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Fibonacci

USD SHOULD FALL IN LINE WITH 30YR GOVERNMENT BONDSThe bond market is a place where traders can gauge the strength or weakness of a currency. Typically when looking at the US 30YR Government Bonds, if the price of the bonds increases it tells us that traders are willing to invest into the US economy for the long term. This then should show that the USD is likely to increase in price. If the price of the bonds decrease it tells us that traders are unwilling to invest in the US economy for the long-term and that we should expect the price of the USD to fall. Currently, the 30YR Bonds are struggling to increase any higher and we could likely see a fall in price back to the highs in May. This tells us that the USD could fall lower in the coming weeks. Keep an eye out for this correlation and try looking at the past history using the compare tool here on TradingView.
TVC:US30YEducation
by peterthinkhuge
Idea contains educational and backtest about my trading methodTriangles are drawn to define areas where the price will usually remains when buyers and sellers agrees on the price. Buying at the bottom and selling at the top is a good idea but these are not the best entries and too risk. You'll have better odds of a successful trade when buying or selling the breakout of that triangle. Breakout system GREEN rectangles = buy RED rectangles = SELL points NOTE : for educational purposes only You are fully responsible for any investment decisions you make. Such decisions should be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, etc
Education
by choerchoop
1
A 100 pip short based on a support-to-resistance flipFirst of all, this is the ICT Breaker concept from ICT (Inner Circle Trader) on YouTube, all credit goes to him. I've outlined a nice example of this strategy in the chart. I use this a lot and it's really simple to understand and notice once you catch a few of them. I'd love to see you try to find more examples. Feel free to post them in the comments and we can discuss them! Things to look for: - Same concept applies for longs, but inverse. - The candle block you're using must precede a move that takes out a previous swing point (low or high). - If the price does retrace to that block as you expect, but starts consolidating and pushes back into it repeatedly, it could be a sign that it wants to move back through it. The market is sometimes tricky like that. Also, here's a bonus confluence factor - if you pull the fib retrace tool from the top to the bottom of the move, you can see that our block falls right between .62 and .79 fib levels. This is another good indicator to confirm your bias.
Education
by UnknownUnicorn3664665
4
[DXY] How to use Fibonacci IndicatorHi guys ! This a simple chart with a explicit Fibonacci Indicator. Many people asking me how to use it, it's easy, have a look. Story : Fibonacci was an Italian mathematician (1175 - 1250). He discovered this number sequence like this: Each numbers is calculated by adding the two previous numbers, for exemple : 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89... The special thing in this sequence is that every numbers is 1.618 of previous and 0,618 of next one. And as you know, 1,618 is the "Gold number" . (Hope my english is not too bad haha) 1 - Choose a higher and lower price (downtrend) or lower and higher price (uptrend) 2 - Fibonacci will retrace different line at 23.6, 38.2, 50, 61.8, 78.6 and 100 % 3 - Theses line will be the next supports / resistances in the correction / bounce You can use it to place the best order (BUY or SELL) and make more profit. Ask me for any questions ! Thanks for your time.
TVC:DXYEducation
by AnthoXBT
Bitcoin - Sacred GeometryMade for observation and study purposes. This is one of the most fascinating charts I have ever created. Markets are geometric in design and function, therefore, I always tend to stick with geometric principles and not limit myself to using straight lines only. The following chart - is concentrated on time study. You will be astonished to see it in action. I made it 4 months ago and been closely observing it throughout this period. The law of cause and effect states that every cause has an effect and every effect becomes the cause of something else. Every action has a reaction or consequence - as I am sure you will agree. It is one of the universal laws and can be applied anywhere. Fibonacci spirals can be used in a wide range of different ways. It is a ratio coded by the same formulas that code anything from the atom, to the biggest cluster of galaxies and anything in between. I have seen many traders in the past who applied Fib spirals in order to identify potential supports / resistances / trends etc by choosing specific extreme data points on the trend. However, there is no concrete theory behind applying Fibonacci spirals , but generally speaking - past “extreme” or important market events is something you gotta look for when applying these. This chart is based on past “extreme” market events which provide us with new data, most importantly where and when the future turning points can be expected. In order to construct this chart, I chose ATH as the point A - (where the golden ratio is emanating out of the center) to be connected with other major events from the past. As the two points are generated - the golden ratio is being increased in width of points along the spiral from the center by multiplying the width by a Fib ratio for every quarter turn. The extent of the spiral then gives us a time frame where the future effect from previous cause can happen (this has been back-tested and the accuracy is impressive). Here are some of the approximate key dates for Bitcoin: 17/11/2018 12/12/2018 20/01/2018
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by SECCommission
2
Support and Resistance Levels with auto Fibonacci Setup TutorialIdentify horizontal support and resistance lines using your choice of 6 methods. Available options Lookback window: Number of bars back to consider in calculations Lookback window right (only applicable for methods 3 and 4): Number of bars to the right to consider in calculations Number of S/R lines to plot: S/R lines to plot (currently the max setting is 4 so 8 lines due to pine limitations. I can post separate scripts for each method that allow more depending on user feedback) Use Custom Time Frame? (M1, M6, M5 only work if viewing lower TF): Set a custom timeframe in minutes, then 1D for daily, 3D for 3 daily etc. Calculation offset: How many of the most recent bars to ignore in the calculations. Update Frequency: How many bars to wait until updating the lines since the last update. Things to tweak. I still need to test the methods, depending on that and feedback I can post separate scripts for each method that allow more depending lines or scrap some. I'll tweak the parameters for using linebreaks to scrap them. Currently required a three close through it (so two in one direction and one in the other). Fibs don't work on the static timeframe as I've reached certain restriction in the coding system. Link to Indicator Below are some examples using the default settings (which I have not optimized as of yet) Method 1 Method 2 Method 3 Method 4 Method 5 Method 6 Referral Links Bitmex 10% fee discount for 6 months www.bitmex.com TradingView (50% off after trial period ends) tradingview.go2cloud.org Tip Jar BTC: 1FgEeDDMF7QKydQPJVCDjp7ypjREp8XG6c LTC: LM9KsXz7GUxCN9g9EjTC8ayviDEmBK14rw
BITFINEX:EOSUSDEducation
by SemiQuant
26
how to identify abcd pattern hey traders, this Monday I want to share with you my thoughts about dollar yen currency pair. As the market has been violated 113 structure level, I anticipate bullish continuation up until at least 114 level. As the market reaches 114 I will be looking for counter trend opportunities. One of them is this potential bearish abcd pattern. It is an easily identifiable pattern. Basically, three steps are required: 1) identify impulse leg (in our case it is a steady movement from 108 to 113) 2) identify retracement (113 to 110) 3) projection of impulse leg from C point(110 - the end of retracement) looking left, and identifying major levels of structure I underlined potential reversal zone where the market is most likely to reverse. When the market will reach this zone I will be looking for some confirmation. Targets are based on structure. Good luck!
Education
by VasilyTrader
BTCUSD- Understanding Structures in the Crypto MarketHi all, I felt compelled to spend quite a bit of time to create what I believe is an incredibly comprehensive guide to understanding the movements of the market. If you're tired of getting burned on every run, then look no further. Let's begin. You might notice a handful of purple and black bars in this chart- their purpose is to designate "structures", or zones of heavy resistance/support. They might take a moment to get a grasp of, but once you understand how to define them, it becomes easy, and you'll be to start predicting where a run will end with scary accuracy. To define a structure, you will essentially want to cover the .5-.618 region of a wave, although since waves rarely retrace exactly in that zone, you may want to expand your structures out a bit to cover wicks and outliers. Anyways, the easiest way to define your structure is simply by recognizing what our trend is. Would you be able to look at a chart and tell me when we've seen a bullish reversal or a bearish reversal? If not, it's quite easy; to spot a bullish reversal, look for a break above the previous high. To spot a bearish reversal, look for a break below the previous low. Obviously terms like "high" or "low" can be quite subjective, as there's a near infinite ways of looking at the charts, but having a bit of some background on Elliot Wave theory, Fibonacci retracements, and reversal candlestick patterns will help you recognize when a reversal is happening. The easiest way to try and find a reversal is by seeking out a definitive high and definitive low, and creating a Fibonacci retracement structure between the two. Let me go into detail a bit further below. If you reference the first picture above the chart, you'll see 3 blue arrows with a Fibonacci and a purple box. This is showing what a bullish trend would look like. To set up this structure, you must determine what your wave of interest is. In this example, we create our points based on the first arrow. In an uptrend, you will start your retracement from the top to the bottom, rather than the bottom to the top. The reason you want to do this is because you are retracing DOWN, so you want your retracement wave to head to the .618 in its respective direction. Anyways, as you can see, the second blue arrow is a retracement wave, and you can see that it touches the .618, ends, and then proceeds to start the third wave. Because we made a bounce off of the .618, we have confirmed continued bullish momentum. if we were to do a convincing close below the .618, this would more than likely indicate that a trend reversal is commencing. Understand that at times, we can be faked out by this, but this is the nature of trading. If you have a good trading strategy, you don't need to worry about losing trades every so often, so it's better to put your faith into something that's quite accurate rather than trade with no strategy in play. To keep in short (pun intended), whenever you are in a downtrend, the opposite applies to that of the uptrend; you will start your retracement from the bottom to the top. The same deal applies with the downtrend as it does the uptrend, in that a rejection of the .618 will most likely point to continued bearishness. Using these bullish and bearish wave structures are incredibly power tools that not only help you minimize losses, but they also give you the confidence to stay in a trade for longer than you might have realized was possible. Remember, if there's no clear signal of a trend change, then the trend will continue. So with these tools in hand, I went through every noticeable wave structure since the 3000 dollar range and determined wave lengths, which can be done by finding .5-.618 regions that appear to have found a lot of activity. For the most part, determining your wave structure will come down to common sense, but it takes a bit of practice to know where a wave starts and where a wave ends. If you look at each structure found in the chart, you'll notice they all start in different positions. I positioned each of them to reflect the date in which they first were established. As you can see, this is an incredibly powerful tool to have at your disposal, because it predicted the top in March, it predicted the top in May, and it predicted the top in July. Something tells me that this has predicted the top in September, too, but I'll let you guys figure that out ;). Additionally, the support structure (bottom purple bar) shows the rejection that we experienced in February, June, and August. I don't want to give too many details about my opinions or thoughts on what we have here, because this is meant to be educational over anything, but I hope that this helps you guys get a better understanding of what makes the market move the way it does. Feel free to message me if you have any questions, and be sure to shoot this a like if you dig what you've read. Happy trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by NickPadovani
2
THE PIN BAR TRADING SETUP EXPLAINED :As the most liquid market in the world, Forex or foreign exchange attracts more and more retail traders. Everyone comes to the market with different expectations but aims for the same thing: to make money. Pin bar trading is a simple, yet effective trading strategy that offers excellent risk-reward ratios. What Makes a Pin Bar? Before more details, we need to explain what a candlestick is. To interpret a candlestick, traders consider the following: - opening price - closing price - the highest value - the lowest value The difference between the opening and closing prices is the body of the candle. Also known as the real body, it is bullish when the closing price is higher than the opening one, and bearish when is lower. The price action to the highest or lowest point is the shadow or the tail. For a pin bar to form, traders look at the real body to be relatively small, and the tail of the candle much longer. In fact, the longer the tail, the better. While not a general rule, savvy traders look for the following condition to happen before pin bar trading: the tail to be so long, so the real body fits at least two times. Conventional wisdom claims that a bullish pin bar must have a green body (closing price bigger than the opening one) and a bearish pin bar a red body (closing price lower than the opening price). The Pin Bar Trading Setup Explained : For a single candle, the pin bar is an impressive reversal pattern. It shows a terrible battle between bulls and bears, signalling that the previous trend weakens. Hence, for a bullish pin bar, a bearish trend must exist. And, a bullish trend is mandatory before a bearish pin bar forms. A pin bar trading strategy when it reverses a bullish trend considers the following steps: - measure the entire length of the pin bar, from the lowest to its highest point - go short when the price breaks the lowest point - place a stop loss order at the highest point in the bearish pin bar - project the length of the pin bar minimum two times below the entry point Sometimes the market reverses so aggressively after a pin bar that the pin bar trading strategy offers a greater risk-reward ratio than 1:2. To make sure they’re not missing the new trend; aggressive traders move the stop at break-even when the price reaches 1:1 rr ratio and trail parts of it as long as possible. Fibonacci Ratios with the Pin Bar Trading Setup Savvy traders have patience, and they know that any reversal pattern shows a conflict. The conflict or the battle between bulls and bears implies the market won’t reverse quickly. After a bullish trend like the one above, bulls won’t give up that easy. That’s the reason why every pin bar trading strategy needs a stop loss. However, a pullback is more than welcomed. In fact, pullbacks often happen after a bullish or bearish pin bar. Fibonacci ratios help in finding an even better risk-reward ratio. Here are the steps to follow on the same bearish pin bar setup: - measure the length of the bar, from its highest to the lowest point - use the Fibonacci Retracement tool for finding the 50% and 61.8% levels - wait for the market to reverse to the defined area - go short with a stop loss at the highs - keep the same take profit as in the original setup This way, traders stay for the same take profit, but with a lower risk. Hence, Fibonacci comes to complement the unique pin bar trading strategy by offering an even greater risk-reward ratio. Not bad for a single-candlestick pattern, right?
TVC:DXYEducation
by asdfghjhhg
1
Educational five wave with a 2.618 extension of wave 3This five wave up has more than the first spot is visible. First of all, we look at the wave itself. All ingredients of the Elliott wave are present here. - Wave two falls within the boundaries of a retracement of 50% - 85.4% of wave one. - Wave three may not be the shortest wave (check). Looking back to wave one, it is clear at that moment that it is actually wave three. * The extended wave three itself is a five wave as well. * An additional point that is clearly visible here is that the extension of this wave is the fibonacci ratio 2.618 of wave 1. - Wave four falls within the boundaries of a retracement of 23,6% - 50% of wave three. - Wave five is 61.8% of wave one till three. * The other rules for wave five that I stick to are: wave 5 is an inverse 123.6 - 161.8% retracement or wave four or wave five has approximately the same length as wave one. What makes this total wave special is the point where it ends. The connection with a higher timeframe that has arise here is beautifully displayed beneath here. This is the reason why I post the analysis here. - On the daily timeframe i have drawn the fibonacci ratio 0.382 from a strong move up, happend between December 2016 and February 2018. The five wave up from above ended at the bottom of the 0.382 retracement (resistance). This analysis i made is to give insight into what can happen, to look back when I discover a similar case. I do not give advice on what someone should do or should imply from this analysis. It is an important reminder for myself on what happened.
Education
by UnknownUnicorn713661
Fibonacci Jones and the Secrets of Mount 61.8Hello and welcome everybody, in this idea i will show you the "magic" of a fibonacci retracement level called "61.8". I will later provide some snapshots to keep my beautiful art-for-the-poors-chart untouched. Stay tuned and enjoy the legacy of Leonardo Fibonacci! Yours sincerely Eddie Sources: Leonardo Fibonacci - en.wikipedia.org Fibonacci Numbers - en.wikipedia.org Fibonacci Retracement - www.investopedia.com Disclaimer: This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by EduardZimmermann
1
Why and when trends failHere, using gold I demonstrated the importance of time analysis. Most of traders analyze only price action in relation to price and most of indicators can do only that. However price need to be analyzed also in relation to time, as price moves in Fibonacci sequences not only in price scale but also in time as you see. And when it hits an important Fibonacci TIME extension, a trend will change direction for hours, months or years depending on timeframe. With these tools you can analyze time action: Fibonacci time extensions Fibonacci time zones Fibonacci arcs Fibonacci circles Fibonacci fans Pitchfork fan Gann fan, Gann angles (to place Gann fan you have to LOCK scale. Then put 45 degree angles. Angle 1-1 has to run by 45 degrees). Gann boxes Cyclical oscillators, CG Oscillators (Center of Gravity as Fisher, Ehler's CG) How to draw Fibonacci Time extensions - traditonally, time cycles are measures from LOWEST LOW to LOWEST LOW. You find 2 lowest lows and drag Fibonacci time extension tool between them and then drag back the third line to the first low where you started. Then you have Fib time extensions from the second lowest low that you connected, into the future. Its important, it has to be absolute lowest low. If you do it on weekly, zoom to daily and place the end on absolute daily low. Fibonacci Time zones. You place 1 on lowest low wig, 2 has to fall on the next candle. Best to do it on daily. 1 candle -1 time zone unit.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDEducation
by ICFX
1
Moving up stop loss in a swing This is a beautiful example of how to move up your stop loss You see an 12345 structure in this photo I started this trade at the bottom of wave 2 and my stop loss was place below the bottom of wave one when we started buy i waiting on the first correction and moved my stop loss at the bottom of wave 4 once price started running i started moving the stop little by little until we reach the top of the wave at the top of the wave I would usually take any other profits besides the original I would move the original position below wave 4 or below 38.2% fib however i closed out of this position because I am expecting a bigger correction this is just a nice example with perfect execution i know some that count the pips and thats how they move their stops but this is just an example you can use as your own or tweak to your liking
Education
by sdailey23
Catch Me If You Can: Breaking Down the Elusive Elliott WaveHere's an explanation why Elliott Waves don't work most of the time, and then sometimes work perfectly. Lets take a closer look at a single impulse wave up and its correction (I'm using 61.8% retracement and wave 3 = 100% of wave 1). You simply can't trade based on that (red dots), here's why. If you treat it as 123 up trend forming (green count), you can't confidently: 1. short at the end of 1 to catch wave 2 because it can go higher (have an extension from 100% to 127.2%, 161.8% and 261.8%) 2. long at the end of 2 to catch wave 3 because it can go lower - from 23.6% to 38.2%, 50% and finally 61.8% and then go up for the up trend 123 - up to 88.6% of wave W in wave X and then go up in Y (if this is X not 2) - and even lower after that, break the start of wave 1 to reverse the trend down 3. short at the end of wave B (red) after a bounce from wave 2 to catch wave C (red), because it can go higher - it can go up from 23.6% to 38.2%, 50% and finally 61.8% of prev swing wave A (red) and then bounce down as zigzag or triangle - it can retrace as wave B (red) in a flat up to 88.6% and then go down still - or it can even be an expanded flat wave B/X and retrace up to 138.2% of wave A (38.2% above the end of wave 1, Sometimes even 61.8%! and only then drop down) - or it will go up in wave 3/Y = 100% of wave 1/W 4. long on breakout of the end of wave 1 to catch wave 3 because it can pullback - it can be wave a of Y or lower degree iii or 3 and immediately pullback in b/iv below wave 1 - it can be an expanded flat wave B/X and retrace from 105% up to 138.2% of wave A (38.2% above the end of wave 1, Sometimes even 61.8%! and then drop down) - it can be a short Y = 61.8% of W in WXY and then go down That's why you are only supposed to buy on a retest of wave 1 after the breakout 5. long at the end of wave C (next bounce from the end of B) (red) because it can go lower - it can become a triangle ABCDE and break the other way - it can still be wave B and go higher up a bit then down in zigzag/flat (same impulse-correction fractal of a lower degree, same options, see #3) - it can break the end of wave 2 and continue down as wave C from 61.8% up to 1.618% of wave A, although we mostly have short C = 61.8% of A in Bitcoin So, on the long side you are left only with 2 not-so-tradable options: - buy above 138% of wave 1 to ride a very small ~10% (100% - wave B retracement - 38%) chunk of wave 3 = 100% of wave 1. However, the expanded flat can still go to 161.8% and wave 3 can end early at 61.8% as wave C/Y. And if not that, this trade probably has a bad R/R and you will pay in fees a lot more that you possibly can gain. - buy on retest of wave 1/A/W in iv/x after the breakout to ride wave 3/C/Y (100% - wave 2/B/X retracement) up to 38.2% in case of an expanded flat or up to 100% of wave 1 in case of wave 3/C. And you can only to the 2nd option on the short side, because usually C = 61.8% of A, not 100%, invalidating the first setup. But guess what, that's called trading breakouts from a range/triangle, and you don't need Elliott Waves for that. Conclusion: I just showed you that in most cases Elliott Waves don't really work, they give you a number of possibilities for both bull/bear cases, not trend direction. You can't trade based only on Elliott Waves and fibs, without using other TA methods. The trend is basically just a sequence of 2 impulses and then comes a wave 4 which can become the 1st impulse down and reverse the trend or go up in wave 5. Waves 3 and 5 are not guaranteed. The only thing guaranteed is a 2nd impulse following the 1st. But in the current market with unclear 3/5 wave structure, low liquidity, hidden bottoms and traps you can't clearly spot even the 1st impulse, so there might not be a 2nd one. Continued Below =>
BEducation
by RagingRocketBull
2
The Golden Pocket Fibonacci like a BossBuying the pull back is always tricky. As a trader we deal with probabilities and try our very best to find high probability trades. We do this by finding confluence and various reasons to add to our trade setup. The Golden Pocket It is my ideal favorite zone to enter a high probability retracement after an impulse wave upwards. It is the 61.8% to 65% zone (highlighted in red). How to trade it i) Find a swing low and swing high points Bullish - Swing Low to Swing High Bearish - Swing High to Swing Low ii) Draw fib extension line iii) Find other confluence reasons to enter the trade besides this e.g. RSI levels, previous support levels. iv) Wait for confirmation of some form of support before considering entering the trade as it can sometimes just tear thru
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by mongacoin
8