Market Overview Part 13Me Going Over My Full Strategy In Deep Detail On The Live Markets And Even Placing Trades In This Video
Fibonacci
Pulse of an Asset ala Fibonacci: ETH at a key Impulse Redux"Impulse" is a surge that creates "Ripples", like a pebble into water.
"Impulse Redux" is returning of wave to the original source of energy.
"Impulse Core" is the zone of maximum energy, in the Golden Pocket.
Are the sellers still there? Enough to absorb the buying power?
Reaction at Impulse is worth observing closely to gauge energy.
Rejection is expected on at least first approach if not several.
Part of my ongoing series to collect examples of my Methodology: (click links below)
Chapter 1: Introduction and numerous Examples
Chapter 2: Detailed views and Wave Analysis
Chapter 3: The Dreaded 9.618: Murderer of Moves
Chapter 4: Impulse Redux: Return to Birth place <= Current Example
Chapter 5: Golden Growth: Parabolic Expansions
Chapter 6: Give me a ping Vasili: one Ping only
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Ordered Chaos
every Wave is born from Impulse,
like a Pebble into Water.
every Pebble bears its own Ripples,
gilded of Ratio Golden.
every Ripple behaves as its forerunner,
setting the Pulse.
each line Gains its Gravity.
each line Tried and Tested.
each line Poised to Reflect.
every Asset Class behaves this way.
every Time Frame displays its ripples.
every Brain Chord rings these rhythms.
He who Understands will be Humble.
He who Grasps will observe the Order.
He who Ignores will behold only Chaos.
Ordered Chaos
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.
.
want to Learn a little More?
can you Spend a few Moments?
click the Links under Related.
The ''Pulse'' of an asset times Fibonacci: Chapter 2Every move in a price chart starts with an ''Impulse'', imagine it like a ''Pebble''.
When the Pebble hits water it creates ''Ripples'' that are captured by the Fib Series.
Each Ripple has equal distances between peaks and troughs, or what I call the ''Pulse''.
Each Line has Gravity.
Each Line must be Tested.
Each Line has a Personality.
Every Asset Class behaves this way.
Every Time Frame shows these ripples.
Every Human Brain is susceptible to them.
This is a followup to my previous tutorial linked below.
That one has gotten very long with so many updates as examples.
PLEASE spend some time on the numerous examples in the first publication below:
Pulse of an Asset via Fibonacci: BTC at A.T.H. Impulse Redux"Impulse" is a surge that creates "Ripples", like a pebble into water.
"Impulse Redux" is returning of wave to the original source of energy.
"Impulse Core" is the zone of maximum energy, in the Golden Pocket.
Are the sellers still there? Enough to absorb the buying power?
Reaction at Impulse is worth observing closely to gauge energy.
Rejection is expected on at least first approach if not several.
Part of my ongoing series to collect examples of my Methodology: (click links below)
Chapter 1: Introduction and numerous Examples
Chapter 2: Detailed views and Wave Analysis
Chapter 3: The Dreaded 9.618: Murderer of Moves
Chapter 4: Impulse Redux: Return to Birth place <= Current Example
Chapter 5: Golden Growth: Parabolic Expansions
Chapter 6: Give me a ping Vasili: one Ping only
.
.
Ordered Chaos
every Wave is born from Impulse,
like a Pebble into Water.
every Pebble bears its own Ripples,
gilded of Ratio Golden.
every Ripple behaves as its forerunner,
setting the Pulse.
each line Gains its Gravity.
each line Tried and Tested.
each line Poised to Reflect.
every Asset Class behaves this way.
every Time Frame displays its ripples.
every Brain Chord rings these rhythms.
He who Understands will be Humble.
He who Grasps will observe the Order.
He who Ignores will behold only Chaos.
Ordered Chaos
.
.
.
want to Learn a little More?
can you Spend a few Moments?
click the Links under Related.
3 Best Fibonacci Tools For Forex Trading
Hey traders,
In this article, we will discuss 3 classic Fibonacci tools you must know for trading different financial markets.
1️⃣ Fibonacci Retracement
Fib.Retracement is my favorite fib.tool. It is aimed to identify strong horizontal support and resistance levels within the impulse leg .
We draw this tool based on the high and low of the impulse (from wick to wick) and it shows us POTENTIALLY strong structure levels determined by Fibonacci numbers .
Common Fib.Retracement levels are: 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786 .
Once one of the levels is reached, wait for a confirmation before you open a trading positions.
Above is the example of an application of a fibonacci retracement tool based on a bearish impulse leg on EURUSD.
2️⃣ Fibonacci Extension
Fib.Extension indicates strong horizontal support and resistance levels beyond the impulse . Similar to Fib.Retracement tool, Fib.Extension is drawn relying on impulse's high and low (from wick to wick) and it shows POTENTIALLY strong structure levels where the consequent impulses may complete based on Fibonacci number.
Common Fib.Extension levels are: 1.272, 1.414, 1.618 .
Once one of the levels is reached, wait for a confirmation before you open a trading positions.
Above is the example of fibonacci extension tool based on USDJPY based on a bullish impulse leg.
3️⃣ Fibonacci Channel
Fib.Channel shows strong vertical supports and resistances (trend lines) within the channel . The tool is drawn based on the trend line of a valid parallel channel (based on wicks) and it shows POTENTIALLY strong trend lines from where the market may retrace .
The trend lines within Fib.Channel rest on 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786 Fib.Levels .
Once one of the levels is reached, wait for a confirmation before you open a trading positions.
Above is the example of a fibonacci channel on USDCHF.
Remember that Fibonacci's are simply tools in a toolbox. In order to use them properly, you need to build a trading system around them, test it and confirm its efficiency.
The ultimate guide on Elliott waves in crypto tradingMost of you have probably heard about Elliott waves and we are sure that you don’t use it in cryptocurrency trading strategy because it’s very complicated and subjective approach. Crypto trading for beginners is very challenging and stressful even without Elliott waves. To be honest when we first time tried to implement it to my crypto trading strategies it was a complete disappointment. We were sure that it does not suit for both trading bot and manual trades. Elliott waves were thrown into a garbage bin for almost two years and we developed our crypto trading algorithm using only linear programming approaches.
While we have been trying to invent the best automated trading bot using only indicators and support and resistance levels, best crypto traders have been successfully using Elliott waves in their analysis. Finally we make a decision to have a deep dive in this popular crypto trading tool and studied in details all available literature. As a result we found that Elliott waves will ruin your trading if you use it without special indicators for confirmation. Now we have 2 years of experience in trading with waves and almost one year ago we implemented them into our algorithmic trading bot. Today we prepared the best ultimate guide ever on Elliott waves using best practices and our unique experience how to use them in developing your own profitable crypto trading strategies. Let’s go!
Why it’s vital to use Elliott waves?
Before answer this question, let me ask another one! Why is important to use map to reach the final destination? I think here is the obvious answer! Talking about Elliott waves it’s almost the same reason. This is the only one approach which gives you a map for a price chart. I think you agree that technical indicators or support and resistance levels will not give you the answer which direction the price will choose. When you have, for example Stochastic Oscillator crossover or RSI oversold area hit you just open long because this is the most common strategy. You buy asset like a blind kitten. We are not criticize this approach, because using proper risk and money management you will earn with almost every strategy, but understanding the Elliott waves concept will dramatically increase your profit even if you combine them with your ordinary strategy. Why it’s happening? The answer is easy, because Elliott waves in the underlying structure of the market. You will be aware when you shall use your signals and when it’s better to skip trade. Now let’s dive into the Elliott waves to understand how to find them on the price chart. In the first part we will give you all needed theory and after that we will show in the real charts how it works.
Elliott waves
In general, Elliott waves concept is pretty easy. All markets are globally moving up with the five waves formations and then show the pullback with at the reactive waves. On the Bitcoin price chart above you can see the most common picture for Elliott waves. We had the bull run which consists of five waves and then was the bear market represented with the ABC correction.
Waves can be divided into two groups: impulsive and reactive. On the bullish phase waves 1, 3 and 5 are impulsive, 2 and 4 reactive. Impulsive waves consists also with five sub waves, while reactive have usually three waves (exception the triangle correction, will be covered later). On the bearish phase we have the opposite situation: waves A and C are impulsive, while wave B is reactive. Now let’s discuss each wave in details.
What will stop every wave in 90% of cases?
Before we will observe the wave it’s very important to understand what are the early signs that current wave is about to be finished. This is really crucial concept because without it almost impossible to use Elliott waves for profitable trading. We need four tools to make sure that our counting is correct. In this article we will not spend to much time for these indicators, we just show you in practice how to use them. These tools are: Awesome Oscillator, Market Facilitation Index (MFI), Fibonacci retracement and extension and Fractals. These four indicators produce five wave’s end conditions.
Divergence with Awesome Oscillator. If you found five sub waves inside any wave and you can see that price set the higher high (or lower low for bearish case), while AO set lower high (or higher low) it’s divergence between wave 3 and 5. This is the most powerful signal that trend is over.
Fractal at the top or bottom. When you see the divergence it’s just the first sign of trend weakness, we need confirmation with the fractal forming at the top or bottom. You can easily find this indicator in TradingView, it will show you all fractals.
MFI squat bar. We will cover MFI in one of the next educational articles, now you just need to know that it has squat state - the last battle between bulls and bears. One of the three top bars will be the squat in 80% of waves end. You can also find this indicator in TradingView.
AO momentum change. Another one confirmation that trend is over is when AO histogram changes color. It’s better to wait three consecutive columns of the other color or when AO will cross back the signal line, 5 period MA of the AO.
Target area. Using Fibonacci extension and retracement we can find the area where the reversal is the most likely. We will show you this targets when talking about waves.
Now you know the five basic rules and we are ready to discuss every wave using this concept.
Wave 1
When the previous trend is over the impulsive wave 1 begins. We can define the wave 1 start only establishing the previous wave end. It could be wave 5, C or E. It does not matter. You just need to apply our five rules: divergence, momentum change, target area, squat bar and fractal. On the chart you can see how in theory wave 1 can be looks like.
Wave 1 always consists of five waves. That’s why we can wait for the same five rules to complete between wave 3 and 5 inside the wave 1. When you anticipate the wave 1 finish you have two options: close trade and re-enter at the wave 2 bottom or hold for the entire cycle.
Wave 2
When wave 1 ends, you will see pull back in wave 2. It’s important to catch wave 2 bottom because wave 3 will bring you a lot of profit. Wave 2 can be classical ABC zigzag, flat or irregular correction. 70% probability it will be ended inside 0.38 and 0.62 Fibonacci retracement range of wave 1, in rare cases it can ends higher or lower. That’s why it’s better t count waves inside wave 2 and do not miss when all five trend killing conditions are met in wave C inside 2.
Wave 3
The most impulsive wave in the entire cycle is obligatory for trading. Here you can have the less risky and the most easy trading. Wave 3 has the great fundamental factors as a price drivers. For example, Bitcoin spot ETF triggered a huge pump recently. Let’s imagine you correctly entered at the wave 2 end. Now we have to define wave 3 targets. The target area using fibonacci extension can be found between 1 and 1.61. This is the most likely case. In crypto it’s very often when waves 3 are extended.
To have the most precise target it’s highly recommended to count waves inside wave 3. Found five waves? Check our favorite trend killing rules to exit a trade at the top. We know it sounds fantastic, but we managed to buy the exact bottom and sell at the top many times, but to be honest, we have never caught the top of the extended wave 3. Need more experience for that.
Wave 4
Wave 4 can be the most complicated because it has a lot of different variants: zigzag, flat, irregular or even triangle. But at the same time in wave 4 we can have the easiest setup. When you predicted wave 3 top, it’s time to setup the target for the wave 4. The most reliable one is between 0.38 and 0.5. This wave is not so rapid as wave 2 and takes much more time (up to 70% of all cycle).
The very important tip here is to look at the price where wave 4 inside wave 3 has been ended. If this level coincides with the 0.38-0.5 zone it can give you much more confidence. We have never made a mistake using this technique. As usual you have to look for the five trend killing rules in wave C inside wave 4 as well.
Another one thing we want to point out. You know the axiom, that wave 4 has not overlap wave 1 top. This rule can be slightly violated and we will show you the case. Don’t pay attention that much to this rule.
Wave 5
Finally we are in wave 5. This is really vital to define it’s top because bear market will follow this wave and can destroy your deposits. The target area for the wave 5 is defined as the distance between wave 1 bottom and wave 3 top, measured from wave 4 bottom. Area between 0.61 of this distance and 1 Fibonacci level is our target. There you have to find trend killing rules as usual but this time for all cycle, not subwaves.
Corrections
The most dangerous place for trading is the correction. From our experience only wave C in zigzag is tradable. You would better to skip corrections and try to catch it’s end. We have four types of corrections, but the most important knowledges is that wave C and E are always consists of five waves. It means you can use the rules how to catch wave 5 end inside these waves.
Zigzag ABC. If wave A consists of 5 waves the most like we will see zigzag. Wait when wave B reach 0.5-0.61 Fibonacci of wave A and be ready to trade in wave C.
Flat. Wave A has 5 waves inside. Waves A, B and C are almost equal to each other.
Irregular. Wave B top is higher that the previous impulsive wave. Wave A consists of 3 waves.
Triangle. Consists of A, B, C, D and E waves. Wave E consists of five waves. Usually occurs inside waves 4 and B of higher degree.
Now you have a theoretical description. It’s time to trade!
''Pulse'' of an asset times Fibonacci: Chapter 4: Impulse ReDuxThis is my 4th Idea or "Chapter" to collect evidence for my theories.
This Chapter is to observe the results of price Returning to Impulse.
I will be adding examples as ongoing "Updates" whenever I spot them.
Impulse = strong continuous force for a limited amount of time.
When there is a return to Impulse, it is a critical zone to watch.
Rejection from, Penetration of, or Traversal through are clues.
In this particular example, there was clear and exact Rejection.
The resulting move followed the same Ripples as original move.
Possible Deduction: the selling power in this Impulse is still 100%.
Please take momen to look at the previous Chapters below.
Original Edition with numerous examples:
Chapter 2 with more advanced exampels:
Chapter 3 to study the 9.618 Extension in particular:
ALSO see the numerous other examples in the "Related Ideas" below.
USDJPY nearing resistance of Fib 127.1% extensionUSDJPY is nearing critical resistance zone level which is 127.1% Fib extension. When a chart enters unchartered territory these Fib levels help us identify supports and resistances.
QUICK GUIDES: Fibonacci SettingHere is a quick guide on how I have my FIB RETRACEMENT TOOL set up with Retracement & Extension levels.
From Leonardo to Trading: The Evolution of Fibonacci LevelsIn the labyrinthine landscape of financial markets, where volatility reigns supreme and uncertainty lurks around every corner, traders seek reliable navigational tools to steer through the tumultuous waters of price movements. Among the myriad techniques at their disposal, Fibonacci analysis emerges as a stalwart companion, offering a nuanced understanding of market dynamics rooted in mathematical precision. In this comprehensive exploration, we delve deep into the multifaceted realm of Fibonacci levels, unraveling their historical significance, evolutionary trajectory, practical applications, and the diverse perspectives that shape their interpretation.
Tracing the Roots:
To appreciate the profound impact of Fibonacci analysis on modern trading methodologies, a journey back in time to the 13th century is warranted. It was during this epoch that Leonardo of Pisa, known colloquially as Fibonacci, unveiled a numerical sequence that would transcend mathematical realms and find profound resonance in the domain of financial markets. Beginning with 0 and 1, each subsequent number in the sequence is the sum of the two preceding ones, laying the groundwork for a sophisticated understanding of market movements rooted in the natural order of mathematics.
Evolution in Financial Analysis:
While Fibonacci himself might not have envisaged the application of his sequence in financial markets, the 20th century witnessed a paradigm shift as visionaries such as Ralph Elliott and Robert Prechter pioneered its integration into trading methodologies. Elliott's Wave Theory, with its emphasis on repeating patterns and sequences, forged an intriguing connection with Fibonacci numbers, laying the groundwork for a symbiotic relationship between mathematical principles and market analysis. This union catalyzed a renaissance in technical analysis, ushering in an era where Fibonacci levels became indispensable tools in the arsenal of traders worldwide.
Unveiling Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
At the heart of Fibonacci analysis lies the concept of retracement levels, a cornerstone of technical analysis that echoes the natural order observed in the Fibonacci sequence. These levels, including 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%, serve as pivotal markers in identifying potential zones of price reversal, offering traders valuable insights into market sentiment and trend dynamics. By applying the Fibonacci retracement tool to significant highs and lows, traders gain a nuanced understanding of market psychology, discerning the underlying rhythm of price movements amidst the chaos of market fluctuations.
Venturing into Fibonacci Extension Levels:
Beyond retracement levels, Fibonacci extension levels offer a panoramic vista into the future trajectory of price movements, illuminating the path for traders seeking to navigate the complexities of trending markets. With extensions such as 161.8%, 261.8%, and 423.6%, traders can delineate potential targets for price continuation after a correction, harnessing the mathematical harmony inherent in the Golden Ratio to set profit targets and manage risk effectively. These extension levels, rooted in the timeless principles of Fibonacci analysis, serve as guiding beacons for traders navigating the ever-shifting tides of financial markets.
Practical Applications and Precautions:
While Fibonacci levels furnish traders with a potent framework for analysis, it is essential to exercise caution and supplement Fibonacci analysis with corroborating indicators and risk management strategies. By integrating tools such as Moving Averages, Relative Strength Index, and candlestick patterns, traders can enhance the robustness of their trading decisions, mitigating the inherent uncertainties of financial markets and maximizing the efficacy of Fibonacci analysis.
A Tapestry of Perspectives:
As we reflect on the journey of Fibonacci levels through the annals of financial history, we encounter a tapestry of perspectives that weave together to form a rich tapestry of knowledge and insight. From Larry Pesavento's exploration of harmonic price patterns to Philip Carret's pioneering work in long-term investing, the legacy of Fibonacci continues to inspire and guide traders in their quest for market mastery. These diverse perspectives underscore the enduring relevance of Fibonacci analysis in an ever-changing landscape, reaffirming its status as a timeless ally in the pursuit of profit and prosperity.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, the comprehensive exploration of Fibonacci analysis reveals its enduring significance as a cornerstone of technical analysis in financial markets. From its humble origins in the mathematical treatises of Leonardo of Pisa to its integration into modern trading methodologies, Fibonacci analysis embodies the timeless principles of mathematical harmony and market psychology. As traders navigate the labyrinthine paths of price movements, they find solace in the elegant simplicity of Fibonacci analysis, a steadfast companion in their quest for success amidst the ever-shifting currents of financial markets.
Thank you for reading! I hope this article proves to be interesting for all of you!
How to use Fibonacci Retracement ⁉️‼️ Forex traders use Fibonacci retracements to pinpoint where to place orders for market entry, taking profits and stop-loss orders. Fibonacci levels are commonly used in forex trading to identify and trade off support and resistance levels. After a significant price movement up or down, the new support and resistance levels are often at or near these trend lines . Usually the price retracts to 50% or until OTE (0.62, 0.705, 0.79) before another impulse movement occurs.
Powerful Fibonacci Trading Strategy For Beginners
I am going to reveal a powerful fibonacci trading strategy that I learned many years ago. It combines structure analysis, fibonacci retracement and extension levels and candlestick analysis.
Step 1
Find a trending market - the market that is trading in a bullish or in a bearish trend on a daily time frame.
AUDUSD is trading in a bullish trend on a daily.
Step 2
Execute structure analysis - identify key horizontal and vertical structures on a daily time frame.
Take a look at key structures that I spotted on AUDUSD.
Step 3
Draw fibonacci retracement levels.
Here are the important ratios you should look for: 382, 50, 618, 786.
In a bearish trend,
draw fibonacci retracement levels from the high of the trend to current low based on wicks.
In a bullish trend,
You should apply fibonacci retracement from the low of the trend to a current high based on wicks.
Take a look how I draw the retracement levels,
I took the low of the trend and the high of the trend.
Step 4
Find confluence.
Look for fibonacci numbers that match - lie within key structures that you identified.
Support 1 matches with 382 retracement.
Support 2 matches with 786 retracement.
Remove other ratios from the chart.
Step 5
Wait for a test of one of the fibonacci levels that match with key structure
The price perfectly tested 382 retracement level.
Step 6
Wait for a confirmation on a 4h time frame.
Our confirmation will be a formation of an engulfing candle - a strong candle that completely engulfs the entire range of a previous candle with its body.
In a bearish trend, we will look for a formation of a bearish engulfing candle. Bearish engulfing candle indicates a strong selling pressure and the strength of the sellers.
In a bullish trend, we will look for a bullish engulfing candle. It indicates a strong buying reaction and imbalance.
Have a look at a bullish engulfing candle that was formed on AUDUSD on a 4H time frame after a test of 382 retracement.
Step 7
Open a trading position, set stop loss and choose the target.
After you spotted an engulfing candle, open a trading position.
Open short after a formation of a bearish engulfing candle and open long after a formation of a bullish engulfing candle.
If you sell, your safest stop loss will be 1.272 extension of the last bullish impulse on a 4H.
If you buy, your stop loss will be 1.272 extension of the last bearish impulse on a 4H.
In our example, our stop loss will be 1.272 extension of a bearish impulse leg on a 4H time frame. The extension is based on high and low of the impulse.
If you short, your take profit will be the closest key structure support on a daily.
If you buy, your take profit will be the closes key structure resistance on a daily.
Here is our take profit level.
Being applied properly, the strategy should generate 60%+ winning rate.
Always remember to check your reward to risk ratio before you open the trade. It should be at least 1.1/1.
Also, before you place a trade, always make sure that you trade WITH the trend and take only trend-following trades.
The strategy works perfectly on Forex, Gold, Silver, Oil, Indexes.
Good luck in your trading.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
A Comprehensive Guide to Fibonacci Retracements (Updated)Hello traders, in this post, we will be going over one of the most commonly used tools in all asset classes - the "Fibonacci Retracement" (or Fib for short). For a better viewing experience, please view this on your desktop/PC, as the mobile and tablet versions of the charts are harder to read.
Although I have briefly touched on how to use the Fibonacci Retracement tool in my previous Elliott Waves series, we are now going to go over it in depth, and talk about how this tool can help you find entries and exits within an existing trend with or without the use of the Elliott Wave Theory, which also helps identify whether you are in a bullish or bearish trend.
The Fibonacci Retracement tool, although widely used by many traders, is almost always not correctly used by new traders. Most traders will often connect the wrong points, indicating the wrong Fibonacci retracement levels. Here, I will be explaining the proper way to use the Fibonacci Retracement tool in a very simple translated friendly guide in one post.
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What Is the Fibonacci Retracement?
Fibonacci Retracements (Fib(s) for short), are a set of 'ratios', defined by mathematically important Fibonacci sequence. This allows traders to identify key levels of support and resistances for price action. Unlike other indicators, Fibonacci retracements are FIXED, making them very easy to interpret. When combined with additional indicators, Fibs can be used to identify potential entry and exit points with high probability to trade on trending movements. Fibonacci retracements are used to indicate levels of support and resistance for a stock’s price. Although they are similar to moving averages in this respect, Fibonacci retracements are set by the extent of the previous bullish or bearish run and do not change each day in the current trend as moving averages do. Therefore, it can be significantly easier to identify and anticipate support and resistance levels from Fibonacci sequences.
How Is the Fibonacci Retracement Calculated? (You don't need to calculate it yourself - It's already done for you!)
Fibonacci retracements are based on what is known as the 'Fibonacci sequence', where each number in the sequence can be added to the previous number to produce the following number within the sequence. Now, you might be confused here, but don't! - I am just explaining the concept on how it's calculated. You do not need to personally calculate the actual sequence of the Fibonacci Retracement, as everything is already pre-determined and calculated within the tool itself on TradingView. To put it simply, dividing any number in the sequence by the following number yields 1.6180 – known as the "Golden Ratio" – while dividing any number by its predecessor yields 0.6180. Dividing any number in the sequence by two positions in advance yields 0.382, while dividing any number by a number three positions in advance yields 0.236. These ratios originated from the Fibonacci sequence are found throughout nature, mathematics, and architecture - such as flowers, buildings, and so forth. Yes, if you search for Fibonacci sequence examples, you can find these within daily uses, not only in trading.
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Retracement levels for an asset are drawn based on the prior bearish or bullish movement. Don't forget this - you need to know whether you are in a bullish or bearish trend. Is the stock or coin going up? or down? To plot the retracements, draw a trendline from the low to the high (also known as the swing low to the swing high), or vice versa, high to low, within a continuous price movement trend – Fibonacci retracement levels should be placed at 61.80%, 38.20%, and 23.60% of the height of the line for you by the tool itself. Again, these numbers are already calculated for you within the tool itself. In a bullish trend, the retracement lines start from the top of the movement (i.e. the 23.60% line is closest to the top of the movement), whereas in a bearish movement the retracements are calculated from the bottom of the movement (i.e. the 23.60% line is closest to the bottom of the movement).
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How to Trade Using the Fibonacci Retracement
Once you have drawn a set of Fibonacci retracements on a chart of your liking, it is possible to anticipate potential reversal points where support or resistance will be encountered. If the retracements are based on a bullish trend, the retracements should indicate potential support levels where a downtrend will reverse bullishly. So to put it simply, the pre-determined Fibonacci levels, should in theory and practicality, act as support if in a bullish trend, and resistance in a bearish trend.
There will always be some form of price reaction at each Fibonacci level just based on Market Psychology. If the retracements are based on a bearish movement, the retracements should indicate potential resistance levels where a rebound will be reversed bearishly, which is vice-versa for the bullish movement trend.
The most common reversals based on Fibonacci retracement levels occur at the 38.20%, 50%, and 61.80% levels (50% comes not from the Fibonacci sequence, but from the theory that on average, stocks retrace half of their prior movements - so this is considered a 'psychological level'). Although retracements do occur at the 23.60% line, these are less frequent and require close attention since they occur relatively quickly after the start of a reversal. In general, retracement lines can be considered stronger support and resistance levels when they coincide with the overall trend, meaning, that if you know that you are in an established bullish or bearish trend, you will most certainly get some form of reaction at the most common reversal levels within the Fibonacci level, which is shown in the image below.
Whenever applying Fibonacci retracements, keep in mind that retracement lines represent only potential support and resistance levels, they are NOT 100% set in stone – they represent price levels at which to be alert, rather than hard buy and sell signals; however, they have HIGH PROBABILITY. It is important to use additional indicators, in particular MACD, to identify when support or resistance is actually being encountered and a reversal is likely. The more that additional indicators are pointing towards a reversal, the more likely one is to occur. Also note that failed reversals, especially at the 38.20% and 50% retracement levels, are common.
Bitcoin - Probabilistic MapSince traders are literally made of particles, it's vital to know the principles of their behavior in micro scale. Some people even use planetary cycles to implement into charting. But I believe the answer is deep in quantum world of probabilities - the fabric of reality itself.
Reference to Quantum Mechanics
The universe itself prohibits 100% prediction accuracy. This is called Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, and it's the fundamental building blocks of Quantum Mechanics. In order to predict particles behavior, all you need are just 2 quantities/data/features:
1) Position of the particle
2) Momentum of the particles.
If you know it's position and it's momentum, you can easily predict it's trajectory. So if you have position and momentum data of all particles in the universe, and you have unlimited computational power, you can predict their behavior (interaction, movement, etc.), and basically predict the future (stock market, weather, natural disaster, etc).
However, the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle states that it is impossible to collect information of particles's position and momentum with 100% certainty. The more certain you know about particle's position, the less certain it's momentum" and vice versa.
So if somehow with the unlimited computational power you can predict particle's position at time with 100% accuracy, then your prediction error for its velocity will be infinity, which prevent you for making accurate further predictions, rendering your model useless.
Hence, it's theoretically impossible to make 100% accurate prediction even with unlimited data and unlimited computational power.
So Is The Universe deterministic or probabilistic?
100% prediction accuracy also means the universe is deterministic - there's only one possible outcome of the future. Einstein was on this side, citing "God doesn't play with dice". On the other hand, folks like Heisenberg, Max Born, Schrodinger, Oppenheimer, etc.., the founding fathers of Quantum Mechanics, viewed the future as set of possible outcomes each having it's own probability.
Since market couldn't care less about anyone's subjective forecasts, I do predictions solely based on historic price dynamics in macro scale to stay objective and true with the market pulse rather than be bared with my endless interpretations of patterns. I don't need my consciousness to interpret because we already have a data derived from collective consciousnesses to work with. Chart is already a reflection of reality that captures the emotions of participants. In other words, it's a time fractal that exposes the essence of the market across timeframes. In turn the market itself is a function of trading time . These basis justify linking systematic fragments of cycles to work out the capacity of price action. Basically in Fractal Analysis, the question is how can direct metrics of the historic waves geometrically explain current and future price levels.
The Fibonacci sequence is a mathematical concept that appears in various aspects of nature. This connection between mathematics and the natural world is a fascinating example of how patterns and structures found in abstract concepts like numbers can manifest in physical reality . Particularly, using Golden Ratio as a key rule that governs order in chaos.
In TradingView, the "Fibonacci Channels" is a great tool to capture the waves (domestic certainty) and turn them into a probabilistic interconnected structure that captures the uncertainty of the market - the entanglement of price action.
To start with it's vital to use log scale where percentages are equally captured in distances. So a 100% a growth, say a vertical distance from $40 to $80 measures the same distance as from $1000 to $2000. Besides, percentages are what drives people to feel emotions which affect market behavior (collective executions). Finding geometric relationship between waves, the use of log scale is a must.
As I've done this before I want to show how market deviates near fibs.
A Direction of 2013 HIGH ⇨ 2017 HIGH with bottom of 2011 gives next bottom 2015 at 0.618 after -86% drop.
And also predicts the COVID bottom in 2019 after -72% drop as well as current level where price has cooled down locally.
We can note that previous ATHs are explained with logarithmic curve.
That's why we'd need another fib channel to connect 2017 HIGH ⇨ 2021 HIGH direction with previous bottom of -86% drop in 2015. FC of that direction predicts bottoms of 2018 (-84%) and covid 2019 (-72%) at 0.618 again.
Together they produce an interference pattern covers significant historic price changes.
To further interpret current levels though the chart itself, we can use line with angle of direction connecting 2021 double tops:
This shows the capacity of how high the market might still grow before next significant correction, if the local fib to the price hasn't yet dimmed the bullish incentive.
Another straight line can be used to connect 2019 COVID LOW (-72%) with 2022 LOW, because we might probably never see such price levels in the nearest future as price has broken out with high rate of change.
Now it needs more time and bearish capacity to go there. This line can indicate the bottom of hypothetical correction, if it happens now. Other than that it's a clear trendline with almost 4Y wavelength.
Since straight lines doesn't exist in nature, I didn't extend them to the right. Now we need a more adaptive version of it to connect recent local bottoms of the trend.
That would be a logarithmic trendline, in other words curves to mimic the function of exponential growth. Therefore falling below it, might indicate a possibility of correction and even reversal. Each day if it fails to grow with the curve, the bears will get depleted. A cross below the logarithmic curve of spreading information would be a confirmation of new bearish incentive. This is simply done to work out boundaries as limits of the function that explains the market.
Corrective wave has a timing of 15 days in respect to its domestic volatility properties, before it becomes bearish impulsive or continues the impulsive bullish wave.
Curves as a function of trading time explain pretty much all historic bullrun growths.
As if there is some kind of gravity that governs the trend or it's the PriceTime that curves with the emerging trend.
Individual cycles can be too curved accordingly.
So the more the price fails to break out that function, the more predictive curve becomes.
How to trade the Fibonacci indicator in 2024Today, we’ll start with what Fibonacci is and how to use it to spot significant market turning points.
Let’s start with...
A short story about Fibonacci
In 13th century Italy, lived a man named Leonardo Pisano – one of the greatest mathematicians of all time.
Leonardo (also known as Fibonacci), learnt all about Arabic and Indian mathematics during his travels in North Africa and around the Mediterranean regions.
Each time he travelled to a new place, he kept noticing a consistent pattern that repeated itself throughout nature.
The sequence he defined was as follows.
0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144…
Basically, all you do is take the last two numbers and add them up to get the next number.
0 + 1 = 1
1 + 1 = 2
1 + 2 = 3
2 + 3 = 5
3 + 5 = 8
8 + 5 = 13
And so on…
Fibonacci first contrived this pattern through a pair of breeding rabbits but he then saw this pattern throughout nature - in the breeding of honeybees , the shape of seashells as well as plants.
This sequence also applies to trading and investing charts and is called the Fibonacci Retracement indicator.
The Fibonacci Retracement indicator is used to help identify possible support and resistance levels for any market.
The idea is all high liquid markets tend to move, to and retrace back, to certain levels after a big price move.
The indicator is used to calculate the ratios and percentages using the Fibonacci sequence.
Let’s look at an example with the South African JSE ALSI 40.
Fibonacci on the JSE ALSI 40
Looking at the above daily chart of the JSE ALSI 40, you can see the index has fallen from a Swing High point of (100%) at 70,522 down to a Swing Low point (0%) to 65,386.
On your platform, when you add the Fibonacci Retracement tool onto your chart, you'll drag it from the swing high to the swing low price of the uptrend to see six main horizontal fib lines present themselves:
Fib line #1: 100% (Swing high)
Fib line #2: 61.8%
Fib line #3: 50%
Fib line #4: 38.2%
Fib line #5: 23.6%
Fib line #6: 0% (Swing low)
Traders use these lines to establish and identify supports (floor) and resistances (ceiling) levels.
And with these levels you’ll be able to spot good entry, stop loss and take profit price levels.
Once you draw the Swing High and Swing Low on the JSE ALSI 40, the Fibonacci lines will be plotted on the chart.
You would also have seen the market then went to one of the high points at 61.80% at 68,560.
The price then retraced back to the 23.6% level at 66,598.
So you can see where we are going with this.
As a reversal trader, you could have sold (gone short) the index around 68,560 and held it until it hit the 66,598 line at 23/6%.
That’s where you would have banked a gain just by waiting for the market to bounce off a fib line.
That’s a good introduction and a different way for you to trade and use the Fibonacci Retracement tool with your trading in 2024.
Let me know if this was helpful!
5 Elements of the Best Key Level in Trading
What are the best key levels to trade?
Last year I analysed more than 1500 key structures on Forex, Gold, Crypto and Indexes.
In the today's article, I prepared for you a list of 5 elements of a perfect support and resistance for trading.
As always, remember that the best key levels are always on a daily time frame. So all the structures that we will discuss will be strictly on a daily.
Also, all the structures that I analyzed and traded are available on my TradingView page, so you can back test them by your own.
1. Clear historical significance
The structure that you spotted should act as a significant historical support or resistance.
Here are the important historical support and resistance that I spotted on USDCAD on a daily time frame.
2. Psychological significance
The structure that you identified should match with round numbers.
All the structures that we spotted on USDCAD match with psychological numbers.
3. Confluence with other technical tools
The best structure should align with other trading tools such as trend lines of Fibonacci levels, strengthening its significance.
After adding fibonacci levels and a significant falling trend line on the chart, the confluence was found in Resistance 6, Resistance 3, Resistance 2, Resistance 1, Support 2. Other structure does not match with technical tolls.
4. Volume
The level experiences high trading volumes, indicating strong participation and interest from market participants, especially smart money.
All the structures that we underlined show significant volume spikes. By volume spike, I mean a volume being higher than the average volume - a blue curve on volume.
5. Multiple touches
The more, the better. There are numerous instances where price has respected and reacted to the structure, confirming its strength (at least 2).
Only these 3 structures were confirmed by the multiple touches. These resistances will be considered the strongest ones.
That checklist will help you to identify the most significant structures from where you will be able to catch impulsive movement and make nice profits.
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Mastering Fibonacci Retracement :Navigating Bitcoin's VolatilityMastering Fibonacci Retracement :Navigating Bitcoin's Volatility
Navigating the volatile landscape of Bitcoin trading can be a daunting task for both novice and experienced traders alike. However, equipped with the right tools, traders can identify potential support and resistance levels, make informed decisions, and capitalize on market movements. One such tool that has stood the test of time is the Fibonacci retracement tool, a staple in the arsenal of many traders due to its uncanny ability to forecast potential price reversals with remarkable accuracy.
Understanding Fibonacci Retracement
Fibonacci retracement is based on the idea that markets will retrace a predictable portion of a move, after which they will continue to move in the original direction. The concept draws from the Fibonacci sequence, a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, and so on). In trading, these numbers are translated into percentage levels that traders use to identify potential reversal points on price charts.
Key Levels to Watch
The most commonly used Fibonacci retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. These percentages represent potential support and resistance levels where the price of an asset like Bitcoin could experience a reversal or consolidation. The 61.8% level, often referred to as the "golden ratio," is particularly noteworthy for its reliability in predicting price movements.
Applying Fibonacci to Bitcoin Trading
When applying Fibonacci retracement levels to Bitcoin's price action, traders often look for significant highs and lows to place their retracement lines. From there, the tool provides a visual representation of potential areas where the price may stall or reverse. For instance, during a downtrend, a retracement to a higher Fibonacci level like 61.8% could indicate a potential area of resistance where traders might consider taking profits or entering short positions.
The Significance of the 78.6% Level
Recent discussions among traders have highlighted the 78.6% retracement level as a crucial point for Bitcoin, suggesting that reaching this level often precedes significant corrections. This phenomenon underscores the importance of Fibonacci levels in anticipating market movements, allowing traders to adjust their strategies accordingly.
Real-world Application
Consider Bitcoin's historic rally and subsequent corrections. Traders have observed that significant pullbacks often align with key Fibonacci levels. For example, during a bullish phase, if Bitcoin's price retraces to the 61.8% or 78.6% levels before bouncing back, this could be seen as a strong signal for trend continuation.
Conclusion
The Fibonacci retracement tool is more than just a mathematical curiosity; it's a reflection of human psychology and market sentiment. By identifying levels where price action may change direction, traders can make more informed decisions, manage risk more effectively, and potentially increase their chances of success in the market.
As with any trading tool, it's important to use Fibonacci retracements in conjunction with other indicators and analysis methods to validate potential trading signals. Remember, no tool can predict market movements with absolute certainty, but by understanding the tendencies and patterns, traders can navigate the Bitcoin market with greater confidence. BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P
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AUD JPY Swing Buys Ask Me Live ($9K Banked)"Explore the intricacies of Forex trading with a focus on the AUD/JPY Buy Swing Position in my latest video - 'AUD JPY Fibonacci Entries Unveiled (Forex Trading).' 📈💹 Join me on a journey through the market nuances as I delve into the specific details of Fibonacci entries for this strategic swing position.
In this comprehensive guide, I unveil the power of Fibonacci retracement levels in navigating the AUD/JPY market. Discover the secrets to identifying optimal entry points and enhancing your trading precision. Whether you're a seasoned trader seeking advanced strategies or a beginner aiming to grasp the fundamentals, this video is tailored to elevate your trading game.
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Taking the Guesswork Out of Take Profit: A Fibonacci Approach
In the world of trading, one of the most influential factors that can either make or break a trader is the mind. How often have we found ourselves saying, "I should have done this" or "I would have done that" after a trade has unfolded? Yet, when we were in the heat of the moment, those seemingly obvious solutions never crossed our minds. To overcome this common pitfall and make more calculated decisions when it comes to setting take profit levels, we can turn to the Fibonacci tool.
Utilizing Fibonacci retracement levels can help traders establish mechanical and consistent take profit points. This is especially crucial for mechanical traders who rely on predetermined parameters for their trading strategies. Let's delve into how you can use Fibonacci step by step to set your take profit levels, taking into consideration a buying scenario (though the process remains the same for selling, but in reverse).
**Step 1: Add -0.272 and -0.618 Levels to Your Fibonacci Tool**
Begin by adding the -0.272 and -0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels to your Fibonacci tool. These negative levels will be instrumental in creating mechanical take profit points.
**Step 2: Place Your Fibonacci Tool from Low to High**
Next, take your Fibonacci tool and place it from the low point to the high point of the relative price movement you're analyzing. This essentially helps you identify potential retracement levels within the price action.
**Step 3: Identify Negative Levels**
As you apply the Fibonacci tool, you'll notice the negative levels (-0.272 and -0.618) on your chart. These levels will suggest specific price points that you can consider for setting your take profit. Interestingly, you'll often find that prices tend to react near these negative Fibonacci levels because they represent strong psychological levels in the market.
By following these steps, you can establish a mechanical and objective approach to determine your take profit levels. This approach not only reduces the influence of emotions in your trading decisions but also provides you with a systematic way to lock in profits. Remember that while the example here focuses on buying, the process remains the same for selling, with the Fibonacci levels adjusted accordingly.
Incorporating Fibonacci retracement levels into your trading strategy can be a game-changer, helping you trade with greater discipline and consistency. The key is to trust the numbers and your predetermined plan, allowing you to make more informed trading decisions and ultimately enhance your overall trading performance.
Navigating the Markets with Fibonacci ChannelsToday we delve into the fascinating world of Fibonacci Channels, a powerful tool for traders looking to identify potential non-horizontal support and resistance levels in the market.
Throughout the video, we provide a step-by-step guide on how to place Fibonacci Channels on price charts, allowing you to visualize and understand their significance in identifying key price levels. We also showcase real-world examples to demonstrate how Fibonacci Channels can be used to find points of interest, such as trend reversals and price targets.
Furthermore, we discuss the integration of Fibonacci Channels with other technical indicators, providing insights into how this combination can enhance your trading strategy. By the end of this video, you will have a comprehensive understanding of Fibonacci Channels and the ability to confidently incorporate them into your trading approach. Get ready to unlock the potential of Fibonacci Channels and take your trading skills to the next level!
of Fibonacci RetracementsIn this article, we delve into the intricacies of the Springboard Effect of Fibonacci Retracements , drawing parallels between the trading world and the physics of a springboard.
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The Springboard Analogy:
Imagine a scenario with four different springboards, each with varying degrees of stiffness. Now, drop an identical weight from the same height onto each board. The resulting bounce illustrates the concept of retracement and extension in the context of momentum trading.
Barely Any Springs (0.236 Retracement):
A bounce at the 0.236 retracement level is seen as a potential trend failure. Buyers may step in, but the bounce is likely weak. Traders shift focus to shorter-term scalping opportunities, targeting other fib levels within the retracement as potential resistance.
Few Springs (0.328 Retracement):
Here, the bounce on the 0.328% retracement is viewed with caution. While a good bounce may occur, traders remain vigilant about a potential double top, closely monitoring candlestick reactions and utilizing the CCI to identify divergence if momentum falters.
Moderate Springs (0.5 Retracement):
A bounce at the 0.5 retracement level signifies continued bullish momentum. Buyers are willing to enter at a relatively lower point, maintaining optimism. Targeting the 1.272 extension, traders consider this a bullish signal. Aligning with nearby resistance or front-running the level becomes a strategic move.
Lots of Springs (0.618 Retracement):
This scenario represents a strong market extension. A bounce at the 38.2% retracement level indicates a plethora of buyers eager to enter the market promptly. This serves as a positive sign, suggesting a robust extension. The target? The 1.618 extension, potentially aligned with a nearby resistance level.
The Springboard Effect provides traders with a tangible framework for interpreting retracements and anticipating market extensions. By aligning retracement levels with the stiffness of a springboard, traders gain insights into the potential strength or weakness of a continuation. Whether aiming for robust extensions or preparing for short-term scalps, understanding the nuances of the Springboard Effect adds value to a trader's toolkit.
Embrace this strategy, and may your trades be propelled to new heights.
Fibonacci Retracement StrategiesFibonacci retracements are a cornerstone in the toolkit of many traders, offering a mathematical approach to identifying potential areas where reversals may occur. This article delves into the intricacies of using Fibonacci retracements, covering everything from basic understanding to strategies involving other indicators. Read on to gain insights into how to effectively incorporate these levels into your trading strategy.
What Are Fibonacci Retracements?
Fibonacci retracements are a popular technical analysis tool used to identify potential support and resistance levels on a chart. Developed around the concept of the Fibonacci sequence—a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones—the Fibonacci indicator applies this mathematical formula to financial markets.
Key retracement levels are often considered at 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% of a price move. The 61.8% level, in particular, is frequently referred to as the Fibonacci retracement golden ratio, owing to its significance in both nature and financial markets. Traders commonly use these areas to anticipate where the price may reverse, thus providing strategic entry and exit points.
Fibonacci Retracements: How to Use Them
Using the Fibonacci tool for trading begins with identifying a significant swing, either an uptrend or a downtrend, on the chart. The tool is then applied at the swing low and swing high of the price movement. In an uptrend, it starts at the swing low and ends at the swing high; in a downtrend, it's the opposite. This action plots horizontal lines at the key Fibonacci levels, providing potential areas where price could reverse.
Concerning the Fibonacci retracement time frame, it's essential to know that this tool can be applied across various time frames—from one-minute charts to monthly charts. However, the reliability of the retracement levels often increases on higher time frames. That means those plotted on daily or weekly charts generally offer stronger support or resistance compared to those on shorter time frames.
Strategies Using Fibonacci Retracements
In trading, combining Fibonacci retracements with other technical indicators can significantly enhance decision-making. Below are three distinct strategies that utilise these retracements in conjunction with other tools to identify high-probability trade setups.
To see how they work, consider following along in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. There, you’ll gain access to over 1,200 trading tools—including the ones featured in this article.
Fibonacci Retracement with Moving Average Crossover
In this Fibonacci trading strategy, traders combine Fibonacci retracements with two Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) set to 9 and 12 periods to pinpoint entry and exit points. After identifying a trend, either bullish or bearish, they apply the retracement tool to gauge potential reversal zones. Specifically, the focus is on the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% retracement levels. If the price reacts at any of these zones—potentially confirmed by a bullish or bearish candlestick pattern—the next step is to observe the EMA indicators.
Entry
Traders often watch for a moving average crossover in the direction of the existing trend as an indication of potential entry.
Stop Loss
Stop losses may be placed above or below the nearest swing high or low. Alternatively, some opt for setting it beyond the next level, including 23.6% or 78.6%.
Take Profit
Profits are typically taken at the high or low of the retracement zone where the price initially reacted.
Fibonacci Retracement with Stochastic Oscillator
In this Fibonacci retracement strategy, the initial setup is similar to the one involving moving averages: traders identify a prevailing trend and apply Fibonacci retracements to find possible reversal zones at 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. The twist here is the use of the Stochastic Oscillator, a momentum indicator that ranges between 0 and 100. The oscillator helps identify overbought or oversold conditions when the price reaches these areas.
Entry
Traders generally look for the Stochastic Oscillator to exceed 80 (overbought) or drop below 20 (oversold) when the price reaches one of these Fibonacci zones. The entry signal often comes when the oscillator crosses back below 80 or above 20 after a reaction.
Stop Loss
Stop losses can be situated either above or below the closest swing high or swing low. Some traders may also choose to place it beyond an adjacent level, such as 23.6% or 78.6%.
Take Profit
Take profits are commonly located at the level where the price first exhibited a reaction, be it a high or a low.
50% Fibonacci Retracement Strategy
The 50% Fibonacci retracement strategy is a lower risk-to-reward approach but one that’s simple. Unlike other strategies that utilise multiple Fibonacci levels or additional indicators, this method zeroes in on the 50% mark as the focal point for entry, making it straightforward for traders. The 50% point specifically plays into the idea of mean reversion, which states that the price is likely to return to its average over time; however, traders can choose 38.2% or 61.8% areas if preferred.
Entry
Traders typically look to enter a position when the price reaches and reacts from the 50% retracement level, aiming to ride an existing trend.
Stop Loss
Due to the wider scope of this strategy, stop losses are usually set beyond the high or low of the entire Fibonacci retracement, offering a buffer against potential volatility.
Take Profit
Traders often opt to take profits at key support or resistance areas that offer at least a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio. Alternatively, one may choose to forgo setting a take profit and instead trail a stop loss above or below new swing points that develop.
The Bottom Line
In summary, understanding and applying Fibonacci retracements can enhance your trading strategies, especially when used in conjunction with other technical indicators. These retracement levels offer high-probability zones where price might reverse, creating potential entry and exit points. If you're looking to implement a Fibonacci forex strategy in a secure, low-cost trading environment, consider opening an FXOpen account to access over 50 currency pairs and a comprehensive range of trading resources.
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