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Fibonacci

USD/JPY 1H ANALYSIS (Bearish trend) price has been in bearish run making lower highs, and lower lows in form of pullbacks. seeing price now making a retracement can give us an opportunity to short this market once identifying a trend continuation off our fibonnacci levels and take profit at the lows where buying demand is identified, leaving stop loss right above previous structure high and manage to be apart of the trend. if by any means the price forms anything out side your plans get out. -self
Education
by neat_trader
For next time: how to spot the reversal, making money as a bear.Fib extensions. Draw a high from the previous high to the bottom of it's real correction (4h retraces to the 20MA, in BTCUSD's case, work.) Now, extend to the current peak. Is it failing to retest the 0.236? Get out, prepare a to buy at the 0.618 if it holds. 0.618 holds? buy but prepare to sell at 0.382. 0.618 fails? try at 1.0 Buy at 1.0 but prepare to sell at 0.618. 0.618 is now resistance? Congratulations, you have a bearish reversal. Feel free to keep playing this game of buying and selling at fib levels and moving averages: if it will drop to 1.618, sell again at 1. Drop to 2.618, sell at 2.0, drop to 3.618, sell at .. well, 2.0 again if it will reach it. otherwise 2.618 If there's signs of a reversal, you can draw a new fib retracement from the top to the newly minted bottom and repeat the same game up the stairs What i'm trying to say is.. Bitcoin isn't done dropping, but that doenst mean there arent any opportunities.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by robertjulius
Elliott Wave: Week of 11/20/17 - Unhappy Thanksgiving?The odds are lining up against the bulls. They may see a holiday cheer with a kiss of 2600 if lucky. However, the pullback from 2597 is incomplete and Bears are preparing for their feast. Continuing last week's issue the pullback is underway for an eventual total of 2-3% from the 2597 peak. Elliott wave count, a Fibonacci level of 1 from the the 2/2016 low, a head and shoulder technical analysis pattern and violation of a lower channel line are all bearish signs for the near term. There is even a case for a harmonic butterfly pattern I've placed here: The Bears will have their time - for now. Happy Thanksgiving and enjoy the holiday.
TVC:SPXEducation
by iamthewolf
PRO-GAP Tutorial PRO-GAP Tutorial Today is Monday and GBPAUD formed a PRO-GAP Definition of pro gap is: the gaps' direction is the opposite of the last candle's direction. We can see Last Friday's closing price was 1.6793 and this morning's opening price was 1.6849 which means all the sellers who sold in the last candle were trapped. Therefore a good trading plan was developed: wait for price to pull back and buy it actually pulled back into the last candle's opening price. and it is also a 0.618 level. Buy from 1.6814, SL 1.6790 and the result is almost 7 times Reward/Risk Ratio
Education
by tntsunrise
20
Fibonacci channel swing tradingThanks to Fibonacci we have many tools helping with everyday analysis. Fibonacci channel is one of them. It is a simple tool which can cover whole swing and when used properly can find a lot of possible places for PA to bounce and create small intraday swings. Educate, practice and trade with Fibonacci cause this math algo is everywhere. In single atom, in plants, in our bodies and minds, in piramids, in our solar system and in galaxies. So it is also present in Forex. Even if forex is played mostly by computer algos those algos were writteln by humans so fibonacci is also in that code. Good luck and have a good weekend.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Mario_PLN
10
Follow the Trend, My Strategy!This is my trading plan. You can look through my published ideas to look at other examples. I need 3 reasons to enter a trade. 1. A clear direction. I use 3 emas 50, 100, and 200 as shown in the chart.(Required) 2. A horizontal support/resistance area. (Required) 3. Price retrace to one of the emas to act as resistance. (preferably than fib) 4. Fib continuation 0.382, 0.5, or 0.618 level. Placing a stop loss. My target for stop loss is between 10-25 pips. I place my stop loss behind the horizontal and/or the next ema. My target price is always 2 times more pips than I risk. ---------------------------- I trade between 15 pairs, and on 30 minute time frame. One reason is to counter F.o.m.o trading(Fear of missing out). Counters Revenge trading because my trade size is smaller, and the opportunities are endless. Counters Gambler's Fallacy because I require 3 reasons to enter a trade, I don't enter a trade and expect to win after losing 3 times in a row, I place a trade based on my strategy. I'm still trying to evolve as a trader, as you can see that throughout my published ideas.
Education
by PavelKarakay
Fibonacci News Trade Strategy GU 15 m LongThis news strategy lets the wind die down from the price reaction of the news. You have time to place your fib on the news candle and watch the retracement develop. Price has had time to pick a direction from the markets reaction to the news. Sometimes to catch the best price for the retracement you will be using a 1m or 5m chart. SL is easy to see and place. TP is really up to your discretion. 10 pips or more. We have many different strategies to learn on our blog and we are constantly coming out with new strategies for traders to learn every week. Visit us below on the website, Twitter or Facebook.
Education
by Tradingstrategyguides
Some thoughts on pattern recognition and correction waves:After seeing several charts on this site, I've noticed some common mistakes; re-tracement levels, pattern recognition, wave counts, and, trend-lines, along with, channel formation cover a lot of them. Some thoughts: Re-tracements / Projections don't always conform to 0.62 /1.62 ratios. Think about it. Is a 62% re-tracement really bullish? 38% and 50% re-tracement and projections are important too. Pattern recognition - SHS & W or WV tops and bottoms can be, and often are, subjective. The S sometimes becomes a V and vice-versa. Regardless, both have 'neck-lines' and a pattern only materializes after it is complete. A complete pattern requires revisiting the 'neck-line' and a 'bouncing-off' (usually with volume) to count as a 'pattern'. Remember, since prices often are fractal in nature, there may be patterns within patterns and using them, and their projections, can be a good way to understand price movement. Finally, failed patterns have equal importance as completed patterns, but, with the opposite indication. Wave-count - EW counts, to those that practice them, are somewhere between voodoo and gospel. They are difficult once you get into real-time trading. But some useful tips are as follows: 1) Charting an SMA and hiding everything else is a good way to view waves. Candlesticks, and their variations, can sometimes confuse the wave count because each 'red' candle is viewed in a certain way; diametrically opposite of each green candle. The eyes, and hence the mind, because of bias, can, and will, play tricks on you. 2) Wave 3 per-rule cannot be the smallest wave. 3) Extensions alternate between wave counts. 4) When an instrument moves from $7 to $400 in a matter of months, not using a log-scale, exaggerates higher price movements. Given that scale is important to EW analysis, price movement from $7-$14 (100%) at the bottom looks like 7% when the price moves from $100-$107 or 3.5% when price moves from $200-207. Trend-lines - Most practitioners I know follow the 3-touch principle of establishing trend-lines (and channels for that matter). Remember that consistency is important. Simply connecting 'highs' and 'lows' isn't necessarily the only way. Some ppl use closing prices, others use a combination of the two approaches. Trend-lines and channels change when switching scales so if you switch scales you will need to redraw them. A trend-line / channel that has 3 or more 'touches' is significant and can usually be relied upon to act as support / resistance. What is a break? Good question. You have to decide what that is. Is it an hourly close? A daily close? You have to decide, but then, stick with it. Change the definition in-between trades, but not during them :) Support and Resistance - These should be considered more like guidelines than hard rules. Often price forms patterns, in and around, these zones. Price doesn't simply bounce off a level (unless you're applying the 3-touch principle). Imagine if that were the case. Everyone would know about a 62% level and people would realize that not everyone can get in and out at the same price. So they obviously will change the expectations around that level. Some may be happy with 60%, others with 55%, and some third group may even be extra bullish / bearish and try and sneak in an extra %, here and there, at 65% And while patterns are fractal and levels created from different scales often intersect, there may be different trades being executed based on different patterns and timelines. If behavior is thought along these lines, then it is obvious pattern formation will take place at the zone of these levels and hence one needs to understand when a zone is breached. A final thought on volume. Volume analysis is almost as important as price-movement analysis, if not more. I've reached my word limit :) Note: The attached chart isn't meant to be bullish / bearish. I've simply tried to illustrate the above.
Education
by maximegalon55
EURUSD weekly Fibonacci levels for long term view and trading EURUSD is adhering or responding to the Fibonacci levels all most all of the times. When trader wants to ride the trend this much information is enough to enter and exit trades. We are not trying to forecast the direction or the top/bottom. We are trying to identify important zones in which price may turn in Future. Price patterns like double top or bottoms or many other patterns can be used along with Fibonacci. I have mentioned few on chart. Going ahead we can look for shorting opportunity near level 1 of Fibonacci and long near 1.27. Price may stop and turn(as expected) or continue up or down movement from mentioned levels. To avoid such scenarios where price continues the move instead of reversing, we need to take help of price structure and candlestick patterns. Many traders msg me about how Fibonacci doesn't work, I recommend them all to stop using Fibonacci and use the tool in which you believe. As a trader our job is not to criticize any tool or method of analysis. Our target needs to be "designing trade plan which works for us". No tool works independently in my experience, we always need to club different tools and use them collectively.
Education
by dhananjay.d.joshi
A smooth Fibonacci Channel XAUUSD for BeginnersI still remembered my coach told me to find the evidence of any reversal signals and notice the change of price action on each individual bars. I labelled herewith a higher high (HH) to show an uptrend formation. When we want to LONG, we look for any evidences to show many HH, and later the price action breaks the red down-trend line in this case (yellow spot). This is that simple . Our target is to look for any pivots or consolidation to take our first profit. Then do another analysis separately. If you want a longer run for your profit, Fibonacci is your friend. Simply apply a Fibonacci Channel correctly, you will know where the exit is. Each time when we are at the end of phase 2 of an uptrend. We are preparing two-way setups. Methods: The bigger arrows in green and red, labelled as an UP (U) and DOWN (D). If your LONG setup is triggered (a confirmed breakout maybe higher than resistance levels, and also price actions with many HH evidence), then you cancel your SHORT order. If your SHORT setup is triggered (a confirmed breakout maybe lower than support levels, and also price actions with many LL evidence), then you cancel your LONG order
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by SoloTraderAU
Why Fibonacci is your friend in trading stock or ForexThis is a 60 min time frame, indicators required: Stochastic oscillator with parameter 8,3,3 8 EMA & 20 EMA When to buy if you missed the boat of EMA crossover on 16-Jun Mind Read: 1) Any Fibonacci Retracement Level? Answer: 23.6%, 38.2% (=S1) 2) Wait for reversal signal (black up arrow), did it close above 8 EMA? Answer: Yes 3) Stochastic (8,3,3) shows price convergence 4) LONG during phase 1 When to sell ? (Reverse Thinking) Retracement level from 5-Jun 15:00 to 20-Jun 13:00 was 23.6%, then I project another Fibonacci Retracement (grey colour) to let its 38.2% overlap to old one. Therefore I will expect the highest price will reach somewhere near $0.938. By confirming this is the highest price, I draw two parallel orange trend lines. $0.938 is trapped. Risk: Stop-loss to be considered near S1 ($0.78), about 6%
BEducation
by SoloTraderAU
[Tips] High-Probability Trade with Fibonacci Retracement How To Use Fibonacci Retracement to find High-Probability Trade Setup Brief Definition: Fibonacci retracement is a very popular tool among technical traders and is based on the key numbers identified by mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci in the thirteenth century. In technical analysis, Fibonacci retracement is created by taking two extreme points (usually a major High and Low) on a chart and dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%, and 100%. Once these levels are identified, horizontal lines are drawn and used to identify possible support and resistance levels. These ratios seem to play an important role in the financial market and can be used to determine critical points that cause price to reverse. The direction of the prior trend is likely to continue once the price has retraced to one of the ratios listed above. Tips for Effective Setup: 1. Analyze the general overview (big picture) of price movement to the current trend. In the above example, blue vertical line divides chart into 2 section, Downtrend on the left and Uptrend on the right. We can use MA200 to identify the overall trend. 2. Look at the price movement carefully and then draw Fibo Ret from the extreme pivot points. For Downtrend, drag 100% level from previous High to 0% level at the newly formed Low. For Uptrend, drag 100% level from previous Low to 0% level at the newly formed High. 3. Pay attention to the price movement to the opposite direction of the general trend. Wait for any price rejection to the same direction with the general trend at one of the Fibo Ret level. Entry zone which quite popular are 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% level. 4. Probability of success will increased if price rejection occurs at the confluence of Support and Resistance levels. ie. confluence of one Fibo Ret level with Support / Resistance area, Trendline, or Chart Pattern. The point is, more confluences are taking places, probability of success for price rejection at Fibo Ret level is higher. Few Examples: Example 1 - 3 for Downtrend case (MA200 sloping down) Example 4 - 5 for Uptrend case (MA200 sloping up) 1. (Normal Retracement) Price reversed to the opposite direction of the trend and rejected down from around Fibo Ret 50%. The downtrend continuation after price rejection tend to be normal and not too deep. 2. (Higher Probability Retracement) Price reversed to the opposite direction of the trend and rejected down from the confluence of 2 resistance: Fibo Ret 23.6% and Resistance Area 110.648-110.771. The downtrend continuation after price rejection tend to be quite deep. 3. (Highest Probability Retracement) Price reversed to the opposite direction of the trend and rejected down from the confluence of 3 resistance: Fibo Ret 61.8%, Major Down Trendline (diagonal red line), and Resistance Area 110.275-110.346. The downtrend continuation after price rejection tend to be very deep. 4. (Higher Probability Retracement) Price reversed to the opposite direction of the trend and rejected up from the confluence of 2 support: Fibo Ret 38.2% and Support Area 110.648-110.771. The uptrend continuation after price rejection tend to be quite high. 5. (Normal Retracement) Price reversed to the opposite direction of the trend and rejected up from around Fibo Ret 61.8%. The uptrend continuation after price rejection tend to be normal and not too high. Happy Trading...
Education
by arieg1985
1
SPY & VIX _ How to find key support using 75% retracementPlease refer to the other charts I have produced on this methodology. It takes a long time to put these charts together and then to explain them for clarity for you. Let's start from the beginning: 1. VIX is a measure of volatility of S&P500 options. If volatility rises, buyers of options are driving up options prices aggressively relative to weaker sellers. 2. Almost all the time aggressive option buying occurs when stock prices are falling. 3. Once VIX has risen 5 points, look for VIX to fall by 75% of its recent low to high move. Once that happens, we can mark that level as KEY SUPPORT because that is where BUYERS came into the market to accumulate stock. It could also be where short sellers are buying to cover shorts. 4. What we want to see is SUPPORT to hold on any subsequent setbacks. You can scroll back to see other examples of this phenomenon and come to the realization that this is the process by which you can read market action and VIX together to determine key support. 5. Notice what happened in November, then twice in December: BUYING WAVES didn't hold the market. So, we can assume these are Weak Buyers and from the looks of it, the market moved down and stopped these buyers out. Keep a close eye on these KEY HIDDEN LEVELS and more using the analytical tools I have created here at TradingView. All the best. Tim West 9:33AM EST 1/11/2016 193.29 +1.37 last SPY
AMEX:SPYEducation
by timwest
10
How to Use Fibonacci RetracementsHow to Use Fibonacci Retracements I'm back with another educational post after receiving a lot of requests and today's lesson is on how to use Fibonacci retracements. I've used a recent market example with NZD/USD to break this down for you. Let's get straight into the finer details before breaking down each section of the chart shown. Fibonacci retracement levels are amongst the invisible levels of support and resistance within the market, providing objective price reference points. Essentially where the flow of buying and selling is likely to change. The main Fibonacci retracement levels used are shown below. Fibonacci Ratios 0.382 (Indicating a strong trend) 0.50 0.618 Where can I find the tool? You can find the Fibonacci retracement tool in the chart section by going to your left sidebar, third section down and the icon is three horizontal lines. Upon your first use of this tool, you will want to edit the settings and add in the three ratios stated above if they are not already there, make sure you tick the boxes to use them. How do I use it? To apply the tool on your charts click from high to low to measure the full price swing. OR Draw in your tool from low to high depending on the market situation. Breaking down the charts If you're basing your trades off Fibonacci retracements they work at best in trending markets, but if it's used as a part of your strategy it can be effectively applied to any or most types of markets. Now let's look at the chart for recent examples of price reversals using Fibonacci retracements. If you look at the example on the left-hand side, I measured from high to low and price hit bang on the 0.618 retracement level. Your question right now will be... How did you know it was going to reverse? I personally go off the retracement level that is causing the most activity within the market. Have a look at price history and see what is happening at the particular level, is there a lot of stalling? Is it a key support or resistance level within the market? If so, price will more than likely reverse there in comparison to the other retracement levels. To validate the reversal you will, of course, want to analyse price action, what are the candlesticks telling you? Any signs of indecision or stalling at a certain level will help you make a solid choice whether to take the trade or not. Now let's take a look at the right-hand side, this time I have two examples (again I measured from high to low). You can see from the top example price pulled back to the 0.382 and 0.50 retracement levels not once or twice but three times before dropping. Indicating a very strong resistance level! The bottom example is a similar situation, price spiked up above the 0.50 retracement level (all candlesticks closed below) before heading in the opposite direction. To round of this educational post, I hope you found this extremely useful and you can now use Fibonacci retracements in your own trading. I am available via private message for any questions you may have. Here's to your success!!!
Education
by LewisGlasgow
25
Sell GBPJPY (educational)Sell GBPJPY (educational) "kalbotical retracement confluence 1" 1. Up Trend line broken 2. down Trend line formed 3. second leg has a strongest momentum so possible third leg for some kind of 1-2-3-4-5 structure ) You can catch momentu e.g with Squeeze Momentum Indicator 4. Look left for S/R zone 5 perfect Fib level - .618 6. Kalbot RSI shows the fastRSI line in the overbought area, so there is a possible end of retracement 7. Top predictor (or your mentor) loves this structure too 8. Plan your trade trade with one of possible strategies . e.g countertrendline break ( 9 ) strategy StopLoss 30 pips above U-turn Take profit :- 100 pips (3:1 trade) :- or -0.25 Fibs extension (10) :- or Look left for S/R level (11) 12 trade your plan
Education
by quql
1
My latest Short Term Sell Trade Explained #forex In response for your requests guys to explain the rational behind the live trade we took on GBPCHF. Here is the explanation. On the left hand side daily chart, the price started the bearish behavior on the 78.6 retracement level for the overall bearish wave as shown on chart. As it formed two major bearish shooting star candles. That was not enough for me to initiate the trade so i moved to the lower time frame(4-hour) for the final confirmation. The price has indeed broken back below the prior high at 1.2868 and below the hanging man candle. That was accompanied by bearish divergence on RSI and that assured that the trade is a high probability one. If you were following my updates on the channel, you would know that i put a limit short order as shown on chart. The targets was just reached minutes ago for 157 pips gain. Adding to my account 4.37% gain this month. Best of luck and keep posted.
Education
by Technician
121