 = 233 + ...
Fib extensions: 1.618, 2.618, 4.236 &1.272 & 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, ... & 4.618, 5.618, ..., and a lot more
For the nerds:
Fib extensions:
- A number divided by the previous number approximates 1.618 (21/13=1.6153, 233/144=1.6181)
- A number divided by the second previous number approximates 2.618
- A number divided by 3rd previous number approximates 4.236
- Square root of 1.618 = 1.272
- Square root of 1.272 = 1.127
- Multiples of the base: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, ...
- I am also using natural numbers + golden ratio 4.618, 5.618, ...
Retracements:
- A number divided by the next number approximates the golden ratio .618 (13/21=.6190, 55/89=.6179)
- A number divided by second next number approximates .382 (13/34=.382, 21/55=.3818, 34/89=.3820, 55/=144=.3819).
-- Also, note that 1 - .618 = .618 *.618 = .382
- A number divided by another three places higher approximates .236 (13/55=.2363, 21/89=.2359, 34/144=.2361, 55/233=.2361)
- Square root of .618 = .786
- Square root of .786= .886
Ref: stockcharts.com
The ''Pulse'' of an asset times FibonacciFibonacci traders try to grasp the ''pulse'' or ''bandwidth'' of the waves in a movement.
I noticed the above just goofing around, and wanted to put it out there before I forgot about it.
Will update with more thoughts and examples of Fibs once this crash is over :)
#tron $trx #tron 15min chart analysis: (Short-term analysis)#tron $trx #tron 15min chart analysis: (Short-term analysis)
Bullish bias: If we break above 875- Wave 5 Target: 895-905,
Bearish bias: If Double top support at 840 is broken with confirmation. Target for ABC correction: 800-810sats. #Crypto $crypto #cryptocurrency
www.tradingview.com
LTC: Long Term Bull Theory Ticker: COINBASE:LTCUSD
Timeframe: 1D/2-3 years
Quick LTC long term theory more for me to reference back to. Will also dabble with a long term bear theory even though it scares the living piss out of me.
Short Term: Slightly Bearish
Mid Term: Neutral
Long Term: Bullish Af
Current Market Sentiment: Tired of the FUD, Skiddish Bear
ont/btc analysis (2x signal)I think ont will goes down to the area 0.00070-0.00075 and after that the next rally begins. my target prices are 0.00179 btc and 0.00209 btc. can ont do that? we will see the next week.
P:86
Entry area: 0.00070-0.00075 btc
TP1 : 0.00179 btc
TP2 : 0.00201 btc
Can ont do that?
Just a correction in BTC/USD befor flying to the moonAs the weekly chart shows we have correction to 7800$ where it matches to fibo level of 61.8% and a pullback from previous resistance line.
It is better to have the correction this week not later, due to small distance from resistance line.
P: 9050$
TP: 7800$
5 STEPS TO CHANNEL THE TARGET WAVE 5 USING ELLIOTT WAVESSTEP 1 - Once the 1 wave is completed use Fib Retracement to find out the possible wave 2 level. Usually wave 2 is 0.5 - 0.8 of wave 1. In a uptrend Fib level is close to 0.8 but its the opposite on downtrend
STEP 2- Once the wave 2 is completed use Fib Extension to find out the possible wave 3 level. Usually wave 3 is 1.618 of wave 1 or 2.618 of wave 2.
STEP 3 - Once the wave 3 is completed then you can draw a line to join 1 and 3 and then draw a parallel line on wave 2 to project the wave 4. Usually wave 4 is 0.5 - 0.618 of wave 3
STEP 4 - Once wave 4 is completed then you can draw a line to join wave 2 and 4 and then remove the previously drawn line joining wave 1 and 3
STEP 5 - Then draw a parallel lines from wave 1 and 3 and the 50% trend line of the above parallel lines to project wave 5. Usually wave 5 is 1 or 0.618 of wave 1
Testing New StrategyUsing pivots, Fibonacci and trend lines. Blue boxes are zones. If the price breaks any of the zones, I predict the price to go on that direction once there is confirmation on the hourly chart e.g. engulfing candle. Currently, box has broken for a downtrend. This is just a test and in the future will add in targets and stop losses (but the blue box zones can be an indication of those).
Nasdaq_Indexes_Look into todays action_Shorts considered only. Occasionally I will be slapping together a commentary about the days action on my favorite index and making a point to pickout the best entry of the day. This does not mean I take these entries. I simply point them out.
These posts will be short simple and insightful.
Notice the daily is bearish. We know better than to hold onto long positions.
Over the weekend SPX and DOWJ setup very nice looking sell signals. Market makers know all of us retail traders sat around and thought about how bad we wanted to get short all weekend. So first thing this morning they gave us our fills. NQ pushed lower and stopped out tight long trades and entered silly short orders. Then the market made a substantial move higher only to stop out the retail short traders. Only to stall around lunchtime.
Markets ticked around until 2pm when we finally started showing bearish signals and my plan allowed my to trade with the direction of the daily.
Price broke the lunchtime level and then formed a perfect verification process to confirm we were about to move lower. The market took back all the days gains between 2 and 3:50. Notice the 5 minute chart in the comments below.Cant post the 5 min which truly shows the details of today's move.
What a day. Stay tuned!
If you found this analysis useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated! Disclaimer: Your data may be different. Material is educational only. Trade at your own risk!
XAUUSD - ABCD PatternHow to trade the ABCD pattern
This is an example of a bullish ABCD pattern.
Ideally, Point C should be Fibonacci retracement between 61.8% to 78.6% of the A-B leg.
Point D should be a Fibonacci extension between 127% to 161.8% of the B-C leg.
Stop loss should be below D or previous low.
Take profit can be at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the C-D leg.
Cypher pattern - Good Example #2DISCLAIMER - Your money is not in danger but guaranteed to disappear if you follow my trades. These ideas and trades are mostly for my personal use as a journal, but I try to provide as much value as possible to the community
Cypher patterns supposedly have 80% completion ratio. This one worked flawlessly
X - recent bottom
A - recent top
B - must touch 0.382 fib retracement and close BEFORE 0.618 of X-A. We have 0.455 - GOOD
C - must touch 1.272 fib extension and close BEFORE 1.414 of X-A. We have 1.244 - NOT QUITE. If you are really pedantic with it, you may choose to ignore this one. In my book so far, it worked !
D - nosedive required after C. Buy Entry - 0.786 retracement of X-C
Look at that bounce - pattern could not have worked better (as long as you don't need the 1.272 point to be hit and can settle for a 1.244) The extra volume and RSI cross-over are bonuses. No point to measure - both 382 and 618 targets hit.
Cypher Pattern - Good example #1DISCLAIMER - Your money is not in danger but guaranteed to disappear if you follow my trades. These ideas and trades are mostly for my personal use as a journal, but I try to provide as much value as possible to the community
Cypher patterns supposedly have 80% completion ratio. This one worked flawlessly
X - recent bottom
A - recent top
B - must touch 0.382 fib retracement and close BEFORE 0.618 of X-A. We have 0.463 - GOOD
C - must touch 1.272 fib extension and close BEFORE 1.414 of X-A. We have 1.265 - SORT OF. If you are really pedantic with it, you may choose to ignore this one. In my book, it counts.
D - nosedive required after C. Buy Entry - 0.786 retracement of X-C
The price bounced exactly on the 0.768 retracement level and easily hit the first target, which is 0.382 fib extension. It BARELY missed the 0.618 level depending on how pedantic you are with the charting tools. In fact it hit it but much later.
Cypher Pattern - Bad Example #1DISCLAIMER - Your money is not in danger but guaranteed to disappear if you follow my trades. These ideas and trades are mostly for my personal use as a journal, but I try to provide as much value as possible to the community
Cypher patterns supposedly have 80% completion ratio. This one failed
X - recent bottom
A - recent top
B - must touch 0.382 fib retracement and close BEFORE 0.618 of X-A. We have 0.463 - GOOD
C - must touch 1.272 fib extension and close BEFORE 1.414 of X-A. We have 1.367 - GOOD
D - nosedive required after C. Buy Entry - 0.786 retracement of X-C
We can see the price bounced in that area (the wick being much lower and touching X level. The pattern was close to being correct however the bears were too strong. If you were lucky - you could get a quick scalp.
Do Cyphers only work in sideways markets? Not in Bear/Bull markets?
I'll be following this up with some good Cyphers
Quick notes about Inverted Head and ShouldersHello dear friends,
this is more of a study than a chart.
Here is what i did:
* I sampled 16 IHS that showed over the past year and were visible on the 4hr chart.
* I took in consideration sloppy patterns but ignored the ones that didn't complete or patterns that were too small or too big to discern on the 4hr.
* targets are calculated roughly based on the closest fib as result, some targets have fallen slightly above or below that number.
* By target i mean the peak price that was reached after pattern completion and within the timeframe equal to the time length of the pattern itself, and before reached a lower point than the low tip of the right shoulder
* The outcome post pattern defines what happens after that pattern has reached its target within the calculated timeframe. Lower means the price dropped below the right shoulder lowest point, higher means the price continued climbing higher before any drop
* The way i calculate IHS targets might be a bit unusual, but it works well for me. I calculate the length of the head from its lowest point to the meeting point with the right shoulder. Target calculations are a fib percent of that height.
* Mind you, this is a quick study, nothing bulletproof or scientifically sound.
And here are my key findings:
1. Out of 16, 3 failed, 7 reached 100% or above
2. the average success score is a retrace of 67% of the head size within the time length equal to the time length it took the pattern to form
3. 50% of the time, the price dropped lower than the pattern right shoulder or more after reach the pattern target
Details:
/
a. 50% / lower
b. 61.8% / higher
c. 100% / higher
d. 23.6% / lower
e. 100% / higher
f. 100% / higher
g. 0% / lower
e. 0% / lower
f. 23.6% / higher
g. 100% / lower
h. 78.6% / higher
i. 161% / lower
j. 23.6% / higher
k. 161% / lower
l. 0%/ lower
m. 100% / higher
Again please take these findings with a grain of salt, this is by no mean super accurate and can be prone to error. But as a broad overview, hope you'll find this insightful.
MUE-BTC on 1D - Review how price moves. Mixed signalsReview to see how trade plays out:
Bullish:
- Kumo Edge to Edge
- Previous TK crossover however not as strong as it was below the cloud.
- Kumo cloud is flat...price tends to be attracted to this.
Bearish
- Future kumo cloud is bullish
- Potential double top formation
- Similar pattern back in July when it did drop down before further gains
- Low volume
Buy: 0.00002443
Target: 0.00003160 (Sell 75% and leave rest for Long)
SL: 0.00001986 (below the previous support at psychological 2000 level)
RRR: 2.0
Invest in yourself before invest your moneyIs buy & hold a strategy for penny stocks?
Some says yes, some says no. The answer really depends how skillful the investors are.
In this penny stock example, buy and hold is definitely a poor choice.
A 30% gain in 171 days VS a 255% gain in 80 days.
I pointed out many alert positions. Please move your cursor to the blue spots.
These alerts tell you to think about STOP LOSS to protect your PROFIT.
You may have to develop some technical analysis skills like below:
Left chart
Understand candlesticks pattern
Spot moving averages crossovers
Spot MACD crossover
Apply Fibonacci Retracement
Draw one or more trend line(s)
Right chart
Understand candlesticks pattern
Check S/R levels
Spot Tenkan-sen & Kijun-sen crossovers
Check Chikou-span position
Check price is under cloud
The next step is to develop your mindset:
According to a Stanford Research Institute report, 87.5% of our success in life comes from our attitude, with only 12.5% coming from skill.
If there were only 50 technical analysis methods in the world, then you learnt only 10 of them. You got only 2.5%, a tiny portion of your success. You attitude then will be a massive action that move you forward.
Do you know the power of beliefs? There are many people giving up trading because they cannot handle their negative emotions. I knew you're thinking fear & greed, but you may probably forget some emotions holding you back such as distress, disappointment and discouragement. The more bad news your heard from TV, magazines, and forums, your mind is filled with a lot of negative comments. Why not you go to hang around with positive thinking traders, fully technical analysts in some trading seminars face to face. They will encourage you and sometimes empower you, much better than sharing with your own friends. You must find the way to improve yourself. You must dump the past trading experience in order to absorb professional advice.
Do you have the best place to do your chart analysis? I was telling some of my students “Can you not doing your analysis on a dining table; not analyzing & watching TV at the same time; not Facebook messenging while you are doing day-trades?” You need a FOCUS on what you are trading. Some says trading bitcoins can generate a lot of money, then you jump from your boat into their boat with no understandings their structure and foundation. If you lose, then it is your responsible, not others.
At last I encourage all of the beginners that we are all riding the waves in the many markets (Forex, shares, crypto, indices, futures, options, etc). Therefore, you are not alone. Do not underestimate the negative emotions sometimes engulf someone's lives. As you are not alone, you are in this tradingview family !!
When you make money, share it. Share how you make it win (not by gambling)
When you lose money, share it, too. Share how to make it lose (no excuses).
Be a responsible generous trader you are, find your peak performance, equip your skills to unleash your momentum to success.
The PAST does not equal the FUTURE unless you live there.
Thank you for reading.
All the best